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Old 08-24-2020, 12:23 PM   #21
joker7702
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I just want to thank Lucas for being up front about the models and the fact that there are bugs, and what those bugs might be.
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Old 08-24-2020, 01:02 PM   #22
Lukas Berger
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Originally Posted by mlbrandomstats View Post
What's up with James Karinchak's control and movement? He's a 75 overall despite 154 stuff because his movement is a 68 and control is a 25. He's thrown 20 MLB innings, has walked just 7 guys and hasn't allowed a homer. And he allowed less than a homer per 20 innings pitched in the Minors. Don't get why the game is so low on him
You'd have to ask Dan about why ZIPS was that down on him. His minor league walk numbers are not pretty though.

I have actually upgraded his control ratings a bit in the regular game already, but that's not going to get pulled into PT at this point.
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Old 08-24-2020, 01:22 PM   #23
chazzycat
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If you think the projections are unfair towards certain players...go out and buy that card. That is how you get fast rising players - by them beating their projections significantly. Karinchek is up like 12 points on the season already, IIRC, and could keep rising...
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Old 08-24-2020, 02:56 PM   #24
deejqu1k
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So I think the OOTP engineers missed the boat here in an avoidable way.

We knew for months that this was going to be at best, a truncated season and given that the game is only active one calendar year, the fact that they chose not to take the length of season and tweak the LIVE model in order to deliver value on they year, strikes me as something between careless and lazy. One of the core features of the game was materially changed with warning and based on how Ive seen these ratings rise and fall, it sure seems like they're using the same engine to exactly.

If I'm wrong than I apolgozie, but it seemed like an easy win for the OOTP team.

"In this world, it can be said that nothing is certain except death, taxes and Josh Hader being disrespected by the OOTP live engine." - Ben Franklin
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Old 08-24-2020, 03:03 PM   #25
deejqu1k
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So I think the OOTP engineers missed the boat here in an avoidable way.

We knew for months that this was going to be at best, a truncated season and given that the game is only active one calendar year, the fact that they chose not to take the length of season and tweak the LIVE model in order to deliver value on they year, strikes me as something between careless and lazy. One of the core features of the game was materially changed with warning and based on how Ive seen these ratings rise and fall, it sure seems like they're using the same engine to exactly.

If I'm wrong than I apolgozie, but it seemed like an easy win for the OOTP team.

"In this world, it can be said that nothing is certain except death, taxes and Josh Hader being disrespected by the OOTP live engine." - Ben Franklin
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Old 08-24-2020, 03:48 PM   #26
Lukas Berger
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Originally Posted by deejqu1k View Post
So I think the OOTP engineers missed the boat here in an avoidable way.

We knew for months that this was going to be at best, a truncated season and given that the game is only active one calendar year, the fact that they chose not to take the length of season and tweak the LIVE model in order to deliver value on they year, strikes me as something between careless and lazy. One of the core features of the game was materially changed with warning and based on how Ive seen these ratings rise and fall, it sure seems like they're using the same engine to exactly.

If I'm wrong than I apolgozie, but it seemed like an easy win for the OOTP team.

"In this world, it can be said that nothing is certain except death, taxes and Josh Hader being disrespected by the OOTP live engine." - Ben Franklin
This is not accurate. We significantly changed the formula, to make the cards move much quicker and to have the results from the smaller season affect things to a greater extent, proportionally, than would have been the case last year.
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Old 08-24-2020, 03:54 PM   #27
Matt Arnold
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deejqu1k View Post
So I think the OOTP engineers missed the boat here in an avoidable way.

We knew for months that this was going to be at best, a truncated season and given that the game is only active one calendar year, the fact that they chose not to take the length of season and tweak the LIVE model in order to deliver value on they year, strikes me as something between careless and lazy. One of the core features of the game was materially changed with warning and based on how Ive seen these ratings rise and fall, it sure seems like they're using the same engine to exactly.

If I'm wrong than I apolgozie, but it seemed like an easy win for the OOTP team.

"In this world, it can be said that nothing is certain except death, taxes and Josh Hader being disrespected by the OOTP live engine." - Ben Franklin
I mean, Hader is a 93 at least this year, so it's not like he's as bad as he has been some other years.

We did debate what kind of weighting, if any, to change this year, but in the end, we also wanted to be careful to not distort things too much due to the short season. As much as it makes sense to give larger boosts due to the small season, if you scale things to the season length any more, it ends up distorting things too much. You don't really want a player to be able to drop from a perfect down to a gold all in one go due to a 2 week sample. If you over-sample things, then you would probably have a case like Rendon go from 96 down to like an 82 after the first week, and then jump back up to a 98 or 99 or so after this update. We felt the results there would be more jarring, so we ended up at the weightings that we are currently using.
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Old 08-24-2020, 04:51 PM   #28
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You'd have to ask Dan about why ZIPS was that down on him. His minor league walk numbers are not pretty though.

I have actually upgraded his control ratings a bit in the regular game already, but that's not going to get pulled into PT at this point.
ZiPS rest of season has him projected for 0.37 HR/9, wouldn't that be in the 80s or 90s for movement?
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Old 08-24-2020, 05:00 PM   #29
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JOSE ABREU ---This is the funniest one
Leads AL in HR's RBI, BLAH BLAH...HIT 7-9 HR Last week (6 this weekend for christ sake) and he's rated a 75. The dislike for White Sox is striking.... ELOY? Tim Anderson....Dylan Cease? Too to name them all.Matt Foster hasn't even given up a run yet a whip of around 0.50 ERA 0.00 It's like randomly thrown numbers up against a wall...

I know it is for me. I was at a game in the 80's in the Metrodome and some real loud old ladies from Chicago were behind me and my buddy. My friend said "Fisk is wearing the wrong colored socks"....lady said "They are red like you neck" - I replied "1919 world series, nuff said" and it sailed over their heads. They were sorta nice though and got beat. Twins were aweful in the early 80's quite solid later.
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Old 08-24-2020, 05:14 PM   #30
Lukas Berger
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ZiPS rest of season has him projected for 0.37 HR/9, wouldn't that be in the 80s or 90s for movement?
The ratings are based on ZIPS from back in March. I'm sure Dan has made some changes since then, but they wouldn't be reflected in the cards.
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