New York Mets 2005-2006 offseason thread

Melo · 10-12-2005, 03:55 PM

I thought I would kick this puppy off with my outlook on the Mets preseason. Now that the season is over, as frustrating as it was at times, I miss watching the games. I have high hopes for the 2006 Mets and have visions of Manny and Wagner dancing in my head.

Catcher: Piazza is almost assuredly gone. There was some speculation that Piazza and Castro would share the job next year. When questioned during the White Sox/ Red Sox series, Mike said he was open to it and he said the Mets were open to it but there were a lot of options for both parties. Last week, Buster Olney said on ESPN radio that just about every GM in the league is assuming that Padres catcher Ramon Hernandez is signing with the Mets. Hernandez is a solid catcher offensively and sports a good arm. Brian Schneider is also a FA possibility, as well.

First Base: IMO, this is the most critical position to evaluate this off season. Mike Jacobs, in 100Abs, did enough to merit serious consideration for the job. He’s left handed, has good power and has a good enough glove. But is he going to be good enough to be the man there? With guys like Overbay, Casey, Huff and possibly lesser known players like Detroit’s Pena available via trade, Omar will have to determine whether he wants to trade for someone or see if Jacobs can handle the job on a full time basis over an entire season. This decision could prove to be crucial to next years chances.
Maybe Mientkiewicz and his 3.75M salary can be moved for some BP help. Supposedly, Florida will make Delgado available.

Second Base: Offensively, no team was worse off at 2nd than the Mets. Matsui was injured a lot and Cairo isn’t a full time player. Neither player was particularly selective nor displayed much extra base power. Both have limited range in the field. Matsui is set to earn a stunning 8M next year and has a limited no trade clause in his contract. He can only be dealt to the Yankees or a west coast team. I had hoped that Matsui would gracefully bow out and maybe accept some kind of buy out to slink back to Japan but he showed enough in September that he may think he can still play on this level. Anderson Hernandez is a possibility but he needs to mature offensively and is probably a year away. Omar wants a high OBP guy to bat behind Reyes and 2B would be a nice place to get it from but Matsui’s big salary is a stumbling block.

Shortstop: I think Reyes is one of the most exciting players in the game. Watch him go home to third or even first to home on a single as he did once this season and you’ll know what I mean. He’s just a lot of fun to watch. Supposedly he’s supposed to work on his bunting in the hopes that he could pick up 20-30 hits with better technique. Although he didn’t improve on the amount of walks he earned in the second half, he was more restrained and generally worked the count a little deeper. Defensively, I think he’ll earn a gold glove or two. Most importantly, Reyes stayed healthy and had no problems with his legs at all.

Third Base: Wright can pretty much do it all: 27 HRs and over 40 doubles he’s patient and hit lefties as well as anyone in the NL. He runs well and can steal 20 bases. His defense improved dramatically in the second half as well. He’s a good teammate and already accepted as a leader. David Wright may well end up being the best all around player that the Mets ever produced. Wright would be perfect hitting 3rd in the lineup.

Left Field: Cliffy played his ass off this year and won me over. He bought into Willie’s idea that he is the man and had to play every day. Floyd came into camp in great shape, stayed healthy and did everything asked of him, including fielding his position. Buster Olney has said that he believes Manny Ramirez is likely to become a Met and as silly as it may sound, I’d feel bad for Cliff if Manny came and Cliff had to move to RF. That’s how much I respect Cliff’s effort this past season. There is talk that after this past season that this would be the time to trade him because his value will never be this high. I’m not sure one could expect Cliff to duplicate this past season but I’m not sure his expected numbers for next year would be so easy to replace either. Suffice to say that Manny would be sweet but I’d be happy with Cliff too.

Center Field: Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat: Beltran will probably never live up to the salary he is going to be paid. He’s not Manny, he’s not Vlad, he’s not Pujols. But he will be better than he was last year. If Beltran were to consistently give a .300 BA/.390 OBP/.525 SLG season, I don’t think anyone would complain. He’s done that before and he can do it again. If the Mets can get a legit cleanup guy and Wright can move to 3rd in the order Beltran can go back to the 2 hole where he is obviously more comfortable.

Right Field: Cameron will be gone and Diaz is more valuable as trade bait. In fact, if Damon leaves Boston I can see both Cameron and Diaz going in a deal for Manny. Cameron is still highly regarded as a center fielder and despite injured will draw a lot of interest. I like Diaz, he has potential and improved defensively but he got on Willie’s bad side after some attitude problems and lack of hustle. If Manny doesn’t come and Floyd doesn't get shifted to right, I’m not sure what the plan will be. The FA market is thin so maybe Cameron or Diaz will get the job and I’m sure that only one will stay while the other goes.

Bench: I’m hoping Woodward and Anderson stay. Both are versatile in the field and had success as pinch hitters. Cairo is most likely gone and I’d love to see the Mets get a real 4th outfielder and a real back up at first. The Mets could use a little power off the bench. I love Castro as the backup catcher.

Rotation: How does a rotation of Pedro, Glavine, Benson, Heilman and Seo sound? I don’t know, right now it sounds pretty good to me. Assuming Pedro can be pedro and Glavine can come close to his 2nd half performance over an entire season, the Mets have two vets with a proven background. Benson benefited from the veteran presence of both those guys but seemed to tire as the season wound down. Heilman reverted to his old release point (3/4) and became a pitcher again. After a season of success in the pen, he’s going to Venezuela to start and lengthen his arm. Seo matured and even if he’s not as good as he was at the end of this past season, he makes a heckuva 5th starter. This leaves Trachsel and Zambrano on the outside looking in. Trachsel will be traded (supposedly the Red Sox were interested before the 8-31 deadline) and Zambrano may stay and throw out of the pen.

Bullpen: One name…Billy Wagner. Everything else is up in the air. I’m sure Roberto Hernandez will be welcomed back. Juan Padilla was sharp and will have a spot. Looper will be gone and Heilman will be in the rotation. Heath Bell is a possibility but Randolph may have soured on him. Of all things, the bullpen has to fixed. Of course that holds true for just about every other team so it will all have to start with the closer. Wagner and BJ Ryan will be available and the Mets will get one of them. Before the season even ended, Wagner commented that he would be interested in playing for the Mets. He knows the Mets will pay and the Mets know he can close games better than any other FA out there. The Mets also need a good lefty set up guy out in the pen but again, so does every one else. Lefties are at a premium.

Overall outlook: The NL East is highly competitive. The Braves are the Braves and someone has to knock them off sooner or later. The question is when it will happen? Atlanta is the model and everyone is trying to catch up to them. Philly has the most talented starting lineup in the division; with pitching they could be scary. Unless Florida dismantles again, they have the most talent overall. Washington played hard all year and should be a quality team again.

The Mets got what they wanted this year. They improved and Omar will once again have an open checkbook with the new Mets sports station to debut next year. The FA market will be thin so it will be a mix of FA and trade and hopefully some of the kids can get a cup of coffee next year. Piazza will fall off the payroll this year and after next year, Glavine, Matsui, Floyd and Cameron will fall off and there will be a lot of openings for new blood like Petit, Milledge, Bannister, Hernandez and the like. Omar’s plan is to win now without sacrificing the future and although next years squad can be talented, key players have a certain amount of fragility so the youngsters could play a significant role. It will be interesting to see how Omar, Willie, et al approach next year after having a full season to evaluate the franchise and it’s talent.

darkhorse · 10-12-2005, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melo

Third Base: Wright can pretty much do it all: 27 HRs and over 40 doubles he’s patient and hit lefties as well as anyone in the NL. He runs well and can steal 20 bases. His defense improved dramatically in the second half as well. He’s a good teammate and already accepted as a leader. David Wright may well end up being the best all around player that the Mets ever produced. Wright would be perfect hitting 3rd in the lineup.

I was looking at DW's minor league numbers at the Baseball Cube and who could have dreamed, prior to the 2004 season, that he would be this good. He just fooking exploded that year.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...d-wright.shtml

Sublimity · 10-13-2005, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

I was looking at DW's minor league numbers at the Baseball Cube and who could have dreamed, prior to the 2004 season, that he would be this good. He just fooking exploded that year.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...d-wright.shtml

So does he keep it up? Or does he fall back to Earth?

Fantasy baseball players everywhere need to know!

lgkeeper · 10-13-2005, 09:43 AM

I heard that they are seriously considering Heilman for the closer's role and - if not - they will absolutely go after BJ Ryan. Haven't heard much other than that.

Melo · 10-13-2005, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sublimity

So does he keep it up? Or does he fall back to Earth?

Fantasy baseball players everywhere need to know!

I say he keeps up and shows slight but steady improvement. I'm sure dh can bring a lot of statistical stuff to the table and I can't (or won't) that would be interesting to look at. I can tell you alot of what I saw anecdotally though after watching just about every game this year. Teams tried pitching every way this year and eventually he adapted to it. They tried busting him inside, fastballs up , fastballs down, breaking stuff outside and he handled it all. He started out batting 7th and as he moved up in the order, his numbers improved.

Maybe dh can look into it but if I'm not mistaken, Wright hit lefties as good as anyone in the NL, was an excellent hitter with 2 strikes and had good numbers with RISP, especially with 2 outs.

Playing in Shea, I don't think he'll develop into a big HR guy but .300 BA, 40 DB, 30 HR with an OBP approaching .400 on consistent basis would not be surprising. He'll get a GG before he retires too.

Melo · 10-13-2005, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lgkeeper

I heard that they are seriously considering Heilman for the closer's role and - if not - they will absolutely go after BJ Ryan. Haven't heard much other than that.

Heilman is definitely going to Venezuela to start. Ryan is younger but not as proven as Wagner. Wagner has a pedigree but he could fall off in effectiveness pretty quickly. I read yesterday that Wagner wants 3 years for 29M which is steep. Ryan will be closer to 3 for 21M, so who knows?

If you hear something interesting post so we all know what's going on

ctorg · 10-13-2005, 11:14 AM

Nice write-up, Melo. If the Mets make a couple of good moves in the offseason, I'll feel really good about the team next year.

Melo · 10-13-2005, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctorg

Nice write-up, Melo. If the Mets make a couple of good moves in the offseason, I'll feel really good about the team next year.

Yeah and you'll be living in the area if everything breaks right for you to, right? The Mets new network will debut in the spring in the tristate area and you'll be able to watch more

Keith Stuart · 10-14-2005, 08:54 PM

I'm hoping the Mets stay patient and let the kids develop before selling the farm to get a Manny Ramirez. I don't mind them spending a boatload of money on a big name free agent, but I'd rather see the organization develop for a bit, before they start dealing the Milledge's and Petit's away.

Mycroft · 10-16-2005, 02:43 AM

Nice job Melo. I don't agree with about a third of what you said, but that only makes it interesting, right? The big differences are:

First Base: I'd be happy with Jacobs starting and Mientkiewicz as a backup or platoon, since the Mets have had such awful luck at that postion (Vaughn, anyone?). Konerko is available as a FA if I'm not mistaken and Aubrey Huff has more potential as a trade candidate than the other two you mentioned. However, I'd be surprised if the Mets get much more production out of the position than they have had in recent years. So, if this is the critical postion, the Mets are screwed. .270/.330 with 25 HRs is the most I would expect. I betcha Delgado would end up like Vaughn at Shea.

Second BasePersonally, I think the Mets would do well to just focus on acquiring a solid second baseman and the bullpen. Hernandez is a good fielder, but clearly not ready. I think Matsui is better than people make him out to be. He's a decent hitter at least and *maybe* he can become an adequate fielder. The position may also be a wash because I can't come up with a single name that would do what Melo wants from a second baseman. Crap.

CloserRyan seems like a good option, but I'd rather see Heilman in the position. Gordon also expressed interest in being a closer, and he may be a decent *one* year option, until Heilman gets comfortable.

Rotation I believe Trachsel will be back. So I'm pretty sure the rotation will be Martinez, Glavine, Benson, Trachsel and Seo. As long as Glavine and Martinez maintain their body of work in the second hald and all year, respectively I have no worries. Benson and Trachsel should give at least an average number of Quality Starts (If they can put the Mets in a position to win 60% of the time, not an unreasonable #, they'll do well. Seo is such an oddity that while I like him, I have *no* idea what will happen.

Essentially, my analysis is that the Mets should not/can not/will not change too much. A first baseman and bullpen help may be all that we can hope for.

I'm ambivalent about Ramirez joining the Mets because I can't see him putting up the identical numbers he had at Fenway compared to spacious Shead (Again, Mo Vaughn). And I consider him to be a significant fielding downgrade.

I agree that the lineup should be Reyes/Beltran/Wright/Floyd but I guess then there would have to be a solid #5. Piazza would also be fine for one more year at the #5 spot, considering that catchers rarely are offensive powerhouses and I'm not particularly excited by what's in the market, but his ability to throw out runners is quite suspect.

The Mets could make the playoffs in this division if they solidify one of the three major open positions (1B, 2B, CL) with one or two additions to the bullpen. They have starting depth that is probably the envy of the NL East.
They have an offense that is probably geared bet towards small ball.

Blah, reading things back, I doubt these potions will hold come November. So i reserve the right to change my opinion at any time

.

darkhorse · 10-16-2005, 03:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sublimity

So does he keep it up? Or does he fall back to Earth?

I wasn't implying a fluke. Players that young can, once in a while, make a giant leap forward. There's little to indicate that Wright can't continue to rake for many years to come. Someone that can perform at this level, at this early age, has a pretty high ceiling and they're rare as hen's teeth. He's already twice the player Hank Blalock is. I don't have the heart to write "or ever will be."

Melo · 10-16-2005, 07:39 AM

Mycroft, I can see everything you brought up as real possibilities and it will be a real interesting offseason, for sure. I think that when it comes down to it, the two key players will be be Heilman and Jacobs. Where they fit in and how they are perceived by management will play a big role in how the team gets altered.

The thing with Manny is pretty simple, IMO. I don't think the Mets wil have to give any of their top flight young talent to get him. I've heard that there are some in the Red Sox heirarchy who are prepared to take a step back with this team and let some of the the older talent go. This faction would trade Manny, let Damon and the other FAs walk and try to establish the younger players in their system. With Damon gone, what if the price tag for Manny was Cameron, Trax, Diaz and a 2nd tier minor leaguer like Bannister or Lambin? I guess we'll know more after the Sox meet with Manny this week. Manny hits everywhere and he would make the whole lineup work.

Reyes
Beltran
Wright
Ramirez
Floyd

A legit guy like him allows Beltran, Wright and Floyd to hit in more natural spots in the order for them. Manny is a must and is better than a 50% chance of happening.

And FWIW, I would hate to see Delgado coming here now. He had his chance and he passed.

I agree that Hernandez isn't ready and agree that Matsui is likely. He actually looked OK until he got hurt again. He's making 8M next year and then he's gone.

So maybe if Manny comes, the Mets leave 1b and 2nd base as they are, get a catcher and try to prop up the pen.

darkhorse · 10-16-2005, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melo

And FWIW, I would hate to see Delgado coming here now. He had his chance and he passed.

FWIW, whilst Delgado is getting up there in years, he had a monster year at the plate again.

crackpott · 10-16-2005, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melo

If Beltran were to consistently give a .300 BA/.390 OBP/.525 SLG season, I don’t think anyone would complain. He’s done that before and he can do it again.

I would hope they wouldn't, that would be unquestionably his second best season ever, and possibly his best.

He'll probably be better than this year. I wouldn't guarantee it, but it's very likely. A .900 OPS on the other hand is not, and rather than "not complain" Mets fans should be praising him if he can pull that off.

I'd say if he posted .280/.350/.500 Mets fans should be happy.

ctorg · 10-17-2005, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melo

Yeah and you'll be living in the area if everything breaks right for you to, right? The Mets new network will debut in the spring in the tristate area and you'll be able to watch more

Yeah, hopefully I'll be moving back to town, or the area, in the summer - assuming things work out as I hope, which is a big IF.

Melo · 10-19-2005, 08:55 AM

Taken from nymets.com, Marty Noble answers some letters with questions about the Mets. I guess he does it on a regular basis. nymets.com is a good site and and if you ever want some laughs head over to the fan forum.

http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/NASApp/m...=.jsp&c_id=nym

Quote:

10/17/2005 1:00 PM ET
Mailbag: What's ahead for the Mets?
Beat reporter Marty Noble answers fans' questions
By Marty Noble / MLB.com

Since Mike Jacobs only had 100 at-bats in the 2005 season, is he still eligible to win the Rookie of Year next season? -- Matt G., Philadelphia

Yes, Jacobs retains eligibility because his at-bats didn't exceed 130 and his days on the 25-man roster (before Sept. 1) didn't exceed 45.

Just an aside here: Scott Rolen was the National League Rookie of the Year in 1997 partially because of Steve Trachsel. Pitching for the Cubs against Rolen's Phillies on Sept. 7, 1996, Trachsel hit Rolen with a pitch, breaking a bone in Rolen's left arm and ending the rookie's season. Had that plate appearance ended as an at-bat, Rolen would have lost his rookie status. Instead, he ended his season with 130 at-bats, retained rookie status and won the award in 1997.

Aren't the Mets the spoilers of the year? Did they not eliminate the Marlins, Nationals and Phillies? -- Art W., Rockfall, Conn.

The Mets did, in fact, eliminate the Nationals from contention for the National League East championship with their 6-5 victory in Washington on Sept. 25. They didn't eliminate the Marlins or Phillies from the Wild Card or NL East races, but they certainly damaged the chances of each team, winning the first two games of their home series against the Marlins, Sept. 20-21, and the first two games of their series in Philadelphia, Sept. 26-27.

Can you tell me why we never saw the Mets' starting lineup penciled in as follows: 1. Jose Reyes, 2. Carlos Beltran, 3. David Wright, 4. Cliff Floyd, 5. Mike Piazza? I've heard it mentioned that Carlos prefers to bat second, and since he is our new $100 million man, I would think we would have wanted to do everything we could to accommodate his wishes. Plus Wright, next to Floyd, was team's most consistent hitter and should have been batting third, which would possibly give him an extra at-bat or two. What are your thoughts on the matter? -- Terry W., Anchorage, Alaska

In some ways, it makes sense to bunch the best hitters together at the top of the batting order, in order to get each player as many plate appearances as possible. But there are a myriad of other factors to weigh when a batting order is created -- not the least of which is how much -- or how little -- offense the other players in the order are apt to provide.

Other elements to consider are what will be necessary to score a runner from first or second base, the contact tendencies of all the batters in the order, the opposing pitcher (left-hander or right-hander), the composition of the opposing bullpen (the number of left-handers and right-handers), their likely sequence, their rest and their relative strengths and weaknesses.

That said, Mets manager Willie Randolph liked Wright in the No. 5 spot and saw how comfortable and productive he was there and how much protection he afforded Floyd. And many managers like to have a switch-hitter bat third, as Beltran did in 145 of his 147 starts. Also, if Randolph had bunched those five players in the top five spots, the sixth, seventh and eighth spots -- let's say the first baseman (Doug Mientkiewicz or Mike Jacobs), the right fielder (Mike Cameron or Victor Diaz) and the second baseman (Miguel Cairo or Kaz Matsui) -- would be far less of a challenge for the opposing pitcher. Ideally, you'd prefer to have the opposing pitcher strained every inning.

The Mets need bullpen help. What are the Mets planning on doing this offseason to address the 'pen? Any shot at Billy Wagner? -- Matt G., Allentown, Pa.

Yes, they have genuine interest in Wagner, who is eligible for free agency. Even if Wagner files for free agency, no club other than the Phillies may negotiate with him during the filing period, which ends 15 days after the last game of the World Series. The Phillies already have begun talking with Wagner's representatives. It's difficult to imagine the Phillies letting him get away, but it's also unlikely that he will re-sign with them without hearing what other clubs have to offer -- now that he's gone this far without re-signing.

If the Mets get a chance, they will make their pitch. There will be dozens of considerations for Wagner and any other free-agent pitcher to mull over. Certainly Shea Stadium is a safer place to pitch than the Citizen's Bank launching pad. The relative strengths of the teams, their bullpens and their offers are just a few.

It seems Willie Randolph has too much Yankee coaching style in him. He waits too long before he makes decisions and waits for things to happen, like the big play or a home run. He was not that way in the beginning. He has too much Joe Torre calmness in him. That is not good for a team like the Mets. These players need to be pushed and told what is working and not working. This is not a veteran team. -- Manny M., Albany, N.Y.

Randolph is who he is; and he isn't Joe Torre. If he is calm in the dugout, it's because he is calm in the dugout, not specifically because Torre was or is. No question Randolph is stoic. He was as a player, too. He also has one year of experience, and his manner -- call it what you will -- elicited a pretty good season.

Torre was calm with the Mets when they had no talent. It didn't work because their talent was sorely lacking, not because he was low-key. Padres manager Bruce Bochy is calm. Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa is calm. Former Devil Rays manager Lou Piniella wasn't -- and his team played poorly. Give Randolph a second season at least and understand the Mets made a 12-game improvement playing without adequate production from first base, second base and right field and with a closer who pitched hurt the entire season.

Randolph's demeanor had nothing to do with any of that.

Do you think it would make sense to send a guy like Phil Humber over to the Phillies for Ryan Howard? The way I see it, the Mets will have a big hole at first next season, and there aren't any standouts in the free-agent market. Howard may be a great option, because the Phillies still have Jim Thome. -- Steve K., Owings Mills, Md.

It would make so much sense, the Phillies would laugh. Humber is recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Howard may be the National League Rookie of the Year. The Mets would have to include significantly more in a package for Howard. And I'm not sure the Phillies would listen in any case.

You watch Howard hit home runs to left-center field, and you think you're watching Darryl Strawberry, circa 1983.

The one addition the Mets need other than a shut-down closer, is a "professional hitter," a guy who hits a minimum of .300 and makes contact -- a novelty for the Mets -- while hitting at least 30 doubles and 15 home runs, a Keith Hernandez-John Olerud-type to bat third. What position he plays -- second, first or right -- is immaterial. -- Eva S., New York
Very few teams wouldn't benefit from a player who hits as Hernandez and Olerud did in their best seasons at Shea. That said, the Mets had a player who had 34 doubles and 16 home runs and struck out less than Hernandez did in 1987, when he batted .290 with the Mets, and the same number of times Olerud struck out with the Mariners in 2000, when he drove 103 runs. That player was Carlos Beltran. Another 20 hits and Beltran would have batted exactly .300.

Marty Noble is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

Melo · 10-21-2005, 07:06 AM

The latest on the possibility of a Manny deal:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2199067

If it's going to be a soap opera, I'd rather Omar just move on and focus on pitching. Offer Cameron, Diaz and Trachsel and if the Red Sox don't want it, forget it.

Melo · 10-21-2005, 08:06 AM

Also, the Phils and Wagner are supposedly close to a deal. They've reportedly agreed on 3 years for 30 Mil, perks and a no trade clause. Wagner wants to wait, however, to see what Philly does with the GM position and wants to see whats available on the market. So, even though he likes the terms, he's still expected to declare for free agency.

Luis_Rivera · 10-21-2005, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melo

Offer Cameron, Diaz...

I'm sure she can play the monster fine... but I'm not exactly confident that she'll be able to adequately replace Manny's bat in the middle of the lineup.

Melo · 10-21-2005, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

I'm sure she can play the monster fine... but I'm not exactly confident that she'll be able to adequately replace Manny's bat in the middle of the lineup.

Yeah, there is Something About Manny...

10-12-2005, 03:55 PM	#1
Melo All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Where the baned reside Posts: 1,428	New York Mets 2005-2006 offseason thread I thought I would kick this puppy off with my outlook on the Mets preseason. Now that the season is over, as frustrating as it was at times, I miss watching the games. I have high hopes for the 2006 Mets and have visions of Manny and Wagner dancing in my head. Catcher: Piazza is almost assuredly gone. There was some speculation that Piazza and Castro would share the job next year. When questioned during the White Sox/ Red Sox series, Mike said he was open to it and he said the Mets were open to it but there were a lot of options for both parties. Last week, Buster Olney said on ESPN radio that just about every GM in the league is assuming that Padres catcher Ramon Hernandez is signing with the Mets. Hernandez is a solid catcher offensively and sports a good arm. Brian Schneider is also a FA possibility, as well. First Base: IMO, this is the most critical position to evaluate this off season. Mike Jacobs, in 100Abs, did enough to merit serious consideration for the job. He’s left handed, has good power and has a good enough glove. But is he going to be good enough to be the man there? With guys like Overbay, Casey, Huff and possibly lesser known players like Detroit’s Pena available via trade, Omar will have to determine whether he wants to trade for someone or see if Jacobs can handle the job on a full time basis over an entire season. This decision could prove to be crucial to next years chances. Maybe Mientkiewicz and his 3.75M salary can be moved for some BP help. Supposedly, Florida will make Delgado available. Second Base: Offensively, no team was worse off at 2nd than the Mets. Matsui was injured a lot and Cairo isn’t a full time player. Neither player was particularly selective nor displayed much extra base power. Both have limited range in the field. Matsui is set to earn a stunning 8M next year and has a limited no trade clause in his contract. He can only be dealt to the Yankees or a west coast team. I had hoped that Matsui would gracefully bow out and maybe accept some kind of buy out to slink back to Japan but he showed enough in September that he may think he can still play on this level. Anderson Hernandez is a possibility but he needs to mature offensively and is probably a year away. Omar wants a high OBP guy to bat behind Reyes and 2B would be a nice place to get it from but Matsui’s big salary is a stumbling block. Shortstop: I think Reyes is one of the most exciting players in the game. Watch him go home to third or even first to home on a single as he did once this season and you’ll know what I mean. He’s just a lot of fun to watch. Supposedly he’s supposed to work on his bunting in the hopes that he could pick up 20-30 hits with better technique. Although he didn’t improve on the amount of walks he earned in the second half, he was more restrained and generally worked the count a little deeper. Defensively, I think he’ll earn a gold glove or two. Most importantly, Reyes stayed healthy and had no problems with his legs at all. Third Base: Wright can pretty much do it all: 27 HRs and over 40 doubles he’s patient and hit lefties as well as anyone in the NL. He runs well and can steal 20 bases. His defense improved dramatically in the second half as well. He’s a good teammate and already accepted as a leader. David Wright may well end up being the best all around player that the Mets ever produced. Wright would be perfect hitting 3rd in the lineup. Left Field: Cliffy played his ass off this year and won me over. He bought into Willie’s idea that he is the man and had to play every day. Floyd came into camp in great shape, stayed healthy and did everything asked of him, including fielding his position. Buster Olney has said that he believes Manny Ramirez is likely to become a Met and as silly as it may sound, I’d feel bad for Cliff if Manny came and Cliff had to move to RF. That’s how much I respect Cliff’s effort this past season. There is talk that after this past season that this would be the time to trade him because his value will never be this high. I’m not sure one could expect Cliff to duplicate this past season but I’m not sure his expected numbers for next year would be so easy to replace either. Suffice to say that Manny would be sweet but I’d be happy with Cliff too. Center Field: Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat: Beltran will probably never live up to the salary he is going to be paid. He’s not Manny, he’s not Vlad, he’s not Pujols. But he will be better than he was last year. If Beltran were to consistently give a .300 BA/.390 OBP/.525 SLG season, I don’t think anyone would complain. He’s done that before and he can do it again. If the Mets can get a legit cleanup guy and Wright can move to 3rd in the order Beltran can go back to the 2 hole where he is obviously more comfortable. Right Field: Cameron will be gone and Diaz is more valuable as trade bait. In fact, if Damon leaves Boston I can see both Cameron and Diaz going in a deal for Manny. Cameron is still highly regarded as a center fielder and despite injured will draw a lot of interest. I like Diaz, he has potential and improved defensively but he got on Willie’s bad side after some attitude problems and lack of hustle. If Manny doesn’t come and Floyd doesn't get shifted to right, I’m not sure what the plan will be. The FA market is thin so maybe Cameron or Diaz will get the job and I’m sure that only one will stay while the other goes. Bench: I’m hoping Woodward and Anderson stay. Both are versatile in the field and had success as pinch hitters. Cairo is most likely gone and I’d love to see the Mets get a real 4th outfielder and a real back up at first. The Mets could use a little power off the bench. I love Castro as the backup catcher. Rotation: How does a rotation of Pedro, Glavine, Benson, Heilman and Seo sound? I don’t know, right now it sounds pretty good to me. Assuming Pedro can be pedro and Glavine can come close to his 2nd half performance over an entire season, the Mets have two vets with a proven background. Benson benefited from the veteran presence of both those guys but seemed to tire as the season wound down. Heilman reverted to his old release point (3/4) and became a pitcher again. After a season of success in the pen, he’s going to Venezuela to start and lengthen his arm. Seo matured and even if he’s not as good as he was at the end of this past season, he makes a heckuva 5th starter. This leaves Trachsel and Zambrano on the outside looking in. Trachsel will be traded (supposedly the Red Sox were interested before the 8-31 deadline) and Zambrano may stay and throw out of the pen. Bullpen: One name…Billy Wagner. Everything else is up in the air. I’m sure Roberto Hernandez will be welcomed back. Juan Padilla was sharp and will have a spot. Looper will be gone and Heilman will be in the rotation. Heath Bell is a possibility but Randolph may have soured on him. Of all things, the bullpen has to fixed. Of course that holds true for just about every other team so it will all have to start with the closer. Wagner and BJ Ryan will be available and the Mets will get one of them. Before the season even ended, Wagner commented that he would be interested in playing for the Mets. He knows the Mets will pay and the Mets know he can close games better than any other FA out there. The Mets also need a good lefty set up guy out in the pen but again, so does every one else. Lefties are at a premium. Overall outlook: The NL East is highly competitive. The Braves are the Braves and someone has to knock them off sooner or later. The question is when it will happen? Atlanta is the model and everyone is trying to catch up to them. Philly has the most talented starting lineup in the division; with pitching they could be scary. Unless Florida dismantles again, they have the most talent overall. Washington played hard all year and should be a quality team again. The Mets got what they wanted this year. They improved and Omar will once again have an open checkbook with the new Mets sports station to debut next year. The FA market will be thin so it will be a mix of FA and trade and hopefully some of the kids can get a cup of coffee next year. Piazza will fall off the payroll this year and after next year, Glavine, Matsui, Floyd and Cameron will fall off and there will be a lot of openings for new blood like Petit, Milledge, Bannister, Hernandez and the like. Omar’s plan is to win now without sacrificing the future and although next years squad can be talented, key players have a certain amount of fragility so the youngsters could play a significant role. It will be interesting to see how Omar, Willie, et al approach next year after having a full season to evaluate the franchise and it’s talent. Last edited by Melo; 10-12-2005 at 04:01 PM.

10-13-2005, 11:14 AM	#7
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	Nice write-up, Melo. If the Mets make a couple of good moves in the offseason, I'll feel really good about the team next year. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

10-13-2005, 09:43 AM	#4
lgkeeper All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: My front porch lookin' in Posts: 1,138	I heard that they are seriously considering Heilman for the closer's role and - if not - they will absolutely go after BJ Ryan. Haven't heard much other than that.

10-14-2005, 08:54 PM	#9
Keith Stuart Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: N/A Posts: 208	I'm hoping the Mets stay patient and let the kids develop before selling the farm to get a Manny Ramirez. I don't mind them spending a boatload of money on a big name free agent, but I'd rather see the organization develop for a bit, before they start dealing the Milledge's and Petit's away.

10-16-2005, 02:43 AM	#10
Mycroft Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 193	Nice job Melo. I don't agree with about a third of what you said, but that only makes it interesting, right? The big differences are: First Base: I'd be happy with Jacobs starting and Mientkiewicz as a backup or platoon, since the Mets have had such awful luck at that postion (Vaughn, anyone?). Konerko is available as a FA if I'm not mistaken and Aubrey Huff has more potential as a trade candidate than the other two you mentioned. However, I'd be surprised if the Mets get much more production out of the position than they have had in recent years. So, if this is the critical postion, the Mets are screwed. .270/.330 with 25 HRs is the most I would expect. I betcha Delgado would end up like Vaughn at Shea. Second BasePersonally, I think the Mets would do well to just focus on acquiring a solid second baseman and the bullpen. Hernandez is a good fielder, but clearly not ready. I think Matsui is better than people make him out to be. He's a decent hitter at least and maybe he can become an adequate fielder. The position may also be a wash because I can't come up with a single name that would do what Melo wants from a second baseman. Crap. CloserRyan seems like a good option, but I'd rather see Heilman in the position. Gordon also expressed interest in being a closer, and he may be a decent one year option, until Heilman gets comfortable. Rotation I believe Trachsel will be back. So I'm pretty sure the rotation will be Martinez, Glavine, Benson, Trachsel and Seo. As long as Glavine and Martinez maintain their body of work in the second hald and all year, respectively I have no worries. Benson and Trachsel should give at least an average number of Quality Starts (If they can put the Mets in a position to win 60% of the time, not an unreasonable #, they'll do well. Seo is such an oddity that while I like him, I have no idea what will happen. Essentially, my analysis is that the Mets should not/can not/will not change too much. A first baseman and bullpen help may be all that we can hope for. I'm ambivalent about Ramirez joining the Mets because I can't see him putting up the identical numbers he had at Fenway compared to spacious Shead (Again, Mo Vaughn). And I consider him to be a significant fielding downgrade. I agree that the lineup should be Reyes/Beltran/Wright/Floyd but I guess then there would have to be a solid #5. Piazza would also be fine for one more year at the #5 spot, considering that catchers rarely are offensive powerhouses and I'm not particularly excited by what's in the market, but his ability to throw out runners is quite suspect. The Mets could make the playoffs in this division if they solidify one of the three major open positions (1B, 2B, CL) with one or two additions to the bullpen. They have starting depth that is probably the envy of the NL East. They have an offense that is probably geared bet towards small ball. Blah, reading things back, I doubt these potions will hold come November. So i reserve the right to change my opinion at any time .

10-16-2005, 07:39 AM	#12
Melo All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Where the baned reside Posts: 1,428	Mycroft, I can see everything you brought up as real possibilities and it will be a real interesting offseason, for sure. I think that when it comes down to it, the two key players will be be Heilman and Jacobs. Where they fit in and how they are perceived by management will play a big role in how the team gets altered. The thing with Manny is pretty simple, IMO. I don't think the Mets wil have to give any of their top flight young talent to get him. I've heard that there are some in the Red Sox heirarchy who are prepared to take a step back with this team and let some of the the older talent go. This faction would trade Manny, let Damon and the other FAs walk and try to establish the younger players in their system. With Damon gone, what if the price tag for Manny was Cameron, Trax, Diaz and a 2nd tier minor leaguer like Bannister or Lambin? I guess we'll know more after the Sox meet with Manny this week. Manny hits everywhere and he would make the whole lineup work. Reyes Beltran Wright Ramirez Floyd A legit guy like him allows Beltran, Wright and Floyd to hit in more natural spots in the order for them. Manny is a must and is better than a 50% chance of happening. And FWIW, I would hate to see Delgado coming here now. He had his chance and he passed. I agree that Hernandez isn't ready and agree that Matsui is likely. He actually looked OK until he got hurt again. He's making 8M next year and then he's gone. So maybe if Manny comes, the Mets leave 1b and 2nd base as they are, get a catcher and try to prop up the pen.

10-21-2005, 07:06 AM	#17
Melo All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Where the baned reside Posts: 1,428	The latest on the possibility of a Manny deal: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2199067 If it's going to be a soap opera, I'd rather Omar just move on and focus on pitching. Offer Cameron, Diaz and Trachsel and if the Red Sox don't want it, forget it.

10-21-2005, 08:06 AM	#18
Melo All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Where the baned reside Posts: 1,428	Also, the Phils and Wagner are supposedly close to a deal. They've reportedly agreed on 3 years for 30 Mil, perks and a no trade clause. Wagner wants to wait, however, to see what Philly does with the GM position and wants to see whats available on the market. So, even though he likes the terms, he's still expected to declare for free agency.