Improvements to league evolution feature - Page 3

Nunyer · 08-24-2013, 10:03 AM

I don't know if offense plays that big of a role in attendance... They lowered the mound in 1969, which lead to an immediate boost in runs... yet attendance stayed largely static throughout most the 1970s. Expansion from Seattle and Toronto, who both drew very well in '77 with Toronto staying strong for the rest of the decade, was the only thing that broke the stagnation... and started a big upward climb in fans per game.

During my childhood / young adulthood coming up as a baseball fan... which we'll bookend from the SEA/TOR expansion through the COL/FLA expansion in 1993.. runs scored remained largely static but league attendance per game doubled during that stretch. Even ignoring 1993 and those 7.5 million tickets sold by Florida and Colorado, attendance still steadily grew by roughly 10,000 fans per game over a 15 year stretch where offense stayed level or actually decreased a tad over the late 80s/early 90s.

For folks my age, I think one of the biggest boost for baseball attendance was the fact that starting right around that same time, I could see multiple games a week on TV. Tigers games on the local channel, but also Cubs and Braves games with this new fangled cable TV. Pretty much every rainy day from April through summer vacation... from the time I can remember until adulthood... I was watching baseball on television. That is what made me a fan more than anything else... constant and/or consistent exposure. I think this exposure is what made me beg my parents to take me to as many games as they could afford... and I grew up with dozens of like minded kids in the 80s. Nobody gave a toss about football, pfft one game a week? Nobody gave a toss about basketball or hockey... all night games during the school year.. But baseball... that was around in force during the day on multiple channels when we had nothing else to do.

VanillaGorilla · 08-24-2013, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nunyer

Even ignoring 1993 and those 7.5 million tickets sold by Florida and Colorado, attendance still steadily grew by roughly 10,000 fans per game over a 15 year stretch where offense stayed level or actually decreased a tad over the late 80s/early 90s.

I think the boost in attendance is not that big. The boost in reported attendance came from the reported attendance changing from bodies through the turnstiles to tickets sold. I was at several Nationals games in RFK where the "attendance" was nearly 30,000 (with over 20,000 season tickets sold, that was the floor figure), but there were fewer than 10,000 people at the park.

I was at the linked game. Rainy day. Mid week afternoon game. There may have been 2,000 people there (and the usher let me sit in the front row behind the Nats dugout, even though my ticket was a section behind).

Was a cool game. Juan Marichal, Orlando Cepeda and Ozzie Smith all threw ceremonial first pitches. The best part was Alfonso Soriano giving me a wink when he came into the dugout. He had a liner hit right at him that fooled him, but he hustled after making the adjustment to it, to end the inning.

Since there was NO ONE there, I didn't even have to raise my voice when he neared the dugout and I said something to the effect of "Good job hanging with that one, Alf." I got this little boy grin and a wink from him, for that.

Soriano fan for life.

September 6, 2006 St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals Play by Play and Box Score - Baseball-Reference.com

Nunyer · 08-24-2013, 10:45 AM

I suppose... but I still think it's a fairly accurate representation of the popularity of the sport. People aren't going to buy tickets with absolutely no intention of using or selling them off. Simple fact of the matter is that far less people bought tickets per game in 1972 than 1992... Whether they bought them as part of a package in February or walked up to a box office at the stadium in July.

I do understand how on a few occasions here and there, ticket packages would inflate the numbers. I went in with two other people on Tigers season tickets about 5 years ago or so... My goal was to attend 20 games and sell off 7 games. In the end I sold my quota, but there where 2 or 3 games were I just ate the tickets. Either something came up at work, or the weather was crappy enough to where I didn't want to deal with it... And those are obviously seats that would have never been sold 40 years ago when pretty much everybody bought at the gate.

VanillaGorilla · 08-24-2013, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nunyer

I suppose... but I still think it's a fairly accurate representation of the popularity of the sport. People aren't going to buy tickets with absolutely no intention of using or selling them off. Simple fact of the matter is that far less people bought tickets per game in 1972 than 1992... Whether they bought them as part of a package in February or walked up to a box office at the stadium in July.

I do understand how on a few occasions here and there, ticket packages would inflate the numbers. I went in with two other people on Tigers season tickets about 5 years ago or so... My goal was to attend 20 games and sell off 7 games. In the end I sold my quota, but there where 2 or 3 games were I just ate the tickets. Either something came up at work, or the weather was crappy enough to where I didn't want to deal with it... And those are obviously seats that would have never been sold 40 years ago when pretty much everybody bought at the gate.

I agree that there are more tickets sold now than 40 years ago. I also think that MLB using "attendance" figures to compare 2013 to 1973 is dishonest and self-serving (nothing new).

Le Grande Orange · 08-24-2013, 11:53 AM

What drives attendance at major league games has been studied quite a bit in academic research. The main factors are: (1) population of the metropolitan area; (2) the club's record, in both the current season and the prior season; and (3) the competitive balance of the league. There are other factors, of course, but these are the most commonly cited ones.

There was one study in particular whose model was 97% accurate in replicating the actual total major league attendance for each MLB season since 1901. I can provide a citation for that if needed.

In terms of revenue, studies there have consistently found that it depends on the population of the metropolitan area and its per capita income. All other things being equal, a club in a larger city will earn more money. A more recent study found that the degree of improvement wasn't linear. So the larger a city is the more progressively larger its revenue advantage became, all other factors being equal.

For anyone interested in reading such research, check with your local library to see if it can access JSTOR. If it can, then you can search for and read all manner of academic research on a variety of subjects published in numerous journals. This include examinations of professional sports. (I've already downloaded something like thirty such research papers published on sports from JSTOR.)

Le Grande Orange · 08-24-2013, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla

I think the boost in attendance is not that big. The boost in reported attendance came from the reported attendance changing from bodies through the turnstiles to tickets sold.

No, I don't think so. The AL has always reported its attendance based on tickets sold. The NL up through the 1992 season reported turnstile counts for attendance (thus not counting no-shows), but since then it too has reported tickets sold.

Anyway, looks like I'll have to post up my handy graph of the MLB average per game attendance again later on.

VanillaGorilla · 08-24-2013, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

No, I don't think so. The AL has always reported its attendance based on tickets sold. The NL up through the 1992 season reported turnstile counts for attendance (thus not counting no-shows), but since then it too has reported tickets sold.)

OK, you are right about the AL (silly me forgetting that).

However, it is clear that the NL attendance numbers are yet another subset of game figures that have been juiced on Selig's watch.

Nunyer · 08-24-2013, 08:38 PM

Yea... if you attended any Tigers games during the mid/late 90s, it was clear they were counting season ticket holders. I don't remember the date, I'm sure if I took 10 mins to browse thru old boxscores I could find it.... But it was a cold, windy April day game... Tigers vs Twins... maybe 3,000 at first pitch. After falling behind early, Tigers storm back to take something like a 7-4 lead after three innings... then the bullpen surrendered about 20 runs down the stretch. Think they lost 28-12 or something ridiculous in what was easily the worst four hours I've ever spent watching baseball. By the 6th inning or whenever it was that they announced the "offical" attendance figure of 11,000 there might have been 500 or 600 people left. It was the only time in my history with Tiger Stadium that the ruthless old man ushers were actually telling people to move out of their paid seats to go closer.

Ok... I took the few mins and found the box score... My recollection wasn't that bad, Twins crush Tigers 24-11... Check out that Tigers pitching staff... How did they manage to drop 109 games with names of pitching legend like Clint Sodowsky and Brian Maxcy?!?

April 24, 1996 Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Play by Play and Box Score - Baseball-Reference.com

Ouch... poor Brian Maxcy... turns out the following day, an 11-1 drubbing from the Twins, was Brian's final appearance in the show.

David Watts · 08-24-2013, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nunyer

Yea... if you attended any Tigers games during the mid/late 90s, it was clear they were counting season ticket holders. I don't remember the date, I'm sure if I took 10 mins to browse thru old boxscores I could find it.... But it was a cold, windy April day game... Tigers vs Twins... maybe 3,000 at first pitch. After falling behind early, Tigers storm back to take something like a 7-4 lead after three innings... then the bullpen surrendered about 20 runs down the stretch. Think they lost 28-12 or something ridiculous in what was easily the worst four hours I've ever spent watching baseball. By the 6th inning or whenever it was that they announced the "offical" attendance figure of 11,000 there might have been 500 or 600 people left. It was the only time in my history with Tiger Stadium that the ruthless old man ushers were actually telling people to move out of their paid seats to go closer.

Ok... I took the few mins and found the box score... My recollection wasn't that bad, Twins crush Tigers 24-11... Check out that Tigers pitching staff... How did they manage to drop 109 games with names of pitching legend like Clint Sodowsky and Brian Maxcy?!?

April 24, 1996 Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Play by Play and Box Score - Baseball-Reference.com

Ouch... poor Brian Maxcy... turns out the following day, an 11-1 drubbing from the Twins, was Brian's final appearance in the show.

How oh how did I know that some how, some way, Richie Lewis had to have been involved.

The Wolf · 08-24-2013, 10:26 PM

We have TWO Tiger threads going at once?

08-24-2013, 10:45 AM	#43
Nunyer All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Baseball Ned Flanders stares into your soul... Posts: 594	I suppose... but I still think it's a fairly accurate representation of the popularity of the sport. People aren't going to buy tickets with absolutely no intention of using or selling them off. Simple fact of the matter is that far less people bought tickets per game in 1972 than 1992... Whether they bought them as part of a package in February or walked up to a box office at the stadium in July. I do understand how on a few occasions here and there, ticket packages would inflate the numbers. I went in with two other people on Tigers season tickets about 5 years ago or so... My goal was to attend 20 games and sell off 7 games. In the end I sold my quota, but there where 2 or 3 games were I just ate the tickets. Either something came up at work, or the weather was crappy enough to where I didn't want to deal with it... And those are obviously seats that would have never been sold 40 years ago when pretty much everybody bought at the gate. Last edited by Nunyer; 08-24-2013 at 10:48 AM.

08-24-2013, 08:38 PM	#48
Nunyer All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Baseball Ned Flanders stares into your soul... Posts: 594	Yea... if you attended any Tigers games during the mid/late 90s, it was clear they were counting season ticket holders. I don't remember the date, I'm sure if I took 10 mins to browse thru old boxscores I could find it.... But it was a cold, windy April day game... Tigers vs Twins... maybe 3,000 at first pitch. After falling behind early, Tigers storm back to take something like a 7-4 lead after three innings... then the bullpen surrendered about 20 runs down the stretch. Think they lost 28-12 or something ridiculous in what was easily the worst four hours I've ever spent watching baseball. By the 6th inning or whenever it was that they announced the "offical" attendance figure of 11,000 there might have been 500 or 600 people left. It was the only time in my history with Tiger Stadium that the ruthless old man ushers were actually telling people to move out of their paid seats to go closer. Ok... I took the few mins and found the box score... My recollection wasn't that bad, Twins crush Tigers 24-11... Check out that Tigers pitching staff... How did they manage to drop 109 games with names of pitching legend like Clint Sodowsky and Brian Maxcy?!? April 24, 1996 Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Play by Play and Box Score - Baseball-Reference.com Ouch... poor Brian Maxcy... turns out the following day, an 11-1 drubbing from the Twins, was Brian's final appearance in the show. Last edited by Nunyer; 08-24-2013 at 08:39 PM.

08-24-2013, 10:03 AM	#41
Nunyer All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Baseball Ned Flanders stares into your soul... Posts: 594	I don't know if offense plays that big of a role in attendance... They lowered the mound in 1969, which lead to an immediate boost in runs... yet attendance stayed largely static throughout most the 1970s. Expansion from Seattle and Toronto, who both drew very well in '77 with Toronto staying strong for the rest of the decade, was the only thing that broke the stagnation... and started a big upward climb in fans per game. During my childhood / young adulthood coming up as a baseball fan... which we'll bookend from the SEA/TOR expansion through the COL/FLA expansion in 1993.. runs scored remained largely static but league attendance per game doubled during that stretch. Even ignoring 1993 and those 7.5 million tickets sold by Florida and Colorado, attendance still steadily grew by roughly 10,000 fans per game over a 15 year stretch where offense stayed level or actually decreased a tad over the late 80s/early 90s. For folks my age, I think one of the biggest boost for baseball attendance was the fact that starting right around that same time, I could see multiple games a week on TV. Tigers games on the local channel, but also Cubs and Braves games with this new fangled cable TV. Pretty much every rainy day from April through summer vacation... from the time I can remember until adulthood... I was watching baseball on television. That is what made me a fan more than anything else... constant and/or consistent exposure. I think this exposure is what made me beg my parents to take me to as many games as they could afford... and I grew up with dozens of like minded kids in the 80s. Nobody gave a toss about football, pfft one game a week? Nobody gave a toss about basketball or hockey... all night games during the school year.. But baseball... that was around in force during the day on multiple channels when we had nothing else to do.

08-24-2013, 11:53 AM	#45
Le Grande Orange Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Up There Posts: 15,642	What drives attendance at major league games has been studied quite a bit in academic research. The main factors are: (1) population of the metropolitan area; (2) the club's record, in both the current season and the prior season; and (3) the competitive balance of the league. There are other factors, of course, but these are the most commonly cited ones. There was one study in particular whose model was 97% accurate in replicating the actual total major league attendance for each MLB season since 1901. I can provide a citation for that if needed. In terms of revenue, studies there have consistently found that it depends on the population of the metropolitan area and its per capita income. All other things being equal, a club in a larger city will earn more money. A more recent study found that the degree of improvement wasn't linear. So the larger a city is the more progressively larger its revenue advantage became, all other factors being equal. For anyone interested in reading such research, check with your local library to see if it can access JSTOR. If it can, then you can search for and read all manner of academic research on a variety of subjects published in numerous journals. This include examinations of professional sports. (I've already downloaded something like thirty such research papers published on sports from JSTOR.)