Challenging OF throws with runner on 3rd

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

That's precisely my point. If you can't put *any* faith in the description or in what you see, and it's a near enough automatic out regardless, then there's no point in having the minigame in there.

For what it's worth I like the minigame. I want it to be usable.



That is not usable.

The mini game should have never been introduced to start with. You are the manager, you are in the dugout, you have no way to stop or send the runner. That is what the base coach is for. Just my 2 cents and why I don't scream from the dugout "GO!!!" YMMV.

But people complained they wanted it and they got it. Of course the routine SF are going to score. That means every time one sees the "choice" box it is going to be a close play. One needs to go into this choice knowing the location and arm are only part of the equation. The biggest part is the box coming up at all that is telling you "This is going to be close".

[Syd Thrift]

Perhaps one thing that might help is if the game just straight up says "the runner has a good chance of being thrown out on this play" or "this looks like a gimme" or "it looks like a 50/50 chance". I wouldn't necessarily need to see percentages but just some general eyeballing would be cool. Obviously the game takes Speed, Baserunning (although I think Baserunning is more code for "how often does this guy make blunders on the basepaths", I'm not sure), and OF arm into account, but it does indeed take where the ball is hit as well.

All that said, I leave baserunning decisions to my bench coaches. TBT I leave all decisions except for substitutions to coaches because my preferred style of playing is to manage all games for all teams (from the 7th inning on) and I don't want to get too bogged down in the weeds (and, well, the not-one-pitch one-pitch aspect of the game bothers me).

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by RchW

This is nonsense.

Sorry it is absolutely NOT nonesense.
Take the time to set up a sim to prove or disprove it.
I have done it. You haven't

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by DirkGildun

I think you should look at the actual ratings of the players rather than the descriptions that are displayed in the popup.

For instance, I have a 2B who is always described as a "fantastic runner" in these popups. He is 21/20 in Stealing and 19/20 in Baserunning, but only 11/20 in Speed. I don't believe he has ever been safe trying to get to 3rd or Home when I have the choice to send him.

oooooooooooooooops you mean 11/20 in speed BECAUSE speed PER OOTP is really RATE of stealing, but that same rating is used for baserunning???
ohhhhhhhhhhh now you get the problem : )
Yes it is a problem despite the people who claiming otherwise who don't sim to prove it or actually play out games, where i first encountered the nonsense

They will not change it unless you complain.

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

Bit more data. Still very low volume but results are cringe worthy. I'll post only results where you'd think the runner had a clear advantage (so no great or cannon arms, and no shallow balls).

Runners: Fast or Fantastic
Ball depth: Average or deeper
Arm strength: Normal or below
Results: 1 run, 16 outs

It's veeeeery slow to get this data because it just doesn't pop up as often as you'd think. So even with me clicking "yes" to run for home every time, it's tough to get volume results. But come on. That baserunning minigame is clearly broken.

That is why you have to set up a SIM where change all the speed ratings of a team or teams each year and and see how many SF actually occur.
compare to all other teams.
do extreme values as one test

do 20-30 years

YES IT IS CLEARLY BROKEN and has been.
I am not sure if SPEED RATING of of say 61/100 equates to 61% chance

Think Stratomatic where you 'pick' a card 1-20.
All runners are 8 (truck) 17 (Fastest)
Add or subtract ARM (say it is 0)

Pretty sure OOPTB is Bell curve (again not based on actual speed BUT the rate at which they steal bases!)
So 50 Speed (pretend it has nothing to do with rate of stealing bases) that is 50% chance of advancing?

The best place to get a handle on the league is go to sortable stats (not available for team, but available for players)
Create view with baserunning ratings and stats and other things that might be of interest.

OOPTB does not track, unknown why..running advances which would make analysis so much easier

Welcome beta tester year 22 : )

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Pacoheadley

I think what they mean is that Sacrifice Fly success over sims is directly tied to the Speed stat, which is also directly tied to Stolen Base Tendency.

Speed makes sense as a main factor for SF success along with BR ability, but we should maybe have another rating for Stolen Base Tendency.
\
Only kinda related to the main post though

THANK YOU . Yes and LOL I thought this POST a great time to my biggest pet peeve SPEED STAT .....i have played enough manual and SIMs to know how it works.
Not we maybe should....WE SHOULD have Speed and RATE of SB separate. They haven't done it cuz new RATING would need to be created and then reprogramming to account to point each appropriate place......pain in the but.....but do and get it over with : ))


I do not know how the PLAYER or TEAM slider for aggressive to none base stealing works with or overrides the RATE of Stealing AKA SPEED.

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by Sweed

The mini game should have never been introduced to start with. You are the manager, you are in the dugout, you have no way to stop or send the runner. That is what the base coach is for. Just my 2 cents and why I don't scream from the dugout "GO!!!" YMMV.

But people complained they wanted it and they got it. Of course the routine SF are going to score. That means every time one sees the "choice" box it is going to be a close play. One needs to go into this choice knowing the location and arm are only part of the equation. The biggest part is the box coming up at all that is telling you "This is going to be close".

Old post I know but I want to update with my final tallies since I won't be keeping track anymore.

Again, scenarios tracked are only when the runner is described as having a clear and undeniable advantage. So runners are always good or fantastic, OF depth is always average or deeper, and OFer arm is always average or worse. All 3 conditions must be met.

Final tally:
6 safe, 39 out

Breakdown:
Fast vs AVG OF depth, Below Avg Arm: 0 safe, 1 out
Fast vs Deep OF depth, Below Avg Arm: 0 safe, 2 out
Fast vs Avg OF depth, Normal Arm: 2 safe, 7 out
Fast vs Deep OF depth, Normal Arm: 2 safe, 5 out
Fantastic vs AVG OF depth, Normal Arm: 0 safe, 11 out
Fantastic vs Deep OF depth, Normal Arm: 2 safe, 13 out

Conclusion: Broken.

Edit: forgot to add that data is for SF to score only.

[Qrusher14242]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

Old post I know but I want to update with my final tallies since I won't be keeping track anymore.

Again, scenarios tracked are only when the runner is described as having a clear and undeniable advantage. So runners are always good or fantastic, OF depth is always average or deeper, and OFer arm is always average or worse. All 3 conditions must be met.

Final tally:
6 safe, 39 out

Breakdown:
Fast vs AVG OF depth, Below Avg Arm: 0 safe, 1 out
Fast vs Deep OF depth, Below Avg Arm: 0 safe, 2 out
Fast vs Avg OF depth, Normal Arm: 2 safe, 7 out
Fast vs Deep OF depth, Normal Arm: 2 safe, 5 out
Fantastic vs AVG OF depth, Normal Arm: 0 safe, 11 out
Fantastic vs Deep OF depth, Normal Arm: 2 safe, 13 out

Conclusion: Broken.

Edit: forgot to add that data is for SF to score only.

wow! i knew it was bad, but that's crazy. I know i just never send them anymore, it's like winning the lottery actually scoring a run. Was it ever like this before 22??

[Matt Arnold]

I know there was a bug on release where the OF assist modifier was higher than expected, and that did cause issues. I belive it's supposed to be at like 0.30, and it was accidentally set at 0.60.

Overall, those decision points should be more like 50/50 calls, or even up to about 2/3 safe. So I would double check what modifier is in your game as that could shift the odds heavily if it was never corrected (if you run autocalcs I believe it would have been fixed by itself) I know it was listed in a thread and in one of the patch notes, although off-hand I can't remember which one.

[Eugene Church]

Originally Posted by sdw1000

Ya..I've had fantastic runners on 2nd going around home with a below avg outfielder and he gets thrown out from deep. Ridiculous. .

I play my games out in one-pitch mode... my comments are not based on research, just casual observations as I play out the games.

I regularly get runners thrown out at home plate when the ball is hit deep near the fence... sorry, I don't think this happens in real baseball.

Runners on third don't always tag on deep fly balls... even slow runner can do this.

This is a problem in the game.

I think I will just let the AI handle the baserunning in my future games and see if the outcomes improve.

Will let you know how it works out.

[brotherblues]

1 viable solution would be to increase the choice popups, by lowering the scenarios where the runner automatically tags up and scores with no popup. Add those scenarios to the popup pool. Now you can have a better safe to out ratio in popups, and give the user an actual risk/reward to consider.

[DCG12]

[QUOTE=brotherblues;4833188]In one pitch mode, it will work out as you never getting thrown out, because when the AI takes off automatically, it's automatically safe. When the popup comes up, though, it's nearly always an out regardless of the written or visual evidence provided. So the thing to do is to always decline the popup.



I strongly disagree with this. I have a historical league that started in 1951 with OOTP21 (now transferred to OOTP 22) that is now in 1965. I play out all my games as the Red Sox and I would say I am safe more than I am out maybe far more than I am out.

I think the secret might be in picking your spots and READING the pop up. I noticed long ago that the visual 3D representation is misleading. For example I noticed this one time that the fielder caught the ball near the triangle in right-center field which would be about 400 feet away but the pop up said it was a shallow fly ball. If I had run I probably would have been out and very frustrated.

The other thing is I seldom run on a fielder who is described as having a cannon for an arm. The only time might be in the late innings when I'm down by a run with 2 out because I think I have a better chance of being safe then getting that 2 out hit with the next batter.

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by DCG12

I strongly disagree with this. I have a historical league that started in 1951 with OOTP21 (now transferred to OOTP 22) that is now in 1965. I play out all my games as the Red Sox and I would say I am safe more than I am out maybe far more than I am out.

I think the secret might be in picking your spots and READING the pop up. I noticed long ago that the visual 3D representation is misleading. For example I noticed this one time that the fielder caught the ball near the triangle in right-center field which would be about 400 feet away but the pop up said it was a shallow fly ball. If I had run I probably would have been out and very frustrated.

The other thing is I seldom run on a fielder who is described as having a cannon for an arm. The only time might be in the late innings when I'm down by a run with 2 out because I think I have a better chance of being safe then getting that 2 out hit with the next batter.

I think you skipped over the data I collected. It's predicated on reading the text. See this:

Originally Posted by brotherblues

Old post I know but I want to update with my final tallies since I won't be keeping track anymore.

Again, scenarios tracked are only when the runner is described as having a clear and undeniable advantage. So runners are always good or fantastic, OF depth is always average or deeper, and OFer arm is always average or worse. All 3 conditions must be met.

Final tally:
6 safe, 39 out

Breakdown:
Fast vs AVG OF depth, Below Avg Arm: 0 safe, 1 out
Fast vs Deep OF depth, Below Avg Arm: 0 safe, 2 out
Fast vs Avg OF depth, Normal Arm: 2 safe, 7 out
Fast vs Deep OF depth, Normal Arm: 2 safe, 5 out
Fantastic vs AVG OF depth, Normal Arm: 0 safe, 11 out
Fantastic vs Deep OF depth, Normal Arm: 2 safe, 13 out

Conclusion: Broken.

Edit: forgot to add that data is for SF to score only.

Very interesting that your experience is being safe more often than not with the popup, while I'm safe 6 times and out 39 times when the text suggests I should run. I'm on all modern default modifiers, so mostly 1s on all modifiers. You?

[BIG17EASY]

Have you checked your OF assist modifier like Matt suggested?

[DCG12]

Obviously my modifiers aren't all 1.0 because I'm playing historical and the modifiers change to match the year.

As to the question Big17Easy asked my modifier for outfield assists is.338 which was set by the game not me.

I think you need to check and see what yours is because if it's 1.0 that would be your problem.

As Matt said there was a bug one time that set the modifier way to high but since that was fixed I have created a few fictional leagues and never seen anything over .435

[brotherblues]

My OF Assist modifier is at 0.25

I haven't touched any of that

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

In one pitch mode, it will work out as you never getting thrown out, because when the AI takes off automatically, it's automatically safe.

I play out all of my games and this is not true.

AI controls my baserunning and I have guys on third, nobody out, AI, sometimes, has them tag up and they are thrown out. My thought is always with nobody out how about holding them. Other than strike out we have a good chance of getting that run in with the next AB by either groundout or second chance at sac fly. These are just the times that stick out. There are other situations too.

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by Sweed

I play out all of my games and this is not true.

AI controls my baserunning and I have guys on third, nobody out, AI, sometimes, has them tag up and they are thrown out. My thought is always with nobody out how about holding them. Other than strike out we have a good chance of getting that run in with the next AB by either groundout or second chance at sac fly. These are just the times that stick out. There are other situations too.

This just blew my mind. I've played thousands of games in One Pitch and I've never seen a guy automatically tag up and get thrown out.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

This just blew my mind. I've played thousands of games in One Pitch and I've never seen a guy automatically tag up and get thrown out.

I've played every version since 2002 and this has not been an odd occurrence in any of my games. Maybe we need to parse this out?

Your reply to Eugene stated if he went to having the AI control baserunning his runners would always be safe, correct? I take it then Eugene is turning off the popup baserunning decision box, same as I play. In this case runners will definitely not always be safe on tag ups. I'll add to for clarity that, in my game with this setting, the AI teams too have players thrown out on tag ups. IE AI team's runners are not always safe either.

Now if you have the popup box enabled I have no doubt the runners will always be safe when there is no popup box. Why not? There is no decision that has to be made. IE with the popup box enabled it only comes up when the runner has a chance of being out. It never comes up if the run is a "gimme". Why would it? This part is speculation on my part as I never use the option, as noted above I think it is unrealistic. This also makes me wonder what your "thrown out" stats look like if you include the "automatic" runs scored? With these included do you get realistic stats? My guess is you would.

You could have a point on the box making you think the run should score from all of the variables. Maybe they should be tweaked? Too me though, as I already mentioned, the box is only going to come up for close plays. Maybe it shouldn't come up when an 8\8 baserunner is on unless the ball is very shallow or the OF has a 7\8 or 8\8 arm? Maybe they should lower the chance of it coming up overall? IOW make more "gimmes" and take the decision out of the users hands? This of course will be followed by user complaints

As I'm typing another possible fix would be to have the popup box come up every time even on the "gimmes". The user gets more decisions and sees more runners he sends scoring. It would do a better job of putting it all in context of real stats and take away some frustration?

In any case I digress to the original point, the second paragraph is not speculation as I've seen it enough times it feels realistic. FWIW I have never kept track in my game of how often as I've never seen any reason too from what I have observed.

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

This just blew my mind. I've played thousands of games in One Pitch and I've never seen a guy automatically tag up and get thrown out.

Are you setting baserunning to be AI controlled?