The 2023 NFL Season Thread

[monkeyman576]

Week 3: Cash on hand: $970

NYG at SF(-10.5) - The 49ers seem to be one of the NFLs best teams and they're at home, so I'll go with them. SF $40

ATL at DET(-3.5) - Eh. This one could go either way. The Lions beat the Chiefs then laid a clunker against the seahawks. I guess I'll go with the home team. DET $5

LAC at MIN(+1) - Another one that could go either way. MIN $5.

NOS at GB(-2) - Lambeau Field is always tough to play in GB $30.

HOU at JAX(-8.5) - Big spread but I think Jacksonville can cover it since Houston is going for the top overall pick. JAX $20

IND at BAL(-8.5) - This seems about the right spread, could go either way but I'llg o with the better team I guess. BAL $20

TEN at CLE(-4.5) - Nick Chubbs injury could hurt the Browns chances here. TEN $20

DEN at MIA(-7) - Denver might not be great but they tend to have close games. DEN $30

NE at NYJ(-2.5) - I'm always hesitant to bet on the Jets. NE $10

BUF at WAS(+6.5) - Commanders bad as always this year. BUF $50

CHI at KC(-13) - As long as the cheifs use their starters I see them covering. KC $100.

DAL at ARI(+12) - Ditto. DAL $100

CAR at SEA(-6) - It's beginning to look more like Seattle's loss to the Rams was an outlier. $40 SEA

PIT at LAR(+0) - Don't like to ever bet ont the Raiders either. PIT $5.

PHI at TB(+5.5) - Eagles are solid and made it to the superbowl. PHI $50

LAR at CIN(-2) - Burrow is not 100%. LAR $5

Total at stake: $520...I have a lot on the line this week. I need to make up for last week. Famous last words?

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

My understanding is that you are not allowed, regardless of the situation. The reason I say this is because of what I heard from a referee. You know the ref the commentators go to during the game on occasion? He said it was the defender's responsibility to not let it happen.

I have little respect for the rules committee. I have even less respect for the refs concerning personal fouls. They might have a 50% success rate. That sucks. Most people would be fired (not including meteorologists) from their jobs.

When refs explain ref decisions it sounds in my ear like police investigations into police brutality or excessive force.

Edit:I looked up the rules.

1.A defender cannot initiate a roll or lunge and forcibly hit the passer in the knee area or below, even if he is being contacted by another player.

2.It is not a foul if the defender swipes or grabs a passer in the knee area or below in an attempt to tackle him, provided he does not make forcible contact with the helmet, shoulder, chest, or forearm.

What is the dif between a "swipe" and a "forcible hit"? My guess is you can only touch the QB w/your hands.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Are you a Steelers fan? Because I didn't see any PI there.

Nope. In fact a) Browns fans would be the ones pissed at the non-call, and b) I don't particularly like either team. I just don't like refs swallowing their whistle at key moments, and/or generally making poor calls/non-calls. At any rate, to each his own, but I can't see how anyone could look objectively look at a replay and not see PI. But hey, if we have Angel Hernandez calling baseball games and dozens of incompetent NBA refs, there are surely fans & other observers out there making similarly incompetent judegment calls

I also found another angle of the play that shows that - despite the pulling of the jersey by the the Steelers' DB Porter, Browns' WR Peoples-Jones' left hand came maybe 3 inches from contacting the ball as it was sailing past him. So any contention that the pass was uncatchable - which the refs did not indicate - would not be valid.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by thehef

Nope. In fact a) Browns fans would be the ones pissed at the non-call, and b) I don't particularly like either team. I just don't like refs swallowing their whistle at key moments, and/or generally making poor calls/non-calls. At any rate, to each his own, but I can't see how anyone could look objectively look at a replay and not see PI. But hey, if we have Angel Hernandez calling baseball games and dozens of incompetent NBA refs, there are surely fans & other observers out there making similarly incompetent judegment calls

I also found another angle of the play that shows that - despite the pulling of the jersey by the the Steelers' DB Porter, Browns' WR Peoples-Jones' left hand came maybe 3 inches from contacting the ball as it was sailing past him. So any contention that the pass was uncatchable - which the refs did not indicate - would not be valid.

After finding a better angle, and watching it in slow motion, now I see it. But I can totally see how a ref might not call that at full speed. Unless you're totally sure, you don't want to gift a team new life. It's also possible the ref didn't see the DB grab his jersey. Because they usually call that. As seen at the end of the last SB.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

When refs explain ref decisions it sounds in my ear like police investigations into police brutality or excessive force.

Edit:I looked up the rules.



What is the dif between a "swipe" and a "forcible hit"? My guess is you can only touch the QB w/your hands.

Forcible is any hard hit. So if the defender is already on the ground, he can wrap him up or swipe at his legs.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

After finding a better angle, and watching it in slow motion, now I see it. But I can totally see how a ref might not call that at full speed. Unless you're totally sure, you don't want to gift a team new life. It's also possible the ref didn't see the DB grab his jersey. Because they usually call that. As seen at the end of the last SB.

I hear you. But at least two refs were looking right at it. I suppose it's possible the closer-to-the-camera-ref didn't see it. But both of them? Maybe... We'll never know what would've happened had the call been made. IOW, would Cleveland had scored a TD or not? But it's not a reach to say the game was essentially decided by a blown non-call. Whether it was a case of the refs simply not seeing it, or seeing it and exercising very poor judgement, who knows?

I mean, Watson made some really good plays that night and also made some really dumb ones. The radio commentary guy (working with Kevin Harlan; I think it was Kurt Warner) pointed our very early in the game that many of today's mobile QB's have not learned the art of throwing the ball away. Not that Warner would have first hand knowledge of a mobile QB but that's a pretty good point IMO, and Watson last night was Exhibit A... So neither a game-winning TD drive nor a couple of sacks-he-shouldn't-have-taken & a game-ending pick would've been surprising. That's just who he is.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by thehef

I hear you. But at least two refs were looking right at it. I suppose it's possible the closer-to-the-camera-ref didn't see it. But both of them? Maybe... We'll never know what would've happened had the call been made. IOW, would Cleveland had scored a TD or not? But it's not a reach to say the game was essentially decided by a blown non-call. Whether it was a case of the refs simply not seeing it, or seeing it and exercising very poor judgement, who knows?

I mean, Watson made some really good plays that night and also made some really dumb ones. The radio commentary guy (working with Kevin Harlan; I think it was Kurt Warner) pointed our very early in the game that many of today's mobile QB's have not learned the art of throwing the ball away. Not that Warner would have first hand knowledge of a mobile QB but that's a pretty good point IMO, and Watson last night was Exhibit A... So neither a game-winning TD drive nor a couple of sacks-he-shouldn't-have-taken & a game-ending pick would've been surprising. That's just who he is.

I'd rather a blown call, or a non call, than the wrong call. As a WR it's your job to get separation. Not just run up the field and hope the ref throws a flag. So I don't really care if they miss a call, I care when they make the wrong call.

Wrong calls are always damaging 100% of the time. Because a flag shouldn't have been thrown. Not always true with non calls. In many cases, like this one, he's not catching the ball anyway. Do I know for sure? Absolutely not. But if we could have a do over without the PI, I'd bet a ton of money that it's still incomplete. That's why it doesn't bother me. And if you could actually do this, Fanduel or Draftkings would have that bet at -2500 easily.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

I'd rather a blown call, or a non call, than the wrong call. As a WR it's your job to get separation. Not just run up the field and hope the ref throws a flag. So I don't really care if they miss a call, I care when they make the wrong call.

Wrong calls are always damaging 100% of the time. Because a flag shouldn't have been thrown. Not always true with non calls. In many cases, like this one, he's not catching the ball anyway. Do I know for sure? Absolutely not. But if we could have a do over without the PI, I'd bet a ton of money that it's still incomplete. That's why it doesn't bother me. And if you could actually do this, Fanduel or Draftkings would have that bet at -2500 easily.

Not so sure about this. I'm continually amazed at the catches WR's make - routinely - these days. Given that P-J was within inches of touching the ball while being pulled (interfered with) in the opposite direction, I'd say it's 50-50. I mean, who really knows? But I think a blown non-call is just as bad as a blown call. Both are wrong. Both can affect games.

And regarding separation, who's to say P-J wasn't in the process of getting separation when he was mugged by Porter? Looked like it to me...

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Are you a Steelers fan? Because I didn't see any PI there.

I have absolutely no sympathy for any team that chooses to start Deshaun Watson. Anyway, that wasn't even the worst game-ending non-call on a PI this week, not by a longshot. I am no Russell Wilson fan (although my actively rooting for his team to fail is over now that my guys got their picks) but after that suuuuuuper flukey Hail Mary he completed, he threw a dart to an open receiver for the 2 point conversion, only to lose because the guy got completely mauled. I've seen people say that RW missed a wide open Jerry Jeudy but I'm sorry, the guy he actually found was also wide open (also Jeudy was open over the middle, a spot that Wilson is notoriously bad at picking up). While I'd love to cast the Malcolm Butler parallel (just kidding I never ever want to see that play again), the Broncos absolutely deserved to put that game into overtime.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I have absolutely no sympathy for any team that chooses to start Deshaun Watson. Anyway, that wasn't even the worst game-ending non-call on a PI this week, not by a longshot. I am no Russell Wilson fan (although my actively rooting for his team to fail is over now that my guys got their picks) but after that suuuuuuper flukey Hail Mary he completed, he threw a dart to an open receiver for the 2 point conversion, only to lose because the guy got completely mauled. I've seen people say that RW missed a wide open Jerry Jeudy but I'm sorry, the guy he actually found was also wide open (also Jeudy was open over the middle, a spot that Wilson is notoriously bad at picking up). While I'd love to cast the Malcolm Butler parallel (just kidding I never ever want to see that play again), the Broncos absolutely deserved to put that game into overtime.

You're right. In slow motion you can see it was PI. At full speed it looks like around the same time the ball gets there. We're talking a split second here. They're not always going to call that.

[monkeyman576]

Week 3: Cash on hand: $970

NYG at SF(-10.5) - SF $40 SF 30, NYG 12 (W) $1010

ATL at DET(-3.5) - Eh. This one could go either way. The Lions beat the Chiefs then laid a clunker against the seahawks. I guess I'll go with the home team. DET $5

LAC at MIN(+1) - Another one that could go either way. MIN $5.

NOS at GB(-2) - Lambeau Field is always tough to play in GB $30.

HOU at JAX(-8.5) - Big spread but I think Jacksonville can cover it since Houston is going for the top overall pick. JAX $20

IND at BAL(-8.5) - This seems about the right spread, could go either way but I'llg o with the better team I guess. BAL $20

TEN at CLE(-4.5) - Nick Chubbs injury could hurt the Browns chances here. TEN $20

DEN at MIA(-7) - Denver might not be great but they tend to have close games. DEN $30

NE at NYJ(-2.5) - I'm always hesitant to bet on the Jets. NE $10

BUF at WAS(+6.5) - Commanders bad as always this year. BUF $50

CHI at KC(-13) - As long as the cheifs use their starters I see them covering. KC $100.

DAL at ARI(+12) - Ditto. DAL $100

CAR at SEA(-6) - It's beginning to look more like Seattle's loss to the Rams was an outlier. $40 SEA

PIT at LAR(+0) - Don't like to ever bet ont the Raiders either. PIT $5.

PHI at TB(+5.5) - Eagles are solid and made it to the superbowl. PHI $50

LAR at CIN(-2) - Burrow is not 100%. LAR $5

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

You're right. In slow motion you can see it was PI. At full speed it looks like around the same time the ball gets there. We're talking a split second here. They're not always going to call that.

True but to the larger point, stop whining about bad karma, team that acquired Deshaun Watson.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

True but to the larger point, stop whining about bad karma, team that acquired Deshaun Watson.

Yeah, talk about selling your soul. Do they have no shame? They think he's good, so nothing else matters?

Sadly, the Browns are one of the best teams in the AFC.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Yeah, talk about selling your soul. Do they have no shame? They think he's good, so nothing else matters?

The puzzling part to me is that the Browns gave that massive contract to a player of of highly questionable character (to put it gently) who is merely a good but not great QB. I mean, it doesn't excuse them if they were to overlook the character component for the 2nd coming of Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but at least it'd be less of a head-scratcher...

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Sadly, the Browns are one of the best teams in the AFC.

Well, let's hope not... So far, they beat a Bengals team that hasn't looked good yet, and they lost - in pretty ugly fashion - to a Steelers team that also doesn't look very good... So I'd say the Brownies are somewhere in the middle of the AFC pack at this point.

[Syd Thrift]

He seemed like he was somewhere in between good and great in Texas. It's clear why they picked him up. The fact that he's not even good so far in Cleveland - I think he's quite a bit worse than Russell Wilson so far - is just the karmic icing on the karma cake.

[thehef]

In the Lions thread, "elite" QB's were discussed... So on that subject:

Some of the best QB's are off to subpar starts...

Allen was outstanding against the Raidahs, but was brutal against the Jets...
Rodgers, 4 snaps & out for the year...
Herbert is pretty much himself and is elite in my book, but... the 0-2 start...
Watson was decent against Cincy, but pretty brutal against Pitt...
Burrow has definitely struggled coming back from the injury, but should get back to his Top-5 QB status...
Mahomes is still king even though his start has to be considered a bit slow...

Then we have...

Wilson, who might be looking at a bounce-back year... despite the 0-2 start...
Tua, who (despite my own doubts) has his name being batted around in the way-too-early MVP discussions...
Lawrence, who's looks pretty darn good...
Dak, who has always been, IMO, a notch below elite, but I suppose he could be rising, tho it's only been two games...
Howell, who is off to a real solid start...
Hurts... doing what he does, solid but unspectacularly...
Cousins has put up some really nice numbers in two losses...
L Jackson, who may have ascended to elite status in the 2023 NFL simply because somebody has to round out the top 5 or 10 QB's...
Mayfield... should we just give the MVP to him now?

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by thehef

Well, let's hope not... So far, they beat a Bengals team that hasn't looked good yet, and they lost - in pretty ugly fashion - to a Steelers team that also doesn't look very good... So I'd say the Brownies are somewhere in the middle of the AFC pack at this point.

It's all going to depend on the QB play. They have one of the best rosters in the AFC. They can beat anyone. But again, it's all going to come down to their QB. I was really glad Pitt won, but they got lucky.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by thehef

In the Lions thread, "elite" QB's were discussed... So on that subject:

Some of the best QB's are off to subpar starts...

Allen was outstanding against the Raidahs, but was brutal against the Jets...
Rodgers, 4 snaps & out for the year...
Herbert is pretty much himself and is elite in my book, but... the 0-2 start...
Watson was decent against Cincy, but pretty brutal against Pitt...
Burrow has definitely struggled coming back from the injury, but should get back to his Top-5 QB status...
Mahomes is still king even though his start has to be considered a bit slow...

Then we have...

Wilson, who might be looking at a bounce-back year... despite the 0-2 start...
Tua, who (despite my own doubts) has his name being batted around in the way-too-early MVP discussions...
Lawrence, who's looks pretty darn good...
Dak, who has always been, IMO, a notch below elite, but I suppose he could be rising, tho it's only been two games...
Howell, who is off to a real solid start...
Hurts... doing what he does, solid but unspectacularly...
Cousins has put up some really nice numbers in two losses...
L Jackson, who may have ascended to elite status in the 2023 NFL simply because somebody has to round out the top 5 or 10 QB's...
Mayfield... should we just give the MVP to him now?

Some QBs don't do well when hurried or under pressure. Josh Allen is a turnover machine going back to last season.

I kind of feel bad for Kenny Pickett. Played two of the best defenses to start off the season. But looked really good in pre-season

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Some QBs don't do well when hurried or under pressure. Josh Allen is a turnover machine going back to last season.

Allen is a great QB, other than that one weakness. Which is kinda significant

Originally Posted by Ragnar

I kind of feel bad for Kenny Pickett. Played two of the best defenses to start off the season. But looked really good in pre-season

Yep. Put Pickett in Miami and Tua in Pittsburgh and I don't think there'd have been much difference in the results to date...

[Cobra Mgr]

How do you not go to sleep drunk every Sunday night if you are a Charger fan?