Need some advice on a HR issue in my solo fictional league

Deitrus · 11-14-2004, 12:44 AM

OK, I play with real teams (added a few to make 36 teams) and fictional players. I am looking for "MLB like" statistics. In other words, I dont care if they are right on the mark as far as matching up with the MLB but I want close to realistic stats.

Heres the problem I am having. I have already started my league and as a house rule, I told myself that I would not change the "League Totals" once I started my career. I did that because I felt that all players should be treated equaly so changing the league totals *could* hinder some stats and player breakouts. Heres the issue though. I am in my second season. In my first season a player hit 45 HRs, which was OK for me but now it looks as if at leat 6 players are going to hit at least 60HRs and about another dozen in the 50HR mark and maybe 3 in the 70HR mark.

What should I do? Should I break my house rule and increase homeruns in the league totals (which would lower HRs overall) so that the 70 HR mark isnt broken so fast or should I just leave it?

My goal is to create realistic stats (i.e. MLB) and if a player ever hit 70HRs thats fine but I dint want it to be so quick. Im not sure what I should do.

endgame · 11-14-2004, 02:43 AM

Well, that's a tough call. But I'd have to say it's early in the development and the second season may be too soon to make the call. Err on the side of your commitment to house rules. You implemented them for a reason and this may just be a hitter's year. On the other hand, they're your rules to make and break -- but once you start second guessing one thing (speaking from experience) it seems more and more things started being subject to change, editing, and/or alteration. I'd favor waiting it out.

andjbock · 11-14-2004, 02:49 AM

No don't lower the totals because the same # of HR will still be hit, just dispersed differently.

Deitrus · 11-14-2004, 03:14 AM

Thanks for the replys. I agree that once I start to second guess my rules that they may be chganged at will. Dont laugh but I actually even came up a "League Constitution". There I wrote certain rules on how managers get fired/hired (I base them on w/l seasons vs. team pay roll vs. team income, ect)

That may sound dumb but I thought it was cool to do. I mean, I thought that by writing a League Constitution I would be able to set rules/laws for the league. The one thing I didnt add was league totals. Although I had intentions to, I never did. I guess its time to add to it.

You know, I wonder if any other people do this (writing (or just have) a League Constitution. It would make for a good poll.

ragnaar15 · 11-14-2004, 03:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andjbock

No don't lower the totals because the same # of HR will still be hit, just dispersed differently.

No, lowering the leauge totals will lower the # of HR, and change the dispersion as well.

Deitrus · 11-14-2004, 03:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ragnaar15

No, lowering the leauge totals will lower the # of HR, and change the dispersion as well.

Can you explain this some more. I dont understand. How willl this effect dispersion & what will it actually disperse? Thanks in advance.

ragnaar15 · 11-14-2004, 04:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deitrus

Can you explain this some more. I dont understand. How willl this effect dispersion & what will it actually disperse? Thanks in advance.

As I understand it, the more you lower a stat (ie raise a league total) the more evenly the outcome is spread across the league, but players at both extremes will be affected a bit more, ie your great HR hitters will hit a few more while the singles hitters will hit a few less, with the middle getting the greatest effect. I really haven't noticed any kind of polarization of the extremes when lowering HRs, so it's never been a problem for me. I suggest you do a search for topics about the league totals, they've been discussed to death better than I could ever explain.

Deitrus · 11-14-2004, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ragnaar15

As I understand it, the more you lower a stat (ie raise a league total) the more evenly the outcome is spread across the league, but players at both extremes will be affected a bit more, ie your great HR hitters will hit a few more while the singles hitters will hit a few less, with the middle getting the greatest effect. I really haven't noticed any kind of polarization of the extremes when lowering HRs, so it's never been a problem for me. I suggest you do a search for topics about the league totals, they've been discussed to death better than I could ever explain.

OK, thanks. Yeah, I do remember seeing those threads. Would you say that increasing (which lower the HR) the HR league total only by a little bit would be OK. For example, I have HR's set at 5159 and was think to set it to 5359.

ragnaar15 · 11-14-2004, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deitrus

OK, thanks. Yeah, I do remember seeing those threads. Would you say that increasing (which lower the HR) the HR league total only by a little bit would be OK. For example, I have HR's set at 5159 and was think to set it to 5359.

The best way I've found to do it is by percentage. If I'm getting 10% too many home runs one year, I increase the league home run total by 10%, thereby dropping the stats by 10% to what I want.

Deitrus · 11-14-2004, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ragnaar15

The best way I've found to do it is by percentage. If I'm getting 10% too many home runs one year, I increase the league home run total by 10%, thereby dropping the stats by 10% to what I want.

Thanks again. I'll try that as a rule of thumb.

BaseballMan · 11-14-2004, 05:00 PM

I dont think you should change league totals after one season but i dont think you can have stats close to MLB using the same league totals for every year. I beleive you will eventually have to change them because you will have too many players that can hit the 50 homers.

Like in real life where changes in baseball took place because of schedules, expansion, better talented players etc.

Even though i dont know what year you started i dont think using one league total settings will give good results but i could be wrong.
I think its best to keep an eye on your totals and every time they seem to get too wacky in one category run some test seasons till you get the stats back to the way you like. But i wouldnt do it just after one season unless its just way out of wack.
Maybe you could make a house rule of the limit a total can get either high or low before you make a change. I wouldnt consider this breaking your house rules because the whole league has to play under the same totals.
Now if you changed the totals to lower hr's because you dont have many hr hitters, that would be different.

But overall i just dont think one set of totals will give good results through the entire history of your league.

Ben E Lou · 11-14-2004, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaseballMan

I dont think you should change league totals after one season but i dont think you can have stats close to MLB using the same league totals for every year. I beleive you will eventually have to change them because you will have too many players that can hit the 50 homers.

Like in real life where changes in baseball took place because of schedules, expansion, better talented players etc.

Even though i dont know what year you started i dont think using one league total settings will give good results but i could be wrong.
I think its best to keep an eye on your totals and every time they seem to get too wacky in one category run some test seasons till you get the stats back to the way you like. But i wouldnt do it just after one season unless its just way out of wack.
Maybe you could make a house rule of the limit a total can get either high or low before you make a change. I wouldnt consider this breaking your house rules because the whole league has to play under the same totals.
Now if you changed the totals to lower hr's because you dont have many hr hitters, that would be different.

But overall i just dont think one set of totals will give good results through the entire history of your league.

Using creation mnodifiers, rather than league totals, gives much more statistical stability.

Eugene Church · 11-14-2004, 05:25 PM

Please note I play with minors disabled and create my own rookies...so take this with a grain of salt...it may not apply to your situation.

I have consistently adjusted my league totals for 10 years now...and have found that my home run leaders used to get 40-50 homers each season, I am now down to 25-35 per year...same thing with my averages...league average is consistently around .260, but the leaders in the early years were .380-.400 and now there are .330-.350...I think it is because I create my own rookies so they can complete in the majors right away at ages 18-24...minors are disabled because I could not get the game to develop young players sooner...and I have made individual player ratings adjustments...probably too much and I think I have improved the talent in the league too much. Home run totals for the league have dropped quite a bit. I intend to slowly raise my league totals (by lowering the number of home runs) to try and get them back to the 40-50 range for the league leaders.

1st season: 3000 home runs...leader 48
2nd season: 2875...leader 42
3rd season: 2900...leader 48
4th season: 2575...leader 41
5th season: 2400...leader 49
6th season: 2000...leader 34
7th season: 1750...leader 35
8th season: 1550...leader 29
9th season: 1550...leader 28
10th season: 1700...leader 26

Deitrus · 11-14-2004, 05:57 PM

So if I increase the HR league Totals (which would decrease HRs I assume) will this hurt the good HR hitters in my league? Thanks.

Eugene Church · 11-14-2004, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deitrus

So if I increase the HR league Totals (which would decrease HRs I assume) will this hurt the good HR hitters in my league? Thanks.

I think it would affect all the hitters in your league, not just the leaders.

Note in my league, the league dropped from 3000 homers to 1550 in 10 years...a 49% drop....while the leaders dropped from 48 to 28...a 42% drop...which is pretty much proportional.

IMO I think if you play the game as it is designed and not overly adjust individual player ratings to the degree I have, the game works fine and minor adjustments each year in the league totals will keep your stats where you want them to be. In my previous leagues where I did not create my own rookies, the stats were much easier to adjust. So in my workaround to get younger and better players in my leagues I have caused this problem with the home run and batting average leaders. My solution to my problem is to create rookies with a wider range of talent and ratings. I made them all too good. I'll see how that works. I also intend to lower the home run number in the league totals (lowering will increase the home run totals) quite a bit in the next season and see what happens.

11-14-2004, 12:44 AM	#1
Deitrus All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: United States Posts: 535	Need some advice on a HR issue in my solo fictional league OK, I play with real teams (added a few to make 36 teams) and fictional players. I am looking for "MLB like" statistics. In other words, I dont care if they are right on the mark as far as matching up with the MLB but I want close to realistic stats. Heres the problem I am having. I have already started my league and as a house rule, I told myself that I would not change the "League Totals" once I started my career. I did that because I felt that all players should be treated equaly so changing the league totals could hinder some stats and player breakouts. Heres the issue though. I am in my second season. In my first season a player hit 45 HRs, which was OK for me but now it looks as if at leat 6 players are going to hit at least 60HRs and about another dozen in the 50HR mark and maybe 3 in the 70HR mark. What should I do? Should I break my house rule and increase homeruns in the league totals (which would lower HRs overall) so that the 70 HR mark isnt broken so fast or should I just leave it? My goal is to create realistic stats (i.e. MLB) and if a player ever hit 70HRs thats fine but I dint want it to be so quick. Im not sure what I should do. Last edited by Deitrus; 11-14-2004 at 12:47 AM.

11-14-2004, 02:43 AM	#2
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,842	Well, that's a tough call. But I'd have to say it's early in the development and the second season may be too soon to make the call. Err on the side of your commitment to house rules. You implemented them for a reason and this may just be a hitter's year. On the other hand, they're your rules to make and break -- but once you start second guessing one thing (speaking from experience) it seems more and more things started being subject to change, editing, and/or alteration. I'd favor waiting it out.

11-14-2004, 02:49 AM	#3
andjbock Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Somerville, MA, USA Bats: Right Throws: Left Posts: 3,637	No don't lower the totals because the same # of HR will still be hit, just dispersed differently.

11-14-2004, 03:14 AM	#4
Deitrus All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: United States Posts: 535	Thanks for the replys. I agree that once I start to second guess my rules that they may be chganged at will. Dont laugh but I actually even came up a "League Constitution". There I wrote certain rules on how managers get fired/hired (I base them on w/l seasons vs. team pay roll vs. team income, ect) That may sound dumb but I thought it was cool to do. I mean, I thought that by writing a League Constitution I would be able to set rules/laws for the league. The one thing I didnt add was league totals. Although I had intentions to, I never did. I guess its time to add to it. You know, I wonder if any other people do this (writing (or just have) a League Constitution. It would make for a good poll.

11-14-2004, 05:00 PM	#11
BaseballMan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 6,525	I dont think you should change league totals after one season but i dont think you can have stats close to MLB using the same league totals for every year. I beleive you will eventually have to change them because you will have too many players that can hit the 50 homers. Like in real life where changes in baseball took place because of schedules, expansion, better talented players etc. Even though i dont know what year you started i dont think using one league total settings will give good results but i could be wrong. I think its best to keep an eye on your totals and every time they seem to get too wacky in one category run some test seasons till you get the stats back to the way you like. But i wouldnt do it just after one season unless its just way out of wack. Maybe you could make a house rule of the limit a total can get either high or low before you make a change. I wouldnt consider this breaking your house rules because the whole league has to play under the same totals. Now if you changed the totals to lower hr's because you dont have many hr hitters, that would be different. But overall i just dont think one set of totals will give good results through the entire history of your league.

11-14-2004, 05:25 PM	#13
Eugene Church Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 36,047	Please note I play with minors disabled and create my own rookies...so take this with a grain of salt...it may not apply to your situation. I have consistently adjusted my league totals for 10 years now...and have found that my home run leaders used to get 40-50 homers each season, I am now down to 25-35 per year...same thing with my averages...league average is consistently around .260, but the leaders in the early years were .380-.400 and now there are .330-.350...I think it is because I create my own rookies so they can complete in the majors right away at ages 18-24...minors are disabled because I could not get the game to develop young players sooner...and I have made individual player ratings adjustments...probably too much and I think I have improved the talent in the league too much. Home run totals for the league have dropped quite a bit. I intend to slowly raise my league totals (by lowering the number of home runs) to try and get them back to the 40-50 range for the league leaders. 1st season: 3000 home runs...leader 48 2nd season: 2875...leader 42 3rd season: 2900...leader 48 4th season: 2575...leader 41 5th season: 2400...leader 49 6th season: 2000...leader 34 7th season: 1750...leader 35 8th season: 1550...leader 29 9th season: 1550...leader 28 10th season: 1700...leader 26

11-14-2004, 05:57 PM	#14
Deitrus All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: United States Posts: 535	So if I increase the HR league Totals (which would decrease HRs I assume) will this hurt the good HR hitters in my league? Thanks.