A better way to evaluate pitching using DIPS

[BobBob]

First, I think the switch to DIPS is great.

Problem is, IRL, we don’t evaluate a pitcher’s ability to get Ks (Stuff) and avoid BB (Control) and homeruns (Movement). A pitcher’s outputs don’t correlate as exactly to their abilities as hitters do.

Moreover, these DIPS attributes don’t exist independently of each other, as we sometimes see in OOTP (ie a pitcher with terrible control who can’t strike somebody else out but yet doesn’t give up any HRs)

IRL a scout looks at a pitcher’s velocity, pitch quality, and control. These attributes are what make a pitcher. They are what – along with intangibles like poise and deception – make a pitcher’s performance. I would like to see the game scout these attributes and use them to create the DIPS performance numbers.

I think this would make the game a lot more fun. It doesn’t mean much to see a minor leaguer’s “Stuff” rise (especially independent of Movement). On the other hand, it would be very cool to see a pitcher develop better “pitch quality” as he matures, or better “poise.” Improvements in these attributes would mean something.

It would also be neat to see hard throwing head cases who can’t get a return on their ability, alongside vets who make up for bad stuff with better poise and deception.

The following 5 attributes are most important in a pitchers performance and I think it would be cool to incorporate them. .

Velocity (especially for Ks)
Pitch Quality (does the fast ball move? does his curve have bite? do they hang too often?)
Control (does he hit his spots?)
Deception (Maybe the most important part of pitching. How much does he tip his pitches? Does he throw a “heavy ball”? Is he “crafty”? Does he know the mental side of the game or is he just a thrower?)
Poise (Speaks for itself. Some old pros seem to run on nothing but gumption. And some rookies with great stuff and control fall apart.)

I would love to see the game scout these attributes, assign them numerical values, and translate them into the DIPS numbers. I know that adds an extra set of calculations, but it would add a great dimension to the sim.

[BobBob]

I don’t want to suggest a problem without offering a solution. It is possible to translate the five attributes I suggested above into the DIPS factors within the present 1-150 scale.

These formulas will produce realistic pitchers. I don’t expect the formulas themselves to be much use, but the values they assign various abilities is producing DIPS numbers are very very real to life. So here goes.

Velocity effects Stuff a lot and Movement a little. VEL
Pitch quality effects Stuff and Movement a lot. PQ
Control effects Command and Movement a lot. CON

Deception effects Stuff and Movement. DEC
Poise effects everything to a greater or lesser extent. POI

By way of example, I made some formulas.

I used the games 0-10 scale for velocity, 1-100 for control and 2-8 scales for the other qualities because that scale has a true mean (5). I went for averages on the 1-10 scale (5.5).


Using these formulas, you’d get these ranges:

STUFF Min= 7 Avg= 56 Max= 133
COMMAND Min= .7 Avg= 55 Max= 130
MOVEMENT Min= 7 Avg= 54 Max= 143

Without DECEPTION or POISE, the ranges would be:

STUFF 16 - 96
COMMAND 1 - 100
MOVEMENT 14 - 99

[BobBob]

Here are the formulas:

STUFF

(VEL, DEC, PQ, POI)

Velocity matters a lot here, so does pitch quality. Deception matters a lot too. Big league hitters can hit anything if they know its coming. Poise matters too, but not as much.

40%+ (DEC-1)/10 times 7(VEL) + 5(PQ) + 2(POI)


Minimum= 7
Average= 56
Maximum= 133

Min w. Avg POI and DEC= 16
Max w. Avg POI and DEC = 96


COMMAND

(CON, POI)

A pitcher without poise will walk people when the going gets tough. I call the combo Command.

50% + POI/10 times CON


Minimum= .7
Average= 55
Maximum= 130

Min. Avg POI and DEC= 1
Max Avg POI and DEC= 100

MOVEMENT

(CON, PQ, GBall %DEC, POI, VEL)
Assume GBall % ranges from 40% to 60%.


GB%- 10% + (DEC + POI)/10 times 2(VEL) + 5(PQ) + CON/2


Minimum= 7
Average= 54
Maximum= 143

Min w. Avg POI and DEC= 13.5
Max w. Avg POI and DEC= 99

[Dan Theman]

You might be interested in checking out this thread where Markus goes a bit more in detail about how it's currently being used.