I've never seen anything like this in all my years

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by Fyrestorm3

As for realism, ask yourself this - should the Red Sox have won the World Series this year, on paper?

no they were supposed to win it in 2012... so John Farrell is the difference...

OP- was Farrell coaching the Phillies?

[The Game]

Originally Posted by ootpyeahyouknowme

Now you tell me how that Phillies team managed to win 92 games over that Mets team. I've seen some miracles in OOTP but never like that.

I play a fictional historical replay and it's hard to get teams to do what i want them to even when they are stacked with tons of talent. My 2017 Indians are a prime example of a team that was good on another game and sucked on OOTP. I am shocked that my 2018 White Sox played the 2018 Mets in the WS

[ootpyeahyouknowme]

Originally Posted by Fyrestorm3

I can 100% guarantee you that OOTP does not "fix" any outcomes at all.

I'm really not so sure about that. On a consistent basis entire lineups will often underperform the entire season. Adding players, switching lineups, does nothing to change anything. The entire pitching staff will be overall atrocious sometimes, with even elite pitchers getting shelled.

I've always felt that it fixes you in for a certain offensive pattern or pitching pattern which you can't change. When things are going good, every player you put in hits, when bad, none of them do.

There's also patterns around the time of the season. I've noticed that at the end of the season, teams will generally either collapse totally or streak to the playoffs.

Or players will not hit for an entire half, then turn it on the 2nd half, ending up where his ratings are. Over the years I've seen a lot of these patterns in the game.

[ootpyeahyouknowme]

In other words, if it decides to blow up your pitching staff, the entire staff will get shelled, with no minor leaguer, no free agent, no player you input in able to be good. Pitchers playing well under their ratings.

Same with the offense. If it tickets you in for offensive ineptitude, every player you put in won't hit.

On the other side, if it's going good, you can do no wrong. That AAAA player you put in will hit. The 5 star rookie will explode, the entire team will hit.

With this case, Gose went from a .220 hitter that couldn't hit a lick to a .320 hitter. Extreme upgrades offensively to every batter in the lineup. Whereas the season before no one could hit, the next season the whole lineup blew up offensively.

It's like there is this universal, overarching parameter on the offense and pitching which fixes you in a certain way.

[Lukas Berger]

I can assure you that OOTP does not predetermine any outcomes ever, under any circumstances.

Those are all simply cases of confirmation bias.

Your mind thinks it sees patterns where there are none. That's how the human brain is programmed, to look for patterns. Then once you get an idea that there are patterns, even where there are none, you mind becomes ever more and more certain that there are patterns and then seeks out results that fit into those patterns while ignoring results that don't.

It happens to all of us since that's just part of how our brains are programmed.

[Lukas Berger]

For proof, save a season at the beginning and then play/sim it 100 times. Then see how many different results you get. You won't see players and teams locked into specific up or down trends in every run-through, since that just isn't how OOTP works. There will be a lot of different outcomes.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by ootpyeahyouknowme

I'm really not so sure about that. On a consistent basis entire lineups will often underperform the entire season. Adding players, switching lineups, does nothing to change anything. The entire pitching staff will be overall atrocious sometimes, with even elite pitchers getting shelled.

I've always felt that it fixes you in for a certain offensive pattern or pitching pattern which you can't change. When things are going good, every player you put in hits, when bad, none of them do.

There's also patterns around the time of the season. I've noticed that at the end of the season, teams will generally either collapse totally or streak to the playoffs.

Or players will not hit for an entire half, then turn it on the 2nd half, ending up where his ratings are. Over the years I've seen a lot of these patterns in the game.

If the OOTP baseball Gods deemed you to suck, you will suck. It happens IRL too. Cubs, Yankees, A's etc

[Fyrestorm3]

Originally Posted by lukasberger

I can assure you that OOTP does not predetermine any outcomes ever, under any circumstances.

Those are all simply cases of confirmation bias.

Your mind thinks it sees patterns where there are none. That's how the human brain is programmed, to look for patterns. Then once you get an idea that there are patterns, even where there are none, you mind becomes ever more and more certain that there are patterns and then seeks out results that fit into those patterns while ignoring results that don't.

It happens to all of us since that's just part of how our brains are programmed.

This, exactly. It's surprisingly easy to subconsciously ignore three players that went 0-3 after a game in which the rest of the team scattered 18 hits.

But, the idea of an overall trend where a team as a whole appears to be playing well or playing poorly occurs in real life, too. Hot streaks exist. Sometimes the team just can't get a hit to save their lives, and the momentum continues that way for a few games. OOTP does a fantastic job of modeling this simply by not trying to model it. With semi-random outcomes based on the ratings of the players, you'll go through stretches where your entire team seems to be hitting.

As has been said multiple times by now, try playing out a season (or even just a single game) 25-50 times, and see how much variance there actually is. I can assure you, with utter confidence, that there will be plenty of differences each time you sim.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by ootpyeahyouknowme

I'm really not so sure about that. On a consistent basis entire lineups will often underperform the entire season. Adding players, switching lineups, does nothing to change anything. The entire pitching staff will be overall atrocious sometimes, with even elite pitchers getting shelled.

I've always felt that it fixes you in for a certain offensive pattern or pitching pattern which you can't change. When things are going good, every player you put in hits, when bad, none of them do.

There's also patterns around the time of the season. I've noticed that at the end of the season, teams will generally either collapse totally or streak to the playoffs.

Or players will not hit for an entire half, then turn it on the 2nd half, ending up where his ratings are. Over the years I've seen a lot of these patterns in the game.

In other words, if it decides to blow up your pitching staff, the entire staff will get shelled, with no minor leaguer, no free agent, no player you input in able to be good. Pitchers playing well under their ratings.

Same with the offense. If it tickets you in for offensive ineptitude, every player you put in won't hit.

On the other side, if it's going good, you can do no wrong. That AAAA player you put in will hit. The 5 star rookie will explode, the entire team will hit.

With this case, Gose went from a .220 hitter that couldn't hit a lick to a .320 hitter. Extreme upgrades offensively to every batter in the lineup. Whereas the season before no one could hit, the next season the whole lineup blew up offensively.

It's like there is this universal, overarching parameter on the offense and pitching which fixes you in a certain way.

All of this is competely anecdotal evidence. You really need to back this claim up with some facts before anyone will take it seriously.

[le receveur]

also, to add on what others have said, you mentioned your pitching not performing to par, but have shown none of your defensive results. as a Jays follower, i can tell you, that a Bonifiasco D will turn a Cy Young winner into a pretty average pitcher

[CaLíKrAzY]

Plus looking at your lineup I'm just not sold on it, way too much youth (only david wright is above 30 yrs old). I'm not sure how well OOTP models leadership an chemistry but that is definitely something to look at.

We'd loooooove to know where the Phillies ranked on defense, offense, what their stats were etc, etc.

Every year there's a feel good team or 2 in baseball it seems like it's inevitable.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by CaLíKrAzY

Plus looking at your lineup I'm just not sold on it, way too much youth (only david wright is above 30 yrs old). I'm not sure how well OOTP models leadership an chemistry but that is definitely something to look at.

We'd loooooove to know where the Phillies ranked on defense, offense, what their stats were etc, etc.

Every year there's a feel good team or 2 in baseball it seems like it's inevitable.

He has some good stars on his team. Youth is not an issue, usually, in ootp.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by CaLíKrAzY

Plus looking at your lineup I'm just not sold on it, way too much youth (only david wright is above 30 yrs old). I'm not sure how well OOTP models leadership an chemistry but that is definitely something to look at.

We'd loooooove to know where the Phillies ranked on defense, offense, what their stats were etc, etc.

Every year there's a feel good team or 2 in baseball it seems like it's inevitable.

have not seen the need for veteran presents on OOTP so far. Defense, yes. Solid BP yes...

[ootpyeahyouknowme]

Originally Posted by Fyrestorm3

As has been said multiple times by now, try playing out a season (or even just a single game) 25-50 times, and see how much variance there actually is.

I've done that a few times before and what I found is that the same general pattern emerges. The best team hovers close to 1st place with 1 or 2 teams most of the season and then when mid-august comes, turns on the jets and streaks in front of the pack. Usually winning the division by 5-10 games.

Not every time but most of the time, 2 or 3 teams will hang around close to 1st place until mid-August, and then the best team gets hot at the end.

[ootpyeahyouknowme]

Originally Posted by le receveur

also, to add on what others have said, you mentioned your pitching not performing to par, but have shown none of your defensive results. as a Jays follower, i can tell you, that a Bonifiasco D will turn a Cy Young winner into a pretty average pitcher

My ZR was +12.4. The Phillies was -11.3. Phils were 8th in runs and 9th in runs against. But 2nd in stolen bases. The only thing that stands out is the amount of stolen bases they had. Everything else was average or below average.

I'm sure it was stolen bases that cost me. I'm positive that if I had tinkered with each individual player's game strategy, and the team strategy, I would have gotten more sb's and much more runs. I just didn't bother with it.

[ootpyeahyouknowme]

I ranked 13th in stolen bases. I'm pretty sure not setting my game and player strategies cost me at least 4 or 5 wins. Stolen bases help win 1-run games, where I was 28-31.

Simply setting my stolen base frequency higher would have won me a playoff spot, if not the division.

Nevertheless, it was still pretty odd that the Phillies won so many games with what they put up statistically.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by ootpyeahyouknowme

I ranked 13th in stolen bases. I'm pretty sure not setting my game and player strategies cost me at least 4 or 5 wins. Stolen bases help win 1-run games, where I was 28-31.

Simply setting my stolen base frequency higher would have won me a playoff spot, if not the division.

Nevertheless, it was still pretty odd that the Phillies won so many games with what they put up statistically.

look at the orioles in 2012... all those one run games

[Orcin]

I do have one question. Is there a limit to the number of people that I can put on my ignore list?

[CaLíKrAzY]

Also was this entire season entirely sim'ed or did you play any of these games out? Honestly, that matters a ton on the feel of your team and maximizing its talents. Impossible to really break it down thoroughly without any numbers to look at in the end.

[Fyrestorm3]

I'm still waiting for evidence of any of these claims.