Time Ticking For Giambi? - Page 4

Jason Moyer · 05-11-2005, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyhorsejohnny

Leadoff? Are you crazy? Are you related to BB?

Ok, I'll ask a second time. What's wrong with hitting Giambi leadoff? How many leadoff hitters in the AL get on base more than Giambi has this year?

Long_Long_Name · 05-11-2005, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

Ok, I'll ask a second time. What's wrong with hitting Giambi leadoff? How many leadoff hitters in the AL get on base more than Giambi has this year?

I don't think that's the problem with crazyhorse. He probably doesn't believe that OBP is a leadoff hitter's most important statistic/quality.

Jason Moyer · 05-11-2005, 10:56 PM

Edit: Sign language for the blind. Thx/ok.

crazyhorsejohnny · 05-11-2005, 11:13 PM

It will never happen. Why? Because he won't even make it to the all star game. He's done. Just like Bonds.

The only time he'll bat leadoff is in a OOTP game.

mlyons · 05-11-2005, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Slick

...and I'm gonna have to call sample size again. He's looking bad? Fine. Don't make a statistical argument to say he's looking bad.

Why not? This is the point of the season where you have to stop worrying that the sample size is too small and start actually using the statistics you've got. Through 100 plate appearances, Giambi has four extra base hits. How many plate appearances do you need before you start to worry? 300? 400? By that point, there isn't much time left in the season. This isn't going back to 20 years ago and trying to determine where a guy's career went sour; this is trying to figure out whether or not a player has lost a skill right now. This also isn't a flukish thing; he showed signs of a power drop off last year, with his ISO dropping to .170, 100 points below the previous season. Other than waiting until the season is over, what would you suggest in terms of analyzing whether or not Giambi's power stroke is gone?

crazyhorsejohnny · 05-11-2005, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

Why not? This is the point of the season where you have to stop worrying that the sample size is too small and start actually using the statistics you've got. Through 100 plate appearances, Giambi has four extra base hits. How many plate appearances do you need before you start to worry? 300? 400? By that point, there isn't much time left in the season. This isn't going back to 20 years ago and trying to determine where a guy's career went sour; this is trying to figure out whether or not a player has lost a skill right now. This also isn't a flukish thing; he showed signs of a power drop off last year, with his ISO dropping to .170, 100 points below the previous season. Other than waiting until the season is over, what would you suggest in terms of analyzing whether or not Giambi's power stroke is gone?

Good points.

mlyons · 05-11-2005, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyhorsejohnny

Good points.

You're not helping.

crazyhorsejohnny · 05-11-2005, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

You're not helping.

Things could always be worse.

Melo · 05-12-2005, 12:00 AM

I think he's 3 for his last 30, all singles and 10 walks. His bat looks slow, his ass is flying out and pitches he should be driving are foul balls. He looks like a shell of his former self. If I was pitching against him I'd be busting fastballs inside all day long and making him prove he can get the bat around. Right now he can't. All you have to do is see it to believe it.

lincarnate · 05-12-2005, 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

Giambi is 3rd on the team in OBP, despite hitting .195. How would hitting him leadoff be a bad idea?

It probably didn't come out the right way, but I was agreeing with you. Personally, I think batting him second in the order would be better, assuming his power returns. If that happened, the Yankees would have a lineup along the lines of:

Jeter
Giambi
A-Rod
Matsui
Sheff
Martinez
Posada
Womack
Cano

Jason Moyer · 05-12-2005, 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lincarnate

It probably didn't come out the right way, but I was agreeing with you. Personally, I think batting him second in the order would be better, assuming his power returns. If that happened, the Yankees would have a lineup along the lines of:

Is putting a player in the 2-hole a common slump-buster? I remember Jim Fregosi used to do that sort of thing when Daulton would start a season hitting a buck fifty.

MattStewNYY · 05-12-2005, 12:39 AM

Is there any metric that measures how many runs a year Giambi costs with his lack of speed? Perhaps this is a rational explanation as to why lead-off for someone like him isn't remotely realistic. Or perhaps it is just another thing he refuses to do.

lincarnate · 05-12-2005, 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

Is putting a player in the 2-hole a common slump-buster? I remember Jim Fregosi used to do that sort of thing when Daulton would start a season hitting a buck fifty.

IIRC, Torre put A-Rod in the two hole when he was in a slump last year. I also think that putting him second would put him in the best place to use both his discipline and power. Since I think Jeter will put up a similar OBP with more speed and less power (SLG and ISO both), I'd put him leadoff over Giambi.

Long_Long_Name · 05-12-2005, 12:48 AM

I'd like to see a study showing the importance of speed for a leadoff hitter. This study finds that it's... really not that important.

Johnny Slick · 05-12-2005, 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lincarnate

IIRC, Torre put A-Rod in the two hole when he was in a slump last year. I also think that putting him second would put him in the best place to use both his discipline and power. Since I think Jeter will put up a similar OBP with more speed and less power (SLG and ISO both), I'd put him leadoff over Giambi.

FWIW, the Reds had Ken Griffey Jr. batting 2nd for most of April this year in an effort to break him out of... age, I guess.

Falcon52 · 05-12-2005, 02:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Long_Long_Name

I'd like to see a study showing the importance of speed for a leadoff hitter. This study finds that it's... really not that important.

Statistical or not, I would never agree with a lineup that consisted of Rance Mulliniks batting leadoff ahead of the likes of Devon White or Robbie Alomar.

Karros270 · 05-12-2005, 02:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Falcon52

Statistical or not, I would never agree with a lineup that consisted of Rance Mulliniks batting leadoff ahead of the likes of Devon White or Robbie Alomar.

So Jose Reyes over Giambi batting leadoff then?

Jason Moyer · 05-12-2005, 02:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattStewNYY

Is there any metric that measures how many runs a year Giambi costs with his lack of speed?

As long as you keep in mind that there are external factors, you could probably compare his runs per plate appearance to his on base percentage. Or his runs to his times on base. With a large enough sample size it might be meaningful.

Random examples (I'll try to use extremes...a few dirt slow guys, a few fast guys, varying OBP skill):

Ja Giambi - (851 R - 281 HR)/(1413 H - 281 HR + 871 BB) = .284 R/TOB .147 R/PA
V Coleman - .438 .142
R Henderson - .404 .172
T Cobb - .400 .172
T Raines - .372 .152
B Ruth - .346 .205
B Bonds - .316 .179
T Williams - .307 .184
F Thomas - .278 .154
M Vaughn - .264 .134
E Lombardi - .202 .095

Vaguely correlates to a player's speed, altho I'd have to question Babe Ruth ranking Higher than Barry Bonds. It could also just correlate to one's typical position in the batting order...I can't think of anyone offhand who led off most of his career with no speed or hit low in the order with wheels.

If either of these stats meaningfully correlate to a skill, I'd expect them to be fairly consistent over a player's career regardless of team/lineup spot, with a decline for age.

Karros270 · 05-12-2005, 02:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

As long as you keep in mind that there are external factors, you could probably compare his runs per plate appearance to his on base percentage. Or his runs to his times on base. With a large enough sample size it might be meaningful.

How do you correct for the difference between the offenses of the two teams and the effect that has on runs scored?

Jason Moyer · 05-12-2005, 03:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karros270

How do you correct for the difference between the offenses of the two teams and the effect that has on runs scored?

I would think with a large enough sample a lot of those variations would balance out.

05-11-2005, 10:56 PM	#63
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,087	Edit: Sign language for the blind. Thx/ok. __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech Last edited by Jason Moyer; 05-11-2005 at 10:58 PM.

05-12-2005, 12:39 AM	#72
MattStewNYY Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 143	Is there any metric that measures how many runs a year Giambi costs with his lack of speed? Perhaps this is a rational explanation as to why lead-off for someone like him isn't remotely realistic. Or perhaps it is just another thing he refuses to do. __________________

05-12-2005, 12:48 AM	#74
Long_Long_Name Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Montréal Posts: 7,065	I'd like to see a study showing the importance of speed for a leadoff hitter. This study finds that it's... really not that important. __________________ Beta Baseball. Join it!

05-11-2005, 11:13 PM	#64
crazyhorsejohnny All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Ottawa Posts: 818	It will never happen. Why? Because he won't even make it to the all star game. He's done. Just like Bonds. The only time he'll bat leadoff is in a OOTP game.

05-12-2005, 12:00 AM	#69
Melo All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Where the baned reside Posts: 1,428	I think he's 3 for his last 30, all singles and 10 walks. His bat looks slow, his ass is flying out and pitches he should be driving are foul balls. He looks like a shell of his former self. If I was pitching against him I'd be busting fastballs inside all day long and making him prove he can get the bat around. Right now he can't. All you have to do is see it to believe it.