The 2023 NFL Season Thread

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by David Watts

So what's your thoughts on how the Chiefs vs Bills game ended? Seeing a lot of folks whining about the call.

Only ones I saw complaining about the play itself are the Chiefs, who, frankly, really are embarrassing themselves. What I've seen is others using the play as an opportunity to complain about the NFL's refs as a whole for a season of inconsistency & point blank misses.

[Ragnar]

Cobra, I'm going to default to you because I no longer watch college football. Haven't since my mid 20s. If what you're saying is true, it's alarming. But to be honest, I don't mind the NFL the way it is today in regard to QBs. It reminds me of the 70s and 80s where the QB wasn't everything. Makes the game interesting.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by David Watts

So what's your thoughts on how the Chiefs vs Bills game ended? Seeing a lot of folks whining about the call.

Here's my opinion and I've mentioned it before. The rules state 7 players on the offense must be on the LOS. The players at the end of the line on each side must be on the LOS. The Defense has no such requirement.

Toney was on the LOS. He wasn't over. Neutral zone infractions are any defensive player even with or over the LOS at the snap. It doesn't mention offense at all. I don't know how you can justify telling the offense they have to be on the LOS, then flag them for being on the LOS. Nowhere in the rulebook does it state offensive players must be behind the LOS.

[pilight]

Colleges have never prepared QBs for the NFL. The expectation was that QBs would sit on the bench and learn for the first year or more. Nowadays teams draft QBs too high and throw them into the fire immediately whether they're ready or not (usually not).

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by pilight

Colleges have never prepared QBs for the NFL. The expectation was that QBs would sit on the bench and learn for the first year or more. Nowadays teams draft QBs too high and throw them into the fire immediately whether they're ready or not (usually not).

You could better judge QB's in the past since they ran conventional offenses. Most of these schools run video game offenses now.

[pilight]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

You could better judge QB's in the past since they ran conventional offenses. Most of these schools run video game offenses now.

Yeah, and they were almost always deemed not ready to start right away. Even John Elway, considered the most pro-ready QB prospect ever at the time, sat half a season before moving into the lineup. Todays QBs are no more prepared than the guys back then but teams look at the numbers and can't wait to overdraft them and plug them in right away, with predictably disastrous results. Occasionally one will overcome it and prosper but most of the times their confidence gets shot and they are reduced to journeymen at best.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by pilight

Yeah, and they were almost always deemed not ready to start right away. Even John Elway, considered the most pro-ready QB prospect ever at the time, sat half a season before moving into the lineup. Todays QBs are no more prepared than the guys back then but teams look at the numbers and can't wait to overdraft them and plug them in right away, with predictably disastrous results. Occasionally one will overcome it and prosper but most of the times their confidence gets shot and they are reduced to journeymen at best.

1. But don't you think that the change in how they handle rooks could be due to the fact the vets suck more than they used to?
2. There were also 28 teams Elway's rookie year. Now 32. That dilutes the pool.
3. The old way of doing things does not equate the better way of doing things. I personally don't subscribe to one way or the other. You make a decision based on the player. Not based on what everybody else is doing.
4. My critique of colleges was not to say I expected rookies to come in & start right away. My critique is to say the way they play in college does not prepare them as well and doesn't give scouting a clearer picture of the QB's ability at the pro level.

Rookies are expected to struggle. They are also expected to progress. Whether they sit or play early. The QB's we see coming in now that are drafted high aren't doing so.
2016 - Goff, Wentz, Lynch, Hackenburg, Brissett, Kessler
2017 - Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Kizer, Webb, Beathard
2018 - Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Rudolph
2019 - Murray, D.Jones, Haskins, Lock, Grier
2020 - Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Hurts.
2021 - Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, M.Jones, Trask, Mond, Mills,
2022 - Pickett, Willis, Corrall, Ridder

Those are the 40 QB's taken in the 1st 3 rds of the last 7 drafts prior to this one. I count only 16 w/the team that drafted them. I count 17 that are or would be starting if not for injury. 2020 has to be counted, but I think we can reasonably agree it is the exception. So I don't think the problem is early expectations. Some of them started from the get go. Some sat. Some still playing. Some are out of the NFL already.

There is no apparent formula to how you take a QB from draftee to established starter. But there does seem to be a difficulty in identifying who can actually play from their college game tape.

[pilight]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

There is no apparent formula to how you take a QB from draftee to established starter. But there does seem to be a difficulty in identifying who can actually play from their college game tape.

Show us some drafts from when you think things were better. My guess is you'll see fewer early picks spent on QBs and a similar success/failure ratio.

[thehef]

As a Dolphins fan, there have been times this season where I've thought "maybe I'm wrong about Tua and he really is on his way to being an elite level QB." Tonight - especially on that last, futile drive - was a reminder that Tua is just not very good. His best moments are when he's able to quickly get the ball to his primary receivers (who are pretty talented bunch).

True that most QB's are not at their best when they face pressure, but the key to forcing Tua into some really poor decisions is to get pressure on him. When that happens, he is exposed as an ordinary-at-best QB.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by pilight

Show us some drafts from when you think things were better. My guess is you'll see fewer early picks spent on QBs and a similar success/failure ratio.

I don't know if you will find a better success rate or worse in a particular draft. I'm theorizing the reason why the NFL QB pool is so poor is because of the reasons I've already outlined.

Do you think the number of quality QB's today is the same as 20-25 years ago? Greater? Less?

[pilight]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Do you think the number of quality QB's today is the same as 20-25 years ago? Greater? Less?

About the same. There were plenty of bad QBs playing then. There are always ebbs and flows to the talent. 20 years ago the thoroughly mediocre Jake Delhomme and his 19/16 TD/INT ratio was a Super Bowl QB and considered a quality starter.

[mytreds]

DeVito looked pretty good tonight. Needs to learn how to slide though.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by mytreds

DeVito looked pretty good tonight. Needs to learn how to slide though.

He did. But you can tell the game is moving a little too fast for him. Hopefully he'll catch up. He reminds me of a young Tony Romo when he first got his start.

Sometimes QBs will break out of the pocket when there is no one to throw to. Other times they break the pocket because they need more time due to the game moving too fast. Give him time. He'll catch up.

[Ragnar]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

I don't know if you will find a better success rate or worse in a particular draft. I'm theorizing the reason why the NFL QB pool is so poor is because of the reasons I've already outlined.

Do you think the number of quality QB's today is the same as 20-25 years ago? Greater? Less?

In my opinion, and I'm just going by recent drafts over the last decade, it seems like NFL teams are having a harder time recognizing good QBs. It's always been difficult, but now it seems like it's all over the place.

[thehef]

I'm thinking that the QB's of today would stack up pretty well against pretty much any other era.

There's probably little argument that the following QB's are either at an elite level or well on their way: Mahomes, L Jackson, Allen, Lawrence, Burrow, Herbert, Stroud, Purdy... A couple of those guys could be said to be having an "off" year or have had injuries this season... I personally would not put Tua in that group but most would... In addition, R Wilson, Rodgers, Stafford all may have a some high-level seasons left...

Other vets who may not be elite but most would consider them pretty good: Dak, Cousins, Hurts, Watson, Murray...

Then there are several young QB's where the jury is still out, but it's a good bet that at least of couple of them will eventually be solid QB's, perhaps even elite, while surely at least half of them will sputter out or end up as QB2's: Levis, Howell, Fields, Pickett, Richardson, Love, Ridder, Young, maybe DeVito...

Who does that leave? A few guys who will never be elite but who - for the most part - are not a bad representation if they make up the "mediocre" class of NLF QB's: Geno, Goff, Mayfield, Carr, M Jones, D Jones, Garopollo, Dobbs (late bloomer?)...

[Cobra Mgr]

So I decided to do a side by side comparison of 2003's starters to 2023's. It's not a perfect way of comparing the entire group of QB's, but it was a way to give me some perspective. It does look like the difference in quality is not as large as I at 1st believed. I think 2003 had a stronger top & bottom. But 2023 has a better middle. It is just that it is a rather large middle. I would put only Mahomes among 2003's best (Manning, Brady, Favre). '23 has a better quantity of "B+" (Burrow, Herbert, Allen, Prescott, Jackson, Tua, Goff, Hurts, Lawrence, ) > (Green, McNabb, McNair, Hasselbeck, Culpepper, Johnson, Brooks). I still feel today's bottom shows there is a problem identifying &/or training QB's.

P.Manning          G.Minshew
T.Green            P.Mahomes
M.Hasselbeck       G.Smith
B.Johnson          B.Mayfield
T.Brady            M.Jones
J.Kitna            J.Burrow
A.Brooks           D.Carr
T.Maddox           K.Pickett
B.Favre            J.Love
Q.Carter           D.Prescott
D.McNabb           J.Hurts
J.Harrington       J.Goff
B.Bledsoe          J.Allen
M.Bulger           M.Stafford
J.Delhomme         B.Young
D.Culpepper        K.Cousins
S.McNair           R.Tanneyhill
K.Collins          D.Jones
B.Leftwich         T.Lawrence
J.Garcia           B.Purdy
J.Blake            A.Murray
P.Ramsey           S.Howell
J.Fieldler         T.Tagovailoa
D.Brees            J.Herbert
C.Pennington       G.Wilson
K.Boller           L.Jackson
K.Holcomb/T.Couch  D.Watson
R.Mirer            J.Garoppolo
D.Johnson          D.Ridder
K.Stewart          J.Fields
J.Plummer          R.Wilson
                   CJ Stroud

[Cobra Mgr]

Justin Herbert out for 2023.

[Cobra Mgr]

Al Michaels won't call playoff games for NBC

About time he was moved aside

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by pilight

About the same. There were plenty of bad QBs playing then. There are always ebbs and flows to the talent. 20 years ago the thoroughly mediocre Jake Delhomme and his 19/16 TD/INT ratio was a Super Bowl QB and considered a quality starter.

This is reeeeeally tough. I personally think that QBs are better today and it's not even close. Like, yeah, there are mediocre QBs today and there were mediocre QBs in 2000. A mediocre player today - Justin Fields, the 22nd rated QB for example - completes around 63% of their passes, averages about 7 yards per attempt, and in Fields' case has around twice as many TDs as picks (I'm not a big fan of using that but mostly because TDs are more of a function of the team's overall offensive ability than the particular QB, but Fields gets picked off 2.4% of the time).

In 2000, there was one fewer team so I'll go... #21, Brad Johnson. He completed 63% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt... and almost doubles Fields' pick rate at 4.2%. Johnson is rated low because of the picks so I'll move up to #20 instead: Rob Johnson (no relation IIRC), who completed 57%, averaged 6.8, and had a pick rate of 2.3%. So close to Fields but Fields is still a touch better, especially if you prefer consistency to long throws.

Go back to 1990 and it's like you're in another world. I'll take #18, which is way better relative to the league than Fields is to 2023, but even so: Vinny Testaverde completed 55.6% of his passes (that would be dead last in 2023, and not particularly close either) for 7.7 YPA (okay, that's nice; guess Vinny was throwing a lot further downfield)... and a 4.9% INT rate, close to 50% worse than the worst qualifying guy in 2023, Mac Jones (who has a 3.5%). I sorted by Adjusted Yards Per Attempts, which takes into account sacks and INTs (and, to a very small extent, TDs) and Fields, just as a passer alone and not taking into account his running (except of course when he ran himself into a sack), is half a yard better than Testaverde: 5.55 to 5.01. Testaverde's 5.01 would put him in between Deshaun Watson and Sam Howell.

Yes, there have been rule changes that have influenced things, and there has also been a big, big statistical revolution in football that has moved things more towards the pass. However, I'm looking at rates here and one of the things that's come along with the statistical revolution is an extreme, extreme aversion to interceptions. Interceptions are waaaay down: even with way, way, way more passes being thrown and, of course, a whole entire extra regular season game per team, teams averaged 13 interceptions last year compared to 17 in 1990. By my eye, I just plain do not see quarterbacks make as many just flat-out stupid decisions today as they did back then, and I'm a Seahawks fan who watches Geno Smith play every week.

[pilight]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

So I decided to do a side by side comparison of 2003's starters to 2023's.

I assume the names in bold are the ones you think are better than their counterpart, in which case you're not being fair to the modern QBs. Jimmy Garoppolo is clearly superior to Rick Mirer, as is DeShaun Watson to Holcomb/Couch. I don't see Culpepper as an equal to Cousins, while Matt Hasselbeck is closer to Geno Smith than you indicate. McNabb over Hurts is also highly debatable.