Phillies sign Lieber - Page 2

Luis_Rivera · 12-08-2004, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

Everything you said about Wright could really be applied to Lieber (with some names changed), except that Lieber is five years older. Again, given the choice between signing Lieber for 3 years at $7 million per year, and offering the same contract to Wright, why would you pick Lieber?

My point is that Leiber is more of a known commodity. You're taking a huge risk with Jaret Wright. Again multi-year deals based on ONE year is a risky business and if I'm a Yankee fan, I don't like that committment to uncertainty.

Throw in the Mozzone factor and I'm a little less confident that Wright will be able to perform up to the standards of the contract given. Read that article... it's pretty good at showing exactly what has happened in Atlanta under Mozzone with guys exactly like Jaret Wright.

I use this same logic with guys like Pavano... I'd take Pavano on my team any day of the week. However, the contract he's going to get this year is pretty much based on 2004, a year that is not at all in line with his career numbers. Hence, I'm suspicious of his ability to perform up to the standards of the contract he will likely recieve.

mlyons · 12-08-2004, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

My point is that Leiber is more of a known commodity.

Again, I don't understand how someone who's appeared in 27 games in the last two years can be considered a known commodity. Aren't you basing a multi-year deal on one decent season in Lieber's case as well?

SoxWin · 12-08-2004, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

Again, I don't understand how someone who's appeared in 27 games in the last two years can be considered a known commodity. Aren't you basing a multi-year deal on one decent season in Lieber's case as well?

No.

Since 1997 (take away the year missed for TJ surgery) Leiber has been at worst a league average pitcher. He's not great, but he's consisent.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/liebejo01.shtml

He's averaged 40 bb's and 150 k's per season (208 IP)

Wright on the other hand walks 1 guy for every 2 he k's in the NL. He has more upside, but I'd want to see another year like last before giving him more then 1 year guaranteed.

Add in the Mazzone factor (and now lack thereof) and I'm not optimistic about about Wright's future success. Actually, I suppose as a Red Sox fan I really should be.....

Luis_Rivera · 12-08-2004, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoxWin

No.

Since 1997 (take away the year missed for TJ surgery) Leiber has been at worst a league average pitcher. He's not great, but he's consisent.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/liebejo01.shtml

He's averaged 40 bb's and 150 k's per season (208 IP)

Wright on the other hand walks 1 guy for every 2 he k's in the NL. He has more upside, but I'd want to see another year like last before giving him more then 1 year guaranteed.

Add in the Mazzone factor (and now lack thereof) and I'm not optimistic about about Wright's future success. Actually, I suppose as a Red Sox fan I really should be.....

Articulated everything I'm thinking very well. Thanks Rich.

SoxWin · 12-08-2004, 08:08 PM

:d

disposableheros · 12-08-2004, 08:20 PM

jaret had a pretty bad drug problem (does it ever really go away?), injury history, bad attitude, and now the pressure of pinstripes. my expectations are pretty low.

lieber had major inj, older, but already dealt with pressure of pinstripes. my expectations are pretty low.

lieber/wright - half a dozen of one, six of the other. i would have liked to see either guy at a 1 or 2 year deal.

mlyons · 12-08-2004, 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoxWin

No.

Since 1997 (take away the year missed for TJ surgery) Leiber has been at worst a league average pitcher. He's not great, but he's consisent.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/liebejo01.shtml

He's averaged 40 bb's and 150 k's per season (208 IP)

Wright on the other hand walks 1 guy for every 2 he k's in the NL. He has more upside, but I'd want to see another year like last before giving him more then 1 year guaranteed.

Add in the Mazzone factor (and now lack thereof) and I'm not optimistic about about Wright's future success. Actually, I suppose as a Red Sox fan I really should be.....

I guess we'll have to disagree here. I know Tommy John surgery's pretty amazing, but I still worry about anyone who misses more than a full season due to injury. Anything that happened before then I take with as big a grain of salt as you take Wright's pre-2000 numbers.

SoxWin · 12-08-2004, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

I guess we'll have to disagree here. I know Tommy John surgery's pretty amazing, but I still worry about anyone who misses more than a full season due to injury. Anything that happened before then I take with as big a grain of salt as you take Wright's pre-2000 numbers.

Let's just say there's a longer track record of guys being successful post TJ surgery. The list of guys who've left Atlanta and pitched well is not so long, if it exists at all.

CMH · 12-09-2004, 09:18 AM

I think their point mylons is that Lieber has had a more successful career.

His 2004 season pretty much makes people think that he is indeed the 20 game winner he was in Chicago for one year. Really, he only got cut short because of major injury - and we already know that TJ Surgery has done wonders. So, in all honesty, I don't think we should even consider the injury anymore.

Wright, on the other hand, has had ONE good year. Even the year he pitched "well" in the playoffs was not really that good. It was average. Factor in the fact that he pitched for the Braves - a team everyone knows revives a pitcher's career - and you can see why people are worried.

Personally, I don't mind Wright because he's a power pitcher that doesn't give up homeruns. Considering he'll be pitching in Yankee Stadium as a right hander that doesn't give up homeruns, I feel good about that. His problem is walks, but he did a great job of not giving up hits last season. And his home/road splits are very similar with the exception of ERA. However, even if he puts up his Road numbers for the Yankees in 2005, I'd be satisfied. It would fall in range with Lieber's numbers (a mid 4 ERA) from last season.

Wright is 29. Lieber is 35. Wright can still continue to improve (he is in his prime). While Lieber seems more likely to be headed into a decline.

The Yanks have needed to get younger with pitching (hopefully adding Milton, as well) for a long time and now that they do people are questioning it. I don't get that.

CommishJoe · 12-09-2004, 09:25 AM

I like the idea of giving Vazquez one more year to see if he can adjust to NY.
I like the idea of getting Milton as we can use a young lefty in the rotation.
But, Wright's had 1 good year recently and that was under Mazzone's watchful eye. Lieber was a known commodity .. one that proved he could succeed in NY. To me, Wright hasn't proven he can succeed anywhere but ATL. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but right now I am not sold.

phillies05 · 12-09-2004, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

As I said in the Womack thread... very good signing. The Phillies flat out need guys to keep the ball on the ground in that stadium. I would expect them to be in the running for DLowe as well.

The Phils need some pitchers that can keep the ball inside the fence. Milton is good, but he lets up more than a homer a game. I dont know much about Lieber, is he gonna be a starter for the Phils. Ed Wade wants to find room for the Young Arms of the organization, but he keeps bringing in older pitchers to fill up those slots.

Gastric ReFlux · 12-09-2004, 10:13 AM

What the hell? Lieber isn't a middle reliever, what's Wade doing signing him? I know, Wade will use Lieber for trade bait to pick up those two key middle relievers in late July. Good thinking!

Sinclair · 12-09-2004, 10:56 AM

Anyone here watch the Braves closely, last season? I can't give you a rundown on Wright, but I can give you my "scouting" report

on Leiber...

Leib has great composure, and he's a class act all the way. He's a quick pitcher - his first few starts, he was in windup by the time the batters were stepping into the box. He has two pitch zones: shins, and thighs. When he's at the shins, he gets groundball after groundball. When he's at the thighs, he gets shelled. If the Phils have a decent pitching coach and a smart catcher (how's Lieberthal's game-calling?), Leib can win 12-15 (constant reminders to keep the ball down).

Last year, Leib's problem was he'd go 5, 6, 7 innings a start, and all but one would be fantastic. But one inning a game, he'd climb into knee territory and give up 2, 3, 4 runs. The good news, it was rarely more than one inning. The bad news, it was rarely less than one inning... The Yanks let him get away with this because of their immaculate faith in the offense to put 4 on the board. The Phils have struggled offensively, and may opt to hook Leib in that inning (which often came in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th).

He's an asset to the infield defense, because he works fast (REAL fast) and throws strikes (LOTS of strikes). This results in what seems like a constant barrage of routine ground balls for the middle infielders to suck in. The infielders are guaranteed to be paying attention for the two and a half minutes they're on the field.

MrWorkrate · 12-09-2004, 12:13 PM

What's funny is that the Yankees couldn't have won either way. If they sign Lieber instead of Wright, they're making their rotation ancient. If they sign Wright, they're going off of one year.

Of the second tier free agent pitchers, those pretty much were the choices. Russ Ortiz is still out there, but is he that much better of an option? Paul Byrd? Maybe, but the same arguments can be made against Byrd that have been made against Wright, and Byrd is 34. Matt Clement? I'm not sure if he'd sign for 3/21. He's got promising numbers, and I think him and Pavano could get $8+ million a year. Derek Lowe? Too frightening of a thought. Jose Lima? Hammered outside of LA. Odalis Perez? Probably a good option - even better than Milton at this point, but it's just a question of how much he's asking for.

There are players who don't want to play for the Yankees. Greg Maddux didn't want to play for them, regardless of the money. I think it'll be easier to judge the Wright signing after FA is over, just to see where other pitchers go and for how much.

Brad Radke signed for $18 million over two years, pushing a 4.23 career ERA. That signing set an interesting number for the market, especially with Kris Benson getting $22.5 million over 3 seasons.

draven085 · 12-09-2004, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWorkrate

Brad Radke signed for $18 million over two years, pushing a 4.23 career ERA. That signing set an interesting number for the market, especially with Kris Benson getting $22.5 million over 3 seasons.

Don't forget Radke's proven track record of both performance and durablity, his 2002 injury aside. He's also pitching in the American League where he has to face DH, something Wright didn't have to do last year. That can have a significant impact on a pitcher's numbers over a full season.

Luis_Rivera · 12-09-2004, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWorkrate

What's funny is that the Yankees couldn't have won either way. If they sign Lieber instead of Wright, they're making their rotation ancient. If they sign Wright, they're going off of one year.

I don't necissarily agree with the whole Leiber=ancient thing... he'll be 37 at the end of his contract. Pushing it... but it's not a terrible thing.

However, you do bring up an interesting point. Let's say Leiber is ancient, and Wright is going to revert back to ****. The Yankees can win... but not signing either of these guys. I mean if they put themselves in this hole where they don't have a solid rotation, wouldn't making a poor signing be just trying to "dig themselves out of a hole?"

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they should be going into rebuilding mode but the underlying philosophy of your post is that "if there are no good options we should pick the best bad one." I really don't think that's a great mentality to have when running a team.

Oh, and... what draven said in the post above me.

SoxWin · 12-09-2004, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CommishJoe

I like the idea of getting Milton as we can use a young lefty in the rotation.

Only on the Yanks would 29 be considered young

Carlton · 12-09-2004, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

As I said in the Womack thread... very good signing. The Phillies flat out need guys to keep the ball on the ground in that stadium. I would expect them to be in the running for DLowe as well.

My sentiments exactly

As a Philly Phanatic...I am always cynical when it comes to Ed Wade, but it looks like he notices what type of pitchers are needed...scary

Did he overpay?
Slightly...

But consider if you were a pitcher, would YOU want to pitch half your games in that bandbox?

And an intangible effect?
Watching a Philly game in which Lieber pitches will be a quick game, I love the fast pace of his starts...now let's hope they do get Lowe...even if they have to overpay.

12-08-2004, 08:08 PM	#25
SoxWin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Blissful ignorance Posts: 3,315	:d __________________ It's called partying. When you do a lot of it, you're bound to be places where the police show up. I smoke a lot of pot and drink a lot of beer. I also graduated Suma Cum Laude. ****ing sue me. - Luis Rivera

12-09-2004, 09:25 AM	#30
CommishJoe Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Minneapolis, MN Posts: 5,238	I like the idea of giving Vazquez one more year to see if he can adjust to NY. I like the idea of getting Milton as we can use a young lefty in the rotation. But, Wright's had 1 good year recently and that was under Mazzone's watchful eye. Lieber was a known commodity .. one that proved he could succeed in NY. To me, Wright hasn't proven he can succeed anywhere but ATL. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but right now I am not sold. __________________ Joe Success isn’t owned. It’s leased. And rent is due every day.

12-09-2004, 12:13 PM	#34
MrWorkrate All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Raleigh, NC Posts: 1,262	What's funny is that the Yankees couldn't have won either way. If they sign Lieber instead of Wright, they're making their rotation ancient. If they sign Wright, they're going off of one year. Of the second tier free agent pitchers, those pretty much were the choices. Russ Ortiz is still out there, but is he that much better of an option? Paul Byrd? Maybe, but the same arguments can be made against Byrd that have been made against Wright, and Byrd is 34. Matt Clement? I'm not sure if he'd sign for 3/21. He's got promising numbers, and I think him and Pavano could get $8+ million a year. Derek Lowe? Too frightening of a thought. Jose Lima? Hammered outside of LA. Odalis Perez? Probably a good option - even better than Milton at this point, but it's just a question of how much he's asking for. There are players who don't want to play for the Yankees. Greg Maddux didn't want to play for them, regardless of the money. I think it'll be easier to judge the Wright signing after FA is over, just to see where other pitchers go and for how much. Brad Radke signed for $18 million over two years, pushing a 4.23 career ERA. That signing set an interesting number for the market, especially with Kris Benson getting $22.5 million over 3 seasons. __________________ I used to come here a lot. Now, not so much.

12-08-2004, 08:20 PM	#26
disposableheros Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,332	jaret had a pretty bad drug problem (does it ever really go away?), injury history, bad attitude, and now the pressure of pinstripes. my expectations are pretty low. lieber had major inj, older, but already dealt with pressure of pinstripes. my expectations are pretty low. lieber/wright - half a dozen of one, six of the other. i would have liked to see either guy at a 1 or 2 year deal.

12-09-2004, 09:18 AM	#29
CMH Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 5,057	I think their point mylons is that Lieber has had a more successful career. His 2004 season pretty much makes people think that he is indeed the 20 game winner he was in Chicago for one year. Really, he only got cut short because of major injury - and we already know that TJ Surgery has done wonders. So, in all honesty, I don't think we should even consider the injury anymore. Wright, on the other hand, has had ONE good year. Even the year he pitched "well" in the playoffs was not really that good. It was average. Factor in the fact that he pitched for the Braves - a team everyone knows revives a pitcher's career - and you can see why people are worried. Personally, I don't mind Wright because he's a power pitcher that doesn't give up homeruns. Considering he'll be pitching in Yankee Stadium as a right hander that doesn't give up homeruns, I feel good about that. His problem is walks, but he did a great job of not giving up hits last season. And his home/road splits are very similar with the exception of ERA. However, even if he puts up his Road numbers for the Yankees in 2005, I'd be satisfied. It would fall in range with Lieber's numbers (a mid 4 ERA) from last season. Wright is 29. Lieber is 35. Wright can still continue to improve (he is in his prime). While Lieber seems more likely to be headed into a decline. The Yanks have needed to get younger with pitching (hopefully adding Milton, as well) for a long time and now that they do people are questioning it. I don't get that.

12-09-2004, 10:13 AM	#32
Gastric ReFlux Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Member #3409 Posts: 8,350	What the hell? Lieber isn't a middle reliever, what's Wade doing signing him? I know, Wade will use Lieber for trade bait to pick up those two key middle relievers in late July. Good thinking!

12-09-2004, 10:56 AM	#33
Sinclair Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 202	Anyone here watch the Braves closely, last season? I can't give you a rundown on Wright, but I can give you my "scouting" report on Leiber... Leib has great composure, and he's a class act all the way. He's a quick pitcher - his first few starts, he was in windup by the time the batters were stepping into the box. He has two pitch zones: shins, and thighs. When he's at the shins, he gets groundball after groundball. When he's at the thighs, he gets shelled. If the Phils have a decent pitching coach and a smart catcher (how's Lieberthal's game-calling?), Leib can win 12-15 (constant reminders to keep the ball down). Last year, Leib's problem was he'd go 5, 6, 7 innings a start, and all but one would be fantastic. But one inning a game, he'd climb into knee territory and give up 2, 3, 4 runs. The good news, it was rarely more than one inning. The bad news, it was rarely less than one inning... The Yanks let him get away with this because of their immaculate faith in the offense to put 4 on the board. The Phils have struggled offensively, and may opt to hook Leib in that inning (which often came in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th). He's an asset to the infield defense, because he works fast (REAL fast) and throws strikes (LOTS of strikes). This results in what seems like a constant barrage of routine ground balls for the middle infielders to suck in. The infielders are guaranteed to be paying attention for the two and a half minutes they're on the field.