Suggestions for 23

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Bobbyraz49

I'd like to see a corner outfielder make a catch in foul territory on occasion.

I think this is more an issue with the Project Scoresheet data that OOTP consumes than the OOTP engine itself but yeah, pretty much whenever you see an OF go into foul territory it means that there's going to be an error on the play. That's one 3D-animation thing that can definitely be tweaked.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I didn't address the other two because no offense, they're kind of vague. The 2nd one in particular, what is "appropriate", what are "different levels of talent", and... yeah, that kind of sums it up. For the first one, is the issue that good stealers get caught too often? I can understand how frustrating that is when what should be a big plus for a player seems like a net negative but if we're talking about historical play (which, again, stuff's vague) and you go back far enough, a. people had different ideas as to what constituted a success rate, and b. arguably you needed a lower percentage of success to break even due to the fact that you could force more errors by running a lot.

One thing that'd I'd consider adding is to increase caught stealings on hit and run plays and then figure out a way (I don't have an answer to how) to goose steal rates otherwise. Back when the hit and run was used a lot there were (probably) guys with bad looking percentages (we don't have good CS stats before like 1950) because they were left out to dry on hit and runs a lot. Even going into the 70s and 80s there were a few players on the Indians in the 70s and I specifically remember Will Clark going like 4-21 one season for similar reasons.

I *think* the game could handle that, essentially, by increasing the chances that hit and runs end in missed swings and near-automatic CSes and then just allow the LTM engine to do its job with leaguewide stealing percentages. I *think* that would also have a (possibly small) upward effect on stealing percentages for faster players, as you'd have essentially a baseline rate of getting caught which would result in fewer CSes per total attempts for good players than for bad ones.

Is there a way in the game to check league wide stolen base success rates for steals of 2B vs steals of 3B? I've often wondered if some of the poor success rates for players are due to the AI attempting too many steals of 3B.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Is there a way in the game to check league wide stolen base success rates for steals of 2B vs steals of 3B? I've often wondered if some of the poor success rates for players are due to the AI attempting too many steals of 3B.

Fyi, the developers are aware there is an issue with stolen bases in the historical game. The top base stealers will routinely get caught anywhere from somewhat to a lot more often than they did in real life. League totals will match up because very-low-frequency guys will have better success rates, which we don't even notice. That's because when a guy like Ron Cey or Willie Stargell steals 3-out-of-4 in OOTP, when in real life he got caught 4-out-of-5, it's not - in and of itself - a noteworthy deviation from reality. But multiply that by a whole bunch of low-attempt players, and that's how your league totals even out.

At any rate, it's quite the legit issue in OOTP. I think the last I read on it is that the development team was wondering if the issue might have to do with the frequency & success rate of low attempt players on busted hit-and-run plays, and also pickoffs, and if anyone had any actual data on that. (DW, there may also be something to your question about success, 2b attempts vs 3b attempts.)

If anyone has any data on this stuff and knows where it can be found, please let us know

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I didn't address the other two because no offense, they're kind of vague. The 2nd one in particular, what is "appropriate", what are "different levels of talent", and... yeah, that kind of sums it up. For the first one, is the issue that good stealers get caught too often? I can understand how frustrating that is when what should be a big plus for a player seems like a net negative but if we're talking about historical play (which, again, stuff's vague) and you go back far enough, a. people had different ideas as to what constituted a success rate, and b. arguably you needed a lower percentage of success to break even due to the fact that you could force more errors by running a lot.

One thing that'd I'd consider adding is to increase caught stealings on hit and run plays and then figure out a way (I don't have an answer to how) to goose steal rates otherwise. Back when the hit and run was used a lot there were (probably) guys with bad looking percentages (we don't have good CS stats before like 1950) because they were left out to dry on hit and runs a lot. Even going into the 70s and 80s there were a few players on the Indians in the 70s and I specifically remember Will Clark going like 4-21 one season for similar reasons.

I *think* the game could handle that, essentially, by increasing the chances that hit and runs end in missed swings and near-automatic CSes and then just allow the LTM engine to do its job with leaguewide stealing percentages. I *think* that would also have a (possibly small) upward effect on stealing percentages for faster players, as you'd have essentially a baseline rate of getting caught which would result in fewer CSes per total attempts for good players than for bad ones.

There is nothing vague about the SB percentage problem. Nothing. I submitted a report with analysis of it and it was acknowledged by one of the devs.

There is nothing vague about the distribution of output. This was discussed in the thread where it was acknowledged Real Stats aren't real because they're neutralized against the game's park factors and because high performers aren't rated for their actual HRs which get added to lower performer's output.

If someone complains about OFs not catching foul balls for outs or the game not handling starting pitchers correctly from 1890 to 1893 that will get an "oh yea, we'll work on that". But if a problem with the basic functioning of the game is identified The Establishment shows up and in some fashion denies it's a problem.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by thehef

Fyi, the developers are aware there is an issue with stolen bases in the historical game.

And nothing has happened in the approximately two years since I posted an analysis. AFAIK it hasn't even made the schedule yet.

I can imagine a member of The Establishment saying "It's not a big problem because the league totals are right".

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Brad K

And nothing has happened in the approximately two years since I posted an analysis. AFAIK it hasn't even made the schedule yet.

I can imagine a member of The Establishment saying "It's not a big problem because the league totals are right".

I don't want to speak definitively for the developers, but my understanding is that addressing this is a priority for 23.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by thehef

I don't want to speak definitively for the developers, but my understanding is that addressing this is a priority for 23.

That would be surprising since a member of The Establishment has described the issue as vague.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I have no idea how you’d make the 3rd thing work given the facts of standard distribution and probability,

You missed the memo. The devs know how to allow high performers a chance to reach their HR peaks and have so stated. But they won't because they're wearing the Purity Ring of Randomness. So they've taken HRs from the top performers and given them to lesser players. And the file that does that is called... are you ready?... Real Stats!!!

There was also a statement made - not refuted by the devs - that HR ratings of suspected PED users are reduced. Really. Apparently true, so what we have is not a sim of baseball but a sim of what a few people think baseball should have been.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Is there a way in the game to check league wide stolen base success rates for steals of 2B vs steals of 3B? I've often wondered if some of the poor success rates for players are due to the AI attempting too many steals of 3B.

That should be an easy answer but it probably isn't. It has become obvious to me best practices of documentation aren't present here. That's why when a dev answers a question it's often prefaced by things like "if I remember correctly" or "I can't swear to this but I think".

Further evidence is the poor state of the user manual. Things get changed there not when the change in the game occurs but when, often years later, users point out the game doesn't work as the manual says.

When a change in the game is made, even experimental, that should be entered in the documentation. And if it doesn't work and is changed back then the the documentation should be reverted to the original. This is clearly not happening.

With proper documentation people wouldn't have to run tests to answer your question. The answer would be available in a few minutes by examining the documentation describing programming and programming changes.

OOTP is a great game. There's no need to pretend it's perfect. Pretending it's perfect is much worse than admitting it isn't.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Brad K

That would be surprising since a member of The Establishment has described the issue as vague.

I’m a member of the Establishment now? Wait until I tell the family!

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Brad K

That would be surprising since a member of The Establishment has described the issue as vague.

Not sure who your establishment source is, but my source is pretty reliable. So once all is said and done, I hope it's me being able to say "I told you so" rather than the other way around

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Brad K

You missed the memo. The devs know how to allow high performers a chance to reach their HR peaks and have so stated. But they won't because they're wearing the Purity Ring of Randomness. So they've taken HRs from the top performers and given them to lesser players. And the file that does that is called... are you ready?... Real Stats!!!

There was also a statement made - not refuted by the devs - that HR ratings of suspected PED users are reduced. Really. Apparently true, so what we have is not a sim of baseball but a sim of what a few people think baseball should have been.

If you’re doing the Maris argument, we’ve had this before. Lots of people do not agree that this is a thing that needs to be addressed. Frankly, I agree with the devs - Roger Maris probably shouldn’t hit 61 HRs on average if normal distribution on HRs means he’s as likely to hit 70 as 50. In a replay, Maris himself is probably not likely to be the guy to break Ruth’s record… but it could be Aaron or Mays or Mantle or any number of guys who hit a lot of them but didn’t quite get as HR lucky as Maris did IRL in 1961. And TBH the stat head in me gets waaaay more bothered when I see a guy like Maris hit 75 HRs than when I see him hit 36 in 1961…

I haven’t heard anything about suspected PED users and I’m curious as to how you think they’re lowered. Is there a secret table of BBRef IDs that get hammered? I’d love to see the actual quote on that, actually, as quite frankly it sounds ridiculous.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Brad K

That should be an easy answer but it probably isn't. It has become obvious to me best practices of documentation aren't present here. That's why when a dev answers a question it's often prefaced by things like "if I remember correctly" or "I can't swear to this but I think".

Further evidence is the poor state of the user manual. Things get changed there not when the change in the game occurs but when, often years later, users point out the game doesn't work as the manual says.

When a change in the game is made, even experimental, that should be entered in the documentation. And if it doesn't work and is changed back then the the documentation should be reverted to the original. This is clearly not happening.

With proper documentation people wouldn't have to run tests to answer your question. The answer would be available in a few minutes by examining the documentation describing programming and programming changes.

OOTP is a great game. There's no need to pretend it's perfect. Pretending it's perfect is much worse than admitting it isn't.

I’d definitely like to see the game track the different kinds of steals and, frankly, incorporate them into LTMs.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by thehef

Not sure who your establishment source is, but my source is pretty reliable. So once all is said and done, I hope it's me being able to say "I told you so" rather than the other way around

My source in The Establishment is right here. Perhaps he's misinformed. Y'know, the knee jerk thing of honor all threats.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

If you’re doing the Maris argument, we’ve had this before. Lots of people do not agree that this is a thing that needs to be addressed. Frankly, I agree with the devs - Roger Maris probably shouldn’t hit 61 HRs on average if normal distribution on HRs means he’s as likely to hit 70 as 50. In a replay, Maris himself is probably not likely to be the guy to break Ruth’s record… but it could be Aaron or Mays or Mantle or any number of guys who hit a lot of them but didn’t quite get as HR lucky as Maris did IRL in 1961. And TBH the stat head in me gets waaaay more bothered when I see a guy like Maris hit 75 HRs than when I see him hit 36 in 1961…

I haven’t heard anything about suspected PED users and I’m curious as to how you think they’re lowered. Is there a secret table of BBRef IDs that get hammered? I’d love to see the actual quote on that, actually, as quite frankly it sounds ridiculous.

It's in the same thread and obviously you were there. Apparently it did not make the impression on you that it should have.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I’m a member of the Establishment now? Wait until I tell the family!

Wow, you're part of The Family too?

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

If you’re doing the Maris argument, we’ve had this before. Lots of people do not agree that this is a thing that needs to be addressed. Frankly, I agree with the devs - Roger Maris probably shouldn’t hit 61 HRs on average if normal distribution on HRs means he’s as likely to hit 70 as 50.

He doesn't have to be as likely to hit 70 as 50. The devs rejected a solution where he had a chance to hit 61 in favor of one where he could never hit 61.

At the same time they'll let Norm Cash hit .385 and let Richie Hebner hit 37 home runs, twice, and 31 at age 34, and let Bob Veale be the career ERA leader (game started in 1951). But no hypocrites here, no, none at all.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I’d definitely like to see the game track the different kinds of steals and, frankly, incorporate them into LTMs.

But you don't care they can't answer questions due to lack of documentation?

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Brad K

My source in The Establishment is right here. Perhaps he's misinformed. Y'know, the knee jerk thing of honor all threats.

I don't believe your source is on the beta team, while my source is higher than that. (That said, I don't have anything definitive on whether it the issue will be addressed, only that from what I'm aware, I think there will be a good faith effort to address it.) Let's hope!!!

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by thehef

I don't believe your source is on the beta team, while my source is higher than that.

He said he once was so that seems to be right. But for some reason he hasn't adapted to being a regular consumer, instead continuing to deflect, deny, and obfuscate about any serious issue.

Concerning others, I remember having to ask multiple times and finally beat people over the head with irrefutable facts to finally get a statement that Real Stats aren't real. And I still haven't seen an answer concerning what park factors are used to neutralize Neutralized Stats. If it's something other than the game's park factors then we have no correct database.

These are the kinds of relevant question The Establishment tries to get rid of because they're too uncomfortable to answer. And they've been successful. As seen in this thread people think the priority improvements are things like a visual depiction of a corner outfielder catching a fly in foul ground.

I suppose these are the same people who criticize a kid with a ground shaking sound system in a car with bald tires without seeing they're doing the same.