Big problems with player development

[cody8200]

Time after time in my fictional league a superstar pitcher will arise when he is only 20 or 21 and time after time they began fading into mediocre/horrible pitchers within only 3 or 4 years. This doesnt make any sense at all. Look at these 2 players cards.

This first one is especially a bad case.

http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dhs54qv_5cpzs7r


http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dhs54qv_4hnxjsm

I have another pitcher on my team that is having this same decline right now.

[Raidergoo]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/woodke02.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/priorma01.shtml

When you find the magic elixir to nurture star pitching, please let me know.

Regards,

Jim Hendry

[cody8200]

Originally Posted by Raidergoo

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/woodke02.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/priorma01.shtml

When you find the magic elixir to nurture star pitching, please let me know.

Regards,

Jim Hendry

Both of which had major injuries, look at skip waddel again (the first player) and you'll see there were none. Look at these three years of stats.

year tm age g gs w l era ip

2005 San Francisco - MLB 19 36 36 25 4 0 2.13 223.2 135 55 53 8 80 248 0 0 0.96 .249 76.8
2006 San Francisco - MLB 20 35 35 21 6 0 1.83 221.1 149 52 45 7 73 236 0 0 1.00 .267 82.1
2007 San Francisco - MLB 21 36 36 25 5 0 2.36 251.2 175 69 66 19 51 224 1 1 0.90 .239 78.3


so at the age of 21 skip already had 3 Cy Youngs. His next season his ratings dropped in half. With that his stats looked like this.

2008 San Francisco - MLB 22 34 34 10 12 0 3.15 217.0 195 83 76 15 65 130 0 0 1.20 .267 49.1

All of this with absolutely no injuries between the year of 25-5 record with a 2.36 and the next year...seems bogus.

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by cody8200

Both of which had major injuries, look at skip waddel again (the first player) and you'll see there were none. Look at these three years of stats.

year tm age g gs w l era ip

2005 San Francisco - MLB 19 36 36 25 4 0 2.13 223.2 135 55 53 8 80 248 0 0 0.96 .249 76.8
2006 San Francisco - MLB 20 35 35 21 6 0 1.83 221.1 149 52 45 7 73 236 0 0 1.00 .267 82.1
2007 San Francisco - MLB 21 36 36 25 5 0 2.36 251.2 175 69 66 19 51 224 1 1 0.90 .239 78.3


so at the age of 21 skip already had 3 Cy Youngs. His next season his ratings dropped in half. With that his stats looked like this.

2008 San Francisco - MLB 22 34 34 10 12 0 3.15 217.0 195 83 76 15 65 130 0 0 1.20 .267 49.1

All of this with absolutely no injuries between the year of 25-5 record with a 2.36 and the next year...seems bogus.

If you ran them inning after inning, pitch after pitch, they racked up pitcher abuse points and imploded.

[Mets Man]

cody8200 your second example "Ben Green",

He hasn't exactly faded off to mediocre/horrible quite yet. I wouldn't consider 3.37 and 3.18 seasons as "horrible".

However Raidergoo, the 2 examples you brought up were both due to injury (Kerry Wood & Mark Prior), I don't know if any injury hit the two pitchers in the above sample cody8200 is showing.

However, you might be able to bring up the case of Dwight "Doc" Gooden.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/goodedw01.shtml

However, I think he may have suffered an injury as well in his career that may have effected his stuff, but I think his career was starting to get worse anyways after a really early peak. Doc had arguably the best first 3 seasons as a pitcher, then after that he started fading (he faded, didn't totally meltdown and become horrible as he still had around mid 3s ERAs, but nowhere near the superstar he was in his first 3 seasons)

I think it really comes down to how often these star pitchers are fading. It shouldn't be too frequent or too predictable to happen. If this is happening to 90% of star pitchers, then there is obviously a problem.

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by Mets Man

However Raidergoo, the 2 examples you brought up were both due to injury (Kerry Wood & Mark Prior), I don't know if any injury hit the two pitchers in the above sample cody8200 is showing.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...and_wood_1.php

Why did they get hurt? Overuse.

[cody8200]

Originally Posted by Mets Man

I think it really comes down to how often these star pitchers are fading. It shouldn't be too frequent or too predictable to happen. If this is happening to 90% of star pitchers, then there is obviously a problem.

I agree. It seems like the case. This league I have played out a 30 year history. I dont have any stats to back it up but it just "feels" wrong. Maybe I'll take a harder look at player histories tonight and see if I can come up with something statistical to back it up. Skip Waddel was obviously the most obvious to me since he had beat me year after year with his dirty Giants. It was kind of dissapointing to see the former 3 time Cy Young 23 year old wasn't the same guy anymore.

[RonCo]

Here are a few more real life examples of guys who started great and faded pretty quickly. That said, I tend to agree with cody's feeling that it happens a lot. That's mostly due to the fundamental approach OOTP takes with regard to talent bumps and hits. At the end of the day, the career curves are fairly realistic, though...even if perhaps a bit harsh in various ways.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/ankieri01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/goodedw01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/valenfe01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/harkemi01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/greento01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/averyst01.shtml

[Mets Man]

Originally Posted by Raidergoo

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...and_wood_1.php

Why did they get hurt? Overuse.

Well, I don't know. I don't think that every pitcher who has pitched 200+ innings in consecutive seasons should necessarily decline. I definitely think overuse should effect some pitchers, but not all. I don't know how OOTP 2007 works, but if overuse automatically leads to decline, I don't think I agree.

Here's an example of a pitcher who you could argue was overused:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml

Here's another:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/maddugr01.shtml

They didn't exactly decline suddenly after multiple 200+ inning seasons.

Some pitchers simply are durable enough to handle the workload. Look at Daisuke Matsuzaka. This guy has had 200 pitch counts per game in several seasons in Japan already and doesn't seem to be showing any wear and tear.

[RonCo]

I note Waddell has been heavily used, and often injured. I knowMarkus has pitcher abuse points baked into the game.

[Mets Man]

Originally Posted by RonCo

Here are a few more real life examples of guys who started great and faded pretty quickly. That said, I tend to agree with cody's feeling that it happens a lot. That's mostly due to the fundamental approach OOTP takes with regard to talent bumps and hits. At the end of the day, the career curves are fairly realistic, though...even if perhaps a bit harsh in various ways.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/ankieri01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/goodedw01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/valenfe01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/harkemi01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/greento01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/averyst01.shtml

Rick Ankiel...... hehe I would hardly say that he had a "peak"

[RonCo]

I agree that heavy work loads should not automatically blow out pitchers, but heavy use as kids should have a greater chance of degradation than heavy use after 27ish.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Mets Man

Rick Ankiel...... hehe I would hardly say that he had a "peak"

An awful lot of pitchers would kill for his 20 yo season.

[Mets Man]

Originally Posted by RonCo

An awful lot of pitchers would kill for his 20 yo season.

Ya that's true. I think Ankiel was one of the most overhyped pitchers of our era. The kid barely had a full season under his belt and they were already crowning him as the next Roger Clemens.

You could add "Oliver Perez" to this list as well:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/perezol01.shtml

Although, his career isn't over yet, he still might have a chance to be good again

I guess you could technically argue the same thing for Ankiel....... btw is he still playing???? (I know he moved to the Outfield awhile back, but never heard about him since)

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Mets Man

You could add "Oliver Perez" to this list as well:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/perezol01.shtml

Although, his career isn't over yet, he still might have a chance to be good again

I'm sure there are many more. Things that "feel" wrong about the game are often not wrong at all. I know, I am constantly proving myself wrong in the process of beta testing.

BTW, the way OOTP's dev engine works, both those pitchers have a chance to get dominant again...though it's a small chance.

[toxicavenger74]

Originally Posted by Mets Man

Ya that's true. I think Ankiel was one of the most overhyped pitchers of our era. The kid barely had a full season under his belt and they were already crowning him as the next Roger Clemens.

You could add "Oliver Perez" to this list as well:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/perezol01.shtml

Although, his career isn't over yet, he still might have a chance to be good again

I guess you could technically argue the same thing for Ankiel....... btw is he still playing???? (I know he moved to the Outfield awhile back, but never heard about him since)

Yeah, he is still playing. He plays for the Triple A Memphis Redbirds. He's a very good athlete and I have heard he is doing well but is injury prone. I haven't checked his numbers myself this year so that is 2nd hand info. He is on the 40 man roster for the Cards.


Edit: Ok, I checked myself and he started out ok but has faded. He has a 0.190 Avg. with 4 Hrs. in 42ab's

[CBL-Commish]

I would expect a player who'd thrown 650 innings by his 22nd birthday to fade quickly. Even though it was a different era, many 19th century pitchers threw huge innings in their teens and early 20s, and almost to a man they were done before they turned 30. Many much earlier than that.

Bob Feller threw an ungodly number of innings as a teenager and had a long career, but he's almost unprecedented in modern baseball history and his arm got a three-and-a-half year break in WWII.

In the 1960s it was common for teenagers and pitchers in their early 20s to throw a lot of innings. Steve Barber peaked very early and by the time he was 30 and a subject of Ball Four he could barely lift his arm. Wally Bunker threw 214 innings at the age of 19 and was basically done by 25.

Sidney Ponson threw more than 500 innings in the three seasons before his 24th birthday. He looks cooked at 30.

If OOTP is going to be historically accurate I'd think 75% or more of players with Skip Waddell's age 19-21 seasons to be done by their mid-20s.

[Cooker]

Originally Posted by RonCo

I note Waddell has been heavily used, and often injured. I knowMarkus has pitcher abuse points baked into the game.

Hey Ronco, this is very interesting. But exactly what are "pitcher abuse points"? What do they do and how/when do they occur? (If it's in the manual, I apologize. I'm at work and the manual isn't on my computer here.)

Thanks.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Cooker

Hey Ronco, this is very interesting. But exactly what are "pitcher abuse points"? What do they do and how/when do they occur? (If it's in the manual, I apologize. I'm at work and the manual isn't on my computer here.)

Thanks.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...?articleid=148

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by Mets Man

Here's an example of a pitcher who you could argue was overused:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml

Here's another:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/maddugr01.shtml

I would argue that 1) they were overused and 2) the reason they are Gods instead of Mario Soto imitators is that they got lucky.