HS/College pitchers need to be fixed in 14!

[D-BacksJosh]

Originally Posted by Sabermetric Baseball

This might already be built into the game engine, but if not I'd like to see usage directly influence the likelihood of developing a third pitch.

If a prospect spends an entire season in a minor league rotation, they're more likely to have their coaches pressuring them to develop and throw a third pitch (and perhaps less likely to see bumps in velocity).

I agree. I can see how pitchers out of high school would probably only have 2 strong pitches and maybe 1 that they are trying to learn but have not mastered yet. But spending time in the minors should result in them learning a new pitch or at least perfecting that 3rd one. That is what the minors are for... teaching and developing, correct? The main things scouts look for in pitchers is arm strength and then pitch mechanics.

[jaxmagicman]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

I hate when people say this. Just because a particular feature is working "as designed" does not always mean it was implemented in the best manner from it's inception/conception. I can point to a number of features that fall into this category.

I can understand you making the mistake, but why would Cryomaniac thank you when I was clearly still defending him?

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...hics-ootp.html

[Cryomaniac]

Originally Posted by jaxmagicman

I can understand you making the mistake, but why would Cryomaniac thank you when I was clearly still defending him?

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...hics-ootp.html

I thank people often, and sometimes for making a good point even if I disagree with it.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by D-BacksJosh

I agree. I can see how pitchers out of high school would probably only have 2 strong pitches and maybe 1 that they are trying to learn but have not mastered yet. But spending time in the minors should result in them learning a new pitch or at least perfecting that 3rd one. That is what the minors are for... teaching and developing, correct? The main things scouts look for in pitchers is arm strength and then pitch mechanics.

How many HS/college starters have you heard of who don't have a third pitch?

[D-BacksJosh]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

How many HS/college starters have you heard of who don't have a third pitch?

My comment was strictly about HS pitchers. I'm not saying that HS pitchers only know how to throw 2 pitches. I am sure that beyond the basics (fastball and changeup) scouts would most likely want to see a HS pitcher throw a curveball that has potential. So if a HS pitcher is going to work on anything extra that would probably be it. Seems to me that velocity and pitch mechanics would be higher on a scout's list then the amount of different pitches a HS pitcher can throw.

[Cryomaniac]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

How many HS/college starters have you heard of who don't have a third pitch?

Not strictly related, but somewhat, aren't there some coaches that recommend HS pitchers don't throw breaking balls at all (due to their habit of well, breaking, elbows)? If so then a fair few HS pitchers, if they have 3 pitches, should have, say a Fastball, Sinker and a Changeup.

[D-BacksJosh]

Originally Posted by Cryomaniac

Not strictly related, but somewhat, aren't there some coaches that recommend HS pitchers don't throw breaking balls at all (due to their habit of well, breaking, elbows)? If so then a fair few HS pitchers, if they have 3 pitches, should have, say a Fastball, Sinker and a Changeup.

Yes there has been some debate over the years on whether the curveball is harmful. Some have come to the conclusion that actually throwing the curveball is not harmful in and of itself, but the number of times it is thrown that causes the damage. Ive also read articles about not teaching the curveball until the age of 13 or over. Little leagues and schools across the country are continuing to implement pitch count rules because of overuse.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Cryomaniac

Not strictly related, but somewhat, aren't there some coaches that recommend HS pitchers don't throw breaking balls at all (due to their habit of well, breaking, elbows)? If so then a fair few HS pitchers, if they have 3 pitches, should have, say a Fastball, Sinker and a Changeup.

I hope you don't mean broken elbows literally. Yes, a breaking ball can be harmful to an elbow when thrown improperly. But improper use of pitchers and improper care of a pitcher's arm are much bigger culprits in causing injuries.

I have no data to prove this, but I'm very confident in saying that every high school pitcher who has ever been drafted has had some sort of breaking ball in his repertoire. Maybe it wasn't one of their two best pitches and maybe they were able to win games in high school without throwing a breaking ball, but they all know how to throw some type of breaking ball and have done it in a game at some point, if only a handful of times. No scout in his right mind could suggest drafting a pitcher without having seen that pitcher attempt to throw a breaking ball at some point.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by D-BacksJosh

Yes there has been some debate over the years on whether the curveball is harmful. Some have come to the conclusion that actually throwing the curveball is not harmful in and of itself, but the number of times it is thrown that causes the damage. Ive also read articles about not teaching the curveball until the age of 13 or over. Little leagues and schools across the country are continuing to implement pitch count rules because of overuse.

This is mostly true, except that it's generally accepted that a properly thrown curveball is not harmful in any way.

There are many people in baseball at all levels who believe wholeheartedly in pitch counts to keep pitchers healthy. And there are also many who believe pitch counts are detrimental to a pitcher's development, Nolan Ryan being the most visible among them. You can talk to 10 different pitching experts and five will tell you pitchers should be limited in how much they throw and the other five will tell you pitchers need to throw as much as possible for as long as possible to build arm strength.

[darkcloud4579]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Actually, that is intentional... many HS / college pitchers are able to succeed there as starters with only two pitches. These will end up as relievers eventually when becoming pro.

Or where exactly is the problem?

There are FARRRRR too many. We need to be able to control the ratio or something. This whole random 3rd pitch model is failing horrendously, it's terrible and ruins the game experience for SO many leagues.

[NomarHits400]

Even if this works as intended- and this may have already been mentioned, it utterly ruins my desire to perform a draft in feeder leagues: Drafting a SP past the first round is an utter crapshoot. Almost all the good prospects have two pitches. The game doesn't give me any tools with which to decipher or predict who might develop that elusive third pitch- if at all, which I've never had happen with any success with any pitcher I've drafted. I've abandoned Feeder leagues completely because of this.

[ike121212]

Originally Posted by darkcloud4579

We need to be able to control the ratio or something.

+1 If you're recoding player creation algorithms, then please give us a pcm for this.

[olivertheorem]

It seems to me that the fix is simple, at least on the surface (not being a programmer). If the "2 good pitches plus 1 that might develop" is working for players created out of whole cloth for the draft, but is not effecting those created out of whole cloth for HS/college feeders*, then could not the coding for the straight-to-the-draft players be duplicated for HS/college feeder player creation?

* - I obviously do not know Markus' mind on this, but perhaps he has it this way on the notion that the extra 4 years in HS/college (more for guys that make the HS-to-college transition) are sufficient for them to randomly acquire a third pitch, in which case the underlying issue may be that new pitches are not learned often enough, and not that HS/college players are not created properly.

[Cryomaniac]

Originally Posted by olivertheorem

* - I obviously do not know Markus' mind on this, but perhaps he has it this way on the notion that the extra 4 years in HS/college (more for guys that make the HS-to-college transition) are sufficient for them to randomly acquire a third pitch, in which case the underlying issue may be that new pitches are not learned often enough, and not that HS/college players are not created properly.

That's perhaps part of it. As I said earlier, hopefully it should be a matter of more pitchers having 3 pitches, but most of them only really developing 2 of them. The problem perhaps is how the AI handles borderline cases (eg a pitcher with a fastball, changeup and slider rated 10, 9 and 5, with 6 or 7 stamina, should they be a SP or a MR?). Players like that may well bounce back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation, which doesn't really happen much in real life.

[Lukas Berger]

As someone who's a bit fanatical about amateur baseball on the HS and college level, who spends more money than he can afford on an expensive subscription to Perfect Game, and has been adding a ton of HS and college players into OOTP both in my NCAA/HS roster project and other ways...

Very few of the HS pitchers on the Perfect Game website are listed as having only two pitches.

Just based on my impressions, I'd say about 75% are listed as having a fastball, change and a breaking pitch, 20% as having 4 pitches (Probably half of those including a slider and cb that have similar speeds. My take on that is that it's really only three pitches since the slider/cb combo is likely a poorly refined slurve that looks different in different viewings), and 5% are listed as having only 2 pitches. Most of those are viewed by PG as relief prospects.

That's something they almost never say about a pitcher since they're generally overwhelmingly positive. Essentially the only HS pitchers they actually specify are relief prospects are those they list as having only two pitches.

So I'd say that pitchers having only two pitches should be very much the exception, not the rule. Perhaps the third pitch could be very poor, but it should be there. Often PG will list two pitches for one viewing and three for another, thus the third pitch is likely so poor that the pitcher doesn't always have the confidence/ability to throw it.

If a pitcher truly has only two pitches he should probably be automatically classified as a RP. Perhaps those pitchers should still have the potential to develop a third pitch, if they do so it would allow them to have a shot at starting.

Which brings up another point that I won't elaborate on too much since it's already been mentioned somewhere on the forums. Stamina should probably be somewhat less deterministic than currently. A pitcher's stamina should be tied to the amount of pitches he has and the role his current team wishes to use him in. It shouldn't be an absolute value but one that changes with his assigned role. Perhaps there could even be a current and potential rating for stamina with the potential being absolute and the current being variable, based on role. So for most pitchers the potential would allow them to start. The current value might not, but would change gradually over time. The change would occur as they either get stretched out into an SP or used to a relief role, whenever they are assigned to a different role on the staff.

Most pitchers at the lower levels are capable of starting or relieving as the team wishes (HS, college, MiLB somewhat, and even MLB to a lesser extent). They're typically assigned to a RP role only if they aren't one of the top pitchers on the team and thus one of the best choices to start. That's generally only a temporary thing. Especially at the amateur levels, once one of the starters graduates usually a RP who has performed well in the role gets the chance to start. To me, that's how OOTP should model pitchers, with the stamina depending on the role, not vice-versa as it is now.

If needed, I can calculate the hard data from PG regarding how many pitches HS pitchers are listed as having. It'd be quite a job so I'd prefer to do so only if it's actually going to be useful in determining if the current model should be changed, i.e. if Markus requests it. Otherwise I'd really prefer to spend the time on my other projects.

[Cryomaniac]

Originally Posted by lukasberger

If needed, I can calculate the hard data from PG regarding how many pitches HS pitchers are listed as having. It'd be quite a job so I'd prefer to do so only if it's actually going to be useful in determining if the current model should be changed, i.e. if Markus requests it. Otherwise I'd really prefer to spend the time on my other projects.

That could be useful info, definitely, even if it was just an average of number of pitches per player (my guess it that would probably be in the 2.9 to 3.2 range, but that's nothing more than a gut feeling lol).

[Lukas Berger]

Not enough data to be useful yet, but did a quick analysis of the players primarily listed as P's in PG's top 100 HS prospects eligible for the 2013 draft. A lot are two way players, tried to include only those with pitching ability that would merit their overall ranking. Not those ranked because of their bat who happen to pitch too but at a much lower level than they hit.

It's worth noting that there's some overlap between the categories in that pitches are listed for each PG event a player attended. In some events the same guy might only have thrown two pitches, in others four.

Generally I've considered the total amount of pitches thrown over all events. I've also included in between categories. The 2.5 category is for those who are generally listed as having only two pitches but showed a third pitch in one or two events. The 3.5 category for those who have two breaking pitches listed but with similar (within 0-3 mph) speeds, leading to the conclusion that they really throw a slurve that looks different at different times.

The results are as follows:

38 P's

2 pitches: 3
2.5 pitches: 2
3 pitches: 16
3.5 pitches: 8
4 pitches: 9

I'll try to add more data to this post as I get a chance to go further through the list.

[Cryomaniac]

Originally Posted by lukasberger

Not enough data to be useful yet, but did a quick analysis of the players primarily listed as P's in PG's top 100 HS prospects eligible for the 2013 draft. A lot are two way players, tried to iclude only those who's pitching ability would merit their overall ranking. Not those ranked because of their bat who happen to pitch too but at a much lower level than they hit.

It's worth noting that there's some overlap between the categories in that pitches are listed for each PG event a player attended. In some events the same guy might only have thrown two pitches, in others four.

Generally I've considered the total amount of pitches thrown over all events. I've also included in between categories. The 2.5 category is for those who are generally listed as having only two pitches but showed a third pitch in one or two events. The 3.5 category for those who have two breaking pitches listed but with similar (within 0-3 mph) speeds, leading to the conclusion that they really throw a slurve that looks different at different times.

The results are as follows:

38 P's

2 pitches: 3
2.5 pitches: 2
3 pitches: 16
3.5 pitches: 8
4 pitches: 9

I'll try to add more data to this post as I get a chance to go further through the list.

I make that about 3.4 pitches per player, which is slightly higher than I thought, but it makes sense.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Cryomaniac

I make that about 3.4 pitches per player, which is slightly higher than I thought, but it makes sense.

Well, wait to see what happens when I get some more data added. I'd assume that the top prospects will generally throw more pitchers than the lower ranked guys so that number will likely drop as more data is added.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by lukasberger

Well, wait to see what happens when I get some more data added. I'd assume that the top prospects will generally throw more pitchers than the lower ranked guys so that number will likely drop as more data is added.

I don't think that's a wise assumption. I live in an area that produces very few Division I-caliber baseball players and even less MLB Draft-caliber players, and most high school pitchers throw three or more pitches. They obviously aren't particularly good in the grand scheme, but many kids who can't break 80 mph with their fastball still throw a breaking ball and a third pitch (changeup, cutter, etc.).

Considering you're taking data from Perfect Game, which typically deals with the better high school players, I'm confident that the average stays above three pitches.