Should Avoid K Be a Primary Rating?

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by Sweed

I'm not seeing how this is much different than real life. A player can be a good contact hitter with an ability to avoid K's and yet not hit for average. Just because he can put the bat on the ball doesn't mean he will hit it hard. OOTP has to try to model this somehow and single contact rating just doesn't get the job done. The babip modifier makes the good contact but no pop kind of player possible.

I can only guess at what is under the hood of OOTP but my bet is that a high contact player is going to be more likely to have a high hidden babip rating. And yet not every player will, as it should be.

I could use myself and my brother as an example from many years ago in our high school days. He is one year older than me, 5'9" compared to my 5'8", and maybe 5 pounds heavier. He is a great athlete I am average on my best day. At 5'9" he could dunk a basketball I couldn't touch the rim. Playing baseball I could put the bat on the ball just as good as he could but it certainly didn't jump off my bat (wood bats in our day) like it did his. In OOTP we might have a similar contact ratings but his babip would certainly be higher. The conclusion I come from this is OOTP is trying to model this type of difference in players and doing a good job of it.

I think we also need to keep in mind OOTP more that likely also models players that have a low contact rating but a high babip rating. Maybe a Dave Kingman type guy that misses a lot of pitches but if he does get the bat on the ball it probably going to be hit hard. Again a good OOTP model at work under the hood.


I have no problem with the babip rating being hidden. In a very short time as your players come through the minors the stats should start to sort out who is who. Can't say I'd be in favor of it being a quantified scout discovered rating. Maybe a scout could comment how the ball seems to jump off a players bat to give an indication of what this guy might become. However, at least in today's world of amateur baseball, a ball is more than likely jumping off an aluminum bat and we have seen many prospects in real life be humbled by having to go to a wood bat. So limiting the scouts assessment until the guy actually plays some pro ball would seem appropriate to me. YMMV.

With regards to your side note I am not surprised at all on the result. Unless those guys can make up their low contact with maybe the ability to draw a BB they aren't going be worth much. Like my example above of me and my brother, a routine ground ball double play off my bat was a screaming ground ball hit that the fielder didn't have time to react to off my brother's bat.

Once again, none of this really has to do with my point. In fact, your "theories" about how the model works are things I've already mentioned
I've never said it's an unrealistic rating to have, nor have I said that it unrealistically models players. Though the realism is certainly debatable at the major league level. Kingman, your example, never hit above .288 and was a career .236 hitter.

So I actually think someone could make a good argument that OOTP BABIP values are sometimes too high and that AVOID K SHOULD be the predominant factor in contact, but that's for another thread and either way, that's not my gripe.

I think it's position as "on par" with the other four is misleading the way it is set up visually -- where it is located when it's primary value (helps a hitter increase his average) is already being counted within contact. For players that don't want to look under the hood it looks like a completely separate rating from contact, but in fact, it isn't.

[Isryion]

Originally Posted by le receveur

Greatest part of the rating, based on what i just read, it totally fits withing baseball in RL. everyone will look at it differently, and get confused in their interpretation... even the players.... my posterboy being JP Arencibia.... but HR are sexy...

I've got no problems with people valuing ratings differently but this isn't that. The confusion here is due to design issues within the game, not a misunderstanding of how that skill applies to baseball.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by Isryion

I've got no problems with people valuing ratings differently but this isn't that. The confusion here is due to design issues within the game, not a misunderstanding of how that skill applies to baseball.

but what i'm saying is RBI, ERA and other such are also design issues within THE Game, yet i see little people (other than me) wanting to have them removed. so i just learned to use them properly (as in NOT).

[PSUColonel]

Just like a popular beer commercial featuring "The Most Interesting Man in the World":


No

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Isryion

Once again, none of this really has to do with my point. In fact, your "theories" about how the model works are things I've already mentioned
I've never said it's an unrealistic rating to have, nor have I said that it unrealistically models players. Though the realism is certainly debatable at the major league level. Kingman, your example, never hit above .288 and was a career .236 hitter.

So I actually think someone could make a good argument that OOTP BABIP values are sometimes too high and that AVOID K SHOULD be the predominant factor in contact, but that's for another thread and either way, that's not my gripe.

I think it's position as "on par" with the other four is misleading the way it is set up visually -- where it is located when it's primary value (helps a hitter increase his average) is already being counted within contact. For players that don't want to look under the hood it looks like a completely separate rating from contact, but in fact, it isn't.

Was the real life Wade Boggs a great hitter because he as able to avoid K's so made good contact? Or was he great because he made good contact so didn't strike out a lot? Contact and Avoid K's aren't separate skills in real life why would they be in a game that wants to create the illusion of real life?

I can't for the life of me see why anyone, especially the type of guys that play a game like OOTP, would think avoid K and contact are completely separate ratings?


With regard to

"So I actually think someone could make a good argument that OOTP BABIP values are sometimes too high and that AVOID K SHOULD be the predominant factor in contact"

Well the babip is a hidden rating for good reason. In a past time where customizing your game and editing players wasn't available you wouldn't even know the babip was there. Remember that the hidden babip was added (at least nobody has posted to say I misremember this) to OOTP because the contact and avoid K ratings alone weren't producing realistic results.



Even knowing there is a babip rating that works with contact and avoid K's I would still submit avoid K is an important rating in OOTP and is just fine where it is at. Unless something has changed in the order of events that occur in an AB it is very important.

Since going to the DIPS model OOTP plate appearances first determine if a ball is put in play, a K, or a BB.

If it's a BB runner on 1b.

If it's a K batter back to dugout (yes, unless it's a dropped third strike). No chance for an error or hit. No chance for a runner to try to advance an extra base. No chance for anything.

If it's put in play then contact\babip, defense, wind, etc come into play.

So in an OOTP plate appearance the pitch comes in and the OOTP calculation first determines if the ball goes in play (does the batter avoid a K), a swing\miss, or a called strike (again avoid K comes into play) or a BB (eye). And yes contact\avoid K are interrelated ratings just as they are interrelated skills in real life.

According to the manual

Avoid K's
Avoid K's is a measure of how well a player avoids striking out. Avoid K's directly affects the number of times a player strikes out. For example, players with high Avoid K's ratings are more likely to foul off pitches with two strikes than to go down swinging.

In real life if you K there is almost no chance of something good happening.

Same in OOTP. If you can avoid a K then many good things can happen. If you CAN'T avoid a K then the ball never goes into play and babip never comes into play. The manual says avoid K directly affects the number of times a player strikes out How again is this not important?

[Honorable_Pawn]

ooops

[Honorable_Pawn]

Oh yeah...did you know that when a tree falls in the woods tht it does make a sound?

[Papa3]

One thing I notice in simming many, many seasons...the guys that don't strike out much always seem to have excellent batting averages. I'll list a few examples among players in a 67-year sim I'm working with now:

All-time Top Hits leaders (with hits, strikeouts, and AVG)

Top 4 catchers combined: 8927 H, 1284 K, .310
4 of Top 5 first basemen: 12146, 1958 K, .310. The #3 hits guy had 2126 K, but is the only one of top 5 below .300, at .274
4 of Top 5 second basemen: 10953 H, 1939 K, .311. Again, the #3 guy had 1511 K with lowest AVG (.280) of the bunch
4 of Top 5 third basemen: 13307 H, 2847 K, .336. The #3 guy here had 1480 K and again lowest AVG at .294
Among the top 10 all-time shortstops, the three with the most strikeouts had the three lowest batting averages.

38 guys have over 1,000 career strikeouts. Only 8 have an average above .280

Now let's ask ourselves if there's a difference in importance between EYE and AVOIDS K.

Of the top 38 career walks guys, 28 have an average above .280. Of the 10 who do not, 6 have more than 1,000 strikeouts. Only 4 of the other 28 walks leaders batting above .280 have over 1,000 K. That's 60% of players who are below .280 versus 14% who are above.

According to this small study, guys with a high EYE tend to have a good average, while guys with a high AVOIDS K also tend to have a good average.

Further, of the league's active career RBI leaders, 9 of the top 20 are batting below .280 All but one have more K than RBI. Meanwhile, 5 of these 20 are over .300 - only one has more K than RBI (and it isn't by much, 992 to 980)

Based on what I am seeing, I would certainly say that there is a direct correlation between a player's AVOIDS K and his batting average. And of course, reaching base on an error counts as an out as far as AVG is concerned. So that's just a bonus for these guys.

[rj58]

Originally Posted by Ktulu

I see what you're saying in a strict sense, but I don't think the relationship is that simple. The avoid K tells you quite a bit about what the contact rating means and how it will develop.

^^ this.

The combination of Contact/Plate Discipline/avoid K tells you a lot about the hitter. I would think avoid K means they attempt to make more contact in 2 strike situations... where as someone with a low avoid K will watch more strikes go by that aren't to his liking..

At least that is my take on the combination of these ratings. I see contact as ability, and avoid K as preference.

[Papa3]

Originally Posted by rj58

^^ this.



The combination of Contact/Plate Discipline/avoid K tells you a lot about the hitter. I would think avoid K means they attempt to make more contact in 2 strike situations... where as someone with a low avoid K will watch more strikes go by that aren't to his liking..



At least that is my take on the combination of these ratings. I see contact as ability, and avoid K as preference.

What you're saying is one of the great things about OOTP. We can use our imagination to interpret exactly how ratings are utilized by hitters. My imagination tells me a high rating means the ball is put in play more, bringing the "luck" attributed to BABIP into play more often. Of course a hitters Avg will be higher as a result compared to him just striking out.

Others have already mentioned the added chances for reaching on an error, sacrifice flies and outs that advance the runners. These benefits have to be accurate.

Beyond that, I think there is enough evidence to suggest Avoid K's is very useful and a hitter with a high rating will get more hits and RBI because of it, not ONLY striking out less.