No Rosters? ... Let's Get to Work.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by CubbyFan23

For some reason the game includes a few guys that aren't really prospects. Mark Teahen?

OOTP uses different criteria than BA to determine who is eligible for the top prospect lists. BA uses rookie eligibility (less than 130 AB or 50 IP in the majors; I think they ignore the service time). In OOTP, anyone who is 25 yrs old and under and who has less than 2 years of MLB service time, is considered eligible for the list. So you should see a lot of sophomore season guys on the OOTP list (which you'd never see on a real BA list). You'll also never see an old prospect on an OOTP list- I mean a guy like Graham Koonce when he had his big season with the A's AAA club at something like 28yrs old and made the BA top 10.

[soxfan34]

What are the big differences with Cubbies roster and AirmenSmith's rosters?

*edited Airmens to AirmenSmith*

[CubbyFan23]

Originally Posted by t-bone shuffle

His speed rating is 56. After watching this kid pretty much every day since he was called up, I can guarantee you that his speed rating should be somewhere between 70 and 80. He'll regularly go from 1st to 3rd with ease and already has a few stand-up triples.

In what is becoming typical of the Astros player development department, during the last two seasons of build-up on this kid, I don't ever recall them mentioning the fact that he's got + speed at the major league level. But it doesn't take very long to see that he absolutely does.

Personally, I'd give him about a 78 speed.

Additionally, his defense should be something above 65. So far, he's making all the plays in the cavernous centerfield at Minute Maid and other than the fact that he occasionally looks tentative and is obviously still adjusting to seeing the ball against the upper decks, he's been very, very good.

For what it's worth.

Absolutely -- I'll take all the advice as possible, especially since I'm not fans of all these teams and you guys see them a lot more than me!

I'll give him a look.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by CubbyFan23

Let the debating begin.

Is that a good idea?- I could debate this stuff all day!

In any case, there are a few guys who seem out of place on the list which leads me to think they're over-rated:

-Greg Miller at 100; he was way down at 17th on BA's list of the Dodgers' Top 30 prospects entering the season, so he shouldn't be close to a top 100 list. He's also walked over 15 guys per 9 innings so far this year with an ERA over 9.00.
-Jose Garcia at no. 47 is another guy who didn't make his team's top 10 list.
-Matt Chico at 67 was only 8th on the Nats, the worst farm system in baseball, and Jesus Flores didn't rank in their top 10.

Guys I would have expected to see in the top 100:
Cameron Maybin DET (should be top 20 easily), Matt Garza MIN, Carlos Gonzalez ARI, Scott Elbert LAD, Bill Rowell BAL, Travis Snider TOR. There are other pitchers I could make a case for (e.g. Luke Hochevar, Carlos Carrasco, Franklin Morales, Troy Patton), but that could be dangerous because of the way OOTP generates its prospect lists; it undervalues pitching, so I think really only elite pitchers should show up on the game list (otherwise pitching will dominate hitting a few years down the line).

Overall it looks quite good, although there are guys higher (Balester at 37) or lower (Verlander at 76) than I'd rate them (of course).

[pseudofool]

I'm Twins fan, so take it for what it's worth, but no Matt Garza? He's a top 10-15 pitching prospect in my mind....

Really nice job. Too bad the list includes so many non-prospect, already MLBers. But the ratings look solid.

[CubbyFan23]

I'm a huge Garza fan as well.

The way it compiles this list absolutely confuses me.

Greg Miller is only a 64 potential rating (out of 80), Garza is a 74. Garza isn't on the list, neither is Maybin (73), Rowell (72)... oh well?

[kckid4u]

I think all the ratings for the Royals players should be bumped up across the board by at least 10 points......Seriously.......why is everyone laughing? Stop it! I'm serious!

Geeze, I was just trying to get them some kind of help. Geeze Louise.

[Scott Vibert]

OOTP may use stats on those lists in addition to ratings.

[czar21]

Off the top of my head--

Verlander is awfully low.

I also have been sorta following Buchholz, he's probably much better than 88-- the kid has been studly in the minors this year and probably will be in Boston by opening day 2008 if not sooner.

[injury log]

I was considering trying to work out OOTP's criteria for the BA lists. I suspect that level has something to do with it- in fictional leagues, it's mostly players in the high minors and majors on the list, and there are rarely many from rookie or A-ball- this may be why Rowell has a tough time cracking the list. That still doesn't explain why Garza is missing and Miller makes it, especially if Garza is more highly rated (and stats don't help there either- Garza blows Miller out of the water). I'd think that age is another factor, and Miller has one year on Garza (looking, e.g. at Billingsley and J Johnson at 38 and 40 in Cubby's list, Johnson looks better in all categories except age- of course there could be other factors as well...).

Still, Miller's Movement Potential looks stratospheric- if he reaches that level, he'll give up 2 HRs a year in OOTP, and he's already done that in less than 30 innings this year in the minors, to go along with his 51 (!) walks.

I agree with czar21- Buchholz will be among the top handful of pitching prospects after Hughes, Lincecum, Gallardo and Bailey graduate- but I wonder if his level counts against him a bit when OOTP makes the list. If I figure anything out, I'll post here.

[AndyK]

I just wanted to comment on Brandon Morrow. I just want to be sure that his endurance is at least 70ish, he was a starter and he projects to be a starter in the majors after this year.

Also, there is no way that Felix Hernandez's stuff is a 72... He's a potential 200k guy just like Hamels and Lincecum. To me, Lincecum's stuff is way too developed.

[I_Got_Wood_34]

I dont think its a good idea to get public opinion on your ratings. Take your best guesses or structure them however you see fit...if you don't you are going to be second guessing thousands of ratings by the tenth decimal to make everybody here happy.

Either way good luck in however you proceed...just a suggestion.

[injury log]

Well, I can confirm these things from some tests-

-age is very important in OOTP's prospect lists. By changing the age of one SP prospect from 17 to 22, he dropped from 3rd on my team's list to off the list entirely;
-level is also a factor. By promoting one pitcher from rookie ball to A ball, he moved up from 2nd to 1st on my team rankings, then moved back down to 2nd when I demoted him;
-Pitcher Endurance is a crucial factor around the 100 level (out of 250), which would be the SP/RP borderline. My test prospect was no. 1 in the org'n with a 100 endurance, and fell to 5th with a 99 endurance.

So we shouldn't expect low-level prospects to be as high on Cubby's lists as they are in real life. Prospects who might be considered old will also be knocked down on OOTP's list.

[soxfan34]

Originally Posted by I_Got_Wood_34

I dont think its a good idea to get public opinion on your ratings. Take your best guesses or structure them however you see fit...if you don't you are going to be second guessing thousands of ratings by the tenth decimal to make everybody here happy.

Either way good luck in however you proceed...just a suggestion.

I agree. Release the set with your best judgement, and people can adjust players individually as they deem necessary.

[CubbyFan23]

Originally Posted by AndyK

I just wanted to comment on Brandon Morrow. I just want to be sure that his endurance is at least 70ish, he was a starter and he projects to be a starter in the majors after this year.

Also, there is no way that Felix Hernandez's stuff is a 72... He's a potential 200k guy just like Hamels and Lincecum. To me, Lincecum's stuff is way too developed.

Before anyone starts suggesting ratings (which I have no problems with) PLEASE see how ratings reflect in the player editor.

Felix right now is only a 60 in stuff. That translates to 179 K in 200 IP.

So a 72 needless to say is more than 200 K's per year. Hamels profiles for 201 K in 200 IP (now) and Lincecum for 235 K in 200 IP (that may be a bit high, but not TOO far off, he does probably need some adjustment in movement and control however).

[CubbyFan23]

Originally Posted by AndyK

I just wanted to comment on Brandon Morrow. I just want to be sure that his endurance is at least 70ish, he was a starter and he projects to be a starter in the majors after this year.

Nice catch on Morrow, he's one of those types that I'm halfway on, and OOTP doesn't reflect very well, in that he could be dominant out of the bullpen, or a solid starter down the line but (at least I don't think, correct me if I'm wrong) certainly not a dominating starter. Guys like Papelbon, Wainwright, etc. are all frustrating in this sense because while they dominate in the bullpen, they are probably 3.50 - 4.00 ERA guys in a rotation, which you can't reflect really without giving them one "set" role or another.

I will make him back to a SP though.

[kagnew35]

Don't wanna nitpick, but aren't there way too many "prospects" that are and have been with major lg clubs, ie hankley ramirez, last years ROY, mccann with braves, are these really still prospects?

[CubbyFan23]

You'll have to ask Markus about that, I have no control over the variables for the top 100.

[BoydOfSummer]

Dang--I'd given up and recently started with Rolen's 1-2-06 roster. I reckon I can start another though.

Interesting tidbit for Reds fans; Aaron Herr has displaced Ed E at third, and it's not even close. He's raking like Eli Whitney.

[kagnew35]

Here are BA's real top 100 for 2007

http://www.soxxcountry.com/forum/vie....php?p=337#337