Active Player HOF Debate: Third Base (poll included)

[PotatoPeeler]

Originally Posted by MrWorkrate

Chipper, if he retired today, I would consider a third baseman. However, considering he's an outfielder now and assuming that he likely will be for the remainder of his career (unless he moves to first), he more than likely will finish his career with more games played as an outfielder than a third baseman. Can't consider him.

Chipper has been starting at 3B for the last two weeks or so. Barring an injury to Marrero, he'll probably finish the season there.

[PotatoPeeler]

Originally Posted by holyroller

Chipper Jones - A very interesting case. From 1996 to the present he has been a fantastic hitter, but his defense at third was so undeniably awful that it detracts greatly from his value. Right now, he would not get my vote despite the OBP that I love and plus power to boot. However, he is still just 32 and has at least 4-5 seasons to improve his chances.

Originally Posted by holyroller

Edgar Martinez - Best included here despite the fact that he hasn't played an inning at the position since 1996 and has not been a regular here since '92. Opinions of him will be largely dependent on how you feel about the DH question. My position is that he is in, right now, but I have a sinking feeling he will not actually make it. The Mariners screwed him over by keeping him in AAA in favor of Jim Presley (CHRIST!!!) long after he was ready and his predeliction for injury moved him off third, but he has been a superlative hitter since day one. Thanks to the stupidity of Mariners management, his career counting stats are unimpressive, but his rate stats are so damned good. 101.2 WARP3 and a .423 career OBP push me well over the borderline. Has my vote in a second, but I doubt he will actually get in.

So Chipper doesn't get in because of his "undeniably awful" defense but a guy he's probably equal to with the bat gets in despite the fact that his defense is so terrible they haven't even bothered putting him on the field for the last 8+ seasons?

[swampdragon]

I didn't vote for any of them. Right now, the only one that I have that level of respect for is Rolen, who is undeniably a terrific player. The others are all good players, but it's not a Hall of Very Good. As a Ranger fan, I'll put in a plug for Hank Blalock here. I'm excited about his prospects of becoming a great player.

[jaxmagicman]

Originally Posted by MrWorkrate

As it stands right now, for third basemen, it's only Rolen and Chavez, and both could very easily fall off that track.

While Edgar and Chipper both deserve HoF consideration for their offensive contributions, Edgar doesn't get my vote here because he doesn't deserve to be considered a Hall of Famer as a third baseman. Edgar was the M's full time third baseman for only three seasons. While he is definately one of the best hitters of the 90s, to label him a third baseman in general isn't accurate.

Chipper, if he retired today, I would consider a third baseman. However, considering he's an outfielder now and assuming that he likely will be for the remainder of his career (unless he moves to first), he more than likely will finish his career with more games played as an outfielder than a third baseman. Can't consider him.

Chipper is playing third again for the Braves.

Edit: I should read the whole thread before responding. Someone has told you that already.

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by holyroller

Is a SS

If Edgar Martinez and Chipper Jones are in this category, A-Rod probably should be too. I'd be willing to bet that Alex Rodriguez finishes his career with more innings at third than Edgar Martinez.

[Knox]

I could see Chavez and Glaus getting the numbers if they find ways to stay healthy.

[holyroller]

Originally Posted by PotatoPeeler

So Chipper doesn't get in because of his "undeniably awful" defense but a guy he's probably equal to with the bat gets in despite the fact that his defense is so terrible they haven't even bothered putting him on the field for the last 8+ seasons?

No, Chipper was a negative defensive player (which is worse than no defensive value) which dragged down his overall value. BTW, Edgar was actually a decent defensive player, he was moved because of injury.

In any case, the reason I wouldn't vote for Chipper just yet is not because of his terrible defense, but because he hasn't played long enough. A couple more seasons and he'll be in.

[holyroller]

On my position placements:

I am not going to poll for DH's and Edgar has played more here than anywhere else, hence he gets listed here.

Chipper has still played many more games at third than the outfield, hence he is here.

ARod is in his first year at third after spending his entire career at short, hence he is not here.

I put them where they have played the most, which is the most reasonable way to do it IMO

[disposableheros]

Originally Posted by disposableheros

hmmmm, sit on the bench and wait for my turn to hit or run around the field and expend my energy then hit

i choose b

Originally Posted by Boozie1580

sorry, didnt realize i was being so deep. see my first post to be unconfused.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by PotatoPeeler

So Chipper doesn't get in because of his "undeniably awful" defense but a guy he's probably equal to with the bat gets in despite the fact that his defense is so terrible they haven't even bothered putting him on the field for the last 8+ seasons?

"Probably equal to with the bat"? If Chipper got Martinez' offense numbers, he'd be in. And don't forget the hype about Edgar Martinez being one of the best right-handed hitter ever.

[kingcharlesxii]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

"Probably equal to with the bat"? If Chipper got Martinez' offense numbers, he'd be in. And don't forget the hype about Edgar Martinez being one of the best right-handed hitter ever.

Edgar Martinez through 2003: 17 seasons (13 with significant playing time), 2119 hits, 297 HRs, .315 BA, .423 OBP, .948 OPS

Chipper Jones through 2003: 10 seasons (9 with significant playing time), 1588 hits, 280 HRs, .309 BA, .404 OBP, .945 OPS

Seems awfully similar to me. Chipper needs ~500 hits and 17 HRs in 4 seasons to match Martinez's numbers. Somehow I think he will get that barring significant injuries.

[PotatoPeeler]

I don't think Martinez gets in at all and if he does, it'll be a damned shame. Figuring he retires after this season he'll probably end up with about 2300 hits and 325 HR. Despite his outstanding OBP, I don't think that's enough to get a guy who doesn't play the field into the Hall.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by kingcharlesxii

Edgar Martinez through 2003: 17 seasons (13 with significant playing time), 2119 hits, 297 HRs, .315 BA, .423 OBP, .948 OPS

Chipper Jones through 2003: 10 seasons (9 with significant playing time), 1588 hits, 280 HRs, .309 BA, .404 OBP, .945 OPS

Seems awfully similar to me. Chipper needs ~500 hits and 17 HRs in 4 seasons to match Martinez's numbers. Somehow I think he will get that barring significant injuries.

Several things:
1. Chipper Jones hit in an environment .020 better in OPS. Check the baseball-reference page, and you'd see the park-adjusted league average for Martinez is .756, while Jones .775 . That's why their OPS+ are 151 vs. 143, a huge difference. And of course Edgar Martinez got the edge in OBP, which means the difference in contribution is larger than OPS+ suggested.

2. Considering Jones' age and recent performance, his rate numbers are going to decline in the next few years. As for Martinez, since he'd probably retire soon, his rate numbers would probably stay the same.

3. Edgar Martinez also got much better peak value, which shouldn't be a surprise considering his advantage in total value or career average value:

Top five OPS season:
Jones: 1.074, 1.032, .972, .970, .951
Martinez: 1.107, 1.059, 1.009, 1.002, 1.001

Top five OPS+ season:
Jones: 175, 162, 155, 146, 142
Martinez: 183, 166, 164, 163, 161

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by PotatoPeeler

I don't think Martinez gets in at all and if he does, it'll be a damned shame. Figuring he retires after this season he'll probably end up with about 2300 hits and 325 HR. Despite his outstanding OBP, I don't think that's enough to get a guy who doesn't play the field into the Hall.

However, Chipper Jones is 150 defensive runs below average for his career, and Edgar Martinez only 22 runs below average!

I think it's all about how one value defense. It's not exactly fair to punish Martinez for DH though. If he played for NL, I'm sure he'd not be worse than Chipper Jones as a fielder.

[PotatoPeeler]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

However, Chipper Jones is 150 defensive runs below average for his career, and Edgar Martinez only 22 runs below average!

I think it's all about how one value defense. It's not exactly fair to punish Martinez for DH though. If he played for NL, I'm sure he'd not be worse than Chipper Jones as a fielder.

That's a good point. I don't think either of them belong at this point.

[kingcharlesxii]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

Several things:
1. Chipper Jones hit in an environment .020 better in OPS. Check the baseball-reference page, and you'd see the park-adjusted league average for Martinez is .756, while Jones .775 . That's why their OPS+ are 151 vs. 143, a huge difference. And of course Edgar Martinez got the edge in OBP, which means the difference in contribution is larger than OPS+ suggested.

2. Considering Jones' age and recent performance, his rate numbers are going to decline in the next few years. As for Martinez, since he'd probably retire soon, his rate numbers would probably stay the same.

3. Edgar Martinez also got much better peak value, which shouldn't be a surprise considering his advantage in total value or career average value:

Top five OPS season:
Jones: 1.074, 1.032, .972, .970, .951
Martinez: 1.107, 1.059, 1.009, 1.002, 1.001

Top five OPS+ season:
Jones: 175, 162, 155, 146, 142
Martinez: 183, 166, 164, 163, 161

1) Edgar's career park adjusted average is thrown off by his late 80's and early 90's numbers. When you compare the years they both played, the park adjusted average is remarkably similar until 2000. I will give you that Chipper has had an edge the last few years.

2) Again, I repeat, what decline before this year??? 2002 was his 3rd highest OPS+ season and 2003 was no slouch either (141 OPS+). This year he has been injured all season which has really affected his swing. If the Braves weren't struggling so much, Chipper would have been DLed for even more time this year.

3) Edgar does walk more, yes. Chipper hits more homers.

Fielding-wise, Chipper might be 150 runs below average but he has also played 1392 games in the field vs 591 to Edgar. He also had to learn a new fielding position at the major league level which isn't the easiest thing to do. Let's just say fielding is a negative for both of them. It is for many HOF players though.

My point is not that Chipper is a surefire HOFer while Martinez isn't, it is that I expect the two players to end up with very similar careers. Edgar is hurt by the fact his career started so late, otherwise he would be an almost for sure HOFer.

[Skipaway]

I thought it's not hard to understand what I mean by decline. It's not likely Chipper Jones could maintain his career average level for the next few years, and his 2003, age 31, is already below his career average. It's fairly common sense a player's career average would likely be lower when retired than age 31.

His three year OPS+ trend? 162, 155, 141. By common aging curve, isn't it safe to assume his career peak was age 27~29, and he'd be more close to 135 than 155 the rest of his career?

Also about the differences between Chipper Jones and Edgar Martinez:

Top 1 OPS+ in the league:
Martinez 1 time
Jones 0 time

Top 3:
Martinez 5 times
Jones 1 time

Top 5:
Martinez 7 times
Jones 1 time

And no, I was not talking about their Hall of Fame credentials. I was talking about "probably equal to with the bat".

[Boozie1580]

Originally Posted by Kaline

I think Blalock has a great shot, but I didn't vote for him (too early).

Plus he wasn't in the poll. That too.

[kingcharlesxii]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

I thought it's not hard to understand what I mean by decline. It's not likely Chipper Jones could maintain his career average level for the next few years, and his 2003, age 31, is already below his career average. It's fairly common sense a player's career average would likely be lower when retired than age 31.

His three year OPS+ trend? 162, 155, 141. By common aging curve, isn't it safe to assume his career peak was age 27~29, and he'd be more close to 135 than 155 the rest of his career?

Also about the differences between Chipper Jones and Edgar Martinez:

Top 1 OPS+ in the league:
Martinez 1 time
Jones 0 time

Top 3:
Martinez 5 times
Jones 1 time

Top 5:
Martinez 7 times
Jones 1 time

And no, I was not talking about their Hall of Fame credentials. I was talking about "probably equal to with the bat".

Chipper was worse at 28 than he was last year. If this hamstring injury proves to be chronic, I would agree he probably won't match his career numbers. However, Edgar is a perfect counterexample to the "peak at 27-29". He didn't peak until his middle 30's. Who says Chipper won't improve once he recovers from this injury? The player he is most similar to, Sheffield, has had a few decent years since age 32 I think

I think we might have to agree to disagree because neither of us can really prove our point at this time. If Chipper goes downhill a lot in the next few years, I'll admit I was wrong.