The 2023 NFL Season Thread

[cephasjames]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Yeah I know. But what was it, a 45 or 46 yard FG? But I concede that point.



We can't know what would have happened. But IMO if he hits that FG the Lions win that game. All that other crap never happens. Because the momentum never shifts. You just told the 49ers that halfway through the 3rd they've gained no ground. But instead they gave them life. And when it rains it pours.

There is zero chance of knowing the bold.

The 49ers scoring on five straight drives is not the result of one failed fourth down attempt. The Lions only scoring one touchdown in the second half (which basically happened in garbage time) is not the result of one failed fourth down attempt. A lot more things have to happen for those things to take place.

[pilight]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

Yeah I know. But what was it, a 45 or 46 yard FG? But I concede that point.

A 46 yarder. Badgley hasn't hit a FG over 45 in an outdoor game since 2020.

[Amazin69]

If you don't trust the kicker, then punt. Why not pin SF back, make them work harder?

And given that most of Detroit's Go-For-It successes were against teams that were NOT #1 seeds, using those stats to justify Dan being "try, try again" seems dubious at best. The stat Dan should have been thinking about was the 0-for-1 he had been at trying it in THIS game.

[Amazin69]

Originally Posted by cephasjames

The 49ers scoring on five straight drives is not the result of one failed fourth down attempt. The Lions only scoring one touchdown in the second half (which basically happened in garbage time) is not the result of one failed fourth down attempt. A lot more things have to happen for those things to take place.

Personally, I would think that having your defense falling apart is an argument AGAINST being stupidly aggressive (in ways that have already failed) with the offense and a reason to avoid taking unnecessary chances. But that's just me.

(And if you don't think your PK can hit a 45-yarder outdoors, maybe you should have done something about that beforehand? Kickers have been hitting 45-yarders for a very long time. You should be able to have a half-dozen capable kickers on speed-dial.)

[thehef]

I think the overlooked part of this debate is that if Campbell had gone against his go-for-it-on-4th philosophy, settled for FG attempts, and the Lions had still lost, he'd have been skewered - probably more so than he is now - for coaching conservatively & against his season-long aggressive gut. And the players - who are backing him now - might be wondering what happened to their coach in those moments that caused him to not believe in them as he did all season long...

[cephasjames]

Originally Posted by Amazin69

Personally, I would think that having your defense falling apart is an argument AGAINST being stupidly aggressive (in ways that have already failed) with the offense and a reason to avoid taking unnecessary chances. But that's just me.

For the second fourth down attempt, this is where my head went. Down 3? Get 3 and tie it up. But for the first fourth down attempt, Detroit's defense hadn't fallen apart yet. It made sense to stick with the type of play they'd played all season.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by cephasjames

For the second fourth down attempt, this is where my head went. Down 3? Get 3 and tie it up. But for the first fourth down attempt, Detroit's defense hadn't fallen apart yet. It made sense to stick with the type of play they'd played all season.

Agree. The thing about that ^^^ course of action would've been that by going for it the 1st time and kicking the FG the 2nd time, there wouldn't really be any logic to criticizing him for coaching conservatively (if they had still lost). He could legitimately point to going for it the first time, and the fact that his kicker attempted plenty of FG's during the regular season (indicating that he called for plenty of FG's during the regular season), and so going for the tie there "just felt like the right move, and I had faith in our guys that with 7 minutes to go in a tie game, we would win."

[Syd Thrift]

So after the Hawks make the right choice and bring in Mike "WHAT A FOOL BELIEEEEEEEEEEEVES" MacDonald, the Communists sign... Dan Quinn. Hey, best of luck to Quinn but two reasons why I'm glad the Beltway Insiders signed him and not Seattle:

1. As a team we (by which I mean the Seahawks, which I am a member of did you know?) are turning the page on Pete Carroll and bringing Quinn back, memories of the LOB or no, does not help with that. We had a team last year which, in spite of being coached by Carroll, did not know how to tackle. How does that happen? However it does, I don't think bringing back a Carroll disciple fixes it.

2. The absolute uncontained glee Shanny showed after learning the Cowboys got defensively destroyed in the divisional round by the Lions is just... man, Shanny. Show me on the doll where DQ hurt you? Like if anything I think you don't get nearly enough grief for not running a single running play in the second half of the 28-3 game. That said, if Seattle hired Quinn I've got every belief in the world that BANANAHAN would plan the entire season around embarrassing the Seahawks twice.

The upside of the Marxist/Leninist/Trotskyites signing Quinn, too, is that as a defensive-minded coach, he'll very likely just leave most of the running of the offense to the true star of his league, Eric Bienemy. I was half-jokingly but only half-jokingly demanding that the Hawks go after him themselves. The guy was the OC for a Chiefs team who, the year after he left, looked only good instead of the best offensive in NFL history, and in his first year in Washington he made a team led by Sam freaking Howell look miiiiiiiiiiiiiiles better than it had any right to look.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

That’s nice. Here’s a fun stat: the Lions were 14-20 on 4th and 2 situations during Campbell’s tenure. Their kicker was 11-17 from that range. Going for it was actually the higher percentage choice. But sure, momentum, magic beans, vampires and pixies.

This means what? This is a man that chose to go for 2 from the 7 yard line against the Cowboys instead of tying up the game. What were the chances there? Whatever they were, the coach didn't care. You're throwing all of these percentages up as if the coach were considering them. The coach makes decisions with no regard to past history. Yet you're bringing it up as if it means something.

The coach told the players they're going for the win if they score. He went with that no matter what. No beans, pixies, or 4th down situations mattered to him.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by cephasjames

There is zero chance of knowing the bold.

The 49ers scoring on five straight drives is not the result of one failed fourth down attempt. The Lions only scoring one touchdown in the second half (which basically happened in garbage time) is not the result of one failed fourth down attempt. A lot more things have to happen for those things to take place.

No, no way of knowing it. Just an opinion. I've seen it only 100 times in the past. It's called momentum. Once the other team grabs it you start to doubt yourself. It happens a lot, and you can usually point to the source.

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

This means what? This is a man that chose to go for 2 from the 7 yard line against the Cowboys instead of tying up the game. What were the chances there? Whatever they were, the coach didn't care. You're throwing all of these percentages up as if the coach were considering them. The coach makes decisions with no regard to past history. Yet you're bringing it up as if it means something.

The coach told the players they're going for the win if they score. He went with that no matter what. No beans, pixies, or 4th down situations mattered to him.

It just baffles me that people can defend going for it from the seven, when a FG ties the game.

[cephasjames]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

No, no way of knowing it. Just an opinion. I've seen it only 100 times in the past. It's called momentum. Once the other team grabs it you start to doubt yourself. It happens a lot, and you can usually point to the source.

I get momentum. But momentum doesn't cause a team to score 27 unanswered points (Yes, Detroit scored 7 in basically garbage time, but the damage had already been done). 27 unanswered points happen when a team falls apart. Detroit fell apart. They didn't just have two bad plays that caused SF to score 27. Momentum played a part in it, but there was way more than just momentum going on there.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Ragnar

This means what?

That you were wrong about the odds.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by cephasjames

I get momentum. But momentum doesn't cause a team to score 27 unanswered points (Yes, Detroit scored 7 in basically garbage time, but the damage had already been done). 27 unanswered points happen when a team falls apart. Detroit fell apart. They didn't just have two bad plays that caused SF to score 27. Momentum played a part in it, but there was way more than just momentum going on there.

Yes it does. It can mean exactly that. I've seen it a million times. If the Lions kick that FG and make it, the Lions win that game. That's just my opinion as an X heavy gambler.

[cephasjames]

I disagree. And I don't see us doing anything but disagreeing with each other. So I'm moving on.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by cephasjames

I disagree. And I don't see us doing anything but disagreeing with each other. So I'm moving on.

It's just opinion. You don't have to agree, and I expect you wouldn't even if I showed you 100 examples. Because I can show you many. Where one play changes the entire game. But you can just assume it would have happened anyway. That's your opinion.

[Cobra Mgr]

Three ex-Bears named to the HOF. Though I'm sure Julius Peppers w/go in as a Panther. Steve McMichael & Devin Hester are the other 2 who played for the Windy City. Also, Andre Johnson, Patrick Willis & Randy Grandishar will be enshrined.

[Syd Thrift]

I'm seeing one former SEAHAWK

[Amazin69]

I can live with McMichael going in, just as long as they don't induct Pepe, too.



As mediocre of a pro wrestler as McMichael turned out to be, as wretched of a broadcaster as he was, it was even more excruciating having McMichael post his pet Chihuahua at the announcing table, as if owning a dog made him any less an annoyance. Here we see Mongo dressing Pepe up in "Mexican bandit" garb, because he's funny like that.

(His WCW career also cost him his marriage, for what that's worth.)

[dsvitak]

Got my Chiefs sweatshirt on, heading over to Miniature Market here in a bit. Then, and early lunch, and finally, to a Super Bowl watch party around three.

Gonna be about 30 people there, and my contribution is a case of Sam Adams Cherry Wheat beer. My favorite!