Which Is The Fluke?

Hotwheelz · 10-24-2005, 03:53 AM

Ive got a reliever, Brad Prill, who I used as our close last season. He had a dominant year with 22 saves and a 2.13 ERA in 42.1 IP. Well this season I promoted a young reliever who is rated much, much better and am using him as the closer. Prill started the season as our main setup man but after struggling mightily I rarely use him. At this point he has a 1-5 record and 7.96 ERA.

Yes, I do play every game and while I could understand if he had a slightly higher ERA due to my possible poor management, I just dont understand how he goes from a 2.13 ERA to 7.96 the next year.

His current ratings are 7-9-8 and he is rated good in clutch and normal for consistency.

Jestor · 10-24-2005, 06:44 AM

You're relying on ratings too much.

pat · 10-24-2005, 06:58 AM

Yep, just a bad year, I guess.

Hotwheelz · 10-24-2005, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jestor

You're relying on ratings too much.

No, not really. I was using ratings to show that his first season was pretty much inline with what the game says he is capable of.

If the guy had ratings of 5-6-7 and put up the season he did in 2006, then followed that up with what he is doing in 2007....I would still be concerned. I could understand a jump from 2.13 to something in the 4's, but all the way up to almost 8?

Cooker · 10-24-2005, 11:22 AM

I've seen this kind of thing happen fairly often. I call it the "bad year" syndrome. Occasionally a player with very good ratings will have a truly stinky year (or part of a year).

My 24 year old closer was 2nd in the NL in saves in my 2005 solo league. Basically, he was lights out, ERA under 1.50. His ratings were (and remain) 92 (stuff), 51 (control) and 88 (movement). But when the 2006 season began, he got hammered routinely. In his first four appearances he blew three saves. Eventually I tried moving him to middle relief, but he kept floundering. Finally in mid-May, with an ERA over 10.00, I sent him to AAA to (hopefully) get his rhythm back. He pitched reasonably well in AAA for a couple weeks and so in early June I recalled him. He's been better (ERA now down below 8.00), but nowhere close to his dominant 2005 performance.

Looking strictly at ratings, nothing changed. But I think something in OOTP randomly causes certain players to have "off-years" or very long cold streaks. It's kind of cool if you think about it. It happens in real life. For example, Victor Martinez of the Indians in 2005 had a horrific first half (under .200 through the end of May), but after the all-star break he caught fire and had the highest BA in all of MLB in the second half of the season, winding up over .300 by year-end. So why did Martinez stink April through June? Who knows? It happens to very good players IRL. So it's not surprising occasionally it happens to highly rated players in OOTP, too.

My "solution" is to stick with highly rated players who previously performed well, to wait out their slumps. I also have a CF who had a break-out rookie season in 2005, hitting over .300 with 20 HRs. In 2006 (in early June) he's at .233 with 8 HRs. No drop in ratings. Some of it may be random statistical variation, but I suspect there really is a "bad year" or "cold streak" syndrome in the game itself. But if a player's really good with a history of better performance, ordinarily he'll eventually return to form in my experience.

Just my

Sarcastic · 10-24-2005, 03:49 PM

Also, it seems that, probably because of the smaller sample size, reliever's stats vary a lot from year to year in OOTP. There are very few relievers that are consistently great, both in OOTP and the MLB.

battists · 10-24-2005, 04:27 PM

Sarcastic is right.

Think about it, if he goes through a really tough stretch, has a few 5-run outings, that can run up his ERA pretty quickly. And if he's only pitching a handful of limited innings, even if he throws non-stop shutouts after that, it's tough to bring it back down to respectable.

It's still a stinky year though.

If you have 'em, I'd look through and just try to see if he was consistently bad, or had just a really big slump at some point.

Hotwheelz · 10-24-2005, 04:49 PM

He is consistently bad. I have counted maybe 2-3 decent innings and many of those were with no runners on so they werent all that tough.

endgame · 10-24-2005, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by battists

Sarcastic is right.

Think about it, if he goes through a really tough stretch, has a few 5-run outings, that can run up his ERA pretty quickly. And if he's only pitching a handful of limited innings, even if he throws non-stop shutouts after that, it's tough to bring it back down to respectable.

It's still a stinky year though.

If you have 'em, I'd look through and just try to see if he was consistently bad, or had just a really big slump at some point.

battists is hitting on some good points here. As a rule, the ERA is relatively poor method of evaluting effectiveness of a reliever in many respects. The more accurate stat for evaluation, IMHO, is whether his percentage of IRS changed much at all.

Hotwheelz · 10-24-2005, 05:21 PM

His IRS% in 2006 was 38.5 and this seaso it is 40.

endgame · 10-24-2005, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hotwheelz

His IRS% in 2006 was 38.5 and this seaso it is 40.

On the surface, that's obviously a slight decline. Combine this finding with a comparison of innings pitched, over what time period, how many actual runs impacted and you may, at this point a very subjective element, find it a significant decline. In my judgment, knowing very little about additional factors, it likely is not statistically significant.

The Analysis Boyz around here would be of better assistance assigning parameters with which to properly assess that however.

Hotwheelz · 10-24-2005, 06:15 PM

http://www.asinglemoment.net/emeralds/report/p887.html

There is his player page if anybody would like to take a look.

endgame · 10-24-2005, 06:54 PM

I don't think it's on the html page, but if you could call up his player report in game could you give me his Holds to Date for this year?

HolyCow98 · 10-25-2005, 12:03 AM

I had the reverse happen to me. A guy struggled as a middle man but who is thriving in the closers role.

http://www.ath.ootp-online.com/reports/p72.html

Hotwheelz · 10-25-2005, 12:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by endgame

I don't think it's on the html page, but if you could call up his player report in game could you give me his Holds to Date for this year?

He has 3 holds to date. He had 2 hold last season, which I would guess is just about where it should be since he was the closer.

endgame · 10-25-2005, 12:40 AM

All right. While I'd love to be able to access the logs (I can get to some of the box scores but not all), one thing is very clear to me: the guys cleaning up his messes aren't doing as well as he is cleaning up others. His IRS% is 40 but those he leaves inherited for others to deal with are being dealt with to the tune of almost 60% of them scoring. That's 10 of 17 runs that someone else could have stopped and didn't. Yes, he put them on. But last year, as a closer, he was finishing up -- not waiting for someone to finish for him.

If we totally remove those 10 runs, as one compares a SP ERA to his ERC for instance, reduces his ERA to a 5.15. A bit more tolerable, but still a decline nonetheless. So what else is going on? His HA are way up as a percentage. This is "way" speculation, but if he's being brought in earlier he may be facing hitters who are less tired, that are starters and not subs he might have been facing in later innings, or other factors yet to be defined. I noticed at least 1-2 doubles he gave up with 2 and 3 on. Those are critical hits w/ RBIs. Who knows if he's given up big doubles in the past. Hard to measure that one.

Just some initial thoughts after a review of his html. I'd agree, his performance is not what it was last year. Specifically, he's literally not "holding" the situations given him with any IRS over 30%(imho). But over that number of innings, is it a drastic and worrisome decline? I don't think so.

More later if I think of anything that might matter to you.

10-24-2005, 03:53 AM	#1
Hotwheelz All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 1,620	Which Is The Fluke? Ive got a reliever, Brad Prill, who I used as our close last season. He had a dominant year with 22 saves and a 2.13 ERA in 42.1 IP. Well this season I promoted a young reliever who is rated much, much better and am using him as the closer. Prill started the season as our main setup man but after struggling mightily I rarely use him. At this point he has a 1-5 record and 7.96 ERA. Yes, I do play every game and while I could understand if he had a slightly higher ERA due to my possible poor management, I just dont understand how he goes from a 2.13 ERA to 7.96 the next year. His current ratings are 7-9-8 and he is rated good in clutch and normal for consistency. __________________ "It's a great day for a ballgame; let's play two." Ernie Banks

10-24-2005, 06:58 AM	#3
pat Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Quezon City, Philippines Posts: 2,748	Yep, just a bad year, I guess. __________________ Co-Founder & Technical Director at ExaWeb Corporation, an SEO company in the Philippines. Previous Leagues - Time Warp Baseball / International Federation of Baseball / Professional Baseball Replay League / No Pepper Baseball League / MLB Pro Current OOTP 24 Leagues - Sim Sports Gaming - (2016-Present) Washington Nationals (2016-2022) *2017 Champions Oakland Athletics (2023-Present)

10-24-2005, 04:49 PM	#8
Hotwheelz All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 1,620	He is consistently bad. I have counted maybe 2-3 decent innings and many of those were with no runners on so they werent all that tough. __________________ "It's a great day for a ballgame; let's play two." Ernie Banks

10-24-2005, 05:21 PM	#10
Hotwheelz All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 1,620	His IRS% in 2006 was 38.5 and this seaso it is 40. __________________ "It's a great day for a ballgame; let's play two." Ernie Banks

10-24-2005, 06:15 PM	#12
Hotwheelz All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 1,620	http://www.asinglemoment.net/emeralds/report/p887.html There is his player page if anybody would like to take a look. __________________ "It's a great day for a ballgame; let's play two." Ernie Banks

10-24-2005, 11:22 AM	#5
Cooker All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 592	I've seen this kind of thing happen fairly often. I call it the "bad year" syndrome. Occasionally a player with very good ratings will have a truly stinky year (or part of a year). My 24 year old closer was 2nd in the NL in saves in my 2005 solo league. Basically, he was lights out, ERA under 1.50. His ratings were (and remain) 92 (stuff), 51 (control) and 88 (movement). But when the 2006 season began, he got hammered routinely. In his first four appearances he blew three saves. Eventually I tried moving him to middle relief, but he kept floundering. Finally in mid-May, with an ERA over 10.00, I sent him to AAA to (hopefully) get his rhythm back. He pitched reasonably well in AAA for a couple weeks and so in early June I recalled him. He's been better (ERA now down below 8.00), but nowhere close to his dominant 2005 performance. Looking strictly at ratings, nothing changed. But I think something in OOTP randomly causes certain players to have "off-years" or very long cold streaks. It's kind of cool if you think about it. It happens in real life. For example, Victor Martinez of the Indians in 2005 had a horrific first half (under .200 through the end of May), but after the all-star break he caught fire and had the highest BA in all of MLB in the second half of the season, winding up over .300 by year-end. So why did Martinez stink April through June? Who knows? It happens to very good players IRL. So it's not surprising occasionally it happens to highly rated players in OOTP, too. My "solution" is to stick with highly rated players who previously performed well, to wait out their slumps. I also have a CF who had a break-out rookie season in 2005, hitting over .300 with 20 HRs. In 2006 (in early June) he's at .233 with 8 HRs. No drop in ratings. Some of it may be random statistical variation, but I suspect there really is a "bad year" or "cold streak" syndrome in the game itself. But if a player's really good with a history of better performance, ordinarily he'll eventually return to form in my experience. Just my

10-24-2005, 03:49 PM	#6
Sarcastic Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 36	Also, it seems that, probably because of the smaller sample size, reliever's stats vary a lot from year to year in OOTP. There are very few relievers that are consistently great, both in OOTP and the MLB.

10-24-2005, 04:27 PM	#7
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506	Sarcastic is right. Think about it, if he goes through a really tough stretch, has a few 5-run outings, that can run up his ERA pretty quickly. And if he's only pitching a handful of limited innings, even if he throws non-stop shutouts after that, it's tough to bring it back down to respectable. It's still a stinky year though. If you have 'em, I'd look through and just try to see if he was consistently bad, or had just a really big slump at some point.

10-24-2005, 06:54 PM	#13
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,842	I don't think it's on the html page, but if you could call up his player report in game could you give me his Holds to Date for this year? __________________ "Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett _____________________________________________

10-25-2005, 12:03 AM	#14
HolyCow98 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Douglasville, GA Posts: 2,735	I had the reverse happen to me. A guy struggled as a middle man but who is thriving in the closers role. http://www.ath.ootp-online.com/reports/p72.html __________________ NPBL Enjoying its 60th season Georgia GM

10-25-2005, 12:40 AM	#16
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,842	All right. While I'd love to be able to access the logs (I can get to some of the box scores but not all), one thing is very clear to me: the guys cleaning up his messes aren't doing as well as he is cleaning up others. His IRS% is 40 but those he leaves inherited for others to deal with are being dealt with to the tune of almost 60% of them scoring. That's 10 of 17 runs that someone else could have stopped and didn't. Yes, he put them on. But last year, as a closer, he was finishing up -- not waiting for someone to finish for him. If we totally remove those 10 runs, as one compares a SP ERA to his ERC for instance, reduces his ERA to a 5.15. A bit more tolerable, but still a decline nonetheless. So what else is going on? His HA are way up as a percentage. This is "way" speculation, but if he's being brought in earlier he may be facing hitters who are less tired, that are starters and not subs he might have been facing in later innings, or other factors yet to be defined. I noticed at least 1-2 doubles he gave up with 2 and 3 on. Those are critical hits w/ RBIs. Who knows if he's given up big doubles in the past. Hard to measure that one. Just some initial thoughts after a review of his html. I'd agree, his performance is not what it was last year. Specifically, he's literally not "holding" the situations given him with any IRS over 30%(imho). But over that number of innings, is it a drastic and worrisome decline? I don't think so. More later if I think of anything that might matter to you. __________________ "Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett _____________________________________________ Last edited by endgame; 10-25-2005 at 12:42 AM.