HOF : Tim Raines - Page 4

darkhorse · 06-16-2007, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

Apparently I'm not the only person who immediately thought of Lou Brock when this came up:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...earlman/070613

From the article.....

"Not a Bruce Sutter Hall of Famer. (Translation: A player who inexplicably gets in based on five stellar seasons.)"

Actually, Sutter had a grand total of three great seasons. '77, '79 and '84. None of them were MVP quality, but they were sensational seasons for a reliever. Still, three great years is all it took to earn a Hall of Fame induction? That is ****ing pathetic. The BBWAA did Frankie Frisch proud with that boneheaded selection. It is without compare the worst selection ever by the writers.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/suttebr01.php

darkhorse · 06-16-2007, 02:57 PM

dola,

Lou Brock's selection points out the ignorance of looking at a mark like 500 saves or 3,000 hits and thinking that automatically makes that player Hall worthy. Both Brock and Hoffman are marginal candidates.

Prodigal Son · 06-16-2007, 03:14 PM

I think Hoffman will get in, and it will be deserving. He has over 900 high-leverage innings pitched at an ERA+ of 150. That's an amazing ERA+. If he manages to pitch 90 more innings at this level of performance (and so far, so good in '06 and '07), he will be second on the all-time ERA+ leaderboard on BBReference, which requires 1000 career IP. Pedro is at 160. Walter Johnson is at 146; Clemens tags along at 144.

The trouble is translating 1000 innings in relief to starter innings in terms of value. Even standing alone, though, that would be five seasons as the second most effective starting pitcher of all-time. What percentage of innings tossed by HoF-caliber pitchers are very low-leverage and what percentage are as high leverage as save situations? I don't know the answer. But if the answers are where I guess they may be, Hoffman is an extremely deserving HoF'er.

darkhorse · 06-16-2007, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prodigal Son

The trouble is translating 1000 innings in relief to starter innings in terms of value.

BB Prospectus does leverage innings based on the situation. Hoffman's XIP, or adjusted inning pitched, total is 1,617 innings. Even leveraged, Trevor's value is marginal for a HOF candidate. His highest WARP scores, which estimate how many wins above replacement level he performed, are a pair of 8.8's ('96 and '98). His career total is 82.7.

A good Hall of Fame candidate should have totaled 100+ wins, above replacement level, in his career and should have a high peak score, around 50 wins, above replacement, for his best five seasons.

The only way Hoffman makes it is if you only compare him to other relievers and remove starting pitchers and everyday players from the equation. There's certainly an argument to be made for using that kind of thinking in your selection process.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hoffmtr01.php

Long_Long_Name · 01-08-2008, 02:22 PM

24.3% for Rock just does not make sense. We're a smarter bunch.

CMH · 01-08-2008, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Long_Long_Name

24.3% for Rock just does not make sense. We're a smarter bunch.

It's probably another one of those, "He shouldn't get in on the first ballot" pieces of crap votes.

bababui · 01-08-2008, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YankeePride

I think people can make a strong argument for him, but I don't know if he'd get voted in.

I'd give him a vote, though because I admire his consistency and he did what he was supposed to do well.

The HoF should be (and should have been) for the creme d le creme of players. Raines was an excellent player but he wasnt a top shelf player. He isnt deserving.

Zoso1515 · 01-08-2008, 08:56 PM

Helluva lot more deserving than Rice or Dawson

Long_Long_Name · 01-08-2008, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bababui

The HoF should be (and should have been) for the creme d le creme of players. Raines was an excellent player but he wasnt a top shelf player. He isnt deserving.

Tim Raines is one of the best leadoff hitters ever, with a 294/385/425 line. He is what, 5th in HR and has the best success rate of the top 250 base stealers ever. By the Hall's current membership, Tim Raines should most definitely be in. Lou Brock, a poor man's Raines, is in the Hall already. Bill James ranked Raines something like 8th best LF ever (and that he was possibly the best player during the mid 80's), and if the 8th best at your position isn't enough to get you in, I don't know what is. He's possibly the best eligible player not in the Hall, and there are a huge number of less worthy candidates, starting with Goose Gossage.

If the Hall votes for Bruce Sutter, Lou Brock and Goose Gossage in, it must vote for Tim Raines. The guy had a 303/413/449 line at 37, dammit!

bababui · 01-08-2008, 09:13 PM

Raines wasnt even the best outfielder in the Expos outfield. Dawson was. Andre was a classic 5 tool player and was a feared presence in a lineup. Dawson was also better in the field.

The HoF obviously should take numbers into account, but there is more to the picture. Dawson was an impact player to a much higher degree then was Tim Raines. Sure, Raines had a long career and was consistent, but he just isnt Hall material. On a related note, if Lou Brock hadnt broken the SB record, he likely wouldnt have been HoF material either.

Thats just my

Long_Long_Name · 01-08-2008, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bababui

Raines wasnt even the best outfielder in the Expos outfield. Dawson was.

My jaw is dropping.

bababui · 01-08-2008, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Long_Long_Name

My jaw is dropping.

LoL

Dawson had the massive skills and big seasons that HoFers are made of. Raines was am excellent workman-like player.

As good as Raines was, he wasnt as good or as well rounded as Dawson. To make a modern analogy, Raines in Jeter to Dawsons ARod.

Quote:

Dawson...is one of six players with at least 300 home runs and 300 stolen bases. He hit 438 homers, stole 314 bases, was an eight-time all-star and won eight Gold Gloves in right field.

He ranks 24th in RBIs and 32nd in home runs. He was the 1987 NL most valuable player with the Chicago Cubs, when he had 49 homers and 137 RBIs.

Long_Long_Name · 01-08-2008, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bababui

LoL

Dawson had the massive skills and big seasons that HoFers are made of. Raines was am excellent workman-like player.

As good as Raines was, he wasnt as good or as well rounded as Dawson. To make a modern analogy, Raines in Jeter to Dawsons ARod.

Ha, not really. Raines is Chipper Jones and Dawson is Justin Morneau, if you insist on finding a comparison. But, I don't think there is as pure a leadoff hitter as Raines in current MLB. He is the ideal, prototypical leadoff hitter.

Jason Moyer · 01-09-2008, 03:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bababui

Dawson had the massive skills and big seasons that HoFers are made of. Raines was am excellent workman-like player.

Tim Raines best season (1985) was better than Dawson's best season (1981). Raines second best season (1987) was better than Dawson's second best season (1982). Raines third, fourth, and fifth best seasons (92/86/83)were better than Dawson's third best season (1980). Raines sixth best season (1984) was better than Dawson's fourth best (1980), and Raines seventh (1989) was equal to it.

In terms of peak performance or career performance Tim has him beat handily. How that's not incredibly obvious I'm not sure, but whatever. Andre hit for more power - Tim hit for a higher average, got on base more, stole over twice as many bases at a record clip, and was a better defensive player. Hell, before factoring in Tim's speed/defense advantages, he has a better OPS and OPS+.

I don't think Andre would dishonor the hall, but his credentials are no better than a ton of other guys. If Andre Dawson is a hall of famer, you sure as hell better be putting Dwight Evans in, since he did the same things, better, for a longer period of time.

(Somewhat OT, but for similar reasons, if you're putting Jim Rice in you better put Dave Parker, Harold Baines, Dale Murphy, Andres Galaragga, Ellis Burks, Joe Carter, Moises Alou, and Luis Gonzalez in too. Hell, put Reggie Smith and Fred Lynn in too, since they were contemporaries, played for the Red Sox, and were better players than Jim Rice. Then again, so were Andre Dawson and Dwight Evans.)

KurtBevacqua · 01-09-2008, 07:54 AM

Classic case of a Hall of Very Good player. A career OPS of .810 for a leadoff hitter? That puts him below guys like Mike Lowell, Jim Ray Hart, Aubrey Huff, and Raul Mondesi. As for the Lou Brock argument, Brock got in because he had 3,000 hits and was the all-time steal leader. At the time those kinds of things automatically got you in. Nowadays getting lots of hits and stealing lots of bases probably isn't enough.

The Wolf · 01-09-2008, 08:28 AM

Not a high enough career average nor a high enough OPS nor enough power (an average of 7 HR a year for an outfielder?).

You need more.

Some people - including some I respect - think he was something, but I sure don't. I'd never vote for him.

ctorg · 01-09-2008, 08:32 AM

I have been pretty well convinced by arguments made that Tim Raines is one of the most underrated players of his generation. Hopefully he will get in someday.

The Professor · 01-09-2008, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bababui

LoL

Dawson had the massive skills and big seasons that HoFers are made of. Raines was am excellent workman-like player.

As good as Raines was, he wasnt as good or as well rounded as Dawson. To make a modern analogy, Raines in Jeter to Dawsons ARod.

You are being a provocateur.

CMH · 01-09-2008, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bababui

The HoF should be (and should have been) for the creme d le creme of players. Raines was an excellent player but he wasnt a top shelf player. He isnt deserving.

This is where I disagree with you and many purists.

I don't know when it was assumed that the Hall of Fame is the Hall of the Greatest Players Ever.

All I see is Fame. The Hall has memorabillia from games no one could really care about when you think about it. I believe Schilling's bloody sock is in there. Really? Is that more worthy than Tim Raines career? Lets be serious.

It's the Hall of Fame. If you are someone most people can sit back and say, "That player was great for baseball" then you deserve to be in the Hall in my book.

Right now 70% of the people that have voted agree. That's overwhelming to me and justifies his position.

I see that Jamie compared Rice to Luis Gonzalez. Again, the difference is Rice was a great player of his time while Gonzalez is considered a player that had a few jumpout years but was never considered at the top of his position during his playing years.

In my opinion, that puts Rice in the Hall because everyone knows he was a great player in his time. Gonzalez was never considered a great player.

sporr · 01-09-2008, 10:27 AM

Something I learned from Jayson Stark about Raines:

"...did you know Tim Raines reached base more times in his career than Tony Gwynn did -- and that they had nearly identical career on-base percentages? And did you know that every eligible player who reached base as many times as Raines did, and had as high an on-base percentage as he had, is in the Hall of Fame?"

Also, if it weren't for owner collusion against him and a strike-shortened season, Raines would likely have had his 3000 hits.

View Poll Results: Would you vote for Tim Raines to go in the Hall of Fame?
Yes	59	70.24%
No	25	29.76%
Voters: 84. You may not vote on this poll

06-16-2007, 02:57 PM	#62
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	dola, Lou Brock's selection points out the ignorance of looking at a mark like 500 saves or 3,000 hits and thinking that automatically makes that player Hall worthy. Both Brock and Hoffman are marginal candidates. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

01-08-2008, 02:22 PM	#65
Long_Long_Name Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Montréal Posts: 7,065	24.3% for Rock just does not make sense. We're a smarter bunch. __________________ Beta Baseball. Join it!

01-09-2008, 07:54 AM	#75
KurtBevacqua Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 2,968	Classic case of a Hall of Very Good player. A career OPS of .810 for a leadoff hitter? That puts him below guys like Mike Lowell, Jim Ray Hart, Aubrey Huff, and Raul Mondesi. As for the Lou Brock argument, Brock got in because he had 3,000 hits and was the all-time steal leader. At the time those kinds of things automatically got you in. Nowadays getting lots of hits and stealing lots of bases probably isn't enough. __________________ "The type and formula of most schemes of philanthropy or humanitarianism is this: A and B put their heads together to decide what C shall be made to do for D. The radical vice of all these schemes, from a sociological point of view, is that C is not allowed a voice in the matter, and his position, character, and interests, as well as the ultimate effects on society through C's interests, are entirely overlooked. I call C the Forgotten Man" - William Graham Sumner

01-09-2008, 08:32 AM	#77
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	I have been pretty well convinced by arguments made that Tim Raines is one of the most underrated players of his generation. Hopefully he will get in someday. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

06-16-2007, 03:14 PM	#63
Prodigal Son All Star Starter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover Posts: 1,635	I think Hoffman will get in, and it will be deserving. He has over 900 high-leverage innings pitched at an ERA+ of 150. That's an amazing ERA+. If he manages to pitch 90 more innings at this level of performance (and so far, so good in '06 and '07), he will be second on the all-time ERA+ leaderboard on BBReference, which requires 1000 career IP. Pedro is at 160. Walter Johnson is at 146; Clemens tags along at 144. The trouble is translating 1000 innings in relief to starter innings in terms of value. Even standing alone, though, that would be five seasons as the second most effective starting pitcher of all-time. What percentage of innings tossed by HoF-caliber pitchers are very low-leverage and what percentage are as high leverage as save situations? I don't know the answer. But if the answers are where I guess they may be, Hoffman is an extremely deserving HoF'er.

01-08-2008, 08:56 PM	#68
Zoso1515 Banned Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 507 Infractions: 0/2 (2)	Helluva lot more deserving than Rice or Dawson

01-09-2008, 10:27 AM	#80
sporr Global Moderator Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Muscatine, IA Posts: 8,277	Something I learned from Jayson Stark about Raines: "...did you know Tim Raines reached base more times in his career than Tony Gwynn did -- and that they had nearly identical career on-base percentages? And did you know that every eligible player who reached base as many times as Raines did, and had as high an on-base percentage as he had, is in the Hall of Fame?" Also, if it weren't for owner collusion against him and a strike-shortened season, Raines would likely have had his 3000 hits.