Orcin Returns

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Most Popular Players:
1. SS Luis Vargas
2. SP Jerome Clark (I don’t understand this one.)
3. SP Edgardo Ordonez
4. CF Bryan McConnell
5. C Duncan Bland

Who's Jeffrey Clyde?

[Orcin]

2016 Federal League Divisional Playoff Series
Louisville Colonels (93-71) vs. San Francisco Seals (101-61)

The Pacific Division champion Seals led the CBA in runs scored at nearly 5 runs per game. They have a balanced lineup with a high team batting average. The pitching is strong at the front of the rotation with two overpowering lefties, and at the back of the bullpen. The Seals were 6-4 vs. Louisville this year, and they were hot at the end of the season.

GAME 1 @ San Francisco: Domingo Lopez (4-5) vs. Bruno Maurin (19-11)

Key Moment: San Francisco CF Peter Springer touched Lopez for a two-run triple in the first and the Seals were off and running. Two more runs scored in the second, and the game was already out of reach against San Francisco ace Bruno Maurin.

Final score: San Francisco 6, Louisville 1
San Francisco leads the series 1-0.

WP: Maurin, LP: Lopez
HR: Wright (SF)
Star of the Game: Bruno Maurin (SF) 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 105p/67s

Other games:
Salt Lake City 1, Milwaukee 0 (Salt Lake City leads series 1-0)
Atlanta 3, New York 2 (Atlanta leads series 1-0)
Cleveland 4, Providence 2 (Cleveland leads series 1-0)

[Orcin]

2016 Federal League Divisional Playoff Series
Louisville Colonels (93-71) vs. San Francisco Seals (101-61)

GAME 2 @ San Francisco: Francisco Longoria (15-13) vs. Jorge Costello (20-12)

Key Moment: Jorge Costello walked out to the mound to start the game.

Final score: San Francisco 4, Louisville 0
San Francisco leads the series 2-0.

WP: Costello, LP: Longoria
HR: Crosby, Ortiz (SF)
Star of the Game: Jorge Costello (SF) 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 5 K, 91p/67s

Other games:
Milwaukee 10, Salt Lake 4 (Series is tied at 1)
New York 4, Atlanta 3 (Series is tied at 1)
Providence 2, Cleveland 1 (Series is tied at 1)

Organization News:
David Cregan, former hitting coach of Orlando’s Class A team in Fort Lauderdale, has accepted our offer of a 5-year contract at $200K per year to be the hitting coach for the Evansville Aces. Cregan’s teams have always been near the top of the league in runs scored, and he will provide excellent support for new manager Duncan Bland.

[Orcin]

2016 Federal League Divisional Playoff Series
Louisville Colonels (93-71) vs. San Francisco Seals (101-61)

GAME 3 @ Louisville: Danny Robertson (16-9) vs. Nathan Graves (18-8)

Key Moment: Louisville led 4-3 in the top of the sixth when San Francisco mounted a serious scoring threat. Salas singled and Bailey doubled, giving the Seals runners on second and third with one out. Graves was ordered to walk Seika Rin to load the bases. Jeff Jennings was summoned quite early in the game to pitch to the left-handed batters in the heart of the Seals order, CF Peter Springer and 1B John Wright. Jennings struck out Springer and Wright grounded weakly to Martinez, ending the inning.

Final score: Louisville 4, San Francisco 3
San Francisco leads the series 2-1.

WP: Graves, LP: Robertson, SV: Flores
HR: Rin, Springer (SF); Castro (LOU)
Star of the Game: Hector Castro (LOU) 2-4, HR, 2 RBI; Jason Harmon 3-3, 2 RS

Other games:
Milwaukee 8, Salt Lake City 7 (Milwaukee leads series 2-1)
Atlanta 2, New York 1 (Atlanta leads series 2-1)
Providence 6, Cleveland 4 [13] (Providence leads series 2-1)

[Orcin]

2016 Federal League Divisional Playoff Series
Louisville Colonels (93-71) vs. San Francisco Seals (101-61)

GAME 4 @ Louisville: Bruno Maurin vs. Michael Bowles (11-10)

Key Moment: The game was scoreless in the top of the seventh. Bowles walked Chris Price with one out. Catcher Manuel Ortiz pulled a tailor-made double play ball right at Gillespie, but the Gold Glove third baseman couldn’t find the handle and everybody was safe. Bowles hit the next batter to load the bases. Salas flied deep to left field, allowing Price to tag up and score the only run of the game.

Final score: San Francisco 1, Louisville 0
San Francisco wins the series 3-1.

WP: Maurin, LP: Bowles, SV: Staten
HR: none
Star of the Game: Bruno Maurin (SF) 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 113p/67s



Other games:
Milwaukee 8, Salt Lake City 7 [12] (Milwaukee wins series 3-1)
New York 7, Atlanta 4 (Series is tied at 2)
Providence 3, Cleveland 2 (Providence wins series 3-1)

Providence scored 1 in the eighth and two in the ninth to pull off the upset over the heavily-favored Rockers. Cleveland was uncertain about bullpen roles all season and that may have cost them in the finale as sometimes-closer and all-star reliever Carlos Pereira (7-2, 2.82, 29 SV) never got into the game. Instead, Pepe Saldana (7-6, 1.97, 17 SV), an electric but inconsistent fire-baller, was charged with the blown save and the loss.

Organization News:
The last remaining coaching vacancy in Evansville was filled when 50-year-old Bill Edgar accepted a five-year contract at $450K to be the pitching coach for new manager Duncan Bland. Edgar is an outstanding pitching coach coming in from the college ranks, and he will be an excellent addition to our player development staff at this key level in the organization. He is highly paid for a Class A coach, but so is our manager. We think this relatively meager investment will pay big dividends down the road.

We still need to hire a pitching coach and a hitting coach for our Rookie League team.

[SurfRat61]

Sorry to see you hit a hot team in the playoffs. Nice job of rebuilding the team though. Hate to see it end on an error from a gold glover. Get 'em next year. Thanks for the read.

[cmdrsam]

Yeah tough break. But you consistently build winners. There will be a series win somewhere.

[Tyke]

Another interesting ride this year, Orcin, well done. Looking forward to seeing the re-building continue next year.

[Orcin]

October 11, 2016

Subject: The Morning After

We were bounced from the post-season in the first round for the second year in a row. This is not the product that Louisville management and fans have come to expect. The serious mid-season injury to Ordonez (11-3 at the time) was a blow, but that won’t be used as an excuse. The pitching and defense were very strong, but we have to find a way to score more runs. Offensive production actually declined this season over last.

There are several issues in play this morning, and they all intertwine. Duncan Bland’s unvested option will release $16M of payroll very soon. It appears that Jose Martinez will not qualify as a super-2 arbitration player. The combination of these two events will provide the budget room needed to sign Francisco Longoria to a long-term contract. Is that the right move for this team at this time? Would the team be stronger with those funds devoted to an offensive superstar instead of a frontline starter? If we do invest in more offense, which current player do we replace? We have five position players over $5M/year in salary already. Do we block another young player with a costly veteran?

There are many decisions to make over the next few weeks, but none are more critical than this one. It starts with Longoria. He will be a free agent by mid-November unless we sign him before the filing date. His free agency does not preclude his return, but we must aggressively pursue him in order to avoid losing him. There will be several suitors for Longoria and Robinson Luna, the only two true aces available this winter. I expect both of these star pitchers to be under contract before the winter meetings open. I also expect the price to be steep. I am not sure an offer under $100M will get it done.

Longoria made 22 starts for us after the trade. He threw 165 innings, an average of 7.5 innings per start. That’s a lot of innings to replace at a 3.39 ERA (120 ERA+). His WAR value for the season was 6.0 but it was slightly higher per start in Sacramento. In fact, all of Longoria’s stats were slightly better as an Outlaw, but half a season is a pretty small sample size. I am confident that he would be a great pitcher (think Westaway) for us over the length of the contract assuming that he continues to be very durable.

Let’s think about the alternate path. Longoria’s departure should yield a compensatory draft pick that will likely be among the top 50. If you recall, my personal mission when I returned to the Colonels was to build a sustaining franchise via the player development system. Can I afford to toss aside a top 50 draft pick? If I retain the $18-20M of payroll that would be dedicated to Longoria for the next several years, I will have the ability to offer arbitration and long-term deals to more of our internally-developed young talent. I will also have a spot in the rotation for a young starting pitcher to develop as Michael Bowles and Domingo Lopez did this year. And, I will have the budget room available to address our primary need, upgrading the offense.

I don’t have much time to make this decision. My career may depend upon getting it right. My “no fire” clause expires one year from today.

[Sal, The Barber]

Naturally, Sal is going to be partial to a guy named Bruno, but let's give credit where credit is due. 16.1 IP and 1 ER. That's showing up in the playoffs!

Clearly, the thing to do for next season is trade for Bruno Maurin.

But Sal has the serious question. Sal was not surprised by Mr. Orcin's first season back at the helm of the Louie-villes. The club was still pretty good, and Mr. Orcin guided them to the playoffs. But year 2, this year, was the big, the serious rebuild year. Yet Mr. Orcin seemed to aggressively go after the playoffs when Sal (and probably many other Louie-ville fans) were expecting mediocre. This was the year Sal was giving Mr. Orcin the pass. But he passed on Sal's pass. Is this because Mr. Orcin is able to have the cake and eat it too? Is Mr. Orcin incapable of tolerating a nonplayoff season? Or did Mr. Orcin need money from a few home playoff games? Did Mr. Orcin need more support from the Louie-villes to get something from the cheap Mr. Cooper? Mr. Orcin's push to the playoffs surprised Sal, and Sal knows that Mr. Orcin is up to something. Hmmm.

Sal also knows that Mr. Orcin traded for Longoria to sign him. Mr. Orcin does not rent players for half a season. He also sweet-talked Duncan Bland into retirement with a gold watch and a manager's job. Shoot! Sal is thinking of retiring. Perhaps you can come talk Sal into it, Mr. Orcin?

[SurfRat61]

Orcin. It may be my opinion only but if you like the kid then I would do whatever it takes to keep Longoria. Maybe sacrifice some sticks to free agency but keep solid pitching and develop hitters, especially if he's an effective innings eater with a low injury rating. To say a Top 50 pick is going to yield Longoria's production, or even come close, is a crap shoot at best. Besides, you're only locked in for one more year. Look at what beat you, solid pitching from Maurin and Costello. One little mistake, and it happened, cost you.
That said, if you're cash strapped then you might not have a choice.
Good luck!

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Is this because Mr. Orcin is able to have the cake and eat it too?

I hope this is the case. The players that were brought in, like Martinez and Graves, are players that would help us get to the playoffs AND help us be contenders in the future.

Personal note: I will be traveling for a couple of days and then I will begin the off-season. Thanks for hanging in there with me.

[Orcin]

2016 POST-SEASON RESULTS



The World Series featured the two best teams in the association. San Francisco rolled through Milwaukee, but New York was taken to seven games by upstart Providence. The Monarchs finally won their first CBA championship, justifying their huge payroll investment and all of the young talent lost in their mid-season trade frenzy.


Louisville Organization News:

• SP Joe Fletcher (9-2, 3.47 ERA, 80 IP, 121 K) was named Rookie League Best Pitcher. Fletcher was our third round draft pick in 2016 out of high school.
• SP Josh MacDonald (17-5, 3.22 ERA) was named AAA Best Pitcher. MacDonald is 27 years old and, like Jerome Clark, is really no longer considered a prospect.

And, as promised, here is a final look at the player card of Duncan Bland. The veteran catcher started three of the four playoff games including a final game at home.

[Orcin]

2016 Game Score = 78

This is my worst score ever. I am not used to getting scores that are barely passing. However, I said that I wanted more challenge out of the game, so the lesson is “be careful what you wish for.” I look forward to turning this around and getting my score back into the high 90’s.



The Colonels were over the 3 million mark in attendance again, and the financials are precisely on plan. In case this report confuses you, as it often does me, I want to point out that nearly $14 million went directly into the pocket of my owner. Red "cash from owner" is actually cash TO owner. That's a good thing.

Gordon Cooper informed me that the 2016 budget will be set at $130 million, which is $2 million lower than last season. Fortunately, I have always targeted my spending at this level, and I have plenty of room for free agents and extensions.

[Jabez54]

Sheesh ... the owner sounded like Frazee ... yike !!!

[Westheim]

As somebody who has gotten plenty of scores between 1 and 2 with this fascinating tool of madness, I can really assure you, that with a 78 you have nothing to complain about.

[Orcin]

November 2, 2016 - The Off-Season Begins

Key dates:
November 12-16 – Award announcements
November 23 – Salary arbitration hearings
November 26 – Eligible players file for free agency
December 1 – “Rule 5” Draft
December 16-20 – Winter Meetings
February 2, 2017 – Preseason begins


Management Carousel Begins
The following CBA personnel were fired after the season.

Federal League:
Los Angeles Vipers (92-71, 5th): GM Bob Barrett
Chicago Cougars (74-88, 10th): GM Antonio Cruz
Seattle Falcons (68-94, 11th): MGR Paul Cain

Patriot League:
Pittsburgh Warriors (82-80, 7th): GM Millard Lawrence
Charleston Generals (80-82, 8th): GM Vincent Johnson
Washington Admirals (76-86, 10th): GM Felipe Perez
Orlando Sharks (76-86, 11th): GM Jaime Perez, MGR Stan Moran
Charlotte Knights (63-99, 15th): MGR Albert Cregan

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Westheim

As somebody who has gotten plenty of scores between 1 and 2 with this fascinating tool of madness, I can really assure you, that with a 78 you have nothing to complain about.

Exactly....I'm waiting for the day I get a -20.

[Orcin]

CBA 2016 Hall of Fame Class

This year’s class features two players that were drafted by and starred for the Louisville Colonels.

3B Jonathan Thomas (1989-2011)
Thomas played for nine different teams and only made the all-star team five times in 19 seasons as a regular player. However, he was a very consistent player that always seemed to be around 25 HR and 100 RBI. He finished with 490 HR (#12 all-time) and 1,562 RBI (#5 all-time). His career WAR of 67 is #15 all-time among position players. Defensively, he was quite versatile and played almost 900 games as a middle infielder.

SP Todd Fletcher (1996-2011)
Todd Fletcher was a six-time all-star and won the Best Pitcher Award in 2001 when he was 24-5 with a 1.72 ERA. He threw two no-hitters, one a perfect game. Fletcher was 213-128 in his career with a 3.44 ERA. His career WAR of 69 is #30 among pitchers.



I traded Fletcher to Charlotte for a young pitcher named Antonio Luna. Fletcher was a lot more expensive, and my budget would not support him. Luna was pretty good, but he won’t make the Hall of Fame. I did a lot of talking to justify the trade at the time, but I now view it as a mistake. I should have found the money to keep Fletcher.

[SurfRat61]

Orcin, to be honest here. My first reaction is "who cares what the game scores your performance." We, the readers (fans) are your scorecard. You put a lot of work into this and saw the year through. There can be only one winner a year. I don't believe an owner pulls out a scorecard and says "ok, let's see...2 points for injuries, -3 cause he didn't tie his shoes..."
Did you put fans in the seats? Yes. Did the owner make a profit? Yes, 13 fold. If I'm the owner, I'm elated with your results. I could care less if the game rates you a 78.
To be honest, in doing mine, I'll consider myself lucky to be above .500 the first year. If the game rates me a 10, so what!
Stick to your plan and don't beat yourself up over a 78. You get 100 in my book!