New York and Arizona could strike deal without a 3rd team.

[Bigmoe]

Trade the Unit to the Yankees.... He due for arm trouble!!!

[PotatoPeeler]

It's reportedly done.

Johnson for Vazquez, Dioneer Navarro, Brad Halsey, and $8 million dollars (and maybe Eric Duncan).

BTW, tell me if this paragraph from ESPN isn't the most poorly written news story you've seen in a while.

[abailey3313]

According to Gammons' sources, Arizona will not immediately deal Vazquez to another team, but will continue to talk to interested teams, including Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit and Texas.

Sigh. One can only hope.

[Arlie Rahn]

Originally Posted by abailey3313

According to Gammons' sources, Arizona will not immediately deal Vazquez to another team, but will continue to talk to interested teams, including Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit and Texas.

Sigh. One can only hope.

I can't see Arizona trading Vazquez before the deadline unless they get a great deal.

[CommishJoe]

I think ARZ holds on to him for the beginning of the season and let him get his feet back under him. If he throws as well as he did first 1/2 of last year, his value goes up.

I'm Ok with Navarro going in this deal, but if Duncan goes too, I'll be PO'd. They are the only kids the Yanks have worth dealing (and I heard Navarro backtracked to AA last year).

[draven085]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

I can't see Arizona trading Vazquez before the deadline unless they get a great deal.

Why not? They just traded a pitcher who is a hell of a lot better than Vazquez for a not-very-great deal.

My question is this: Why the hell did the 'Zona front office overspend millions on Glaus and Ortiz if their plan all along was to trade the Unit? Are they playing to win or are they simply playing to be mediocre? Their entire offseason smacks of lacking a plan.

[Green & Gold Heart]

Originally Posted by CommishJoe

I'm Ok with Navarro going in this deal, but if Duncan goes too, I'll be PO'd. They are the only kids the Yanks have worth dealing (and I heard Navarro backtracked to AA last year).

Isn't that what they always do though? I was suprised they even had tradeable prospects. I don't think you'll be seeing much home grown talent in pinstripes anymore as long as George is in the driver's seat.

EDIT: Spelling.

[CommishJoe]

Yeah, I know. I had given up through the 80s, and actually stopped watching baseball for a stretch in the late 80s, early 90s. Then, the late 90s teams spoiled me(the 96 series is something I'll never forget). Now, it's hard to let go of the hope, ya know?

[randomlefty10]

Right now, I don't see any team in the MLB that looks like a 100 win team.
Boston, New York, St. Louis, Atlanta are potential 95 win teams, but that's as high as I'm willing to go on projections.

[JerseyPride]

This is a bit off-topic, but good news for us Yankee fans... Tino is returning to the Bronx.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/ne..._mlb&fext=.jsp

NEW YORK -- As the Yankees waited to complete a trade for Randy Johnson, the club made another move on Thursday, bringing former Yankee Tino Martinez back to the Bronx.
According to a source with knowledge of the situation, Martinez passed his physical at the Yankees' complex in Tampa, Fla., and the deal could be announced within a day or two.

Martinez signed a one-year deal, though exact terms were not available. He will likely share time at first base and DH with Jason Giambi. He also gives New York a viable option at first base should Giambi experience any health problems.

When reached by phone, general manager Brian Cashman declined comment on the matter.

Martinez played for the Yankees from 1996-2001, and helped the team win four World Series titles in that time. He drove in 100 or more runs in five of his six seasons in pinstripes, including 1997, when he finished second in the American League's MVP voting.

In 15 seasons, Martinez has a .272 average, 322 home runs and 1,222 RBIs, and has played in two All-Star Games. Last season, Martinez hit .262 with 23 home runs and 76 RBIs for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

New York has spent its offseason focused on pitching, signing Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright to bolster its rotation. The team also traded for relievers Mike Stanton and Felix Rodriguez, filling out the bullpen for 2005.

Martinez is just the second position player added by the Yankees this winter, joining second baseman Tony Womack.

Mark Feinsand is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

[Dargone]

So I can call him Darth Unit now?

[CMH]

Originally Posted by draven085

Why not? They just traded a pitcher who is a hell of a lot better than Vazquez for a not-very-great deal.

My question is this: Why the hell did the 'Zona front office overspend millions on Glaus and Ortiz if their plan all along was to trade the Unit? Are they playing to win or are they simply playing to be mediocre? Their entire offseason smacks of lacking a plan.

It's the Arizona Diamondbacks. When has any season for them looked like it had a strong plan in place?

[Joshv02]

Originally Posted by randomlefty10

Right now, I don't see any team in the MLB that looks like a 100 win team.
Boston, New York, St. Louis, Atlanta are potential 95 win teams, but that's as high as I'm willing to go on projections.

You can never (rarely ever) perdict a team to win >100 with any real comfort. But, a way to do it is to compare last year's pythag (or last years RC vs. comp RA, or some such) to the net from what they lost vs. what they gained.

According to Pythag, the Braves won 95, the Yankees won 89, the Cards won 100, and the Sox (good ones) won 97. BPro's Eqiv R vs. Eqiv RA raises the Sox (to 103) and Yankees (to 91), lowers the Braves (90), and keeps the Cards the same.

To predict next year's w/l, what Tom Tippett did a few years ago (iirc) was to adjust last years pythag to have neautral "clutch" hitting; using a RC/comp RA is about the same.

Then, project some decline/raise based on age/performance.

Then, just figure out the sum of what was lost and compare it to the sum of what was gained (expected).

So, the Sox picked up abuot 3-4 wins just from Renteria vs what they had at SS last year (a .300/.400 or so line) and about 2 wins from Pedro+Lowe to Clement plus Wells (and possibly more if Miller gives anything). Everything else is about a wash, I'd say (some decline at CF/2B/C some raise at 3B and RF). That is about a 105 win team

The Cards lost at least 2 wins from Edgar to Eck, but picked that up in the rotation. Aging will take its toll on CF and the Corner OF positions, but a full year of Walker will make up for some of that. First base looks to be solid

The Yanks will lose about 3-4 games from aging/career years (after netting for an ARod slight uptick, though he was about right considering the ball park). But, they will also lost at least 5-6 games from the Pythag g-ds. Perhaps as many as 10-12. Johnson makes up 4 at most. So, thats about a 5-10 game drop without Beltran. With Beltran they may be a 100 win team; about 92-95 without.

The Braves picked up a little in the rotation but lost a bit in the field. I can't imagine them being much better, though not much worse, either.

[Arlie Rahn]

Originally Posted by draven085

Why not? They just traded a pitcher who is a hell of a lot better than Vazquez for a not-very-great deal.

I don't know. I would say get a top of the rotation 28-year old starter, top lefty starter prospect, one of the Yankees top prospects (Navarro - whom they will probably spin into Green) and $8 million is not bad value for a 41 year old starter with bad knees one season removed from a 6-8 record and 4+ ERA.

Johnson would have been nice to keep in AZ, but getting 2-3 major leaguers that can help this season (Green, Vazquez) plus prospects and $8 mil in cash is much more valuable when you look down the road. Arizona is going to enter 2005 with a payroll almost $25 million below what they had in 2004 and will probably win another 25 games. Not too shabby an offseason.

My question is this: Why the hell did the 'Zona front office overspend millions on Glaus and Ortiz if their plan all along was to trade the Unit? Are they playing to win or are they simply playing to be mediocre? Their entire offseason smacks of lacking a plan.

Probably because they are building a team that will last past 2005. Signing and trading for good players in their 20s and early 30s makes a lot more sense than trying to hold on to 41-year olds when you are a year or two from making serious noise.

[Arlie Rahn]

Originally Posted by Joshv02

You can never (rarely ever) perdict a team to win >100 with any real comfort. But, a way to do it is to compare last year's pythag (or last years RC vs. comp RA, or some such) to the net from what they lost vs. what they gained.

According to Pythag, the Braves won 95, the Yankees won 89, the Cards won 100, and the Sox (good ones) won 97. BPro's Eqiv R vs. Eqiv RA raises the Sox (to 103) and Yankees (to 91), lowers the Braves (90), and keeps the Cards the same.

To predict next year's w/l, what Tom Tippett did a few years ago (iirc) was to adjust last years pythag to have neautral "clutch" hitting; using a RC/comp RA is about the same.

Then, project some decline/raise based on age/performance.

Then, just figure out the sum of what was lost and compare it to the sum of what was gained (expected).

So, the Sox picked up abuot 3-4 wins just from Renteria vs what they had at SS last year (a .300/.400 or so line) and about 2 wins from Pedro+Lowe to Clement plus Wells (and possibly more if Miller gives anything). Everything else is about a wash, I'd say (some decline at CF/2B/C some raise at 3B and RF). That is about a 105 win team

The Cards lost at least 2 wins from Edgar to Eck, but picked that up in the rotation. Aging will take its toll on CF and the Corner OF positions, but a full year of Walker will make up for some of that. First base looks to be solid

The Yanks will lose about 3-4 games from aging/career years (after netting for an ARod slight uptick, though he was about right considering the ball park). But, they will also lost at least 5-6 games from the Pythag g-ds. Perhaps as many as 10-12. Johnson makes up 4 at most. So, thats about a 5-10 game drop without Beltran. With Beltran they may be a 100 win team; about 92-95 without.

The Braves picked up a little in the rotation but lost a bit in the field. I can't imagine them being much better, though not much worse, either.

Very interesting analysis and it makes a great deal of sense. At this point, I would have to say a rematch of the 04 series seems to be in order depending on who gets Beltran.

[draven085]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

I don't know. I would say get a top of the rotation 28-year old starter, top lefty starter prospect, one of the Yankees top prospects (Navarro - whom they will probably spin into Green) and $8 million is not bad value for a 41 year old starter with bad knees one season removed from a 6-8 record and 4+ ERA.

Johnson would have been nice to keep in AZ, but getting 2-3 major leaguers that can help this season (Green, Vazquez) plus prospects and $8 mil in cash is much more valuable when you look down the road. Arizona is going to enter 2005 with a payroll almost $25 million below what they had in 2004 and will probably win another 25 games. Not too shabby an offseason.


Probably because they are building a team that will last past 2005. Signing and trading for good players in their 20s and early 30s makes a lot more sense than trying to hold on to 41-year olds when you are a year or two from making serious noise.

Your argument assumes that Vazquez is indeed a top of the rotation starter. I'm not sure that's the case. Maybe he was hurt last year but an ERA+ of 92 isn't exactly confidence inspiring. He had two really good years and two more decent years. Don't get me wrong, I like Vazquez and think he'll rebound somewhat but I'd say he's a longshot to repeat his 2003 success. That looks like a career year to me.

You also apparently think a lot more of the prospects in this deal than I do, and probably Shawn Green too. Green's pretty clearly in his decline phase and isn't worth the kind of cash he'll pull down next year. If the DBacks keep RJ and let him walk as a FA next winter they'll get picks that could have better value than the youngsters they're getting from NY.

It just seems to me that trading arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a clear downgrade after you've just signed two expensive free agents seems to be a clear case of "two steps forward, one step back." Then again I've never been real impressed with the Arizone front office so I'm not surprised.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by draven085

Your argument assumes that Vazquez is indeed a top of the rotation starter. I'm not sure that's the case. Maybe he was hurt last year but an ERA+ of 92 isn't exactly confidence inspiring. He had two really good years and two more decent years. Don't get me wrong, I like Vazquez and think he'll rebound somewhat but I'd say he's a longshot to repeat his 2003 success. That looks like a career year to me.

Some people wondered if it's all the abuse in his Montreal days finally got to him. If that's true, his problem might be bigger than Randy Johnson's knees.

Randy Johnson changed his mechanics before 2004, after coming back from surgery. It was meant to take pressure off his knees, and probably it worked good enough for him to enjoy a Cy Young-caliber season. Maybe that's also the reason for his lowering BB rate too? Of course, nobody knows how the synvisc injections worked, since not everyone respond to them in the same way. It'd probably be closely examined in the physical.

Scott Rolen was suggested by Cardinal medical stuff to take some synvisc injections too, but I think he didn't take them(?).

Jim Mecir, Mike Hampton, and some others also had tried syncisc injections.

[Arlie Rahn]

Originally Posted by draven085

Your argument assumes that Vazquez is indeed a top of the rotation starter. I'm not sure that's the case. Maybe he was hurt last year but an ERA+ of 92 isn't exactly confidence inspiring. He had two really good years and two more decent years. Don't get me wrong, I like Vazquez and think he'll rebound somewhat but I'd say he's a longshot to repeat his 2003 success. That looks like a career year to me.

You also apparently think a lot more of the prospects in this deal than I do, and probably Shawn Green too. Green's pretty clearly in his decline phase and isn't worth the kind of cash he'll pull down next year. If the DBacks keep RJ and let him walk as a FA next winter they'll get picks that could have better value than the youngsters they're getting from NY.

It just seems to me that trading arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a clear downgrade after you've just signed two expensive free agents seems to be a clear case of "two steps forward, one step back." Then again I've never been real impressed with the Arizone front office so I'm not surprised.

Well, keeping Johnson makes very little sense for Arizona in 2005 since they are not a title contender yet. Johnson got daily knee injections in the final month of 04 and he is about at that stage in his career where the knee and back problems may catch up with him. Also remember that he had an ERA over 4 in only 100 innings in 2003, so keeping him at $16 mil and then letting him walk is a pretty massive gamble for Arizona.

Vazquez was 10-5 with a 3.5 ERA in mid June, coming off a 3.21 ERA performance in 2003. Most experts felt the fact that Vazquez pitched 683 innings (!) between 01 and 03 (228 per season) gave him a bit of a tired arm down the stretch. The fact that he only had 9 starts from August on gave him some time to rest that arm and I expect he will be a good player in 05. Green also hit .280 with 18 HRs and 47 RBI from July 15 on in a pretty tough hitters park. Once his shoulder cleared up he looked the part of the .285 40+ HR hitter he was in 02 and will probably be in BOB.

Again, I would be real interested in hearing what you think would be better value for Johnson than Vazquez, Green, Halsey and $8 million. Heck, I wouldn't have had that big of a problem with Vazquez and cash by itself given Vazquez's recent history and the fact he's only 28.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

That makes sense. I also heard about a deal sending Vazquez to Florida for A.J. Burnett and others. I can tell you that Arizona will have little interest in moving Vazquez for anything less than a top of the rotation starter. I can't see them being too interested in Bedard at this point considering he's had both Tommy John earlier and elbow surgery in August. If he comes back healthy, maybe he would interest them. There's also a rumor involving Philly and Randy Wolf. But I doubt Arizona would trade Vazquez until the trade deadline unless they got a great deal.

Whatever happens, it should be interesting.

I think the real mystery right now is the team budget.

Most people expected the Diamondbacks to cut payroll in order to reduce the cummulated deficit, but now it seems that they are using the newly raised money to keep spending instead of payind debts. I think trading Vazquez for some cheaper but still good pitcher would make sense, and they should try to get as much cash as possible from the Dodgers if they are seriously considering Green.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by Arlie Rahn

Well, keeping Johnson makes very little sense for Arizona in 2005 since they are not a title contender yet.

I think that's the part most people don't get. If not trying to contend, why bother paying so much for a mediocre Ortiz? Why taking risks on Glaus? Why bother trading for Green? Other than Glaus, there are very little chance for the other two to be on the next good Diamondback team?

Even all these players get their career year next year, the team will not be much higher than .500.