simple question about "who's hot/who's not"

Eckstein 4 Prez · 07-13-2022, 01:34 PM

I just realized I've been making an assumption about this for years and wanted to get some official clarification.

When the game identifies a player with a little fire or snowflake icon, that's descriptive and not prescriptive, correct? I.e., it's telling you what has happened in the player's last X at bats/innings, not telling you "this player has a penalty to their skills going forward." I've assumed that's the case since I've seen it happen many times where a player comes into a game "hot," then makes an out in his first PA and loses the designation, only to have it come back after he gets a hit the next time up.

Still, it'd be nice to be sure. Thanks!

JasonC23 · 07-13-2022, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eckstein 4 Prez

When the game identifies a player with a little fire or snowflake icon, that's descriptive and not prescriptive, correct? I.e., it's telling you what has happened in the player's last X at bats/innings, not telling you "this player has a penalty to their skills going forward."

Correct!

Syd Thrift · 07-13-2022, 01:45 PM

It is descriptive; however, there is an internal "hot" and "cold" status that has a small effect on player performance (which, if anything, should be larger, as players tend to be much streakier IRL compared to OOTP; however, this tends to get nothing but complaints from the "I demand OOTP be like Strat o Matic" crowd so I understand why the effect is not large).

kq76 · 07-13-2022, 01:48 PM

I'm pretty sure you're right, that it's only telling us what has happened. Yet, when I have a not star starting player with a snowflake I'll still often replace him for a few games with a backup. I know, it doesn't make much sense, but I think to myself, "let's give this other guy a shot, maybe he's better than we think". But stars, no, I'll let them ride it out.

Syd Thrift · 07-13-2022, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

I'm pretty sure you're right, that it's only telling us what has happened. Yet, when I have a not star starting player with a snowflake I'll still often replace him for a few games with a backup. I know, it doesn't make much sense, but I think to myself, "let's give this other guy a shot, maybe he's better than we think". But stars, no, I'll let them ride it out.

As noted, this isn't completely without merit: there is, and has been for many, many years now, an internal "hot" and "cold" setting, whose presence is implied by reading the personality attributes section of the manual: Work Ethic and Intelligence, for example, contribute to slump-busting. Managers and coaches also contribute to it, which is also I believe noted in the manual. I don't think there's any like mechanic to prolonging hot streaks, or at least there's nothing written down about it.

Again, the effects are small but there's an effect, so why not sit a guy? And as noted in my last post, if anything the effects need to be larger. Here's one study I found (although ISTR there being a whole ass book that gets into this; don't begin to remember the title):

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldou...rt_streaky.pdf

One season is a tiny sample size; however, what they say is that what they saw could mostly be explained to random chance but there were a few players who were especially streaky.

texasmame · 07-13-2022, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

It is descriptive; however, there is an internal "hot" and "cold" status that has a small effect on player performance (which, if anything, should be larger, as players tend to be much streakier IRL compared to OOTP; however, this tends to get nothing but complaints from the "I demand OOTP be like Strat o Matic" crowd so I understand why the effect is not large).

I still wish players would get "itchy" if not used for a long period of time. Their first game back with itchy status, they would either suck horribly or be amazing. Then, back to normal next game.

Syd Thrift · 07-13-2022, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by texasmame

I still wish players would get "itchy" if not used for a long period of time. Their first game back with itchy status, they would either suck horribly or be amazing. Then, back to normal next game.

There is 100% a "rust" effect built into the game already. I think it affects injury proneness more than anything else, which is a big part of why you want a guy who's missed a lot of time to play a few games in the minors before you put him back into your lineup (it's also why the single most injury-prone time is the first game of spring training), but I'm also like 99% positive that it makes pitchers more wild (I feel like I've even seen this with my own eyes although that could be confirmation bias) and probably has an effect on position players as well.

texasmame · 07-13-2022, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

There is 100% a "rust" effect built into the game already. I think it affects injury proneness more than anything else, which is a big part of why you want a guy who's missed a lot of time to play a few games in the minors before you put him back into your lineup (it's also why the single most injury-prone time is the first game of spring training), but I'm also like 99% positive that it makes pitchers more wild (I feel like I've even seen this with my own eyes although that could be confirmation bias) and probably has an effect on position players as well.

Is this in the documentation anywhere?

"Trust but verify."

Pelican · 07-13-2022, 05:13 PM

I of course tend to ride the “hot” player too long and bench the “cold” player when he is probably ready to snap out of it. I find it much harder with pitchers. Should I skip over a snowflake in the rotation? Do I bring in the red-hot setup guy early?

Totally agree on “rust”. I try not to let my bench guys linger too long without playing, even if I only sub them in late in not-close games. I figure bench guys need work, and starters could use a blow sometimes. Of course, starters let me know by showing as tired.

brotherblues · 07-13-2022, 05:37 PM

Are you guys sure the hot/cold icons don't have much impact on performance? I always thought the "handle success" and "handle failure" ratings affected how easily they could go cold or catch fire. Which would indicate that it does have an effect, otherwise there'd be no sense in having ratings that increase or decrease the likelyhood of triggering either icon.

jcard · 07-13-2022, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

…(although ISTR there being a whole ass book that gets into this; don't begin to remember the title)…

One of these?:

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the...hen/1131919667

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/hot...man/1103040787

Brad K · 07-14-2022, 06:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

It is descriptive; however, there is an internal "hot" and "cold" status that has a small effect on player performance (which, if anything, should be larger, as players tend to be much streakier IRL

It should not be larger. It shouldn't exist. How can this adjustment to randomness be justified in a game where the devs are otherwise married to randomness?

Do you think the difference in these two years should be even larger?

Tony Armas

1982

AB 575
HRs 44 (league leader)
BA .320
Slugging .617 (leage leader)

1983
AB 470
HRs 12
BA .179
Slugging .315

Sweed · 07-14-2022, 09:03 AM

Well, I think, there area a lot(?) of things that influence that randomness in small ways under the hood. I'm fine with that otherwise one should always play the higher rated player no matter what. IOW my 8 contact batter is 1 for his last 19 at the plate? Doesn't matter, he's still an 8 contact guy and outcomes are not changing. Some fluctuation here is realistic and IMHO being in the game is a good feature.

In present day I can compare that to my golf game. Sometimes my swing is in the groove and everything flows well from that. Next time out timing may be off but I can fight it to still score reasonably well. And sometimes it's all out of whack and I struggle to "get it back". Then out of the blue I crush a ball and from that point on my mind seems to lock in on the correct mechanics and I'm back to my normal game.

These things happen in all sports and should happen in OOTP. The fact that it's in OOTP and yet, people wonder "is it?" tells me it is being done "right".

fredbeene · 07-14-2022, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eckstein 4 Prez

I just realized I've been making an assumption about this for years and wanted to get some official clarification.

When the game identifies a player with a little fire or snowflake icon, that's descriptive and not prescriptive, correct? I.e., it's telling you what has happened in the player's last X at bats/innings, not telling you "this player has a penalty to their skills going forward." I've assumed that's the case since I've seen it happen many times where a player comes into a game "hot," then makes an out in his first PA and loses the designation, only to have it come back after he gets a hit the next time up.

Still, it'd be nice to be sure. Thanks!

How can i write a report that shows the total number of players that were HOT / Cold by team per year.
By a players career

David Watts · 07-14-2022, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fredbeene

How can i write a report that shows the total number of players that were HOT / Cold by team per year.
By a players career

Myself, I'd like to teach the world to sing.

BirdWatcher · 07-14-2022, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

Myself, I'd like to teach the world to sing.

How can I write a report that shows how many people you have actually taught to sing in the world this year, last year, any given year in the past for that matter, and which can also show how successfully you taught them, what songs they sing most frequently, and what their morale is like (better? worse? unchanged?) since you taught them this new skill?

I can't believe that after all of the years you have been alive there still isn't a way for me to run this report. Unthinkable. Disastrous. A complete scandal and something that for some reason nobody seems to want to address. Truly unconscionable.

brotherblues · 07-14-2022, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

How can I write a report that shows how many people you have actually taught to sing in the world this year, last year, any given year in the past for that matter, and which can also show how successfully you taught them, what songs they sing most frequently, and what their morale is like (better? worse? unchanged?) since you taught them this new skill?

I can't believe that after all of the years you have been alive there still isn't a way for me to run this report. Unthinkable. Disastrous. A complete scandal and something that for some reason nobody seems to want to address. Truly unconscionable.

Look, I don't care how you do it. I want that report on my desk by Monday. I also expect you to have rounded up all the singers and formed a choir. End of discussion.

David Watts · 07-14-2022, 02:05 PM

Of course, the only song I teach is a little ditty called David Watts by The Kinks, fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa

BirdWatcher · 07-14-2022, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

Of course, the only song I teach is a little ditty called David Watts by The Kinks, fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa

Well, as long as they sing it in perfect harmony, mission accomplished!

oldfatbaldguy · 07-15-2022, 05:08 AM

I love the mystery in the game. Do guys in slumps play worse? Yeah, it feels like it, until they snap out of it, which is unpredictable. Does rust matter? On balance, yeah, but that guy who missed spring training with an injury and is ready for Opening Day might just go 3-for-5 if you play him, too. Do mound visits help? Sometimes, maybe, unless you're just using it as a stalling tactic to get that guy in the bullpen from "warming" to "ready," in which case that almost always happens. But the reliever might still get shelled.

If there's a way to check under the hood and know what the odds are on any of this, I don't want to know about it.

07-13-2022, 01:34 PM	#1
Eckstein 4 Prez Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: The OC Posts: 6,347	simple question about "who's hot/who's not" I just realized I've been making an assumption about this for years and wanted to get some official clarification. When the game identifies a player with a little fire or snowflake icon, that's descriptive and not prescriptive, correct? I.e., it's telling you what has happened in the player's last X at bats/innings, not telling you "this player has a penalty to their skills going forward." I've assumed that's the case since I've seen it happen many times where a player comes into a game "hot," then makes an out in his first PA and loses the designation, only to have it come back after he gets a hit the next time up. Still, it'd be nice to be sure. Thanks! __________________ Looking for an insomnia cure? Check out my dynasty thread, The Dawn of American Professional Base Ball, 1871.

07-13-2022, 01:48 PM	#4
kq76 Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Vancouver, Canada Posts: 10,725	I'm pretty sure you're right, that it's only telling us what has happened. Yet, when I have a not star starting player with a snowflake I'll still often replace him for a few games with a backup. I know, it doesn't make much sense, but I think to myself, "let's give this other guy a shot, maybe he's better than we think". But stars, no, I'll let them ride it out. __________________ My OOTP Wishlist Your Recommended Team Nicknames, By City (A Crowdsourced Project)

07-13-2022, 05:13 PM	#9
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,386 Blog Entries: 1	I of course tend to ride the “hot” player too long and bench the “cold” player when he is probably ready to snap out of it. I find it much harder with pitchers. Should I skip over a snowflake in the rotation? Do I bring in the red-hot setup guy early? Totally agree on “rust”. I try not to let my bench guys linger too long without playing, even if I only sub them in late in not-close games. I figure bench guys need work, and starters could use a blow sometimes. Of course, starters let me know by showing as tired.

07-13-2022, 05:37 PM	#10
brotherblues All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 658	Are you guys sure the hot/cold icons don't have much impact on performance? I always thought the "handle success" and "handle failure" ratings affected how easily they could go cold or catch fire. Which would indicate that it does have an effect, otherwise there'd be no sense in having ratings that increase or decrease the likelyhood of triggering either icon.

07-14-2022, 09:03 AM	#13
Sweed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Iowa Posts: 6,149 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Well, I think, there area a lot(?) of things that influence that randomness in small ways under the hood. I'm fine with that otherwise one should always play the higher rated player no matter what. IOW my 8 contact batter is 1 for his last 19 at the plate? Doesn't matter, he's still an 8 contact guy and outcomes are not changing. Some fluctuation here is realistic and IMHO being in the game is a good feature. In present day I can compare that to my golf game. Sometimes my swing is in the groove and everything flows well from that. Next time out timing may be off but I can fight it to still score reasonably well. And sometimes it's all out of whack and I struggle to "get it back". Then out of the blue I crush a ball and from that point on my mind seems to lock in on the correct mechanics and I'm back to my normal game. These things happen in all sports and should happen in OOTP. The fact that it's in OOTP and yet, people wonder "is it?" tells me it is being done "right".

07-14-2022, 02:05 PM	#18
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 8,903	Of course, the only song I teach is a little ditty called David Watts by The Kinks, fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa

07-15-2022, 05:08 AM	#20
oldfatbaldguy Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 339	I love the mystery in the game. Do guys in slumps play worse? Yeah, it feels like it, until they snap out of it, which is unpredictable. Does rust matter? On balance, yeah, but that guy who missed spring training with an injury and is ready for Opening Day might just go 3-for-5 if you play him, too. Do mound visits help? Sometimes, maybe, unless you're just using it as a stalling tactic to get that guy in the bullpen from "warming" to "ready," in which case that almost always happens. But the reliever might still get shelled. If there's a way to check under the hood and know what the odds are on any of this, I don't want to know about it.