2007 New York Yankees Thread - Page 59

CMH · 07-04-2007, 01:29 PM

[Crazy Yankee fan]

He's our future closer!

[/crazy Yankee fan]

Seriously, though, it would be very nice to have a quality reliever in the pen from the farm system. I know the Yanks are building their rotation in the farm but with what we've been seeing from Proctor, Farnsworth, and the rest...this is necessary.

I wonder who the scout is that found this kid. The Yanks got lucky finding Bruney when Arizona lost confidence in him and now Ramirez out of the Indy League/LA Angels. Good stuff.

darkhorse · 07-05-2007, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CommishJoe

WOW! With stats like that, I'd love to see what he could do at the ML level. Their bullpen can't get much worse.

How'd that turn out?

Prior81 · 07-05-2007, 04:56 PM

These guys just aren't playing the game the right way.

Luis_Rivera · 07-05-2007, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YankeePride

The Yanks got lucky finding Bruney when Arizona lost confidence in him and now Ramirez out of the Indy League/LA Angels.

Bruney walks wayyyyyyyyyyyy too many guys to be any good. He's also an insane fly ball pitcher. His success won't last long.

CommishJoe · 07-05-2007, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

How'd that turn out?

In a very small sample size, perfectly

CMH · 07-05-2007, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

Bruney walks wayyyyyyyyyyyy too many guys to be any good. He's also an insane fly ball pitcher. His success won't last long.

I think you said the same thing last year.

But, I get it. However, I don't mind if he continues being lucky.

Luis_Rivera · 07-05-2007, 06:44 PM

I wouldn't count on it, homie!

97.9% of his baserunners were left on base last year. This year it's 86.5%. That typically regresses to the low 70's. His HR/FB% is about 4% as well. That's VERY low.

On the plus side, I'm pretty high on Edwar!

Luis_Rivera · 07-05-2007, 06:58 PM

By the way - this was the only other post I had included Bruney's name in!

The good news is that he must rebound, because he's in the top 5 in saves in 2010.

CMH · 07-05-2007, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

By the way - this was the only other post I had included Bruney's name in!

The good news is that he must rebound, because he's in the top 5 in saves in 2010.

Ha, that's great!

1998 Yankees · 07-05-2007, 09:52 PM

Gosh, what the heck are we going to do with Igawa?

Tony M · 07-06-2007, 05:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

Gosh, what the heck are we going to do with Igawa?

Give him time to settle. Dice-K had a few ropey outings to start with and the occassional extremely bad inning. Now look at how Dice-K is doing, he's become a very good and consistent pitcher the last month or so.

Luis_Rivera · 07-06-2007, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsoxford

Give him time to settle. Dice-K had a few ropey outings to start with and the occassional extremely bad inning. Now look at how Dice-K is doing, he's become a very good and consistent pitcher the last month or so.

Difference is Matsuzaka had a lot of bad luck. Anyone looking at his numbers coulda told you that Matsuzaka was going to end up where he is now. Igawa's peripherals look like ****. He's walking too many guys and giving up homers.

I'd still give him time to show what he's got... because he was really good in Japan. But, it looks like the scouts might have been right on this one. His stuff might not be good enough for the majors.

Tony M · 07-06-2007, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

Igawa's peripherals look like ****. He's walking too many guys and giving up homers.

So did Beckett in his first year in the AL (giving up the homers that is), and look how he's doing now he's adjusted his pitching. Give Igawa a month at Scranton-Wilkes and then let him finish the season in the majors. If he hasn't adjusted by the end of spring training next season then he's possibly a lost cause.

Luis_Rivera · 07-06-2007, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsoxford

So did Beckett in his first year in the AL (giving up the homers that is), and look how he's doing now he's adjusted his pitching. Give Igawa a month at Scranton-Wilkes and then let him finish the season in the majors. If he hasn't adjusted by the end of spring training next season then he's possibly a lost cause.

Beckett was giving up an inordinate number of HR/FB. Igawa isn't... Although his number is high (14+%) he's actually going to give up a lot because he is a fly ball pitcher. Beckett isn't.

Also, we knew the problem with Beckett was the curve wasn't working. If the Yankees coaching staff knows something like that then, sure... try and fix the problem. Otherwise, I'd definitely let him show what he's got... I never would make a complete judgment on a player after ~45 IP. However, I wouldn't suggest that it's just the jitters. This situation is completely different than Matsuzaka's or Beckett's. Hell, I still considered Mats a top 5 pitcher in the league when his ERA was ~4.50.

1998 Yankees · 07-06-2007, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

I'd still give him time to show what he's got... because he was really good in Japan. But, it looks like the scouts might have been right on this one. His stuff might not be good enough for the majors.

I know this is going to touch off another debate, but I will say it again because I firmly believe it: the Japanese leagues are not on the same level as MLB (yet). Their best players can come over here and do well. Their merely good players are no guarantees in the United States, however.

I've seen Igawa enough now and although I'm no scout, I know major league pitching when I see it. Simply said, I don't think he is good enough to play in this league. I hope to be proven wrong, however.

Joshv02 · 07-06-2007, 11:21 AM

Yeah, but people don't think the Japanese leagues are on the same level as the MLBs. And they sholdn't be - the US has a wider talent pool to draw from. People generally think the Japanese leagues are about AAA or AAA+.

Luis_Rivera · 07-06-2007, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

I know this is going to touch off another debate, but I will say it again because I firmly believe it: the Japanese leagues are not on the same level as MLB (yet). Their best players can come over here and do well. Their merely good players are no guarantees in the United States, however.

Of course they're not... they're probably slightly better than AAA level. And of course AAA level isn't at ML level, but we can project major league numbers based on AAA and even AA level performances. Of course, very often we need to balance this projection against scouting to refine it, but it's not like it's a crapshoot pulling these guys from AAA or the Nippon league.

As you move up the talent ladder, scouting becomes less important, and performance more important. While his performance was there in Japan (he was one of the best pitchers there) there were scouting concerns that tempered the enthusiasm over here. Now, it's beginning to seem that those concerns may have merit.

1998 Yankees · 07-06-2007, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsoxford

Give Igawa a month at Scranton-Wilkes and then let him finish the season in the majors. If he hasn't adjusted by the end of spring training next season then he's possibly a lost cause.

That sounds like a plan. But, what do they do if worse comes to worst, just release him and pay the $$$? It's hard to fathom that on this scale of investment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

Also, we knew the problem with Beckett was the curve wasn't working. If the Yankees coaching staff knows something like that then, sure... try and fix the problem. Otherwise, I'd definitely let him show what he's got...

You are aware that they already sent this guy down to Single-A (as a convenience to the pitching coaches in Tampa, though, not as an indication of his quality) to be taught a better delivery?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

Of course they're not... they're probably slightly better than AAA level. And of course AAA level isn't at ML level, but we can project major league numbers based on AAA and even AA level performances. Of course, very often we need to balance this projection against scouting to refine it, but it's not like it's a crapshoot pulling these guys from AAA or the Nippon league.

As you move up the talent ladder, scouting becomes less important, and performance more important. While his performance was there in Japan (he was one of the best pitchers there) there were scouting concerns that tempered the enthusiasm over here. Now, it's beginning to seem that those concerns may have merit.

There's a couple of things wrong with this, though.

First, dealing with AAA prospects usually means a minimal outlay of cash; even a minimum major league contract is easily absorbed if things don't work out. Viewing the Nippon leagues as AAA and investing millions in what are therefore just prospects is a waste.

Second, Igawa is about to turn 28. Another reason why the AAA prospect analogy does not work. He is not going to get better from this point on, I would bet. That makes him not a prospect any more.

That's why I don't think the AAA prospect analogy works. Due to the money involved, the only thing that makes sense is equality of the leagues, and I don't think that works either. Matsuzaka (and Iwamura, whom I note is not doing poorly) notwithstanding, I think MLB will be, must be, more selective about recruiting only the very best from over there in the future.

Sure, Igawa dominated in Japan but you said scouts had concerns. The Yankees should have listened to them in that case, realizing that being very good in Japan is no guarantee of the same success in the U.S.

100% hindsight on my part, of course, except I remember saying similar things here this past winter.

Luis_Rivera · 07-06-2007, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

First, dealing with AAA prospects usually means a minimal outlay of cash; even a minimum major league contract is easily absorbed if things don't work out. Viewing the Nippon leagues as AAA and investing millions in what are therefore just prospects is a waste.

Second, Igawa is about to turn 28. Another reason why the AAA prospect analogy does not work. He is not going to get better from this point on, I would bet. That makes him not a prospect any more.

That's why I don't think the AAA prospect analogy works. Due to the money involved, the only thing that makes sense is equality of the leagues, and I don't think that works either. Matsuzaka (and Iwamura, whom I note is not doing poorly) notwithstanding, I think MLB will be, must be, more selective about recruiting only the very best from over there in the future.

You're missing my point... I'm not making an analogy to defend their signing of Igawa. I was just trying to say it's not a crapshoot. We can reasonably project how players are going to perform over here from there. Not quite as well from our own minor leagues, but good enough.

As for the secondary point you're making about the money, sure that risk needs to be assessed and when considering the money that a player coming from there is worth, that risk needs to be injected into the analysis. You have zero disagreement coming from here. I think you thought I was implying something that I wasn't.

1998 Yankees · 07-06-2007, 12:59 PM

I hear you.

On a related topic, how did you feel about Matsuzaka early on. Was it really always "bad luck" and "Hell, I still considered Mats a top 5 pitcher in the league when his ERA was ~4.50" or did you have any doubts?

I mean, I want to give Igawa every chance but I have never felt very good about him, from the very first game that he pitched for us.

07-06-2007, 11:21 AM	#1176
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,082	Yeah, but people don't think the Japanese leagues are on the same level as the MLBs. And they sholdn't be - the US has a wider talent pool to draw from. People generally think the Japanese leagues are about AAA or AAA+. __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

07-04-2007, 01:29 PM	#1161
CMH Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 5,057	[Crazy Yankee fan] He's our future closer! [/crazy Yankee fan] Seriously, though, it would be very nice to have a quality reliever in the pen from the farm system. I know the Yanks are building their rotation in the farm but with what we've been seeing from Proctor, Farnsworth, and the rest...this is necessary. I wonder who the scout is that found this kid. The Yanks got lucky finding Bruney when Arizona lost confidence in him and now Ramirez out of the Indy League/LA Angels. Good stuff.

07-05-2007, 04:56 PM	#1163
Prior81 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 302	These guys just aren't playing the game the right way.

07-05-2007, 06:44 PM	#1167
Luis_Rivera Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,177	I wouldn't count on it, homie! 97.9% of his baserunners were left on base last year. This year it's 86.5%. That typically regresses to the low 70's. His HR/FB% is about 4% as well. That's VERY low. On the plus side, I'm pretty high on Edwar!

07-05-2007, 06:58 PM	#1168
Luis_Rivera Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,177	By the way - this was the only other post I had included Bruney's name in! The good news is that he must rebound, because he's in the top 5 in saves in 2010.

07-05-2007, 09:52 PM	#1170
1998 Yankees Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Yankee Stadium, back in 1998. Posts: 8,645	Gosh, what the heck are we going to do with Igawa?

07-06-2007, 12:59 PM	#1180
1998 Yankees Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Yankee Stadium, back in 1998. Posts: 8,645	I hear you. On a related topic, how did you feel about Matsuzaka early on. Was it really always "bad luck" and "Hell, I still considered Mats a top 5 pitcher in the league when his ERA was ~4.50" or did you have any doubts? I mean, I want to give Igawa every chance but I have never felt very good about him, from the very first game that he pitched for us.