Orcin Returns

[Orcin]

October 11, 2015

Subject: The Morning After

The series with the Vipers highlighted two major problems to address in the off-season: bullpen upgrades and more power. In addition, it became clear that our starting rotation, while adequate for the regular season, lacks the dominant starter(s) to propel a team to a long post-season run.

Despite these weaknesses, I am pleased with the results of this first season back on the job. I think that the club has evolved from a thin roster with gluts at some positions and big holes at others to a more balanced team with better depth. The star power is there too, but injuries took some premium talent off the field for extended periods this season.

The budget is another major issue facing the club this off-season. I accomplished my goal of operating at a profit for 2015. The preliminary numbers show a surplus of $16 million. I expect Gordon Cooper to react with a budget increase for 2016 but I will stay under my own $100 million limit for player salaries to ensure another profitable year.

The strategy of allowing players with 2-3 years of service to become arbitration-eligible puts some pressure on that budget. Gillespie and Spencer, in particular, will command salaries that make me consider what they are really worth. I think about these decisions in an unemotional way. I crunch the numbers.

My goal is to pay $1.5M per point of WAR (wins above replacement) or less. My $100M payroll needs to produce 100 wins. I use 45 wins as the replacement level and $18M (40 players x the minimum salary of $450K) as the replacement player payroll. So I need to produce 55 wins with the other $82M ($82M/55=$1.5M/WAR).

I was very lucky with Rafael Valdez in 2015. He had his best season in several years and played 131 games. Valdez turned in a 5.3 WAR for $15.25M ($2.9M per WAR) this year. He will make $17 million next year and $19 million in 2017. What are the odds that Valdez doubles his performance next year?

Gillespie produced 6 WAR. I will pay $1.2M/WAR if he repeats that level of production next year and is paid the $7M arbitration estimate. Spencer’s $5M arbitration estimate and 3.4 WAR calculate to $1.4M/WAR. Bryan McConnell, who I deemed worthy of a long-term extension this year, produced at a $1.5M/WAR level despite a lengthy injury.

I am $15M over budget for next year as it stands now. Given the circumstances, I can’t afford to pay Valdez $3M/WAR and hope for an even more productive season from an injury-prone player nearing 30. The problem is how to produce more power after trading Valdez and his 22 home runs. That’s why I get paid the big bucks.

[Westheim]

Maybe Mr. Cooper should consider cutting Mr. Orcin's "big bucks" in half, so the team can make do with $1.75M/WAR

[Jabez54]

Seriously ... with a 95-67 record, the team did very well ... It just wasn't meant to be ... even with the same core ... possibly with less injuries during the next season, I would bet the outcome would be a different story ... just don't become a Steinbrenner ...

[Orcin]

2015 POST-SEASON RESULTS



The World Series featured two historically strong franchises. The Houston Stars have 14 playoff appearances and one championship. The Baltimore Robins have been in the post-season 10 times, winning the title on four occasions. Houston won the 2015 title, as their exceptional pitching staff shut down three of the best offenses in the CBA.


Louisville Organization News:

• SP Domingo Lopez (15-6, 2.47 ERA) was named AAA Best Pitcher over teammate Michael Bowles (14-8, 2.99). Both guys could be in Louisville’s rotation next season.
• Dayton RF Dennis Bennett (.333, 21 HR, 59 RBI in 60 games) won the AA MVP award. Bennett was promoted to AAA in July and hit .342 in 60 games there.
• Dayton SP Elliot Phillips (15-4, 2.94) won the AA Best Pitcher award. Phillips, signed to a minor league contract in April, is 25 and not considered a top prospect.
• Evansville LF Roberto Lopez (.296, 13 HR, 68 RBI) was named MVP in Class-A. The 21-year-old (2012 draft pick out of high school) will move up to AA next season.
• Reliever Andy Penfold (24, throws R) was claimed off waivers from Orlando. He is a former #1 draft pick that has done well at AAA and has two options remaining.
• Veteran catcher Chuck Haines was waived to make room for Penfold on the 40-man roster.


CBA League News:

The Continental Baseball Association announced that the Outstanding Player award will now be called the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award. The Outstanding Pitcher award will be changed to the Best Pitcher (BP) award. There was an overwhelming demand from sportswriters for the change because the award names could not be abbreviated (as OP) without some confusion. There was support for naming the Best Pitcher award after legendary SP Jorge Figueroa, but the CBA top brass apparently did not agree.

Finally, there is a sad news item as a former #1 draft pick had a promising career cut short. San Francisco confirmed that 24-year-old SS Manny Gonzalez will retire. The 2014 All-Star was unable to recover from a broken elbow that he suffered last May.

[Orcin]

2015 Game Score = 97

That’s a pretty good score for a GM that finished second and got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. I believe the high score is a result of the modest expectations of my owner and the financial profit.




The Colonels went back over the 3 million mark in attendance, and the financials turned positive again. You can see from the two-year comparison above that the player payroll was reduced while the investments in scouting and player development were increased. This long-term view will continue. I still have two years of my “cannot be fired” clause.

Gordon Cooper informed me that the 2016 budget will be set at $132 million, $2 million higher than last season. Frankly, I expected a larger bump after generating a $16 million profit for him. Gordon punished me further by eliminating all international scouting and reducing domestic scouting to the league minimum (for now). He is also forbids contract extensions and I have only $2 million to spend on free agents.

Clearly, the budget is my first and highest priority heading into the off-season.

[Orcin]

November 2, 2015 - The Off-Season Begins

Key dates:
November 12-16 – Award announcements
November 23 – Salary arbitration hearings
November 26 – Eligible players file for free agency
December 1 – “Rule 5” Draft
December 16-20 – Winter Meetings
February 4, 2016 – Preseason begins


League News

The Denver Miners have been sold to business entrepreneur Jim Cooper (no relation to our own Gordon Cooper or Boston owner Vic Cooper Jr.). Jim Cooper is described by associates as understanding and an economizer on budget issues.


Management Carousel Begins
The following CBA personnel were fired (or retired) after the season.

Federal League:
Los Angeles Vipers (96-66, t-1st): MGR Pat Graham (contract dispute)
Denver Miners (76-86, t-10th): GM Jaime Perez
Dallas Rattlers (76-86, t-10th): MGR Ramon Cruz
San Francisco Seals (73-89, 13th): MGR Tim Clark
St. Louis Hawks (60-102, 15th): GM Orlando Flores, interim MGR Geoffrey Phillips

Patriot League:
Baltimore Robins (98-64, 2nd): MGR Tommy Evans (contract dispute)
Washington Admirals (91-71, 4th): MGR Phil Wilson (retired)
Detroit Titans (87-75, 5th): GM Lorenzo Morin, MGR Thomas Smith
Orlando Sharks (86-76, 7th): GM James Matthews (retired)
Atlanta Flames (74-88, 9th): GM Vicente Barrera, MGR Steve Coleman (retired)
Nashville Tigers (70-92, 13th): GM Antonio Gutierrez, MGR Carlos Delorosa
Charlotte Knights (61-101, 15th): MGR Matt Bader

[Orcin]

CBA 2015 Hall of Fame Class

CL Rafael “Gadget” Salinas (1992-2010)
Salinas is #3 all-time with 556 saves. He appeared in 1284 games, pitching 1458 innings, with a 2.23 career ERA. Salinas spent the prime of his career in Philadelphia. He made the All-Star team 9 times.

SP Ronald Austin (1991-2010)
Austin finished with a 269-146 record and a career 2.84 ERA. He ranks 4th all-time in wins, 11th in winning percentage, and 15th in innings pitched. He was named Best Pitcher twice and made 11 all-star teams. Austin spent his prime years with the Dallas Rattlers.

SP Jorge “Matchbox” Figueroa (1990-2008)
If there was a special wing in the HOF for elite players, Figueroa’s bust would be in the middle of that room with a big spotlight on it. He is undoubtedly the best pitcher ever to don a CBA uniform. Figueroa was named Patriot League Best Pitcher ELEVEN times and was a 14-time all-star. He has a statue in front of the Ballpark of Baltimore.

Figueroa holds season records for ERA (1.24), wins (26), strikeouts (347), WHIP (0.77), and WAR (15.0). He holds career records for wins (345), innings pitched (4689), strikeouts (5028), and WAR (an incredible 197.1). He won 20 or more games 11 times and had a sub-2.00 ERA in 9 seasons. I could go on, but instead I will put that player card up one last time. In a word… awesome!

[gehrig38]

The '97 to 2003 run is pretty much stuff of legend right? 7 years of, not being the best, but 7 years of basically Pedro's '99-'00 season... Man would that be cool.

[Orcin]

The closest long run of excellence that I could find in real life, outside of the Deadball Era, is this guy. His string is not all sub-2.00 ERA, but still pretty darn good. The only mediocre (by comparison) year is 1974, and he still had a 1.16 WHIP and 200 K's.

[Orcin]

First Day of the Off-Season

The following items are on my “To Do” list today.
• Address open personnel positions
• Make decision to exercise or decline team options
• Offer arbitration (or not) to potential free agents
• Submit arbitration offers to eligible players or decide not to tender them
• Consider offers to potential free agents, including minor league free agents

Budget Considerations

The budget is $132 million. I need $25 million for operating expenses, leaving $107 million to cover player and personnel salaries. Using current arbitration estimates, I have roughly $120 million committed for next year without signing any free agents (including my own). This is what GM’s call a “problem”.

I will save you the long and boring analysis – somebody expensive has to go and there are not many candidates. The three highest paid players for 2016 are CF Rafael Valdez ($17M), SP Edgardo Ordonez ($14M), and C Duncan Bland ($13M). It has to be one of these three in order to close the budget gap with the least overall damage.

Bland is the easy choice, except that he has 10/5 rights and will not waive them for a trade. Ordonez was injured for half of last season and his value is not at its peak, plus I don’t have enough confidence in the starting rotation to let a potential ace go.

Valdez had a healthy and productive year so his value is as high as it will ever be, plus we have several good replacements in the system. I don’t like to dump one of the best players in the history of the franchise, especially considering that I traded for him as a teenager, but he is the obvious choice to sacrifice on the altar of owner Gordon Cooper.

Next: Roster analysis

[Orcin]

Preliminary 2016 Planning: Roster Analysis and Depth Chart

The road map for next season’s roster follows. The season recap is only a few posts back, so I will focus on the depth chart as I see it without repeating their 2015 stats.

Starting Pitchers

Juan Rodriguez and late-season addition Pippino Franchitti will be free agents, but the remaining starters on the 40-man roster are either signed or under club control. The projected rotation is Ordonez, Trauttmann, Spencer, Mazzone, and Gentry. Rookies Michael Bowles and Domingo Lopez will replace Rodriguez and Franchitti on the roster, but they will have to win a rotation job in spring training to avoid another year in AAA. I wouldn’t be opposed to one or two of the veteran starters pitching out of the bullpen to start the season as a way to make room for the rookies.

Bullpen

Brooks is a sure thing as the closer. Castaneda was the second-best reliever in a mediocre bullpen, but he is a free agent. Merced and Carlson will have jobs for next year, and there are several good candidates for the remaining spots. The competition will be interesting. Even though it was an obvious weakness last year, I won’t divert huge budget dollars to the bullpen during this off-season. I think the young talent that we already have will mature and solve the problem in due time. I would really like to find one more veteran with a live arm (i.e. strikeout stuff) that could help finish games and pitch in high leverage situations. I think the kids can handle the rest, although I still don’t have a left-hander that instills confidence.

Catcher

Gary Arkle had a great year and looks certain to be at least the better half of a platoon. Duncan Bland was ok as the backup and will return for a 14th season (all with us). The third catcher spot will go to a free agent or waiver claim next spring. The best prospect is 21-year-old Lee Hargrove, who was signed as a free agent and spent last season in AA. Hargrove is probably still a year away from replacing Bland as the backup. Veteran backup Chuck Haines will be waived to make room for Hargrove on the 40-man roster. Bland has a 2017 vesting option, and the requirements (480 PA) will not be met. If he doesn’t retire, we will have a situation on our hands. That’s a problem for another day.

First Base

Mike Guy is a free agent and will not be offered a contract at age 34. Frank Carson is the best first baseman on the roster if McConnell is considered an outfielder and Shane Plumbly is considered a utility man. I am not sold on Carson, but I don’t want to give up on him either. This would be the ideal place to add a power hitter from the left side but that will probably require more money than I can allocate. The most obvious solution is to move McConnell to first base and fill the left field job with one of our own prospects.

Second Base

Lance Morrison, Jason Searles, and Shane Plumbly will battle for the starting job and the backup middle infielder spot. This is one of the easiest decisions that I have.

Third Base

Phil Gillespie is going to be very expensive in arbitration (~$7M). I am still not fully sold on him. He does not walk enough and his low on-base percentage diminishes the value of his contact and speed. His power is good, but not spectacular for a corner infielder. Jason Sykes had a nice year at AAA. He is a right-handed version of Frank Carson, but I don’t have roster room for both of them and Sykes is out of options. Carson can play third base reasonably well, but Sykes can also play center field. The deciding factor is probably Carson’s .348/.407/.826 stat line as a pinch-hitter.

Shortstop

Luis Vargas had a great half-season and spent the other half on the disabled list. We need him to stay healthy next year. Searles is a good backup but he can’t be expected to replace an all-star leadoff man. I still need more depth at the middle infield spots. The organization has no real prospects and it is very hard to trade for young shortstops.

Outfield

Valdez has to go, but fortunately I have a great prospect, Juan Diaz, in the wings. I will play Diaz in center field this season and find out what I have. Prospect Norberto Garcia struggled at AAA last year, but I want him to be the backup center fielder. If I have to bat the center fielder eighth all season, so be it. At least we will have exceptional defense.

Assuming that McConnell moves to first base, which is the most logical thing to do given the copious outfield talent that exists in our organization, two left-handed hitting corner outfielders will be chosen from among many candidates. Brian Ferguson and Joe Young will face stiff competition from AAA MVP Dennis Bennett and prospect Hector Castro. First baseman Frank Carson is also in this mix if McConnell plays left field.

[gehrig38]

Originally Posted by Orcin

The closest long run of excellence that I could find in real life, outside of the Deadball Era, is this guy. His string is not all sub-2.00 ERA, but still pretty darn good. The only mediocre (by comparison) year is 1974, and he still had a 1.16 WHIP and 200 K's.

Problem is it's not even close. Look at Figueroa's ERA+, and compare.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by gehrig38

Problem is it's not even close. Look at Figueroa's ERA+, and compare.

Yeah, you're right. The ERA+ really tells the story, showing that Figueroa is so much better than his league.

[Orcin]

First Day of the Off-Season

Task 1: Fill open personnel positions

The Indianapolis Indians fired their bench coach Rafael Gutierrez. Back in my first life, he was the legendary pitching coach of the Dallas Rattlers. The 54-year-old coach is an outstanding communicator with rookies and veterans alike, making him perfect for our AAA job. He wanted a 1-year deal at $310K. I offered a five-year contract at $350K, hoping to entice him to our organization.

In case you are wondering, Robert Westaway is very happy playing golf and has no interest in coaching at the moment. We hope that he will reconsider in the future.

I did not find the perfect candidate for the AAA hitting coach position, so I did the right thing and promoted veteran coach Silas Campbell from Evansville to Lexington. He has been the hitting coach at Evansville since his retirement in 2006. Some new fans might not know that Silas Campbell is one of the top 2 or 3 position players in the history of the Colonels franchise. We drafted Campbell in the first round of the 1989 draft, and he is still with our organization. He is very popular with our fans to this day, and the young players idolize him.

I offered the Evansville (A) hitting coach position to former AA hitting coach Toby Simmons on a one-year contract. There are a lot of expiring contracts below AAA after next season, so we will have work to do late next summer.


Task 2: Make decision to exercise or decline team options

There were no team options to exercise.


Task 3: Offer arbitration (or not) to potential free agents

The following potential free agents are not compensation eligible, and will not be offered arbitration:
• SP Pippino Franchitti
• SP Juan Rodriguez
• MR Salvador Castaneda
• C Chuck Haines
• 1B Mike Guy
• RF Ray Banks

I would love to have Franchitti back as rotation insurance because he has minor league options remaining. However, I don’t have the budget room yet.

[Orcin]

First Day of the Off-Season (continued)

Task 4: Submit arbitration offers to eligible players or “no-tender” them

There are nine players eligible for arbitration, and all of them will receive offers unless we can agree on contract extensions first.

3B Phil Gillespie has a $7.15M estimate attached to his name. He is a super-2 player and still has three more seasons before he can become a free agent. We have already seen that his production from last season justifies his arbitration estimate, especially the 55 stolen bases and excellent defense.

SP Will Spencer was having a career year before a torn rotator cuff ended his season. His arbitration estimate of nearly $6M is way out of line in my opinion, but he refuses to negotiate with me on a long-term contract. I am forced to make an offer slightly above the estimate in order to mitigate my risk. This is his last year of arbitration and I have to make a decision on the long-term plan for this 30-year-old pitcher.

C Gary Arkle came on strong at the end of the season and pulled his estimate up to nearly $5M. He only has one more year under club control after this one. He is a great candidate for a long-term contract, but his demands are unreasonable.

SP Ben Gentry had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow in June. He was looking like a solid mid-rotation pitcher before the injury, and I will ante the $2.8M estimate to see if he can bounce back from the surgery at age 29.

SP Edison Mazzone was signed as replacement for Edgardo Ordonez in early April. I never expected him to go 14-7 with a 3.18 ERA. The $2.6M estimate is a no-brainer for a 27-year-old lefthander coming off a season like that. Let’s see if he can do it again.

The rest of these players are easy decisions at the estimate (shown in parenthesis).

1B Frank Carson ($1.8M) will be a backup infielder at least, and might still be the starter at first base.

2B Lance Morrison ($1.3M) will probably be the starting second baseman.

2B Shane Plumbly ($800K) might be a good utility infielder and bats left-handed.

MR Bruce Irvine ($700K) is the best left-handed reliever on the roster. That’s not saying much.

[Orcin]

First Day of the Off-Season (conclusion)

Task 5: Make offers to potential free agents, including minor leaguers

We have six players from the 40-man roster (see list for task 3) that will file for free agency. I am not in a position to offer contracts to any of them now due to budget constraints. It is probably for the best that I must open six roster spots for younger players.

There are 14 potential minor league free agents. I offered them minor league contracts first. This delays a decision on moving them to the secondary (40-man) roster if they are Rule 5 eligible or releasing them if they block legitimate prospects.

Ray Alexander (5-6, 2.77 ERA at AAA) is one of the players that we offered a minor league contract. He appears willing to accept it and continue his attempt to get back into the majors. Alexander will be 37 years old next June.

[Orcin]

November 8, 2015 (BNN)

Subject: Colonels, Falcons Agree To Swap

It is being reported in Seattle that the Falcons and Louisville Colonels have agreed on a trade. According to anonymous sources 23-year-old minor league right fielder Jeremy Fisher and 20-year-old minor league closer Ray Forrest will be dealt to the Colonels in return for 29-year-old center fielder Rafael Valdéz, 25-year-old third baseman Jason Sykes and 29-year-old minor league shortstop Bernardo Casas.

In his 819-game career Valdéz has hit .294 with 878 hits, 164 home runs, and 523 RBIs and has scored 533 runs. Valdéz has a history of injuries, having only played more than 140 games once in seven major league seasons. Louisville fan reaction to the trade of Valdéz was quite negative (BNN fan interest poll number dropped from 90 to 84).

The Falcons also receive third baseman Jason Sykes, who is expected to start for them after escaping the shadow of all-star Phil Gillespie in Louisville. Sykes had a good year in AAA, but he is out of options and would have been a long shot to make the Colonels active roster next spring.

The Colonels receive much-needed budget room in the deal, plus two good prospects. Valdéz might have been worth two prospects without the addition of Sykes in the deal, but sources tell BNN that Seattle needed extra inducement to part with these particular prospects.

Fisher is the #98 prospect in the CBA after being selected by the Falcons in the second round of the 2014 draft out of University of Miami (FL). Fisher, a right-handed batter with exceptional power, has risen rapidly through the minors and is expected to start in AAA next season.

Forrest is a right-handed prototypical closer. He throws hard with a nasty slider that generates a lot of groundballs. He was selected out of high school by the Falcons in the fourth round of that same 2014 draft. Forrest pitched in AA last season and recorded 39 saves. He will likely begin next season in AAA as the closer for Lexington.

[Orcin]

2015 CBA Post-Season Awards

Most Valuable Player:
Patriot – 1B Will Walker, Washington Admirals (.335/.431/.639, 38 HR, 100 RBI)
Federal – 1B Jose Martinez, San Diego Stallions (.279/.354/.567, 43 HR, 102 RBI)

Best Pitcher:
Patriot – SP Bob MacGregor, Baltimore Robins (20-6, 3.17 ERA, 194 K’s)
Federal – SP John Brown, Los Angeles Vipers (20-8, 2.34 ERA, 185 Ks)

Rookie of the Year:
Patriot – LF Robby Rucker, Philadelphia Firebirds (.346/.408/.540, 15 HR, 71 RBI)
Federal – C Bill Watson, Chicago Cougars (.282/.356/.444, 11 HR, 53 RBI)

Manager of the Year:
Patriot – Howard Mick, Charleston Generals (100-62)
Federal – Al Emerson, Chicago Cougars (96-66)

Gold Glove:
3B Phil Gillespie, Louisville Colonels (his first GG)


Off-Season Center

11/11/2015: LOU 3B Phil Gillespie signed a 1-year contract extension at $7 million, thus avoiding arbitration. Fan reaction was positive and fan interest increased from 84 to 87.

11/13/2015: LOU announced that Rafael Gutierrez has signed a 5-year contract to be the pitching coach at their AAA affiliate in Lexington.

11/15/2015: LOU claimed 24 y/o right-handed reliever Reginald Smith (2015: 2-4, 1.95 ERA, 15 SV at AAA) off waivers from NY.

11/19/2015: Sacramento traded 26 y/o C Tsutomo Kubo to Baltimore for 30 y/o SP Phil Hill. Kubo was originally drafted by Baltimore and has come full circle after brief stays in Louisville and Sacramento.


Note: Updates might be a bit sporadic this week. I have some guests in town and I will be pretty busy away from the keyboard.

[Orcin]

November 23, 2015 (BNN)

Subject: CBA Arbitration Hearings

Who will win… the players or the owners? That age-old question comes to a head again today as Continental Baseball Association commences salary arbitration hearings. Players who have been unable to secure a new contract with their clubs will soon learn whether their salary claims will be accepted or rejected by the independent arbitrators. There will undoubtedly be a mix of happy and sad faces tomorrow, when the final decisions will be announced.

Salary Arbitration Decisions in Favor of the Louisville Colonels:
• SP Ben Gentry was awarded $2,800,000. The player demanded $3,367,000.
• 1B Frank Carson was awarded $1,600,000. The player demanded $2,500,000.
• 2B Lance Morrison was awarded $1,200,000. The player demanded $1,875,000.
• 2B Shane Plumbly was awarded $800,000. The player demanded $1,125,000.
• MR Bruce Irvine was awarded $700,000. The player demanded $1,125,000.

Salary Arbitration Decisions Against the Louisville Colonels:
• SP Will Spencer was awarded $6,366,250. The team had offered $6,000,000 (the estimate was $5,775,000.)
• C Gary Arkle was awarded $6,250,000. The team had offered $5,000,000 (same as the estimate).
• SP Edison Mazzone was awarded $2,600,000. The team had offered $2,600,000. (I guess ties go to the player.)

Will Spencer was paid $800K last season. He had a good year, but he is coming off surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff. He will be a free agent after this season, and I am not sure his value to me will ever be equal to his expectations. There are many teams that need starting pitching, and I will explore trades for him during the Winter Meetings.

Arkle was overpaid in my opinion, but we basically just paid a premium to see another season before committing to a long-term deal at a critical position so no harm done.

[Jabez54]

I forgot to ask you of the last time ... what was the lowest BAvr for the MVP ...