Active Player HOF Debate: Catcher

[darkhorse]

WARP totals for the catchers in discussion and some of their contemporaries.

Ivan Rodriguez 90.5
Mike Piazza 85.5
Benito Santiago 64.0
Jason Kendall 49.9
Javy Lopez 47.0
Charles Johnson 44.0
Brad Ausmus 43.3
Jorge Posada 41.2
Mike Lieberthal 34.5
Dan Wilson 33.7
Todd Hundley 32.3
Sandy Alomar Jr. 31.0
Joe Girardi 29.2
Jason Varitek 20.6

Here are the career WARP totals for every catcher in the HOF. There are only 13 and the list should probably be shorter.

Gary Carter 123.5
Johnny Bench 120.8
Carlton Fisk 111.9
Yogi Berra 102.8
Buck Ewing 99.4
Gabby Hartnett 98.6
Bill Dickey 97.1
Mickey Cochrane 84.9
Roger Bresnahan 78.4
Ray Schalk 71.8
Ernie Lombardi 65.9
Rick Ferrell 63.6
Roy Campanella 58.9

Both Pudge and Piazza are mortal locks for the Hall of Fame. Benito has had a fine career but is not Hall worthy. No other catcher debated in this thread is even close at this point in their career.

[Skipaway]

Originally posted by darkhorse
WARP totals for the catchers in discussion and some of their contemporaries.

Ivan Rodriguez 90.5
Mike Piazza 85.5
Benito Santiago 64.0
Jason Kendall 49.9
Javy Lopez 47.0
Charles Johnson 44.0
Brad Ausmus 43.3
Jorge Posada 41.2
Mike Lieberthal 34.5
Dan Wilson 33.7
Todd Hundley 32.3
Sandy Alomar Jr. 31.0
Joe Girardi 29.2
Jason Varitek 20.6

Same information with age added:

Ivan Rodriguez 90.5 / 32
Mike Piazza 85.5 / 35
Benito Santiago 64.0 / 39
Jason Kendall 49.9 / 30
Javy Lopez 47.0 / 33
Charles Johnson 44.0 / 32
Brad Ausmus 43.3 / 35
Jorge Posada 41.2 / 32
Mike Lieberthal 34.5 / 32
Dan Wilson 33.7 / 35
Todd Hundley 32.3 / 35
Sandy Alomar Jr. 31.0 / 38
Joe Girardi 29.2 /39
Jason Varitek 20.6 / 32

Jason Kendall seems like the best candidate after Rodriguez and Piazza. He's the youngest of the group, and WARP only lower than Sandiago.

Lopez and Posada got minimum chance, and it's just impossible for Jason Varitek.

[darkhorse]

Originally posted by Skipaway
Jason Kendall seems like the best candidate after Rodriguez and Piazza. He's the youngest of the group, and WARP only lower than Sandiago.

Kendall's age and performance the last three years don't make his prospects seem promising.

Agreed that he is the best candidate beside the two living legends.

[sixto]

What, no love for Joe Mauer?

[KurtBevacqua]

Originally posted by Skipaway
Similarity test is not exactly a good way to see if someone is hall of fame worthy. You know there is only one hall of famer on Joe Morgan's similarity batter list?

All those hall of famers on Lopez's list were better than Lopez through age 32.

Also, what do you mean by another 3 seasons of what Lopez has done? 2001 kind of year? 2002? 2003? The only way for him to get into hall of fame would be 4 or 5 more years at the 2003 level, which is nearly impossible.

I partially agree with you. Similarity is just similarity, especially in this era. My real point was to show Lopez is much more hall worthy than Posada, not that Lopez is necessarily a lock for the hall.

By three good years, I'd say three years close to what Lopez had in 98 or even 2000 which would put him very close to 300 career HR and 1000 career RBIs, both excellent career numbers for a catcher, better than some in the hall. It's unrealistic to think or expect a catcher at his age would have anymore seasons like last year.

I don't think Javy will get in, but I do think he is much more worthy of consideration of Posada. I think the late Thurman Munson had more justification than Posada.

[darkhorse]

Originally posted by sixto
What, no love for Joe Mauer?

With the latest news about his injury, it appears the baseball gods have no love for him either.

[darkhorse]

Originally posted by KurtBevacqua
My real point was to show Lopez is much more hall worthy than Posada, not that Lopez is necessarily a lock for the hall.

Lopez has an edge in playing time. Posada is a far superior hitter. They seem to have similar value defensively. I'd much rather have Posada on my team.

[ctorg]

Piazza and I-Rod. They both deserve it.

[KurtBevacqua]

Originally posted by darkhorse
Lopez has an edge in playing time. Posada is a far superior hitter. They seem to have similar value defensively. I'd much rather have Posada on my team.

If you look at the career numbers for two guys only one year apart in age, Lopez is way above Posada. You are making a subjective judgement based upon your own opinion. Maybe Posada is a better "pure hitter" (although he has less power and lower BA for a career), but the overall numbers favor Lopez, and not by a little.

Posada career: 135 HR, 526 RBI, .849 OPS
Lopez career: 214 HR, 694 RBI, .839 OPS

By 162 game AVG career:
Posada: 25 HR, 98 RBI, .270 BA
Lopez: 30 HR, 97 RBI, .287 BA

Lopez is clearly the better slugger, Posada has a slight edge in OPS (thanks to significantly higher OBP, but much lower SLG) . In fact, the only aspect to offensive performance you can cleary give to Posada is OBP (.375 to .337). Lopez also has considerably more years at a fairly high level under his belt.

And if you want to throw post season performance into the mix, Lopez only increases his edge.
Lopez career postseason
G HR RBI BA SLG OBP OPS
15 10 28 .278 .493 .324 .817

Posada career postseason
G HR RBI BA SLG OBP OPS
18 7 25 .226 .379 .339 .718

So the Yankee post season stink has not washed off on Posada, while the Braves postseason woes haven't affected Lopez in the least.

While your subjective, personal opinion is that Posada is a better player, the career numbers, as they stand right this moment, clearly suggest Lopez has better qualifications for the Hall (not that he is necessarily Hall worthy, just more Hall worthy).

[Joshv02]

Originally posted by KurtBevacqua
If you look at the career numbers for two guys only one year apart in age, Lopez is way above Posada. (edit)…

Posada career: 135 HR, 526 RBI, .849 OPS
Lopez career: 214 HR, 694 RBI, .839 OPS

By 162 game AVG career:
Posada: 25 HR, 98 RBI, .270 BA
Lopez: 30 HR, 97 RBI, .287 BA

Lopez is clearly the better slugger, Posada has a slight edge in OPS (thanks to significantly higher OBP, but much lower SLG) . In fact, the only aspect to offensive performance you can cleary give to Posada is OBP (.375 to .337). (edit)…

While your subjective, personal opinion is that Posada is a better player, the career numbers, as they stand right this moment, clearly suggest Lopez has better qualifications for the Hall (not that he is necessarily Hall worthy, just more Hall worthy).

I think you are missing a large element here.

Posada is the better player per his rate stats.

.270/.375/.474 (JP)
vs.
.287/.337/.502 (JL)

The ISO is about the same: .204 vs. 215. So, they have virtually no difference in power.

The question, for the rate stats, is if the extra .017 points of batting average (much of which is made up of singles) makes up for the huge 038 difference in OBA. It does not.

If you weight OBA at 1.5 times SLG, Posada has a weighted OPS of 1.037. Lopez? 1.008. Edge, Posada (and I think the OBA is worth more than 1.5 times SLG).

For total career numbers, Posada clearly lacks. But, there is a good, *objective* argument that Posada is the “better” hitter.

[holyroller]

How does one state that Posada has a higher OPS due to his higher OBP (the most important ability for a hitter) and go on to say that Lopez is a better hitter?

[Skipaway]

Lopez also hit in slightly better hitter parks than Posada according to baseball-reference.

[KurtBevacqua]

Originally Posted by holyroller

How does one state that Posada has a higher OPS due to his higher OBP (the most important ability for a hitter) and go on to say that Lopez is a better hitter?

Higher Slugging % and Higher BA (things that have to do with actually hitting the ball, thus better hitting). The only thing Posada does better than Lopez is draw walks. Does that truly make him a better hitter?

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by KurtBevacqua

Higher Slugging % and Higher BA (things that have to do with actually hitting the ball, thus better hitting). The only thing Posada does better than Lopez is draw walks. Does that truly make him a better hitter?

So a .028 difference in SLG% is somehow more significant than a .038 difference in OBP? Posada also hits many more doubles than Lopez, and all in all is a better hitter than Lopez, even after you factor in Lopez's great 2003 season. Does that mean he's a Hall of Famer? No, not yet, but he's significantly closer than Lopez, IMO.

[pat]

Piazza and Rodriguez will definitely get the nod. Pudge isn't just a good batter, but good defensively too.. I don't know if the rumors of Mike being gay would affect the outcome..

[Joshv02]

Originally Posted by KurtBevacqua

Higher Slugging % and Higher BA (things that have to do with actually hitting the ball, thus better hitting). The only thing Posada does better than Lopez is draw walks. Does that truly make him a better hitter?

The extra hits are almost all singles. (The ISO is close to equal.)

So, yes. the extra walks/fewer outs makes him a better hitter in this situation. Not really close.