The NLCS: Mets vs Cardinals

[ctorg]

It looks to me like Game 1 will probably be canceled due to both the weather and the tragedy involving Cory Lidle.

Not to be callous about the tragedy (deepest sympathies to the families of both Lidle and the instructor), but how does this affect the series?

It seems to me that it could shift some advantage toward the Cardinals, since Carpenter could conceivably pitch sooner in the series now.

[Raderick]

Originally Posted by ctorg

It looks to me like Game 1 will probably be canceled due to both the weather and the tragedy involving Cory Lidle.

Not to be callous about the tragedy (deepest sympathies to the families of both Lidle and the instructor), but how does this affect the series?

It seems to me that it could shift some advantage toward the Cardinals, since Carpenter could conceivably pitch sooner in the series now.

Carpenter was a former teammate of Lidle in Toronto.

[Cooleyvol]

It definitely will aid the Cardinals if it gets Carp three starts.

[dsvitak]

The game for this evening has been postponed until tomorrow.

Game 2 will be 4 pm EST on Friday.

This is good news for the Cardinals...and there is a chance that tomorrows game will be rained out as well.

If thats the case, then the Cards get to pitch Carpenter three times, in games 1, 4, and 7.

Bottom line is that the Mets pitching isn't the pitching that allowed the Mets to win 97 games.

Bottom line is that the Cardinals will potentially have Carpenter for 3 of the 7 starts.....42%. Carpenter for three starts, and Suppan for the other two will be DAMNED difficult to beat.

107 AB, not 94. Include the 13 walks. Either way, .181 speaks for itself, just as the .306 vs. Glavine does, and the 1.75 WHIP for Perez, and the 1.60 WHIP for Trachsel.

[GForce]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

Bottom line is that the Cardinals will potentially have Carpenter for 3 of the 7 starts.....42%.

So you're reduced to praying for rain. Gotcha.

Carpenter for three starts, and Suppan for the other two will be DAMNED difficult to beat.

This season, Suppan faced the Mets once...4 runs in 6.2 IP, 5.40 ERA. Wasn't DAMNED difficult to beat that night.

107 AB, not 94. Include the 13 walks. Either way, .181 speaks for itself

Yes, based on guys with 10-15 ABs per against that pitcher. That is statistically INSIGNIFICANT. You can tell a lot about Jose Reyes' 3 ABs against Carpenter, or Delgado's 3 against him.

I realize you neglected to address this, putting your hands over your ears in "I can't hear you" mode, but the "bottom line" is that your matchups are based on such a small sample size that they are completely meaningless.

BTW, walks aren't ABs. And either is far from the 200 you proclaimed earlier. Your already irrelevant data was made half as relevant.

and the 1.75 WHIP for Perez, and the 1.60 WHIP for Trachsel.

You said earlier a .232 average against Suppan by the Mets was such a plus (yes, you corrected it to .223 later, but you were still so sure it was a positive when it was .232). I pointed out the Cards avg versus Trachsel is .237. But you chose to neglect that, because it didn't support the rest of your silly contentions. So in his case, you reverted to full-season WHIP. Which is it? Are we going with full-season data or head to head?

Because in either case, the real BOTTOM LINE is

Full season: Mets had the better record
Head-to-head: Mets had the better record

This season, Suppan faced the Mets once...4 runs in 6.2 IP, 5.40 ERA. Weaver faced the Mets once...no decision, giving up 4 runs in 5 IP, 7.20 ERA
Tyler Johnson 1.71 WHIP vs. the Mets

This season, Oliver Perez posted a 4.82 ERA against the Cards...guess they had a harder time with Perez than the Mets have with either Suppan or Weaver.

I mean, if we're going to throw out statistically meaningless data, let's at least keep it current.

Your earlier point was your best one. Pray for another day of rain to start Carpenter 3 times. It's your best shot.

GH

[kq76]

It's tough to bet against the Mets in this series (I'm big on momentum) and I won't, but I wouldn't mind seeing them lose just to piss of the Force.

[Cooleyvol]

Originally Posted by GForce

This season, Suppan faced the Mets once...4 runs in 6.2 IP, 5.40 ERA. Wasn't DAMNED difficult to beat that night.
GH

Isn't that..........how did you put it..............'a small sample size'? That would make it.............what was your term.............'STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT', wouldn't it?

Now don't go off on me there, Farce..........just pointing out things that you seem to be big on when its the other way around. Don't go reporting this post on me.

[ctorg]

If there's one thing I always find amusing in sports, it's how much people will argue over which team will win before the teams play. Whatever happens, you can always look back on it and see how silly the arguments were. What ends up happening on the field usually deviates from everyone's expectations in some way or other.

Bad teams beat good teams in best-of-7 series from time to time. Good teams stumble or have bad stretches. I mean, the Mets got swept by the Pirates not long ago. That's pretty low. I think playoff series are significantly decided by luck.

[GForce]

Originally Posted by Cooleyvol

Isn't that..........how did you put it..............'a small sample size'? That would make it.............what was your term.............'STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT', wouldn't it?

Now don't go off on me there, Farce..........just pointing out things that you seem to be big on when its the other way around. Don't go reporting this post on me.

What happened to ignoring me Cooley...geeze, you couldn't even make it 48 hours after your declaration?

I can't believe you are so blind to see I was showing the absurdity of his cherry-picked stats by posting equally insignificant cherry-picked stats to counter them. Unless, of course, you DO see that and are simply trolling.

Nah, you would NEVER do that.

You're obviously pretty bothered, but please don't go bringin' a gun to work today, OK mailman?

GH

[GForce]

Originally Posted by kq76

It's tough to bet against the Mets in this series (I'm big on momentum) and I won't, but I wouldn't mind seeing them lose just to piss of the Force.

LOL!! I've said the Cards could win. They're capable, absolutely. But the Mets are the better team and they SHOULD win. Of course, come playoff time, what "should" happen is often disrupted. I think, and hope, this won't be one of those times, but I could certainly be wrong, and it would certainly be disappointing.

If the Cards lose to the Mets, though, you may need to check bridges for Cooley. Of course, he'll bring a laptop up there with him so he can check my last post first

GH

[andymac]

This thread sucks. If I make a new thread about this series, will you guys stay in this one for me please?

[GForce]

Originally Posted by andymac

This thread sucks. If I make a new thread about this series, will you guys stay in this one for me please?

Nah, I'm sticking to baseball, Cooley's attempts at sabotage notwithstanding.

Weather supposedly will be fine tonight. Rain is ending this morning. Supposedly LaRussa is contemplating Carpenter in Game 2 instead of 3, despite his awesome home ERA. He'd still only pitch 2 games, so I'm not sure how smart this would be. You would basically keep him from pitching where he's been best all year.

One plus for the Cards...the rainout guarantees Oliver Perez will take the mound. Glavine could have gone on 3 days rest in Game 4, but that's out the window now.

GH

[ctorg]

Is it wrong of me to automatically just assume that the Perez-started game will go to the Cardinals? Maybe they could just not play that game, consider it a Cards win, and play the next game with some extra rest.

Okay, I'm exaggerating, but man, I wish we had someone better.

Question: Why isn't it a consideration to start Carpenter with short rest today? Is he one of those guys who just can't pitch on short rest? With the difference between his skills and the rest of the starters on the Cards, I'd think he'd be better than the others even with less rest.

[andymac]

Originally Posted by GForce

Weather supposedly will be fine tonight. Rain is ending this morning. Supposedly LaRussa is contemplating Carpenter in Game 2 instead of 3, despite his awesome home ERA. He'd still only pitch 2 games, so I'm not sure how smart this would be. You would basically keep him from pitching where he's been best all year.

One plus for the Cards...the rainout guarantees Oliver Perez will take the mound. Glavine could have gone on 3 days rest in Game 4, but that's out the window now.

GH

I'm not a big believer in home/road splits being particularly important. Unless pitching at Busch somehow hides a fundamental flaw that Carpenter has (which isn't the case for him) I don't really think it matters, it is just a sample size issue. Moving Carpenter up makes sense to me because it means he pitches earlier in the series...making it more likely that the Cardinals get to the later games. I do wish they would pitch Suppan tonight and move Weaver to game 3 though...I trust him more.

[Cooleyvol]

Originally Posted by GForce

What happened to ignoring me Cooley...geeze, you couldn't even make it 48 hours after your declaration?

I can't believe you are so blind to see I was showing the absurdity of his cherry-picked stats by posting equally insignificant cherry-picked stats to counter them. Unless, of course, you DO see that and are simply trolling.

Nah, you would NEVER do that.

You're obviously pretty bothered, but please don't go bringin' a gun to work today, OK mailman?

GH

Ignoring you had a short time out once you PMed me with a reply to a PM sent to you months ago.

Ignoring you is back on again for me now.

[marioh]

Originally Posted by ctorg

Is it wrong of me to automatically just assume that the Perez-started game will go to the Cardinals? Maybe they could just not play that game, consider it a Cards win, and play the next game with some extra rest.

Okay, I'm exaggerating, but man, I wish we had someone better.

I wouldn't be so quick to give up on Perez like that. The maddening thing with him is his inconsistency. The guy has the type of stuff to be almost unhittable when he's on his game. Too bad those times are few and far between.

I wouldn't be surprised if Perez shut down the Cards in his start, but I'm certainly not counting on it.

The Mets are going to have to pound the Cards into submission with their offense. And that is made alot easier with the Cards only good pitcher pitching twice in this series, and the lack of quality lefties that the Cards can run out there.

[ctorg]

Originally Posted by marioh

the lack of quality lefties that the Cards can run out there.

This will be a key for any team facing the Mets.

[GForce]

Originally Posted by marioh

I wouldn't be so quick to give up on Perez like that. The maddening thing with him is his inconsistency. The guy has the type of stuff to be almost unhittable when he's on his game. Too bad those times are few and far between.

The biggest problem with the rainout is that you no longer have the option of using Glavine on 3-days rest. Perez HAS to pitch. If the Mets are somehow down 2-1 at that point, you're asking a heck of a lot out of both Perez and your offense.

I'm not so sure I wouldn't have thrown Dave Williams instead of Perez. The kid who'll be facing Perez is nothing good either, so that day could well be an 8-6 battle.

GH

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by marioh

I wouldn't be so quick to give up on Perez like that. The maddening thing with him is his inconsistency. The guy has the type of stuff to be almost unhittable when he's on his game. Too bad those times are few and far between.

I wouldn't be surprised if Perez shut down the Cards in his start, but I'm certainly not counting on it.

The Mets are going to have to pound the Cards into submission with their offense. And that is made alot easier with the Cards only good pitcher pitching twice in this series, and the lack of quality lefties that the Cards can run out there.

Cardinals team WHIP for the year is 1.38

Mets team WHIP for the year is 1.48

This is with Pedro, and El Duque, with 249 innings between them, 291 baserunners...this is 1.15 or so, making their PLAYOFF roster even worse than the 1.48...likely above 1.6.

This is also WITHOUT Marquis and Mulder, who pitched 288 innings of WHIP 1.5+, making THEIR playoff pitching staff BETTER than their season long 1.38 WHIP would indicate. Ditto Izzy, sadly, also above 1.5 WHIP.

Note that without Mulder and Marquis, the Card's team ERA for 2006 drops by a FULL half a run per game, and becomes lower than the Mets. They gave up a combined 213 runs in 288 innings....runs per game of 6.65.

Suppan has, over 221 Mets AB, an opponents batting average against of .223. I'll take that, anyday.

Explain to me, USING STATISTICAL DATA, how the Mets pitching staff is better than the Cardinals?

[MuertoDesagradecido]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

Explain to me, USING STATISTICAL DATA, how the Mets pitching staff is better than the Cardinals?

Catch me if I'm wrong here, but didn't he just say the Cardinals only had one good pitcher not that the Mets are any better? I mean, I think both teams have pretty damn uninspiring pitching staffs.