Orcin Returns

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2018 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart

The road map for next season’s roster follows. This analysis will assume no Longoria, just like last year, except this time the door is NOT open for him to return.

Starting Pitchers

Alec Potvin (17-8, 3.20 ERA), obtained from San Diego in mid-season, is our new #1 starter. Michael Bowles (17-7, 3.66 ERA) is ready to become #1A. These two guys at the top of the rotation make me very comfortable about trading Longoria. Potvin is in his last year of arbitration eligibility. As soon as I can create some budget room, I will work on a contract extension for him.

Lefty Chao Yang (14-5, 3.89 ERA) earned another season in the rotation while we wait for prospect Dean Daniels (10-11, 5.00 ERA at AAA) to get his great stuff under control. Likewise, rookie Clyde Fuller (4-4, 3.73 ERA) showed enough at the end of the season to warrant a long look for next year. AAA Pitcher of the Year Mauro Acevedo has to be in the mix. Domingo Lopez (4-7, 5.03 ERA) has a minor league option remaining and will be good injury insurance. I want to add another proven right-hander to the rotation to challenge the young guys and give us some depth in case of injuries.

Bullpen

The first four spots in the bullpen are claimed by excellent young talent: Daniel Carlson, Santiago Flores, Ray Forrest, and lefty Salvador Felix. Roles will be determined in the spring, but I am inclined to use Carlson as the closer, Forrest/Felix in setup, and Flores as a multi-inning and high-leverage guy. Carlson is arbitration eligible but the others are still at minimum salary. Brendan Polk and Arturo Hernandez had good seasons and will return. Lefty specialist Bruce Irvine posted a 2.30 ERA against left-handed batters.

Catcher

Ryan Edwards (.237/.299/.344) just stunk at the plate but he was pretty good behind it. Edwards’ OPS of .643 was right there next to Gary Arkle in the list of regular catchers. However, Edwards had fewer errors and a higher CS% than Arkle. Journeyman backup Gregory Gardner was better than Edwards in a much smaller sample. I will give serious consideration to upgrading this position and using Edwards as the backup. No, really, I mean it this time. This is where some of my Longoria money needs to go.

First Base

Talk about nice problems… Jose Martinez (.285/.373/.515m 24 HR, 91 RBI) is one of the best clutch hitters in the league (OPS of .880 with runners in scoring position). He shows up to work every day, and he is a great influence in the clubhouse. I could not ask for a better player at this position, but I might have one wasting away at Lexington. MVP Ricky Allen tore up the league down there in AAA, and he is major-league ready. Unfortunately, neither one of these guys can play anywhere else without becoming a huge defensive liability. Adding to the logjam, Frank Carson is a solid backup and he can also play third base. Martinez isn’t going anywhere and, in fact, I want to sign him to a long-term deal if possible. Allen should be in high demand, and this might be the time to trade him. I don’t want him to regress playing another season at AAA.

Second Base

I tried to kick Lance Morrison (.288/.328/.417) to the bench, first with Patrick Guillaume and then with rookie Paco Morales. I kept coming back to Morrison because he is very reliable and steady. Now, rookie Rich Seaman (.320 at AAA, .396 for us in September) will challenge for the job. Morales has the most upside and will be in the starting lineup somewhere, but maybe not Louisville. Morrison will definitely be on the active roster. Seaman plays all three infield spots, and he is the best backup for Vargas at shortstop.

Third Base

Phil Gillespie (.312/.330/.546, 27 HR, 107 RBI) is etched in stone as the starter. He will play 150 games, lead the team in most offensive categories, and will probably win a Gold Glove too. Behind him on the depth chart, INF Mariano Ramirez (.324/.457/.544 at AAA) is arbitration eligible and fragile. We sure are piling up the trade assets, aren’t we?

Shortstop

Luis Vargas (.306/.354/.350) doesn’t hit for power at all, but he gets on base and plays shortstop at a Gold Glove level. He lacks the speed to be the ideal leadoff man, but he still had 20 stolen bases. He is expensive, but worth it when healthy. I have Morrison and Seaman as backups, but I really need to identify a long-term replacement.

Left Field

Hector Castro (.266/.306/.452) tailed off at the end of the season but he has potential. Shawn Tanner (.319/.373/.615 in 88 games) was very productive when he was healthy, but he is injury prone. This is the position where the best hitter on the team should be playing, but Castro or Tanner will never be that guy. Washington needs pitching badly, and they have that guy plus a ton of budget room. Can you smell a trade coming?

Center Field

Bryan McConnell (.318/.385/.490 in 70 games) was having a great season when he broke his elbow. Joe Gregory is a good utility outfielder to hit from the right side. That’s two pretty good players to man this spot. Jose Diaz (.225/.287/.382 in 52 games) is the most frustrating high-potential prospect on the planet. Diaz has 575 career at bats now, with a stat line of .221/.286/.365 to show for it. Will he ever live up to his potential? Our #1 prospect, Steve Evans, will be at Lexington this year. He can play center field and he bats right-handed with elite power, so there will be competition for Diaz soon.

Right Field

Brian Ferguson (.251/.352/.384, 29 SB) had his usual season. He is a steady major league player, but his power is a bit light for a corner outfield spot. Miguel Bustamante showed promise at times, but is probably a fringe player. Jack Bunney (.323/.394/.568 at AAA) has great defensive tools, speed, and exceptional power. I want to see more of Bunney at the major league level. There are still plenty of left-handed corner outfielders on this team, including Castro and Tanner, despite my efforts to cull the herd.

Conclusion

The highest priority is to put a bat in this lineup that brings the level of run production up to the level of Salt Lake City and Los Angeles, i.e. another 100 runs per season. We will have a competitive post-season team if that can be accomplished while the pitching and defense remain at their current level. The secondary priority is an upgrade at catcher. Yes, I am really serious this time. No kidding. The third priority, but still important, is to add a proven right-handed starter to replace the soon-to-be-departed Longoria.

[Orcin]

First Day of the Off-Season

Task 1: Fill open personnel positions

The position of scouting director was filled quickly. Ed Deck, a former CBA player with no scouting experience, was hired on a four-year contract at $350,000 per year. Deck has been working as a freelance scout in international markets for many years. We are putting more emphasis on international scouting in our organization, making Ed Deck a perfect fit. I expect to see our international complex filled with quality prospects by the end of his contract. Deck favors ability, which is a new perspective for our organization.


Task 2: Make decision to exercise or decline team options

There were no team options to exercise.


Task 3: Offer arbitration (or not) to potential free agents

There are no major-league free agents this year.


Task 4: Make offers to potential minor league free agents

There are 9 potential minor league free agents. Most of them are non-prospects and I made an immediate offer to only one: LF Doug Pope (.250/.310/.364 at AAA). The rest need to go in order to make room for real prospects. There is nothing to see here. Move along now.


Task 5: Submit arbitration offers to eligible players or “no-tender” them

There are a whopping twelve players eligible for arbitration! This could take a while.

SP Alec Potvin is estimated at $9 million in his final year of eligibility. I plan to work on a contract extension with him as soon as I can make the budget room available.

1B Jose Martinez is eligible for the first time and estimated at $7 million. I won’t take chances with him. I want to reach agreement on a one year contract (at least) before the hearing takes place. If I can’t sign him, I will offer $7.5M in arbitration.

CF Joe Gregory has been estimated at $5M. Wow, the price of .263/.292/.369 is pretty steep these days. Still, right-handed outfielders that can play all three positions are not all that common. I almost have to offer the estimate and see what happens.

1B/3B Frank Carson kills right-handed pitching, but he was only average (.250) as a pinch-hitter last year. He plays first base exceptionally well and third base adequately. His $4.2M estimate is high, but I don’t intend to let him walk.

RF Brian Ferguson is estimated at $3.8M and I got burned by offering him the estimate of $3M last year. I will offer $4M, but he is another candidate to be traded.

2B Lance Morrison has a $3.8M estimate and he really is in my plans. I raised the offer to $4M because I don’t want to lose any cases this year.

INF Mariano Ramirez gets an offer at the $3.2M estimate, but it is a temporary offer. He won’t go to arbitration, or spring training, with us. He is too expensive to sit at AAA.

SP Chao Yang is estimated at $3M and that seems pretty reasonable. I may try to sign him to a one year (or longer) contract as well.

CL Daniel Carlson was estimated at $2.8M and I bumped the offer up to $3M. That’s still pretty cheap for a closer with a 0.91 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 20/22 saves.

SP Dan Gregory has a $2M estimate but he is receiving a placeholder offer from us. If he is not traded, I will withdraw the offer and let him walk rather than pay $2M for him.

MR Bruce Irvine is over-priced at $1.6M but I need to keep him until I identify a better left-handed specialist. He has limited trade value but might be good as a throw-in.

MR Burt Newell has an $800K estimate. I might as well pay the ante to see one more season even though he is injured and won’t pitch before mid-season.

The trade assets are clearly identified, so it is time to go to work. The early bird gets the power hitter.

[Orcin]

November 3, 2017 (BNN)

Subject: Longoria to Washington for Harris

There was some serious wheeling and dealing today in Louisville and Washington. A major deal has been completed that will send 30-year-old starting pitcher Francisco Longoria, 29-year-old pitcher Dan Gregory and 27-year-old third baseman Mariano Ramírez to the Admirals in return for the Patriot League HR & RBI leader, 25-year-old left fielder Ed Harris.

It had been rumored that both clubs were looking to deal. Most baseball analysts think it is a good deal for both clubs. Washington was loaded with bats and in need of pitching, while Louisville struggled to score runs last season.

His career totals show Longoria has 123 victories and 94 defeats with a 3.49 ERA. He is expected to upgrade a rotation that was 13th in the Patriot League last season. Ramirez is expected to start at second base or replace free agent Ruben Luna at third base if the Admirals cannot reach a deal to keep their star hitter in town.

Harris has 638 career hits with a .295 batting average and 113 home runs in four major league seasons. Harris had a stat line of .320/.379/.578 in 2017, with 39 home runs and 132 RBIs to lead the Patriot League in both categories. Harris has three years left on his contract worth $29 million. The final year is a player option at $10.5 million.

The deal leaves SS Luis Vargas as Louisville’s highest-paid player with a salary of $10.2 million. A local barber predicted that Vargas would only have one more season with the team since Orcin has a habit of dumping his highest salary each November.

[Jabez54]

That is one sweet deal - ALL Around ... good eye, mate ... very fair in both ends ...

[blazertaz13]

Once again the great Orcin is out teaching his many followers the anatomy of deal. Thanks for the education. :-)

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

[Orcin]

2017 CBA Post-Season Awards

Most Valuable Player:
Patriot – CF Pancho Moreira, Washington Admirals (.319/.364/.549, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 58 SB)
Federal – 1B Arnie Boyd, Los Angeles Vipers (.305/.413/.694, 67 HR, 139 RBI)

Best Pitcher:
Patriot – SP Keith Wilson, Orlando Sharks (19-9, 2.98 ERA, 206 K’s)
Federal – CL Juan Fuentes, Salt Lake City Bees (10-2, 2.91 ERA, 54 SV)

Rookie of the Year:
Patriot – 2B Alex Cortez, Washington Admirals (.322/.347/.585, 35 HR, 126 RBI)
Federal – LF Eric Burt, Salt Lake City Bees (.299/.366/.650, 21 HR, 76 RBI)

Manager of the Year:
Patriot – Steve Vinson, Washington Admirals (93-69, CBA Champion)
Federal – Vincent Lee, Salt Lake City Bees (104-58, FL Champion)

Gold Glove:
3B Phil Gillespie, Louisville Colonels (his 3rd consecutive GG award)


Off-Season Center

11/11/2017: Louisville SP Alec Potvin signed a 4-year contract extension worth $40M. The fourth and final year is a team option for $12M with a $1.5M buyout.

11/15/2017: Louisville avoided arbitration with 2B Lance Morrison, signing him to a 2-year contract worth $7M.

11/16/2017: World champion Washington re-signed star catcher Dave Stewart for 2 years at $16M/year, preventing him from leaving the team as a free agent.

11/17/2017: Milwaukee cleared some budget room, trading SP Antonio Gutierrez to Sacramento for a prospect. I had been trying to trade with Milwaukee for a different starting pitcher, but I could not complete a deal because of their budget shortfall. This might open the door for more discussions.

[dynaboyj]

Originally Posted by Orcin

2017 CBA Post-Season Awards

Most Valuable Player:
Patriot – CF Pancho Moreira, Washington Generals (.319/.364/.549, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 58 SB)
Federal – 1B Arnie Boyd, Los Angeles Vipers (.305/.413/.694, 67 HR, 139 RBI)

Best Pitcher:
Patriot – SP Keith Wilson, Orlando Sharks (19-9, 2.98 ERA, 206 K’s)
Federal – CL Juan Fuentes, Salt Lake City Bees (10-2, 2.91 ERA, 54 SV)

Rookie of the Year:
Patriot – 2B Alex Cortez, Washington Generals (.322/.347/.585, 35 HR, 126 RBI)
Federal – LF Eric Burt, Salt Lake City Bees (.299/.366/.650, 21 HR, 76 RBI)

Manager of the Year:
Patriot – Steve Vinson, Washington Generals (93-69, CBA Champion)
Federal – Vincent Lee, Salt Lake City Bees (104-58, FL Champion)

Waitwaitwaitwait. When did this name change happen?

[Westheim]

Maybe the championship got them some very strange sort of promotion.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by dynaboyj

Waitwaitwaitwait. When did this name change happen?

Oops. Typo.

Actually, I do this a lot. I should probably just change the name. I had another name in mind for Charleston, but I couldn't find a logo I liked. I might have to look harder. Too late for next season though.

[Sal, The Barber]

Originally Posted by Orcin

November 3, 2017
A local barber predicted that Vargas would only have one more season with the team since Orcin has a habit of dumping his highest salary each November.

Mr. Orcin,

Are you visiting another barber in town? Sal does not remember saying this. Sal is behind all your moves; he especially likes this latest trade. "Sheriff" Ed Harris. That's what they called Dave Harris back in Sal's heyday. Sal is sure they are related. But, Sal digresses. Are you visiting another barber, or did Sal say this during one of his "episodes"?

Sal must add his two cents (that is all he can afford). The best nickname for Charleston is the "Charlies."

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Are you visiting another barber, or did Sal say this during one of his "episodes"?

Well, technically BNN wrote that comment, so we don't know where they get their hair cut. Of course, they would be foolish to go anywhere else.

[Orcin]

November 18, 2017 (BNN)

Subject: CBA Arbitration Hearings

Who will win… the players or the owners? That age-old question comes to a head again today as Continental Baseball Association commences salary arbitration hearings. Players who have been unable to secure a new contract with their clubs will soon learn whether their salary claims will be accepted or rejected by the independent arbitrators. There will undoubtedly be a mix of happy and sad faces when the final decisions are announced.

Salary Arbitration Decisions in Favor of the Louisville Colonels:
• CF Joe Gregory was awarded $5,000,000. The player demanded $6,237,500.
• 1B Frank Carson was awarded $4,200,000. The player demanded $5,250,000.
• RF Brian Ferguson was awarded $4,000,000. The player demanded $4,636,000.
• SP Chao Yang was awarded $3,000,000. The player demanded $3,750,000.
• MR Bruce Irvine was awarded $1,500,000. The player demanded $2,000,000.
• MR Burt Newell was awarded $800,000. The player demanded $1,125,000.

Salary Arbitration Decisions Against the Louisville Colonels:
• 1B Jose Martinez was awarded $7,500,000. The team had offered $7,500,000 (I guess ties go to the player).
• CL Daniel Carlson was awarded $3,325,000. The team had offered $3,000,000.

Of the original 12 possible cases, 2 were settled by negotiated contract extensions (Potvin and Morrison) and 2 players were traded (Dan Gregory and Ramirez).


Free Agent Update: Washington avoided losing star 3B Ruben Luna to free agency by signing him to a 4-year contract worth $68M. They still stand to lose Jason Harmon.

[Orcin]

November 21, 2017 (BNN)

Subject: Free Agents File

Today marks the beginning of Continental Baseball Association's free agent filing period. With it comes the uncertainty of an offseason filled with the potential for blockbuster signings, off-the-wall trades and a mad scramble to improve your club before you get left out in the cold. The biggest names on this year's market include:

• 1B Ramon Martinez, ex-SEA, 5*/36/L, 9x AS, career .311/.415/.537, $23Mx5
• RF Tom Pope, ex-DET, 2.5*/28/S, 2x AS, career .327/.371/.535, $22Mx7
• CF Javier Vega, ex-SLC, 4*/26/L, 2x AS, career .276/.356/.392 w/394SB, $22Mx7
• LF Luis Soto, ex-HOU, 4.5*/36/L, 9x AS, career .308/.418/.454 w/459 SB, $22Mx6
• SP Felix Delgado, ex-PVD, 4*/34/R, 6x AS, BP(2009), career 207-127 w/3.25 ERA, $21Mx6
• SP Joel Martin, ex-LA, 4*/29/R, 1x AS, career 94-67 w/3.51 ERA, $21Mx6
• SP Greg Nance, ex-CIN, 4.5*/27/R, 1x AS, career 76-61 w/3.41 ERA, $20Mx8
• RF Jason Harmon, ex-WAS, 4*/31/R, 0x AS, career .302/.369/.429, $20Mx8
• 1B Hector Baca, ex-CHS, 5*/35/L, 6x AS, MVP(2008,2014), career .324/.397/.570, $19Mx5
• CL Juan Fuentes, ex-SLC, 4.5*/28/R, 3x AS, career 43-48 w/3.20 ERA, 193 SV, $16Mx5
• RF Bertoldo Manacorda, none, 4.5*/26/R, int’l free agent from Venezuela, $18M x6
• C Jose Apina, ex-DAL, 4.5*/30/R, 0x AS, career .244/.310/.422, $11Mx9

Legend: position, name, former team, overall rating / age as of April next year / handedness, # all-star selections, awards (if any), career stats, salary desire


I list Apina only because he is the best catcher on the market. The scary thing is that he would be a serious upgrade over my current catchers.

Apina’s stat line last season was .258/.339/.464 with 28 HR and 80 RBI. He is pretty good defensively, very durable, and a leader. I want to pursue him but my owner will not approve a contract offer of more than one year due to year 2+ salary commitments. I will need to make a trade to clear long-term salary. It might be easier just to trade salary for a catcher, but I like Apina.

[Orcin]

November 21, 2017

Subject: Budget and Off-Season Planning

Eligible players filed for free agency today and arbitration is also out of the way, so this is my first look at a clean budget picture for 2018. I typically assume a full 40-man roster on major league contracts to be conservative. Using that assumption and adding $25M for expenses, total salaries are $9M under the budget set by owner Gordon Cooper.

However, my economizer owner will not allow any contracts beyond this season. Next year is projected to be slightly over budget. It would require more than a small salary to compensate for signing the free agent catcher (Apina). Two salaries could combine to do it, or one big one.

If I were to trade one big salary, it has to be 1B Jose Martinez. However, even though I have a potential and apparently ready replacement behind him, Martinez is my best player so he is off the table. McConnell is also a candidate, but he is injured and can’t be traded.

My choice for the two combined will be Frank Carson and Brian Ferguson. Those are the players that are easiest to replace. It may require including a couple of prospects to entice a team to take on those salaries.

If I fail to land Apina after clearing salary space, I could still package the prospects and some of those players for a catcher that is already under contract. The contract would have to be reasonable and the catcher would have to be at least as good as Apina.

Meanwhile, I need to prepare for the Rule 5 draft, and I stand to lose some players if I cannot protect them. There will be some roster movement before the end of this month, even if I cannot pull off a trade.

[Orcin]

November 22, 2017 (BNN)

Subject: Colonels Cleaning House

The Denver Miners capitalized on an apparent budget crisis to nab two starting major league players, a quality reliever, and a good defensive catcher from the Louisville Colonels in return for nothing more than two prospects.

The trade sends Louisville's 28-year-old right fielder Brian Ferguson and 29-year-old third baseman Frank Carson to the Miners, along with 27-year-old left-handed reliever Bruce Irvine and 23-year-old minor league catcher Lee Hargrove. In his career Carson has a .274 batting average, 45 home runs and 236 RBIs. Ferguson has a career batting mark of .256 with 45 home runs and 205 RBIs.

Louisville will receive 18-year-old minor league shortstop António Larez and 20-year-old minor league closer Fernando Sosa from Denver. Larez is the #20 prospect in the CBA. He will report to Evansville (Class A) for next season. Sosa, a left-hander, had a good season at Fort Collins (A) in 2017 where he recorded 36 saves. GM Otto Orcin said, “Larez was the key to the deal for us. We need to develop a shortstop to replace Luis Vargas when he retires someday far in the future.”

Both GMs seemed relieved that the deal had been completed with one stating, "We had an internal deadline to get it done." The players are expected to report to their new teams tomorrow.


Off-Season Center

11/23/2017: New York traded 27 y/o CF Dennis Bennett to Washington for 29 y/o 2B Tokimasa Goto (80G, .260/.297/.459).

11/29/2017: Salt Lake City re-signed CL Juan Fuentes for 2 years at $13M /year. They dodged a big bullet there. Losing Fuentes would have really hurt them.

11/29/2017: Indianapolis signed 29/ y/o injury-prone SS/3B Michael Bailey, formerly with San Francisco, to a 6-year contract worth $79M. Bailey’s career stat line of .282/.313/.401 doesn’t seem to justify that contract, but this is how the Indians operate.

11/30/2017: Houston signed veteran SP Felix Delgado to a 2-year deal worth $36M. The Stars pitching just keeps getting tougher. It was already #2 in the league.

Free Agent Update: With my budget now open, I made an offer to free agent catcher Jose Apina of 6 years, $60M. Apina came back after a few days and said I would have to increase the money to beat the competition.

[Orcin]

December 1, 2017

Subject: Rule 5 Draft

Today, teams will again participate in the Rule 5 draft, sifting through talents that may otherwise have little or no opportunity to play. Chosen candidates must be kept on the active roster all season or be offered back to their original teams. Uncertainty is coupled with the hopes of making a difference in expanded roles in Continental Baseball Association.

The following moves were made in advance of the draft:
• C Jon Howard was added to the 40-man roster, and C John Parks was waived (claimed by L.A.).
• SS Jimmy Quinn was added to the 40-man roster.
• MR Billy Wilson was added to the 40-man roster, and MR Shusaku Kouki was waived (cleared).

We did not take anyone in the draft. We did not lose anyone in the draft.


Off-Season Center (continued)

12/03/2016: Indianapolis upped the ante in our division by signing former Salt Lake City CF Javier Vega to a 5-year contract worth $91M. They are spending almost nothing on scouting and player development, but it is hard to compete with them in free agency.

12/04/2017: We have been informed by the agent for catcher Jose Apina that he likes our latest 6-year offer with escalating salaries of $9M, $9M, $11M, $11M, $12.5M, and a final year team option at $12.5M with a $1.5M buyout. I hope $65M over 6 years will get it done, because I am unable to further increase the year 2 amount per my owner.

12/05/2017: Houston signed 34 y/o RF Carl Dixon for two years at $18M/year. Dixon can still hit, but his injury history is labeled as “wrecked”. Indianapolis did well to dump him and sign Vega with the money.

12/06/2017: Philadelphia signed former Detroit closer Clyde Ellis for 2 years at $12M/year. He has recorded 192 saves over the past five seasons with a 2.09 ERA.

12/08/2017: Seattle re-signed 37 y/o 1B Ramon Martinez for 3 years at $20M/year. He shows no sign of slowing down with OPS of .925 over the past two years.

12/08/2017: Charlotte agreed to terms with former Sacramento SP Phil Hill on a 5-year contract worth $66M. The 32 y/o Hill missed most of last season with a torn labrum. He was 15-8 with a 2.75 ERA in 2016, his best season.

12/10/2017: Louisville announced the signing of 29-year-old catcher Jose Apina to a 6-year contract worth $65M. The former Dallas catcher will bring power and defense to a position that the Colonels have struggled to man effectively since Duncan Bland retired. Fan reaction to the signing was positive with the fan interest index soaring to 98.

Several prominent free agents are still on the board heading to the Winter Meetings:
• SP Joel Martin, ex-LA, 4*/29/R, 1x AS, career 94-67 w/3.51 ERA, $22Mx6
• RF Tom Pope, ex-DET, 2.5*/28/S, 2x AS, career .327/.371/.535, $22Mx7
• LF Luis Soto, ex-HOU, 4.5*/36/L, 9x AS, career .308/.418/.454 w/459 SB, $22Mx5
• 1B Hector Baca, ex-CHS, 5*/35/L, 6x AS, career .324/.397/.570, $20Mx5
• SP Greg Nance, ex-CIN, 4.5*/27/R, 1x AS, career 76-61 w/3.41 ERA, $20Mx8
• RF Jason Harmon, ex-WAS, 4*/31/R, 0x AS, career .302/.369/.429, $20Mx8
• RF Bertoldo Manacorda, none, 4.5*/26/R, int’l free agent from Venezuela, $18M x6

Louisville is no longer a player in this segment of the free agent market after signing Apina. However, we are actively seeking upgrades via one-year free agents and trades.

[Orcin]

December 11, 2017

Subject: Winter Meetings Begin

With the winter meetings beginning today, Continental Baseball Association clubs embark on a three-day, trade-laced, rumor-saturated marathon of meet-and-greet frivolity. The light atmosphere, almost mocking in its falseness, is a stark reminder of the importance of these meetings. Show your hand and you will be burned by sparks from the inferno known as hot stove baseball. Keep too tight-lipped and you could be left out in the cold. Be wise, for championships might not be won in the offseason, but they are surely lost then!

**********

I want to add a quality starting pitcher to the rotation. I have assembled a shortlist of targeted pitchers. I contacted teams, starting with the best pitcher on my list.

• Phoenix SP Juan Munoz, age 24, 6’0” 235#, throws R, 5-star, $6.5M via arb.

Phoenix will trade Munoz (12-10, 3.41 ERA) for CL Daniel Carlson, 2B Paco Morales, CF Shawn Tanner, C Ryan Edwards, and $2M in cash. That’s quite a haul for them, but Munoz is described by new scout Ed Deck as “Hall of Fame caliber”. He would be under club control for two more seasons, but he will eventually be extremely expensive. I don’t like giving up Carlson, and they won’t do the deal without him.

• Milwaukee SP Fletcher Holmes, age 25, 6’3”, 220#, throws R, 4-star, $2.4M via arb.

Milwaukee will trade Holmes (9-7, 3.34 ERA) for Morales, Tanner, and two AA starting pitchers if I include $3.5M cash in the deal. Deck says that Holmes is “top-of-the-rotation material and at worst will be a solid #2 starter”. He is under club control for two more years. Holmes missed the entire 2016 season with a torn labrum, but he showed no ill effects last year and is rated “normal” for injuries. We got a good look at the post-injury Holmes when he beat us in the final game of the 2017 regular season. Fewer important assets leave the organization in this trade compared to Munoz (cash can be replaced).

• Salt Lake City SP Alfred Sawyer (age 26, 6’0” 215#, throws R, 4-star, $5.5M via arb.)

Salt Lake City will trade Sawyer (17-9, 4.11 ERA) for Morales, Tanner and AAA catcher Jon Howard (no cash). The Bees really want a catcher in the deal: Edwards, Howard or prospect Darryl Fletcher. I consider Howard the weakest of the three, but I really don’t want to part with any of them yet. Sawyer is under club control for one more season. Deck says Sawyer is a “strong #3 in the rotation”. He looks a lot like Graves to me, i.e. big win total because he was on a great team. Holmes was over .500 on a lousy team.

• Indianapolis SP Valentin Rodriguez (age 27, 6’1” 195#, throws R, 3-star, $ see below)

Rodriguez (15-7, 3.12 ERA) has a four-year contract with rapidly-escalating salaries of $2.8M, $5.1M, $7.9M, and a $9.5M player option in 2021. Indianapolis will trade Rodriguez and $2.5M in cash for Morales, Tanner, and one of the AA pitchers (fragile Jose Leon). Deck says Rodriguez is a “streaky guy who needs to be more consistent”. That doesn’t sound good to me. His 57% career quality start ratio confirms Deck’s assessment, although 2017 was his best season at 69%. Holmes was 72% last year.

• Baltimore SP Lou Armstrong (age 24, 6’3” 220#, throws R, 2.5-star, $ minimum)

Baltimore wants Morales and LF Hector Castro. They have no interest in Tanner. I am not ready to give up Castro. Armstrong is two years away from arbitration. Deck says he is a “back-end starter at best”. I am looking to get a more proven pitcher for Morales.

**********

Obviously, there are far more pitchers that could make this list, but these five represent each available category well: potential ace, strong #2, solid mid-rotation, proven without upside, cheap back-end with upside.

Munoz is the best pitcher in the group, but I don’t really want to pay for an ace. If he has the type of year that can be anticipated, his arbitration award will break my budget. He will be difficult to sign to a long-term deal for anything less than Longoria money.

I really want a pitcher that could slide in comfortably behind Potvin and Bowles, but still extremely reliable and capable of throwing a big game down the stretch and/or in the playoffs. Ideally, he would be a guy that could go in a game 7 without concern. Holmes and Sawyer both fit that description. Sawyer is more proven but Holmes seems to have more upside (he was the 4th pick overall in the 2014 draft). Holmes is also significantly cheaper in terms of salary right now, and I would rather give up two fragile AA pitchers and cash as opposed to a good young catcher.

Why am I willing to part with Morales and Tanner? I don’t really have a choice if I want to upgrade the rotation. It takes a great prospect to attract a quality starting pitcher, and Morales is most replaceable of my attractive assets. Rich Seaman is possibly better and certainly more versatile than Morales. I don’t have spots for both of them plus Morrison. Tanner is now expendable with the addition of Ed Harris to go with Castro, Bunney, and Bustamante – all of whom hit from the left side. Tanner is fragile, out of options, and will be eligible for a big arbitration award next year.

I will work a little harder to improve the deal with Milwaukee, but I intend to get it done.

[Orcin]

December 11, 2017 (BNN)

Subject: Colonels Acquire SP Holmes from Eagles

The Louisville Colonels and Milwaukee Eagles agreed to swap a combination of star players and top prospects today with the Eagles sending 25-year-old starting pitcher Fletcher Holmes and 20-year-old minor league first baseman Sergio Chávez to the Colonels for 22-year-old second baseman Paco Morales, 26-year-old center fielder Shawn Tanner, 22-year-old minor league starting pitcher José León, 23-year-old minor league starting pitcher Hyde Nairn and $3,500,000 in cash.

"The move we made today will improve our team immediately," the Milwaukee general manager said. "I'm excited about what this move will do for our ball club and I know the fans will like what they see on the field." Louisville GM Otto Orcin said, “We needed to replace Longoria, and Holmes gives us a solid starter to go with Potvin and Bowles at the top of our rotation.”

During his career Tanner has compiled a .249 batting average and collected 137 hits, 31 home runs and 90 RBIs. Morales has only played briefly in the majors but shows a lot of potential.

The 25-year-old Holmes has 75 appearances in his career, including 29 starts. He has thrown 264 innings with 198 strikeouts. His won-lost record is 12-12 with a 3.99 ERA. Chavez is a right-handed slugger with a stat line of .348/.419/.713 in 45 games at AAA last season.

The Colonels also released some bad news today. CF Bryan McConnell suffered a setback in his recovery from a broken bone in the elbow. According to the doctors, treatment was progressing well until yesterday, when McConnell experienced quite a bit of pain during a workout. Further examination revealed he had caused more damage and would now be disabled for at least another two months. He is still expected to be ready for spring training.

[Orcin]

Off-Season Center (continued)

12/12/2017: Louisville and Dallas traded AAA players to balance their rosters, with the Colonels sending outfielder Roberto Lopez to the Rattlers for infielder Clint Murphy.

12/13/2017: Pittsburgh acquired 26 y/o 1B Kevin Campbell from Los Angeles for RF Melvin Hicks. Campbell is a super prospect that was stuck behind MVP Arnie Boyd. This has the potential to be a huge deal. The entire CBA was after Campbell, and the Vipers did not get enough for him in my opinion.

12/14/2017: Detroit signed 36 y/o LF Luis Soto to a 3-year contract worth $55M. Soto can still hit when healthy.

12/18/2017: Boston signed star CF Ed Marks away from Detroit for $54M over 3 years.

12/19/2017: Charleston signed 33 y/o SP Jason Gray for 4 years, $40M. He is a steady left-hander with a pretty decent 105-93, 3.74 career record. He stays healthy, keeps the ball in the yard, and turns in around 200 innings every season. I like the guy but maybe not at $10M/year.

12/19/2017: Fans in Louisville were extremely pleased today when the team announced that 28-year-old 1B Jose Martinez signed a 3-year contract extension worth $30 million. Martinez received a contract valued at $7.5 million for 2018 via arbitration in November. The new extension begins in 2019 and avoids future arbitration hearings for the parties.

12/23/2017: Merry Christmas! Pittsburgh signed SP Greg Nance to a 7-year contract worth a whopping $175 million! The largest contract in CBA history sent shock waves across the landscape. Will $25M salaries be the new norm for star pitchers? Pittsburgh 2B Gerald Davis is the only player with a larger annual salary ($26.6M for 3 years). The Warriors are clearly serious about contending this season.

12/23/2017: Orlando signed 34 y/o 2B/SS Wayne Baker for 2 years at $35M. Baker is a solid veteran player that will bring leadership to the club, but he is over-priced.

12/23/2017: Orlando also signed international free agent outfielder Bertoldo Manacorda to a 4-year contract worth $60M. That’s a real dice roll. Deck says that the unproven Venezuelan doesn’t have enough power to justify that salary as a corner outfielder.

12/30/2017: Chicago gave their pitching a boost by signing former L.A. ace SP Joel Martin to a 5-year contract worth $110M. The 29 y/o Martin missed the playoffs with a back injury last season, but he is one of the best assuming a full recovery.

[Orcin]

January 1, 2018

Management Carousel Update
The following CBA teams have personnel changes for this upcoming season.

Federal League:
Houston Stars (88-74, 5th): BC Jorge Munoz replaces MGR Bruce Hensley
San Diego Stallions (76-86, 8th): BC Pat Graham replaces MGR Jack Gibson
San Francisco Seals (74-88, 9th): former (fired 2016) LA GM Bob Barrett replaces GM Stu Spencer; former PHX MGR Oliver Miranda replaces MGR Matt Bader
Phoenix Coyotes (73-89, 10th): former CHS MGR Howard Mick replaces MGR Oliver Miranda
Sacramento Outlaws (69-93, 14th): former (fired 2016) CHS GM Vincent Johnson replaces GM Eric Allen, BC David Fowler replaces MGR John Blake
Chicago Cougars (66-96, 15th): former SF MGR Matt Bader replaces MGR Al Emerson

Patriot League:
Orlando Sharks (92-70, 3rd): former CLE GM Terence Anderson replaces GM Millard Lawrence (retired)
Providence Grays (86-76, 4th): former SF GM Stu Spencer replaces GM Javier Ortiz (retired)
Cleveland Rockers (85-77, 5th): former NY GM Buck Welch replaces GM Terence Anderson; former HOU MGR Bruce Hensley replaces MGR Jim Vandenberg
Detroit Titans (84-78, 8th): BC Luis Martinez replaces MGR Tommy Evans (retired)
Charleston Generals (83-79, 10th): BC Howard Davis replaces MGR Howard Mick
New York Monarchs (82-80, 11th): former SAC GM Eric Allen replaces GM Buck Welch


Retired Players
Three familiar names on this year’s list… LF Dennis Morgan, SP Ray Alexander, and SP Will Spencer.


Remaining Big-Name Free Agents
• RF Tom Pope, ex-DET, 2.5*/28/S, 2x AS, career .327/.371/.535, $22Mx7 (Interested: WAS)
• RF Jason Harmon, ex-WAS, 4*/31/R, 0x AS, career .302/.369/.429, $20Mx8
• 1B Hector Baca, ex-CHS, 5*/35/L, 6x AS, career .324/.397/.570, $19Mx5
• CF Juan Moran, ex-CLE, 2*/34/L, 3x AS, career .263/.342/.498 w/351 HR, $18Mx5

Veteran readers may remember Moran. I traded him to Cleveland 12 seasons ago for a young outfielder named Ron Hartman. Years of regret followed.