September Swoon

[quizkid]

If you think that just improved cards is all that there is to improving your team then you have much to learn about PT. Sliders rule!

[99LVAces]

9-11 over the final 20 games of the season. I stand by my original claim in the first post. Pattern repeats itself again.

I really thought this might be the "forum" for an intelligent discussion regarding the patterns I have discovered in the game. But not to be.

I wish everyone the very best of luck in the game and in everything else in their lives.

[kq76]

20 games isn't going to convince anyone of anything. I'm not sure what might convince people, but 20 games definitely won't cut it. Maybe 30 games over 20 seasons?

And may I point out that .600 over 20 games is 12 wins. 12 wins vs 9 wins over 20 is next to nothing. It's one bad series. It's not like you won only 3 or even only 6 over 20. Even if you had only won 3 of 20, if it was only 1 season, it was still too few games.

The big problem here though is, you asked (in post #3) if anyone else sees this pattern, but obviously not everyone must be going through September swoons, only some teams can as for every game played there must be a winner and a loser. And if it really does happen more to you than you think it should, why do you think your team would be "targetted"? Or do you think other teams just know the secret trick to not go through a "September swoon"? I can't imagine it could be the former, it must be the latter. If you do think you're being targetted, what's your theory? Why you specifically?

What it's much more likely to be in my mind is just a bad stretch of luck, even over seasons. Think of a "September swoon" as flipping a coin and getting tails (I don't think 1 game under .500 over 20 should qualify as a swoon, but if it is to you then let's go there). So 1 season you flip a coin, it comes up tails, and you end up under .500. Next season you flip another coin, you get tails again, and you go under .500 again in September. Season 3 same thing. Season 4 same thing again! 4 seasons in a row going under .500 when you normally go .600, that's crazy, right? The odds of flipping a coin 4 times and getting the same side is 6.25%. 6.25% is crazy, right? No, it's not at all actually. Think of the situation where you have a room full of 100 people, you give them each a coin and have them flip it 4 times. After the first flip, you can expect that about 50 people will flip tails and get to keep going. After 2 you can expect you'll have 25, after 3 about 12 and after 4 about 6. It's just not crazy at all, some people, just by chance are going to have a run of bad luck and maybe it's you right now.

The fact is, humans love to see patterns in things, it's just how we're wired. We'll see a pattern in almost anything given enough time and interest to look at it. And while it may be a pattern to you and others who may go through it, plenty of other people just won't see it that way.

But again, I don't think 1 game under .500 over 20 when you normally go .600 should count as a swoon. It's just not big enough of a sample. Keep trying to improve your team and keep recording how well you do the last 30 games of the season and I'm sure over time you'll see sometimes you do better, sometimes you'll do worse, but usually you'll do somewhere close to your regular record if not a little worse simply because other people are trying to improve their teams too.

[HRBaker]

One thing that is hardly EVER talked about is the fact that single game "luck" is a HUGE determining factor - so huge that team talent sometimes simply doesn't count.

If you took two EXACT teams and played them against each other 20 times, the results could be expressed by a bell curve. If everything is equal (including luck) each team will win 10 games. If one team gets lucky, it will win 15 games. In this scenario, someone would scream bloody murder that they were being targeted through some secret code in the game... but it's simply probabilities.

That said, you do this 20 game experiment 100 times, that represents 2,000 games, and the split would be pretty much 50/50 - BUT - there will be some of those 100 runs where one team won 15 games, maybe even 20.

It's an old cliche', but that's why there are 150+ games in a baseball schedule... an attempt to dilute the effect of small number results.

One more thing I have to point out; suggesting there is some secret code behind the scenes that targets "anyone" for "any" reason isn't going to get much traction among the rest of us. Some of us have been here for almost the entire trip, and although we raise our voices complaining about various things we don't like, we KNOW the development team's ONLY goal this past 25 years has been to represent the game of baseball as accurately as possible. Period.

[Kushiel]

Mr. Bailey and I often both agree or disagree on different subjects. But name calling one another or anybody else never crossed our minds. We state our opinions of the game, not about one another just as we do with many other players that come here to vent or brag about their teams. We are not haters or fanboys of the game. We love the game. But the game is not perfect.

You are the one with 2 months and only 18 posts. You have no idea of the content of discussions here since PT19. And yet, you come on here calling names. I will not respond again to you, but I hope you find some relief from whatever makes you so angry.

It's a game. Like it or not. Have fun or agonize about September.

[bailey]

Originally Posted by 99LVAces

Thoughtful contributor encouraging rage quitting. hmmmm

It was a joke.

There are lots of reasons for September swoons.

The most likely reason is RNG.
But, it's similar to reverse sweeps in playoffs. (JOKE incoming) If YOU don't have a September swoon, no one can have a September miracle comeback!

September is a Saturday and many people are too busy to manage fatigue. Are you managing fatigue? Are you paying attention to your bullpen and swapping in fresh arms? Have you looked at your September schedule? Is it a brutal one with almost no days off, while your key opponents have a day off every Thursday? Have you properly set fatigue limits globally and for individual positions like 2B and C? Are your depth charts properly set, so that no one is backing up 3 positions or if you have this situation are you making use of 7-day lineups so all 3 starters don't get tired at once? It is a very common mistake to let the AI manage it all and you end up with 5 players tired at once with only 1 or 2 backups coupled with an overworked bullpen because of a brutal schedule or extra inning game. And will you be pissed off when a properly managed, well-rested team meets a weak team with a gassed bullpen, multiple position players below 80% and lose 1-0 as the opposition starter with 62 stamina pitches a complete game?

There is a reason I play Quito because I like the team abbreviation: QUIT.

[dishnet34]

It's almost like some of this logic can apply to another thing people hate - reverse sweeps

[Bunktown Ballers]

<snipped trolling>

[kq76]

I'm closing this thread as I don't think there's anymore hope of anything constructive coming from it.