Boston Red Sox 2005-06 Offseason Thread

QuestGAV · 10-21-2005, 12:41 PM

I spent about two hours typing one of these up the other day and by the time I went to post it I had been logged out and no amount of back button pressing could get it out. Since I wasn't sure if I needed to scream, cry, or throw things I decided to just walk away before the university stuck me with a bill for the monitor I threw out the window. Now that I'm safely at home with my own computer I guess I'll give it another shot.

Last year was an interesting year, but looking back I think all of us should have been able to see that repeating was simply not going to be possible. The difference between last year's team and any other Red Sox team I remember is the presence of two aces among the starting pitching staff. This year, with Pedro gone and Schilling much less effective, there were none. That's simply not something that can be compensated for, regardless of the effectiveness of the offense. Everything else, including the bullpen woes, were secondary to the lack of consistently excellent starting pitching. Of course, the question becomes: can this team have even a single ace next year? That looks like a tall order for Theo. They don't grow on trees.

Starting pitching:
I'm of the opinion that Schilling is done as a dominant starter. He may be an effective starter, but he'll never again be the dominant starter that led this team (along with Pedro) to the World Series victory last year. His BB/H/HR per 9 were all way up, much of which can be attributed to injury, but some has to be attributed to age. And can all of the injury loss be compensated for? I'm not sure. He'll be in the rotation next year, but he'll have a tough time meeting expectations despite being two years off the bloody sock.

David Wells and Tim Wakefield. Two guys who gave you exactly what you should have expected and should again next year. Wells has made 30+ starts four years in a row now. Wakefield has made at least 30 appearances in each of the last ten seasons, with some of them coming as a reliever. Both will be a year older but I don't see any reason to expect significantly less than what the Sox got this year.

Matt Clement. What a frustrating year for him. He too essentially gave what should be expected from his career numbers, but it always felt like he should be doing much better and at times he was. I like Clement and hope he can bring it all together, but the guy is 30 and I'm not sure expecting leaps and bounds in production is realistic. Clement is not an ace nor a horse but he probably was the best option among the FA pitchers last year for the Sox.

Bronson Arroyo will probably be relegated to the bullpen next year, but you have to consider the production you've gotten out of him the past two years to be essentially gravy. He's the perfect guy to count on as an effective longman who can step in when the inevitable injuries to the starters occur.

AJ Burnett and Kevin Millwood look like the only reasonable options on the FA market. Burnett's numbers don't look all that different from Clement's to me. The only difference is that he's young and I'm going to have to assume he'll want more money. Is Burnett worth Pedro money? Is Millwood worth Clement money? I'd hesitate on both accounts.

I have a man crush on Jon Papelbon. He's our best hope for a stud at the front of the rotation and I think there's reason to believe he'll keep developing in that direction. He's not Pedro, or even Schilling at his apex, but he's a guy who should eat alot of innings and be a very effective starter for a long time. The other prospects like Anibal Sanchez and Jon Lester look intriguing but I don't think it's fair to expect them to play a role next year. Having Papelbon, Lester, and Sanchez anchor the rotation in 2007 would be pretty sweet though.

Relief pitching:

The second achilles heel of this team last year. I think one of the problems with having a big payroll is that you end up paying big money to mediocre relief pitchers based on a good year or two. I have no proof, but I'd be willing to bet relief pitcher performance is a spot at which there's less consistency than most positions from year to year. If there's less consistency and you're paying for past production you end up choking out the arms that you need to develop yourself in order to have the kind of bullpen that you see in Anaheim or Minnesota. I think the Sox have finally developed some of those strong young arms and it's time to put them to use. No more mediocre veterans making solid money in the pen! Let the young guys sink or swim, invest the cash elsewhere where the return potential is higher.

Is Foulke done in Boston? His contract says he's not, but his demeanor makes it tough to bring him back. Clearly a devastating year for him both professionally and personally. If they can unload him without having to absorb the majority of the contract I think they can and should. But who is going to take him at that price? I could see Foulke coming back and getting a shot to rebuild his own value so they can get rid of him without having to take pennies on the dollar.

I think you have to bring Timlin back, even though he's pushing 40 and just had one of the best years of his career. He provided great stability at the back of the pen through the Schilling and Foulke problems and should be able to do something comparable next year. I wouldn't mind seeing Myers or Bradford back at the right price.

Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen should absolutely be playing big roles in the bullpen out of spring training next year. Lenny Dinardo should get a shot as well. Not only should they be on the roster, Tito needs to put them into actual games too.

Catcher:

Jason Varitek is slightly overpaid now and will be massively overpaid by the end of his contract. That being said he's put up a WARP of over 6 three years in a row as a catcher and once you add in all the intangibles he's one of the reasons this team is successful. There just aren't many catchers out there that have that level of consistency.

Doug Mirabelli regressed back towards his career numbers this year, but that's not particularly surprising. He's a backup catcher, what do you want?

I'm not as big a fanboy of Kelly Shoppach as some people. He should be an ideal backup by the time Varitek is done as an everyday player is this really who we want catching 120 games/year? If they can get a package of real value for him they should. Catching is of course hard to come by, but what can you really expect him to contribute to this team in the next 2 years?

First base:

Clearly, Millar is gone. Olerud is probably gone too. I don't think you can sell Petagine as an everday 1b to Red Sox nation. What's available here? In the absence of a decent first baseman on the market, I'd like to see Youkilis plugged in here every day. I'm not sold on Youk's defense at third and he's proved he needs 500+ AB next year.

Second base
A tough decision here. Do you sign/resign a caretaker for a year or do you hand the job to Pedroia? I'm not sure he's ready for the start of next year, but by the end I think the job is his.

Grafanino did a great job, but let's not overstate what he is. If he wants to come back for short money that's cool with me as long as he's ready to yield to Pedroia when the time comes.

Third base:
Mueller's contract is up. Another solid year for him. If he'll take a one year contract at reasonable money I'd like to see him back at 3b so Youkilis can play first. If he wants 3-4 years then I'd let some other team make that mistake. I think Youkilis gets a starting job next year at either first or third, where he's playing will likely depend entirely on what replacement options are there at first and third. Obviously, 3b is normally the tougher slot to fill but if you've got a guy who can do the job in Bill Mueller maybe that's the way you go.

Shortstop:
I really want to like Edgar Renteria but he sure made that difficult last year. Offensively, his numbers were right on par. Defensively, he was a complete ****ing mess. I'd like to think the difficulties were due to injury but only time will tell. He needs to start playing well at the beginning of next season or his tenure in Boston is going to get real difficult real fast.

The pressure to play Hanley Ramirez will be immense if Renteria sputters. And I'm not sure he's ready. Ramirez should be a good player someday but I'd like to see some more production before we hand him an everyday job. But Sox Nation has heard the hype on Ramirez for 3 years now and they'll be itching for a payday. I just hope they don't try to give it before he's ready. If Ramirez is ready and Renteria stabilizes himself defensively, what do you do with Hanley? Obviously, CF has been bandied about as a landing spot for him. If Damon's gone that would be interesting, but you can't count on him to be your starting CF from day one next year so I have to think if Damon goes they'll have someone else ready to play CF for at least the next two years. That leaves him as the heir apparent at 3b when Mueller is done with Youk shifting over to 1b to match his defensive skills.

Left field:
Yes, Manny is overpaid. But you can count on him for massive offensive production each and every year, and sometimes it's worth paying for consistency. You know each year with Manny you're going to get anywhere from 2-5 "Manny being Manny" moments and a continuation of his eight straight years of 30 HR, 100 RBI. If you're going to move Manny, you better find someone that you can count on for 70% of the production at less than 50% of the price. I'm not sure you can do that. The flip side of the coin is that Manny will be 34 at the start of next season and has 3 years left on his contract. Is it forseeable that he'll have a major dip in production over those three years? If Theo can project that I think that's the only way you can get rid of him. Paying him $20M to be a shell of his former self is not an option.

Center field:
Johnny Damon is of course a free agent. It is going to be very tough to cut the cord here, but Jesus will be 32 at the start of next season and with the money/years he wants and will undoubtedly get from someone he's got Bernie Williams written all over him. And Bernie was a better player. Damon has been a very likable and entertaining Red Sox for the past four years but he's been increasingly banged up the past two years and I don't want to be paying Varitek, Damon, and Ramirez when they all hit a decline phase.

The problem is: what other options do the Sox have?

Right Field
Trot Nixon has never been one of my favorite players but I don't think there's any chance that he's not the guy patrolling RF next season.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Brandon Moss, and David Murphy all look like they'll make decent major leaguers some day. None of them will be ready next year and I don't think any of them are superstars in the making. Still, it's nice to have some organizational depth for once.

Designated hitter:
Big Papi. What else can I say?

Luis_Rivera · 10-21-2005, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

Starting pitching:
I'm of the opinion that Schilling is done as a dominant starter. He may be an effective starter, but he'll never again be the dominant starter that led this team (along with Pedro) to the World Series victory last year.

Agreed.

Quote:

David Wells and Tim Wakefield. Two guys who gave you exactly what you should have expected and should again next year. Wells has made 30+ starts four years in a row now. Wakefield has made at least 30 appearances in each of the last ten seasons, with some of them coming as a reliever. Both will be a year older but I don't see any reason to expect significantly less than what the Sox got this year.

I don't know how credible his sources are, but my dad just told me that Wells asked for a trade to a west coast team, and the Sox are gonna accomodate him. We'll see how that develops.

Quote:

Matt Clement. What a frustrating year for him. He too essentially gave what should be expected from his career numbers, but it always felt like he should be doing much better and at times he was. I like Clement and hope he can bring it all together, but the guy is 30 and I'm not sure expecting leaps and bounds in production is realistic. Clement is not an ace nor a horse but he probably was the best option among the FA pitchers last year for the Sox.

Clement's overall K/9 was down anyway from last season. However, how much it was is misleading. Sometime around his August 24th start he stopped striking guys out. That was a month and a couple starts after the late July game he got nailed in the head, but it could be related to that... or his arm may just have tired late in the season. I don't know, but I don't want to rely on him to be a #1 again.

Quote:

Bronson Arroyo will probably be relegated to the bullpen next year, but you have to consider the production you've gotten out of him the past two years to be essentially gravy. He's the perfect guy to count on as an effective longman who can step in when the inevitable injuries to the starters occur.

Agreed here. He can be our #6. The huge drop in K rate from '04 to '05 still confuses the **** out of me, and if that's not completely a fluke then his days as an effective starter are done.

If you look at his daily K/9 chart (which is a rolling chart of K rates in the previous 7 IP) here... and combine 2004 and 2005, you can really see the decline and it doesn't look like it's gonna get much better: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx...ge=1&type=full

Quote:

AJ Burnett and Kevin Millwood look like the only reasonable options on the FA market. Burnett's numbers don't look all that different from Clement's to me. The only difference is that he's young and I'm going to have to assume he'll want more money. Is Burnett worth Pedro money? Is Millwood worth Clement money? I'd hesitate on both accounts.

Burnett worth Pedro money? No. Millwood Clement money? Maybe on a short deal. I want to see us make a push for Glendon Rusch. Here's a bit from a post I made the other day in the Cardinals' offseason thread:

"Although, one guy that really sticks out in my head as a sleeper this offseason is Glendon Rusch. He's got very good peripherals, and last hear his BABIP against was .350(!). He's going to bounce back... and bounce back very well. I'd definitely wager that he'll have a better season than Mulder next year."

He'll be cheap too. I say go get him.

Quote:

I have a man crush on Jon Papelbon. He's our best hope for a stud at the front of the rotation and I think there's reason to believe he'll keep developing in that direction.

Until Lester is major league ready, he is without question our best chance. I've had a similar mancrush since last offseason. For other minor league mancrushes of mine see: Pedroia, Dustin.

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Relief pitching:

I'll get to this one overall separately later... but I will say that I want us to get Rudy Seanez.

Quote:

Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen should absolutely be playing big roles in the bullpen out of spring training next year. Lenny Dinardo should get a shot as well. Not only should they be on the roster, Tito needs to put them into actual games too.

Hansen needs a little more work in the minors. I'd say start him in AAA next year and let him get some experience. See how that works out and go from there.

Mr. Delcarmen looks like he could be very good, but he had a huge spike in BB last year when he was promoted to AA. I'd like to see that worked out a bit before I give him a significant role in the majors.

Lenny Dinardo? Well, I thought he should have been given some of Embree's innings in May, but that's another tangent.

Quote:

Catcher:
Jason Varitek is slightly overpaid now and will be massively overpaid by the end of his contract. That being said he's put up a WARP of over 6 three years in a row as a catcher and once you add in all the intangibles he's one of the reasons this team is successful. There just aren't many catchers out there that have that level of consistency.

Put VTek on catcher implosion watch. He's 33 now, and when a catcher hits the wall, it doesn't happen gradually. We could get a slightly less productive version of VTek next year, or we could get Dave Valle.

Quote:

I'm not as big a fanboy of Kelly Shoppach as some people. He should be an ideal backup by the time Varitek is done as an everyday player is this really who we want catching 120 games/year?

Yes. He had a solid line in AAA last year: 253/340/507. I'd like to start him in AAA and drop Mirbs in favor of Kelly at some point before the ASB.

Quote:

First base:
Clearly, Millar is gone. Olerud is probably gone too. I don't think you can sell Petagine as an everday 1b to Red Sox nation. What's available here? In the absence of a decent first baseman on the market, I'd like to see Youkilis plugged in here every day. I'm not sold on Youk's defense at third and he's proved he needs 500+ AB next year.

RSN can eat a dick. I'll take it from there next time I'm on.

eriqjaffe · 10-21-2005, 02:27 PM

According to what I just heard on ESPN radio, Manny would accept a trade that would allow him to be Manny in Anaheim or Cleveland...

darkhorse · 10-21-2005, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

Ramirez should be a good player someday but I'd like to see some more production before we hand him an everyday job.

What happened to him? Had a wasted year at AA.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...-ramirez.shtml

Jason · 10-21-2005, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

What happened to him? Had a wasted year at AA.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...-ramirez.shtml

Nicely played DH.

QuestGAV · 10-21-2005, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

What happened to him? Had a wasted year at AA.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...-ramirez.shtml

Don't know. I always thought it would be tough to live up to the hype. He's still only 21, so maybe he's got more to show.

The Wells thing is obnoxious.

IatricSB · 10-21-2005, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

According to what I just heard on ESPN radio, Manny would accept a trade that would allow him to be Manny in Anaheim or Cleveland...

Please let it be Cleveland

QuestGAV · 10-21-2005, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dale And Eli's Dad

Nicely played DH.

Eh?

darkhorse · 10-21-2005, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dale And Eli's Dad

Nicely played DH.

If I said something clever, it was by accident.

darkhorse · 10-21-2005, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

The Wells thing is obnoxious.

???

QuestGAV · 10-21-2005, 03:41 PM

He apparently wants to get traded to SD because he can't handle the heat in Boston.

eriqjaffe · 10-21-2005, 03:42 PM

If David Wells gets sent to the Padres, he may have to watch out for Sea World workers who think he's escaped.

Joshv02 · 10-21-2005, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

What happened to him? Had a wasted year at AA.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...-ramirez.shtml

He's battled back injuries for much of the year, though he hasn't taken time off. He was still ranked a top prospect in the EL by BA. (I think a spot below or above Millege, fwiw.) He is also considered a gold glove quality SS, with range and a sick arm.

Overall, considering his age, I think he is mostly on target.

Joshv02 · 10-21-2005, 03:55 PM

Nice write up, QG.

QuestGAV · 10-21-2005, 04:47 PM

A quick thought before I head off to work:

Are the Sox being this accomodating to Wells to allow themselves to make a serious run at Burnett? I think the chances of it just went way up. I'm not sold.

QuestGAV · 10-22-2005, 03:04 PM

What do you guys make of the Theo situation? I still think they're overwhelmingly likely to get a deal done, but it would be a travesty if he had to walk because egos got in the way of what's right for the franchise. I don't think Larry Lucchino is nearly as smart as he thinks he is, or at least as adept as he thinks he is at managing things that are in the public eye. He may be excellent behind closed doors, but whenever he opens his mouth when a microphone is there it seems like he mucks things up repeatedly. And I think Theo brought great balance to that in that he has the Belichickian ability to not provide bulletin board material and not embarass the players in his own organization. When you consider how great he is at providing a suitable face to the franchise, plus the undoubtedly more important functions in building the talent pool for the on-field product I think Theo is extremely valuable to the Red Sox. If they let him walk over anything less than millions of dollars difference then it'll be because decisions were made based on egos and not what's right for the franchise.

Luis_Rivera · 10-22-2005, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

First base:
Clearly, Millar is gone. Olerud is probably gone too. I don't think you can sell Petagine as an everday 1b to Red Sox nation. What's available here? In the absence of a decent first baseman on the market, I'd like to see Youkilis plugged in here every day. I'm not sold on Youk's defense at third and he's proved he needs 500+ AB next year.

I really don't know at this point what I think they should do here. Unless they work a trade or do something drastic and unforseen (like move someone else to this position like Nixon), then Youks is really our best option here.

Quote:

Second base
A tough decision here. Do you sign/resign a caretaker for a year or do you hand the job to Pedroia? I'm not sure he's ready for the start of next year,but by the end I think the job is his.

I say get a caretaker... I doubt Graff will be back (I wouldn't come back after making an error like that when the Fenway "Faithful" haven't had their chance to boo him in person yet), sign a guy like Grudzielanek to a one year deal to hold the position and move Pedroia in when he shows he's ready in AAA (which I anticipate will be this year).

Actually, if it were possible to land Grudz to a one year deal, platooning him with Cora would be a great situation. Of course, there are always other factors (i.e. Grudz wanting to seek a solid starting job) and this would probably end up not being feasible.

Quote:

Third base:
Mueller's contract is up. Another solid year for him. If he'll take a one year contract at reasonable money I'd like to see him back at 3b so Youkilis can play first. If he wants 3-4 years then I'd let some other team make that mistake. I think Youkilis gets a starting job next year at either first or third, where he's playing will likely depend entirely on what replacement options are there at first and third. Obviously, 3b is normally the tougher slot to fill but if you've got a guy who can do the job in Bill Mueller maybe that's the way you go.

Given our 1B situation, it's very possible that Youks will be there next year. Ideally, I'd like to see Mueller back on a one-year deal because he's really the best option... but again, how likely is that?

Quote:

Shortstop:
I really want to like Edgar Renteria but he sure made that difficult last year. Offensively, his numbers were right on par. Defensively, he was a complete ****ing mess. I'd like to think the difficulties were due to injury but only time will tell. He needs to start playing well at the beginning of next season or his tenure in Boston is going to get real difficult real fast.

I wouldn't say he was on par offensively. I disliked his contract when it was signed because I don't like when long term deals are signed based off of one year as his was due to his great 2003. I'm willing to give Theo one mulligan though, and this one is it.

Quote:

The pressure to play Hanley Ramirez will be immense if Renteria sputters. And I'm not sure he's ready. Ramirez should be a good player someday but I'd like to see some more production before we hand him an everyday job. But Sox Nation has heard the hype on Ramirez for 3 years now and they'll be itching for a payday. I just hope they don't try to give it before he's ready. If Ramirez is ready and Renteria stabilizes himself defensively, what do you do with Hanley? Obviously, CF has been bandied about as a landing spot for him. If Damon's gone that would be interesting, but you can't count on him to be your starting CF from day one next year so I have to think if Damon goes they'll have someone else ready to play CF for at least the next two years. That leaves him as the heir apparent at 3b when Mueller is done with Youk shifting over to 1b to match his defensive skills.

Ramirez had some mediocre numbers in AA this year. I'm concerned about him. I really don't think he'll ever live up to his hype here in Boston. He's definitely not ready, and should be started in AA this year. If he's raking, then bump him up to AAA and wait for the results.

Quote:

Left field:
Yes, Manny is overpaid. But you can count on him for massive offensive production each and every year, and sometimes it's worth paying for consistency. You know each year with Manny you're going to get anywhere from 2-5 "Manny being Manny" moments and a continuation of his eight straight years of 30 HR, 100 RBI. If you're going to move Manny, you better find someone that you can count on for 70% of the production at less than 50% of the price. I'm not sure you can do that. The flip side of the coin is that Manny will be 34 at the start of next season and has 3 years left on his contract. Is it forseeable that he'll have a major dip in production over those three years? If Theo can project that I think that's the only way you can get rid of him. Paying him $20M to be a shell of his former self is not an option.

He's not at the same level he was at when he first signed the deal, but he's still an excellent hitter. Who knows what's going to happen with this.

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Center field:
Johnny Damon is of course a free agent. It is going to be very tough to cut the cord here, but Jesus will be 32 at the start of next season and with the money/years he wants and will undoubtedly get from someone he's got Bernie Williams written all over him. And Bernie was a better player. Damon has been a very likable and entertaining Red Sox for the past four years but he's been increasingly banged up the past two years and I don't want to be paying Varitek, Damon, and Ramirez when they all hit a decline phase.

LET DAMON GO. PLEASE THEO. He's already started to decline, and it was slightly hidden this year because he had a very high BABIP. That will likely regress, and whoever gives him a big deal this offseason will be stuck with his bad contract. I don't care if they can't get someone at his level for next year. Taking a slight hit next year isn't worth mortgaging the future.

Go out and get a guy that will sign a short term deal. Hopefully Randy Winn won't be able to parlay his strong finish into an irrational deal and we can grab him for a couple years. I'd be more than happy with that.

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Right Field
Trot Nixon has never been one of my favorite players but I don't think there's any chance that he's not the guy patrolling RF next season.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Brandon Moss, and David Murphy all look like they'll make decent major leaguers some day. None of them will be ready next year and I don't think any of them are superstars in the making. Still, it's nice to have some organizational depth for once.

Ditto. Well, except the part about Nix not being one of your favorites.

Quote:

Designated hitter:
Big Papi. What else can I say?

Amen to that.

QuestGAV · 10-22-2005, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

I say get a caretaker (at 2b)... I doubt Graff will be back (I wouldn't come back after making an error like that when the Fenway "Faithful" haven't had their chance to boo him in person yet), sign a guy like Grudzielanek to a one year deal to hold the position and move Pedroia in when he shows he's ready in AAA (which I anticipate will be this year).

I wouldn't say he (Renteria) was on par offensively. I disliked his contract when it was signed because I don't like when long term deals are signed based off of one year as his was due to his great 2003. I'm willing to give Theo one mulligan though, and this one is it.

I don't think the Fenway Faithful will be all that hard on Graffanino. He had earned himself a reasonable following and has that scrappy white boy David Eckstein thing going for him. If it were Renteria that made that error, I agree that he'd be run out of town.

As far as Renteria goes offensively, his EQA was right on par with his career average, probably over it if you subtract 2003 which is where I was coming from. Of course, this shows why you can't just look at one number. It looks like he was under his career average in pretty much every category. The striking drop in SB, regardless of what you think of them, is pretty scary to me.

Luis_Rivera · 10-22-2005, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

As far as Renteria goes offensively, his EQA was right on par with his career average, probably over it if you subtract 2003 which is where I was coming from. Of course, this shows why you can't just look at one number. It looks like he was under his career average in pretty much every category. The striking drop in SB, regardless of what you think of them, is pretty scary to me.

Well, it was his worst year other than 2001 offensively. It's really not different from last year either, but I don't think he was expected to hit like he did last year.

As for the stolen bases, we don't steal that much. It looks like he started to lose his ability to steal in '04 though, not '05, as he swiped 17 while getting caught 11 times. I would imagine, now that he's 30, that ability will never be back.

mlyons · 10-22-2005, 06:05 PM

Is Ortiz such a butcher defensively that you can't even contemplate putting him back at 1B?

10-21-2005, 02:27 PM	#3
eriqjaffe Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: Under The Christmas Fish Posts: 7,768	According to what I just heard on ESPN radio, Manny would accept a trade that would allow him to be Manny in Anaheim or Cleveland... __________________

10-21-2005, 03:42 PM	#12
eriqjaffe Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: Under The Christmas Fish Posts: 7,768	If David Wells gets sent to the Padres, he may have to watch out for Sea World workers who think he's escaped. __________________

10-21-2005, 03:55 PM	#14
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,082	Nice write up, QG. __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

10-22-2005, 06:05 PM	#20
mlyons Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 3,725	Is Ortiz such a butcher defensively that you can't even contemplate putting him back at 1B? __________________ Things can always be worse.

10-21-2005, 12:41 PM	#1
QuestGAV Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 2,010	Boston Red Sox 2005-06 Offseason Thread I spent about two hours typing one of these up the other day and by the time I went to post it I had been logged out and no amount of back button pressing could get it out. Since I wasn't sure if I needed to scream, cry, or throw things I decided to just walk away before the university stuck me with a bill for the monitor I threw out the window. Now that I'm safely at home with my own computer I guess I'll give it another shot. Last year was an interesting year, but looking back I think all of us should have been able to see that repeating was simply not going to be possible. The difference between last year's team and any other Red Sox team I remember is the presence of two aces among the starting pitching staff. This year, with Pedro gone and Schilling much less effective, there were none. That's simply not something that can be compensated for, regardless of the effectiveness of the offense. Everything else, including the bullpen woes, were secondary to the lack of consistently excellent starting pitching. Of course, the question becomes: can this team have even a single ace next year? That looks like a tall order for Theo. They don't grow on trees. Starting pitching: I'm of the opinion that Schilling is done as a dominant starter. He may be an effective starter, but he'll never again be the dominant starter that led this team (along with Pedro) to the World Series victory last year. His BB/H/HR per 9 were all way up, much of which can be attributed to injury, but some has to be attributed to age. And can all of the injury loss be compensated for? I'm not sure. He'll be in the rotation next year, but he'll have a tough time meeting expectations despite being two years off the bloody sock. David Wells and Tim Wakefield. Two guys who gave you exactly what you should have expected and should again next year. Wells has made 30+ starts four years in a row now. Wakefield has made at least 30 appearances in each of the last ten seasons, with some of them coming as a reliever. Both will be a year older but I don't see any reason to expect significantly less than what the Sox got this year. Matt Clement. What a frustrating year for him. He too essentially gave what should be expected from his career numbers, but it always felt like he should be doing much better and at times he was. I like Clement and hope he can bring it all together, but the guy is 30 and I'm not sure expecting leaps and bounds in production is realistic. Clement is not an ace nor a horse but he probably was the best option among the FA pitchers last year for the Sox. Bronson Arroyo will probably be relegated to the bullpen next year, but you have to consider the production you've gotten out of him the past two years to be essentially gravy. He's the perfect guy to count on as an effective longman who can step in when the inevitable injuries to the starters occur. AJ Burnett and Kevin Millwood look like the only reasonable options on the FA market. Burnett's numbers don't look all that different from Clement's to me. The only difference is that he's young and I'm going to have to assume he'll want more money. Is Burnett worth Pedro money? Is Millwood worth Clement money? I'd hesitate on both accounts. I have a man crush on Jon Papelbon. He's our best hope for a stud at the front of the rotation and I think there's reason to believe he'll keep developing in that direction. He's not Pedro, or even Schilling at his apex, but he's a guy who should eat alot of innings and be a very effective starter for a long time. The other prospects like Anibal Sanchez and Jon Lester look intriguing but I don't think it's fair to expect them to play a role next year. Having Papelbon, Lester, and Sanchez anchor the rotation in 2007 would be pretty sweet though. Relief pitching: The second achilles heel of this team last year. I think one of the problems with having a big payroll is that you end up paying big money to mediocre relief pitchers based on a good year or two. I have no proof, but I'd be willing to bet relief pitcher performance is a spot at which there's less consistency than most positions from year to year. If there's less consistency and you're paying for past production you end up choking out the arms that you need to develop yourself in order to have the kind of bullpen that you see in Anaheim or Minnesota. I think the Sox have finally developed some of those strong young arms and it's time to put them to use. No more mediocre veterans making solid money in the pen! Let the young guys sink or swim, invest the cash elsewhere where the return potential is higher. Is Foulke done in Boston? His contract says he's not, but his demeanor makes it tough to bring him back. Clearly a devastating year for him both professionally and personally. If they can unload him without having to absorb the majority of the contract I think they can and should. But who is going to take him at that price? I could see Foulke coming back and getting a shot to rebuild his own value so they can get rid of him without having to take pennies on the dollar. I think you have to bring Timlin back, even though he's pushing 40 and just had one of the best years of his career. He provided great stability at the back of the pen through the Schilling and Foulke problems and should be able to do something comparable next year. I wouldn't mind seeing Myers or Bradford back at the right price. Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen should absolutely be playing big roles in the bullpen out of spring training next year. Lenny Dinardo should get a shot as well. Not only should they be on the roster, Tito needs to put them into actual games too. Catcher: Jason Varitek is slightly overpaid now and will be massively overpaid by the end of his contract. That being said he's put up a WARP of over 6 three years in a row as a catcher and once you add in all the intangibles he's one of the reasons this team is successful. There just aren't many catchers out there that have that level of consistency. Doug Mirabelli regressed back towards his career numbers this year, but that's not particularly surprising. He's a backup catcher, what do you want? I'm not as big a fanboy of Kelly Shoppach as some people. He should be an ideal backup by the time Varitek is done as an everyday player is this really who we want catching 120 games/year? If they can get a package of real value for him they should. Catching is of course hard to come by, but what can you really expect him to contribute to this team in the next 2 years? First base: Clearly, Millar is gone. Olerud is probably gone too. I don't think you can sell Petagine as an everday 1b to Red Sox nation. What's available here? In the absence of a decent first baseman on the market, I'd like to see Youkilis plugged in here every day. I'm not sold on Youk's defense at third and he's proved he needs 500+ AB next year. Second base A tough decision here. Do you sign/resign a caretaker for a year or do you hand the job to Pedroia? I'm not sure he's ready for the start of next year, but by the end I think the job is his. Grafanino did a great job, but let's not overstate what he is. If he wants to come back for short money that's cool with me as long as he's ready to yield to Pedroia when the time comes. Third base: Mueller's contract is up. Another solid year for him. If he'll take a one year contract at reasonable money I'd like to see him back at 3b so Youkilis can play first. If he wants 3-4 years then I'd let some other team make that mistake. I think Youkilis gets a starting job next year at either first or third, where he's playing will likely depend entirely on what replacement options are there at first and third. Obviously, 3b is normally the tougher slot to fill but if you've got a guy who can do the job in Bill Mueller maybe that's the way you go. Shortstop: I really want to like Edgar Renteria but he sure made that difficult last year. Offensively, his numbers were right on par. Defensively, he was a complete **ing mess. I'd like to think the difficulties were due to injury but only time will tell. He needs to start playing well at the beginning of next season or his tenure in Boston is going to get real difficult real fast. The pressure to play Hanley Ramirez will be immense if Renteria sputters. And I'm not sure he's ready. Ramirez should be a good player someday but I'd like to see some more production before we hand him an everyday job. But Sox Nation has heard the hype on Ramirez for 3 years now and they'll be itching for a payday. I just hope they don't try to give it before he's ready. If Ramirez is ready and Renteria stabilizes himself defensively, what do you do with Hanley? Obviously, CF has been bandied about as a landing spot for him. If Damon's gone that would be interesting, but you can't count on him to be your starting CF from day one next year so I have to think if Damon goes they'll have someone else ready to play CF for at least the next two years. That leaves him as the heir apparent at 3b when Mueller is done with Youk shifting over to 1b to match his defensive skills. Left field: Yes, Manny is overpaid. But you can count on him for massive offensive production each and every year, and sometimes it's worth paying for consistency. You know each year with Manny you're going to get anywhere from 2-5 "Manny being Manny" moments and a continuation of his eight straight years of 30 HR, 100 RBI. If you're going to move Manny, you better find someone that you can count on for 70% of the production at less than 50% of the price. I'm not sure you can do that. The flip side of the coin is that Manny will be 34 at the start of next season and has 3 years left on his contract. Is it forseeable that he'll have a major dip in production over those three years? If Theo can project that I think that's the only way you can get rid of him. Paying him $20M to be a shell of his former self is not an option. Center field: Johnny Damon is of course a free agent. It is going to be very tough to cut the cord here, but Jesus will be 32 at the start of next season and with the money/years he wants and will undoubtedly get from someone he's got Bernie Williams written all over him. And Bernie was a better player. Damon has been a very likable and entertaining Red Sox for the past four years but he's been increasingly banged up the past two years and I don't want to be paying Varitek, Damon, and Ramirez when they all hit a decline phase. The problem is: what other options do the Sox have? Right Field Trot Nixon has never been one of my favorite players but I don't think there's any chance that he's not the guy patrolling RF next season. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brandon Moss, and David Murphy all look like they'll make decent major leaguers some day. None of them will be ready next year and I don't think any of them are superstars in the making. Still, it's nice to have some organizational depth for once. Designated hitter:** Big Papi. What else can I say?

10-21-2005, 03:41 PM	#11
QuestGAV Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 2,010	He apparently wants to get traded to SD because he can't handle the heat in Boston.

10-21-2005, 04:47 PM	#15
QuestGAV Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 2,010	A quick thought before I head off to work: Are the Sox being this accomodating to Wells to allow themselves to make a serious run at Burnett? I think the chances of it just went way up. I'm not sold.

10-22-2005, 03:04 PM	#16
QuestGAV Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 2,010	What do you guys make of the Theo situation? I still think they're overwhelmingly likely to get a deal done, but it would be a travesty if he had to walk because egos got in the way of what's right for the franchise. I don't think Larry Lucchino is nearly as smart as he thinks he is, or at least as adept as he thinks he is at managing things that are in the public eye. He may be excellent behind closed doors, but whenever he opens his mouth when a microphone is there it seems like he mucks things up repeatedly. And I think Theo brought great balance to that in that he has the Belichickian ability to not provide bulletin board material and not embarass the players in his own organization. When you consider how great he is at providing a suitable face to the franchise, plus the undoubtedly more important functions in building the talent pool for the on-field product I think Theo is extremely valuable to the Red Sox. If they let him walk over anything less than millions of dollars difference then it'll be because decisions were made based on egos and not what's right for the franchise.