Lineup building - Protection

[Helli]

Wondering aloud - is OOTP6 a good-enough baseball simulation that protection in the lineup comes into play? How do you guys approach this facet?

I've seen plenty of the "speed or OBP at #1," - "best all around hitter at #3" type of lineup advice, I'm wanting to go deeper.

So one thing I wonder about is protection - I'm thinking about putting Adrian Beltre, who has talent galore but is struggling and is only rated 2 stars - up further in the lineup and some protection behind him - Would that be something that might ruin the lineup, or could he possibly benefit?

[DiMaggio5CF]

I doubt that OOTP takes this into consideration, although it definitely should.

Lineup protection is basically that a pitcher doesn't want to face the guy behind you with runners on, so he's going to give you a good pitch to hit and hope for the best.

I don't think OOTP pitchers take into consideration who's on deck when deciding what pitch to throw.

If my outfielder still throws to home plate to allow the tying run to advance to second in the bottom of the ninth with nobody out, then I doubt lineup protection is a factor.

[mlyons]

I'm not sure if I agree with DiMaggio. I think the AI probably uses the "pitch around" function (judging by how often my better hitters draw walks with men in scoring position), and I know it uses intentional walks. What I don't know (because it's very hard to judge) is if the AI is less likely to do these things with a better hitter on deck. If it is, then that would be some sort of lineup protection -- but only to the extent that a good hitter would not be pitched around or intentionally walked as often. This probably wouldn't help with your Adrian Beltre situation, though -- a 2 star guy isn't going to get pitched around very much in the first place.

[joncon16]

I don't think the AI uses lineup protection in it's decision making process. Using CBL's roster, my two-time MVP Manny Ramirez bats 4th and Todd Helton bats 3rd. Yet Helton still draws a bunch of Intentional Walks, even with the most dangerous hitter in the league looming behind him.

I would like the see that type of chain-reaction strategy implemented. Instead of the AI only considering the present, think a batter (or even an inning ahead).

[Helli]

Yeah, me too - good info joncon, thanks - I was surprised to see this because I didn't see any responses yesterday and didn't get email not. today. thanks man.

[drums016]

Almost like a formula for the batter (maybe one that uses stats, ratings, ect. ) at the plate, and the batter on deck. Each batter's formula will tally up to some interger, and the AI will decide if it should pitch to the batter, pitch around, ect. based on the value. If the batter's (on-deck) value is higher than the batter's value (at the plate), then the AI decides to pitch to this batter, because the batter behind him is a bigger threat.

I know nothing about programming, and am terrible at these kinds of things (I'm a drummer for goodness sake! ), but that was just something that popped into my head.

Now I'm starting to get dizzy from thinking too much

[Helli]

Originally posted by drums016
Almost like a formula for the batter (maybe one that uses stats, ratings, ect. ) at the plate, and the batter on deck. Each batter's formula will tally up to some interger, and the AI will decide if it should pitch to the batter, pitch around, ect. based on the value. If the batter's (on-deck) value is higher than the batter's value (at the plate), then the AI decides to pitch to this batter, because the batter behind him is a bigger threat.

I know nothing about programming, and am terrible at these kinds of things (I'm a drummer for goodness sake! ), but that was just something that popped into my head.

Now I'm starting to get dizzy from thinking too much

Aah, looks like you need to reign it in a bit - you're getting all ahead of yourself.

[holyroller]

There is no statistical evidence in existance which indicates that "protection" exists. As such, I wouldn't be comfortable with it being in that game.

[Vezna31]

I don't know if it makes a difference, but I did it when my rookie shortstop when into a slump, so I moved him to the 7th slot from 8th and put a .300 hitter behind him instead of the pitcher. He got out of his slump and eventually raised his average from .230 to .272 for the year.

[joncon16]

I usually use that strategy too Vezna, moving guys around in the lineup to try and break slumps. I don't know if it actually helps at all, but it makes me feel like I'm doing something constructive.

[Helli]

Originally posted by joncon16
I usually use that strategy too Vezna, moving guys around in the lineup to try and break slumps. I don't know if it actually helps at all, but it makes me feel like I'm doing something constructive.

LOL - I do too, and u know what, it works for me also. (some would probably argue, the coincidental result of the player simply hitting better from that point forth becasue he's a better hitter than that.)

Holy - can I assume you're one of the guys that doesn't believe ina clutch hitter, either?

this is off topic (don't mean to jack my own thread) but as I was watching Chris Webber flail about in yet another post season desperately trying to get rid of the basketball instead of shooting the big shot - I thought of baseball, and how anybody could contend that there isn't emotion in the game of baseball, and that some players couldn't control those emotions better at important moments, thus perform better. Frankly, if emotion wasn't in the game of baseball, it wouldn't be worth watching.

[Dagrims]

Originally posted by Helli
this is off topic (don't mean to jack my own thread) but as I was watching Chris Webber flail about in yet another post season desperately trying to get rid of the basketball instead of shooting the big shot - I thought of baseball, and how anybody could contend that there isn't emotion in the game of baseball, and that some players couldn't control those emotions better at important moments, thus perform better.

I think people mistakenly attribute the 'clutch' label to a performer, when in reality it's the opponent losing focus and making mistakes. Mariano Rivera is not 'clutch' in the playoffs. He simply continues to do his job well and not become distracted. His pitches don't magically become better. He throws the exact same way. It's more likely, given the pressure of the situation and the fact that they haven't been in it as often, that certain batters will perform worse than normal against him as they lose their focus.

Would you call the player who guards Chris Webber clutch?

[joncon16]

I agree Helli; you either have to hope the player's talent rises to the occasion or try to play the hot/cold streaks of different players off each other (if that makes any sense).

As for clutch hitters/pitchers that’s a whole different topic, however, you are absolutely correct tying emotion (or sometimes lack of) to "clutchness". I think you'll find a lot of stats guys that don't believe in such a thing as a clutch hitter because there is no definitive statistical value you can assign to it. It's one of the great intangibles that announcers love to talk about. But any athlete at any level can tell you that their are certain players who want/need that clutch moment and there are certain players that shy away from those instances. Cweb is the perfect example – anyone remember that TO against UNC….. J

[joncon16]

Originally posted by Dagrims
I think people mistakenly attribute the 'clutch' label to a performer, when in reality it's the opponent losing focus and making mistakes. Mariano Rivera is not 'clutch' in the playoffs. He simply continues to do his job well and not become distracted. His pitches don't magically become better. He throws the exact same way. It's more likely, given the pressure of the situation and the fact that they haven't been in it as often, that certain batters will perform worse than normal against him as they lose their focus.

Would you call the player who guards Chris Webber clutch?

I won't call the player guarding Webber clutch -- according to your definition he is just continuing to do his job well while Webber is losing focus.

The answer probably lies in each person's definition of clutch. I consider closing out games in the World Series pretty damn clutch. Sure Rivera is a very good closer, but plenty of very good players have come up empty in pressure situations.