Orcin Returns

[Orcin]

First Day of the Off-Season

Task 4: Submit arbitration offers to eligible players or “no-tender” them

There are six players eligible for arbitration, but only one will receive an offer.

SP Will Spencer (29/R) made 30 starts in 2014, throwing 180 innings. He has a career record of 54-39 with a 4.34 ERA. His best season was 2012 when he was 18-6 with a 3.58 ERA. He is a .500 pitcher with a 4.50 ERA over the rest of his career. Spencer is worth the $800K estimate. I need the depth and I would likely have to pay $1 million to get an equivalent pitcher on the free agent market. There is some risk involved because he is out of options and will have to make the team or clear waivers.

C Tsutomu Kubo (25/L) has been offered a contract at more than his estimate so I am not likely to go all the way to arbitration with him even if he is not traded.

1B Rick Thomas (29/R) has already been discussed. His $5.5M estimate is way too high for his position and performance. I will be able to beat this easily on the free agent market or via trade.

SS Alejandro Martinez, SP David Brown, and RF Mike Kirkland are journeyman players and I can find equivalent players without options on the spring training waiver list. There’s no reason to waste a roster spot on these players ahead of the Rule 5 draft.


Task 5: Make offers to potential free agents, including minor leaguers

There were several minor league players with options remaining that were potential free agents. I offered them minor league contracts first. This delays a decision on moving them to the secondary (40-man) roster if they are Rule 5 eligible. I expect that some of these players will end up on the 40-man roster eventually.

Only one player, SP Cristobal Tapia, refused my minor league offer. Good bye and good luck in the future.


Task 6: Offer long-term contracts to young stars to avoid future arbitration

The tactic here is to offer extensions to players that have large arbitration estimates for 2016, but are not eligible for 2015 arbitration. Frankly, I don’t have enough confidence in my scouting or my budget to run this type of gambit.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by deandean1998

Who, in their right minds, would offer some 32-36 year old relievers 6 year contracts in the first place.

Well, keep in mind that asking and getting are two different things.

[Orcin]

November 2, 2014

Scout Phil Green accepted my offer overnight. Excellent!

Green and I went to work immediately to identify candidates for the right-handed power bat. We did not find an affordable soon-to-be free agent that was better than incumbent 1B Rick Thomas. We turned to the player database with Green’s newly-updated ratings and searched for quality right-handed batters with power and a good eye.

One player caught my eye immediately, and we researched him. When I saw that he was a 2010 first-round draft pick from Illinois State University (my parent’s alma mater), I was convinced that it was an omen and I needed to pursue a trade for this player. His name is Bryan McConnell and he plays left field for the Sacramento Outlaws.

McConnell is young (26) with exceptional intangibles (very high leadership and high work ethic, along with very low greed and normal loyalty). He can play left field very well, and has enough experience at first base to play it adequately. His ability to play either position would give me the flexibility to sign a left-handed first baseman in the late free agent market, or go with Brian Ferguson in left field and McConnell at first base.

McConnell is arbitration eligible with an estimate of $6 million. I can probably squeeze the $3 million difference between him and Kubo into my budget. However, negotiations became complicated when I contacted the Outlaws and found that they would not trade McConnell straight up for Kubo.

The Outlaws were very interested in my stable of speedy left-handed outfielders. I took Ferguson off the table right away and they focused on Rafael Vasquez (not Valdez). I was happy with that choice because the similar names were beginning to annoy me, but I wanted a little more. We ended up with a 3-for-2 trade in which I also received a young bullpen prospect and gave up an older starting pitcher that I just non-tendered.

Vasquez and Kubo are good players. I think Vasquez could become an outstanding player but I need some right-handed hitters. Sacramento would not trade McConnell without getting a significant prospect in return.

I like the deal. McConnell could be the key piece to the puzzle – perhaps the next Dennis Morgan from a leadership standpoint.

[Orcin]

November 5, 2014 (BNN)

Subject: Colonels, Outlaws Confirm Trade

It did not take long. Otto Orcin has only been back on the job as GM of the Louisville Colonels for a few days, and a trade between Louisville and Sacramento was made official this morning.

The Colonels have sent 23-year-old right fielder Rafael Vásquez (not Váldez), 25-year-old catcher Tsutomu Kubo and 32-year-old starting pitcher David Brown to the Outlaws in exchange for 26-year-old left fielder Bryan McConnell and 21-year-old reliever Daniel Carlson.

McConnell is the key player in the trade for Louisville. He currently has a .274 career batting average with 542 hits, 61 home runs, 256 RBIs and 287 runs scored. In 2014, McConnell had a breakout season for Sacramento, batting .297 with 18 home runs, 88 RBIs, and 36 stolen bases.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

23-year-old right fielder Rafael Vásquez (not Váldez)

I wonder whether they give his last name like that in his ID and drivers license, too.

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal thinks that Duncan Bland will do the impossible and have a strong offensive year, rallying in celebration of his Ol' GM's return!

Bland is in the dugout at the spring training facility right now, with a youngster to his right and a youngster to his left, one perhaps at his feet, asking if he can get him some more sunflower seeds. Bland is saying, "And then there was that time we would have lost the pennant, but Orcin ..." And, "I was feeling oh-so-down, but Mr. Orcin came down to the dugout, looked me square in the eye, and said, 'Bland, you're my catcher. Get out there and show the folks what I see in you.' " Then Bland will have to excuse himself--cause he wouldn't want to show the youngins the tear welling up in his eye.

Ah, Sal loves to reminesce about the old days.

[Orcin]

November 6, 2014

You didn’t think I was finished, did you? Now comes the hard part.

The payroll is too high. I want to reduce the payroll by enough money to allow for some veteran free agent pickups and still show a profit this year. I don’t want to chip away at the problem; I want to solve it. Let’s do a Pareto analysis of the payroll. This technique will help us identify the action that can get us the most “bang” for our “buck”.

2015 Payroll (descending order)
RF Eduardo Sanchez $18M
CF Rafael Valdez $15.3M
SP Edgardo Ordonez $14M
C Duncan Bland $9.3M
LF Bryan McConnell $6M
SS Luis Vargas $5.7M

That’s $68M or almost 75% of the payroll in six players. The exercise is simple. Start at the top of the list and work down, asking if the player can be adequately replaced with a cheaper player within the organization.

Eduardo Sanchez can be replaced by moving Brian Ferguson to right field, using Bryan McConnell in left field, and signing a left-handed slugger to play first base on the cheap late in free agency. Vargas or Ferguson could bat leadoff.

Rafael Valdez is a team leader, good offensively, and rated 10 in center field. That’s not easily replaced, although the other moves above would work with Sanchez in center.

Edgardo Ordonez is a team leader and the “ace” of our pitching staff. We don’t have enough good starters as it is. If anything, I want to add starting pitching, not remove it.

Duncan Bland could be replaced offensively, but his defense and leadership are hard to find. The man has earned 6 rings here. He is also a very popular player with our fans. Most importantly, he has 10/5 rights and will not waive them to be traded.

McConnell and Vargas are core young players and exceptional values for their salary.

So, the solution is readily apparent. I can save the most dollars with the least damage by trading Eduardo Sanchez for prospects or at least a minimum salary player that can contribute. It won’t be easy because of his salary, contract length (it runs through 2017), and age (he will be 31 in February). However, it could be easier to do it now, because teams have uncommitted salary dollars before free agency begins.

I will be well-positioned to pursue free agents to plug several holes with the $18 million savings from this move. Sanchez is a popular player but the fans will have to get over it.

[Orcin]

November 7, 2014 (BNN)

Subject: Chicago Acquires All-Star Sanchez

The Louisville Colonels and Chicago Cougars finalized a trade today. Louisville will send 30-year-old right fielder Eduardo Sánchez and 33-year-old right fielder Mike Kirkland to the Cougars, while the Colonels will receive 20-year-old minor league starting pitcher Michael “Hawk” Bowles.

"We think this is a deal that will help both teams and we're glad to get it done," said the Colonels general manager Otto Orcin. “Financial considerations certainly entered into our thinking, but this trade was about making our organization better for the future.”

Fans in Louisville were not so sure about a future without the popular Sanchez, or the wisdom of sending him to the division-rival Cougars.

All-time Sánchez has played in 1313 games, batted .298 with 80 home runs and 1509 base hits. He hit .302 in 2014 with 20 stolen bases. Sanchez has been an All-Star four times, including the recently-concluded 2014 season.

Bowles, a left-hander, was the 30th player taken overall in the 2012 draft and is rated as the #48 prospect in the CBA according to BNN’s up-to-date rankings. In 2014, Bowles was 9-13 with a 2.74 ERA in AA, throwing 184 innings with 203 strikeouts and 86 walks.

Orcin said that the Colonels were very impressed with Bowles’ leadership and work ethic. “Bowles is very coachable and no one competes harder,” Orcin said.

Bowles is expected to spend the 2015 season at AAA Lexington, and should compete for a spot in the Louisville rotation in 2016.

[Westheim]

Reading it for a second time, I have to say that there are few things more entertaining than watching Mr. Orcin axe through a roster within ten minutes of being installed in a position to do so.

[Jabez54]

Sound like The Orc is back, more so with his selection of getting the special oof from pitchers (that knack he always have, like the Red Sox Mgr Farrell) ... Good Sound ethic, mate

[Orcin]

2014 CBA Post-Season Awards

Outstanding Player:
Patriot – 1B Hector Baca, Charleston Generals (.326/.397/.612, 40 HR, 106 RBI)
Federal – 1B Anastasio Valenzuela, Milwaukee Eagles (.329/.414/.536, 22 HR, 99 RBI)

Outstanding Pitcher:
Patriot – SP Hsi-Men Chen, Cleveland Rockers (18-3, 2.02 ERA, 212 K’s)
Federal – SP Jorge Gonzalez, Chicago Cougars (18-8, 2.26 ERA, 179 Ks)

Rookie of the Year:
Patriot – LF Ed Harris, Washington Generals (.314/.371/.503, 26 HR, 109 RBI)
Federal – C Ben Holcomb, Denver Miners (.261/.353/.468, 23 HR, 81 RBI)

Manager of the Year:
Patriot – Thomas Smith, Detroit Titans (87-75)
Federal – Forrest Foster, Indianapolis Indians (95-67)

Gold Glove:
SP Will Spencer, Louisville Colonels
SS Luis Vargas, Louisville Colonels


CBA 2014 Hall of Fame Class
No players were selected to the Hall of Fame this year.


Off-Season Center

11/10/2014: LOU SP Wallace Trauttmann signed a 3-year extension worth $15 million.

11/10/2014: CHI MR Bruce Irvine (6-4, 5.71, throws L) was claimed off waivers by Louisville. You could consider this as another player gained in the Sanchez trade.

11/12/2014: Cincinnati signed former LOU GM Chris Porter to a 4-year contract.

11/18/2014: Los Angeles signed former LOU scout Dwayne Smith to a 4-year contract.

[Orcin]

November 21, 2014 (BNN)

Subject: CBA Arbitration Hearings

General Managers across Continental Baseball Association will get a much better idea of the size of their payrolls tomorrow as the league's salary arbitration hearings get under way today. All players who filed for arbitration, but who have yet to sign a new contract, will have their cases ruled upon. The decisions will be announced tomorrow.

Salary Arbitration Decisions in Favor of the Louisville Colonels:
• SP Will Spencer was awarded $800,000. The player demanded $996,750.

Salary Arbitration Decisions Against the Louisville Colonels:
• None

[Orcin]

November 24, 2014 (BNN)

Subject: Free Agents File

Today marks the start of the CBA free agency period. Among the more notable free agents are:

• CL David Hanna, ex-LOU, 35/R/5*, 10x AS, career 1.94 ERA w/481 SV
• CL Lucas Sanders, ex-WAS, 38/R/5*, 11x AS, career 2.26 ERA w/574 SV
• SS Gerald Davis, ex-SD/SF, 29/L/4.5*, 5x AS, 3x GG, career .281/.378/.501
• RF Mauro Jaramillo, ex-SEA, 29/L/4.5*, 1x AS, career .318/.385/.421
• SP Carlos Torres, ex-SF, 28/R/4*, career 86-86 w/ 3.68 ERA
• 2B Ken Allen, ex-NSH, 32/R/4*, 3x AS, 1x GG, career .295/.375/.459
• RF Richard Burnett, ex-CHS, 30/L/4*, 3x AS, 1x OP, 1x GG, career .272/.331/.579
• LF Jake Butler, ex-ATL, 30/R/4*, 1x GG, career .279/.368/.413
• SS Paul Greene, ex-SAC, 27/L/4*, 2x AS, career .291/.347/.453
• SP Bill Robertson, ex-LOU, 37/R/4*, 6x AS, 1x OP, career 235-150 w/ 2.92 ERA
• RF Anthony Gettingby, ex-SD, 32/L/3.5*, 2x AS, 1x OP, career .278/.333/.500
• SP Robert Westaway, ex-WAS, 38/L/3.5*, 10x AS, 2x OP, career 277-123 w/2.83 ERA

Who wants to see me bring Westaway in on a two-year contract to try for 300 wins? My scout Phil Green says his fastball is down to 84-86 mph but he might still have enough movement in that splitter to get people out. I can’t compete with the big spenders and I would have to forfeit a first-round pick to sign him. It’s a long shot.

In other CBA news, the New York Monarchs traded star catcher Brian Campbell to the Cleveland Rockers for four prospects. Campbell, 32, is rated as the CBA’s #3 catcher.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

• SP Robert Westaway, ex-WAS, 38/L/3.5*, 10x AS, 2x OP, career 277-123 w/2.83 ERA

Who wants to see me bring Westaway in on a two-year contract to try for 300 wins?

I do, I do!

But 38 is ooooold.

[Sal, The Barber]

Originally Posted by Orcin

November 6, 2014
Let’s do a Pareto analysis of the payroll.

A what? This is where you lose Sal. Sal thought Pareto was dancing. Well, maybe Sal is not so far off on that one, hey, Mr. Orcin?

[Jabez54]

It would be kool ...

However ... sigh ... what was his record like for Washington ... 23 wins is really tough to get on the downward swing ... maybe as a fifth starter to share the burden for the top three to rest ... that decision is what I would base on his recent stats ... but I'm sentimental, I may do it ...

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

A what? This is where you lose Sal. Sal thought Pareto was dancing. Well, maybe Sal is not so far off on that one, hey, Mr. Orcin?

I thought Pareto was some kind of sign language.

Mr. Orcin just knows more than us common people.

[Orcin]

November 24, 2014

Subject: Salary Obligations – 2015

Eligible players filed for free agency today and arbitration is also out of the way. This is actually the most exhilarating day of new job so far. Last year’s clutter has been swept away and I can see what I have to work with in terms of talent and dollars.

We have 10 players signed above the minimum salary: 4 starting pitchers (Ordonez, Trauttmann, Rodriguez, and Spencer), 1 reliever (Merced), 2 catchers (Bland and Alejandrez), 2 outfielders (McConnell and Valdez), and the shortstop (Vargas). There are 23 additional players signed to minimum contracts.

There are 20 position players and 13 pitchers on the 40-man roster. I will add a starting first baseman, but any additional position players will probably have to bump someone from the current depth chart. I have lots of room to add pitchers.

I have $20 million to spend, now that Sanchez is gone. Ideally, I will spend much less in order to encourage Gordon Cooper to raise next year’s budget. In priority order, my free agency needs are:

1. Starting First Baseman
2. Closer/Setup Reliever(s)
3. Starting Pitcher
4. Future Catcher
5. Second Base upgrade
6. Reserve Outfielder that bats R

That’s a big shopping list for a $20 million budget, so several of those items will need to come from the clearance rack. I will probably wait until after January 1 to bid on any free agents, unless there is a run on first basemen. I would like to get some of the big names off the table and the big bidders out of the game before I jump in. By the way, there are several good first basemen available as free agents, but they were just not in the upper tier of names listed earlier.

The spring training waiver wire will be a valuable asset also. There may be relievers or even bench players on waivers that can make my team. Patience will be valuable in the process. Let’s see if I have acquired any during my sabbatical.

[Orcin]

December 1, 2014

Subject: Rule 5 Draft

I studied the large number of eligible players in my organization, and concluded that none of them were exceptional. I didn’t see a player in the pool with sufficient talent to make a major league roster. I decided to let the chips fall where they may.

We did not take anyone in the draft. We did not lose anyone in the draft.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Jabez54

However ... sigh ... what was his record like for Washington ... 23 wins is really tough to get on the downward swing ... maybe as a fifth starter to share the burden for the top three to rest ... that decision is what I would base on his recent stats ... but I'm sentimental, I may do it ...

Before his season-ending injury, Westaway made 17 starts (118 innings). He was 9-5 with a 3.27 ERA. He had 67 K's and 29 BB, with a 1.22 WHIP. As always, he kept the ball down and in the park, allowing 10 HR.