Too many 3-6-3 double plays?

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

Has anyone else noticed too many double plays, and specifically too many 3-6-3 and 1-6-3 double plays?

I estimate that a team should turn about one double play per game - that's a pretty typical number for post-WWII baseball.

Looking over Cato for last season, teams turned many, many more than that in my league. I don't play in the modern era, so someone else might have better numbers to use for this, but it seems completely off. If anyone else can share their Cato results, I'd like to see them, but my main point is actually the way these double plays are happening.

Also, according to Bill James' New Historical Abstract, the breakdown of infield-only double plays are as follows:

30.8% 6-4-3 DP
25.5% 4-6-3 DP
16.3% 5-4-3 DP
8.3% 6-3 DP*
6.2% 1-6-3 DP**
5.8% 4-3 DP
2.8% 3-6-3 DP**
1.5% 3-6-1 DP*
1.2% 1-4-3 DP
1.2% 3-6 DP*
0.3% 3-6-4 DP*

The ones marked with one asterisk are plays that, to the best of my knowledge, do not exist in OOTP. The ones marked with two asterisks are plays that seem highly overrepresented in OOTP.

The top three seem fine to me, and I know I've seen 4-3 double plays on line outs, which I suspect accounts for most of them in real life as well. I can't remember whether 1-4-3 DPs exist in OOTP, or whether the pitcher double plays all go to the shortstop.

As for the 6-3 DPs, I don't see them at all. I suspect that the majority of them are grounders hit right at second base, with a handful of line outs. However, I've never seen line outs to the left side of the infield result in OOTP double plays, nor have I seen the shortstop take the play at second unassisted. 3-6-1 and 3-6-4 double plays should be mixed in with the 3-6-3s, as I assume these are plays where the first baseman has to range to his right to make the play and someone else has to cover first. 3-6 double plays seem like line outs to me, although I'm not sure.

However, let's look at the expected number of 1-6-3 and 3-6-3 double plays. If we assume a team turns 175 double plays in a 162-game season (historically a VERY high figure), then each team turns 1.08 double plays per game. By my math, a team should then have a 1-6-3 double play about once every 16 games, and a 3-6-3 double play about once every 30-35 games (about once every 20 games if I include the 3-6-1 and 3-6-4 DPs).

I don't know about you guys, but I'm seeing 1-6-3 and 3-6-3 DPs a hell of a lot more than once every 15 and 30 games respectively.

Anyone have any observations on this?

[mlyons]

FYI, I have seen 6-3 DPs. PBP usually goes something like this:

Bob Batter hits a ground ball up the middle
easy play for Joe Shortstop
steps on second base for one
the throw to first
for two!
and they turn the double play!

Something like that, at least. It's not terribly common. I'd guess I see it once every 10-20 games. It's a relatively new addition I think; maybe even as recent as 6.03. You are right about the 3-6-3 DPs, though. They seem to make up a lot more than 3% of the total DPs.

I checked my solo league, and teams are turning an average of right around 1 DP per game. My settings are a little tweaked too, though, so I'm not sure if that really means much.

[JDOldSchool]

I also have seen the 6-3 double play as well as the 4-3 double play. Both of these are on balls up the middle.

Can you be sure a 3-6-1 DP isn't in the game? On balls to the first baseman, the PBP does not usually say who receives the return throw to first. I wonder if maybe it is the pitcher taking the throw (at least some of the time).

[disposableheros]

Originally Posted by Eckstein 4 Prez

3-6 double plays seem like line outs to me, although I'm not sure.

although usually a line out, could be a grounder right at the 1st base bag where the 1B steps on the bag and throws to the 2B/SS to tag the runner (almost always the SS would take the throw)

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

Okay, I'm willing to concede on the too many overall double plays issue if other people can confirm that Cato shows they're turning about the right amount - as I said, I'm not playing with modern settings, so I've got more runners on first than you would in a modern league.

But I'm pretty certain on the issue of too many double plays that start off with the pitcher and (especially) first baseman.

Any hope of getting this looked at?

[gmo]

Originally Posted by Eckstein 4 Prez

Okay, I'm willing to concede on the too many overall double plays issue if other people can confirm that Cato shows they're turning about the right amount - as I said, I'm not playing with modern settings, so I've got more runners on first than you would in a modern league.

But I'm pretty certain on the issue of too many double plays that start off with the pitcher and (especially) first baseman.

Any hope of getting this looked at?

In looking at my just completed solo league season, teams averaged about 150 DPs total (using the default league totals setting). I have never felt that was a problem in the game. As for your observation of perhaps too many 1- & 3- ground ball DPs, I too have gotten that impression, mostly from V4 & V5 as I have not played out many V6 games. I'd be inclined though to favor Eugene Church's desire to get more basic and more common plays into the game before redoing the GDP distribution.

Just to be sure, you are just basing this on what you have seen from watching/playing out games, right? I'm just wanting to make sure that I'm not missing out on a stat here.

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

Originally Posted by gmo

Just to be sure, you are just basing this on what you have seen from watching/playing out games, right? I'm just wanting to make sure that I'm not missing out on a stat here.

Yep. My season totals come from Catobase, but the way the DPs happen is based on observation.

[JDOldSchool]

Originally Posted by Eckstein 4 Prez

Yep. My season totals come from Catobase, but the way the DPs happen is based on observation.

Forgive my ignorance here, but where can I find the double play totals in my Catobase files? This is the first league in which I've used Cato and I'm still familiarizing myself with it.

[jmm8356]

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

I also have seen the 6-3 double play as well as the 4-3 double play. Both of these are on balls up the middle.

Can you be sure a 3-6-1 DP isn't in the game? On balls to the first baseman, the PBP does not usually say who receives the return throw to first. I wonder if maybe it is the pitcher taking the throw (at least some of the time).

Actually, the PbP never tells you who's covering first on a 3-6-X double play. Not that it would necessarily matter...

On a bunt, if there's a high/low throw, the PbP says something like:

Secondbaseman is covering first...
high throw!...
Firstbaseman leaps...
he has it!
Firstbaseman steps on the base...
and Batter is retired.

Whether this is just a PbP glitch, or the game is using the 1B's ratings on high/low throws off of bunts (or even whether the "receiver's" fielding has an impact on the outcome of high/low throws), I don't know.

[jmm8356]

I did a little math on a few of my teams (typical data below) and it looks, for starters, that there's way too many around-the-horn DPs (5-4-3), and probably too many 3-6-3 DPs too, though that's harder to get a handle on.

(I tried assuming that all the pitcher DPs were 1-6-3/3-6-1 at first, but then I ended up with a lot more "leftover" 1B DPs and no 3-6-3s at all.)

Just one data point... take it as you will...

[JDOldSchool]

There's also a 3 unassisted double play. I see this quite a bit where the first baseman catches a line drive and tags the runner on first for the double play. I'm not sure where this fits into this discussion, but the play is in the game.

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

Originally Posted by JDOldSchool

There's also a 3 unassisted double play. I see this quite a bit where the first baseman catches a line drive and tags the runner on first for the double play. I'm not sure where this fits into this discussion, but the play is in the game.

The one I see all the time is the 8-4 double play, where the center fielder catches a liner and doubles the runner off of second.

I'm starting to track the way DPs happen in all of my games. When I get a sufficient amount of data, I'll post it here.