Still a concern

beorn · 05-22-2004, 05:05 PM

As a test, I started a fictional solo league of 32 teams and simmed 20 years, allowing the computer to run all the teams.

Of the top 15 hitters (I used OPS) in year 20, 14 were former 1st round picks. Only the 9th best hitter was an exception -- a catcher taken in the fourth round.

This was with talent ratings not showing.

Steve Kuffrey · 05-22-2004, 05:17 PM

I just took a look at my 16 season fictional career and the numbers were similar with 10/15 being 1st rounders. Though I did have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and even 6th rounder thrown in as well. This is an area that we are continuing to evaluate and adjust.

sixto · 05-22-2004, 06:15 PM

Given that the recommended number of draft rounds per season is 5, I don't see any problem with this at all. If you allow that the MLB draft typically goes about 50-60 rounds, then round 1 of an OOTP draft represents rounds 1-10 or 1-12 of a real draft. I feel safe in assuming that the majority of high-quality major leaguers were drafted in the top 10-12 rounds.

Malleus Dei · 05-22-2004, 06:25 PM

Let me see...your complaint is that the AI drafts very well?

William4192 · 05-22-2004, 07:54 PM

Yeah, what is the conclusion? What are we getting at? Too much or too little?

beorn · 05-22-2004, 09:35 PM

My point is that ammies are far too predictable at the point of time that they are drafted, which really works against the fun factor. (I did not post this above, but almost most of the top 15 hitters had been taken in the top part of the 1st round.)

Sixto, I understand your point, but I cannot agree. I don't feel that round one of the OOTP draft represents rounds 1-10 of the draft. Rather, I see OOTP as having a few regular rounds (3?), with the remainder representing all those longshot rounds in the draft. (In my case, I usually use 8 total -- that's what i did in this test league.)

The justification for having vastly fewer rounds to the draft in OOTP is that the later rounds would get tedious, so they are abstracted into a handful of longshot rounds. But that does not mean that we should end up with a highly predictable draft where almost every future top hitter is gone by pick 12.

Malleus Dei · 05-22-2004, 09:36 PM

Was scouting on or off?

beorn · 05-23-2004, 10:46 AM

On

Smellyface · 05-23-2004, 11:39 AM

I am seeing quite a bit of unpredictability in my league as far as this is concerned. I use a 7 round ammy draft and have seen some great players come out of the 2nd - 5th rounds. I also think that the top few picks shouldn't be absolute locks, but they should usually turn into fairly good players... otherwise, what's the benefit of having a top pick?

bulldog55 · 05-23-2004, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sixto
Given that the recommended number of draft rounds per season is 5, I don't see any problem with this at all. If you allow that the MLB draft typically goes about 50-60 rounds, then round 1 of an OOTP draft represents rounds 1-10 or 1-12 of a real draft. I feel safe in assuming that the majority of high-quality major leaguers were drafted in the top 10-12 rounds.

This is definitely the case here. What we don't need is wild variability in development; we need support for full-length ammy drafts and expanded minors. Drafting isn't all guesswork and chance.

05-22-2004, 05:05 PM	#1
beorn All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: near Rochester, NY Posts: 1,269	Still a concern As a test, I started a fictional solo league of 32 teams and simmed 20 years, allowing the computer to run all the teams. Of the top 15 hitters (I used OPS) in year 20, 14 were former 1st round picks. Only the 9th best hitter was an exception -- a catcher taken in the fourth round. This was with talent ratings not showing. __________________ Commish of Dog Days Baseball Commish Pennant Chase Baseball League (PCBL) Commish and Blue Jays GM Extra Innings Baseball

05-22-2004, 05:17 PM	#2
Steve Kuffrey Administrator Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: S.E. TN - Georgia born and raised Posts: 17,036	I just took a look at my 16 season fictional career and the numbers were similar with 10/15 being 1st rounders. Though I did have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and even 6th rounder thrown in as well. This is an area that we are continuing to evaluate and adjust. __________________ Steve Kuffrey DABS Atlanta Braves - 2008 Eastern Division Champ *DBLC Atlanta Braves - 2011, 2014 East Division Champ, 2012, 2013 NL Wildcard Baseball Maelstrom-Montreal Expos-2013 Tourney winner, 2014 WC Team Sparky's League - Tampa Bay D'Rays Epicenter Baseball League - Astros 2014 The CBL Rewind - Phillies '95

05-22-2004, 07:54 PM	#5
William4192 All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Florida Posts: 1,625	Yeah, what is the conclusion? What are we getting at? Too much or too little? __________________ What is this about Rhode Island? It is neither Road or Island. Come check out the PBA. http://www.pioneerbaseballassociation.com Or email at pbacommish@pioneerbaseballassociation.com

05-22-2004, 09:35 PM	#6
beorn All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: near Rochester, NY Posts: 1,269	My point is that ammies are far too predictable at the point of time that they are drafted, which really works against the fun factor. (I did not post this above, but almost most of the top 15 hitters had been taken in the top part of the 1st round.) Sixto, I understand your point, but I cannot agree. I don't feel that round one of the OOTP draft represents rounds 1-10 of the draft. Rather, I see OOTP as having a few regular rounds (3?), with the remainder representing all those longshot rounds in the draft. (In my case, I usually use 8 total -- that's what i did in this test league.) The justification for having vastly fewer rounds to the draft in OOTP is that the later rounds would get tedious, so they are abstracted into a handful of longshot rounds. But that does not mean that we should end up with a highly predictable draft where almost every future top hitter is gone by pick 12. __________________ Commish of Dog Days Baseball Commish Pennant Chase Baseball League (PCBL) Commish and Blue Jays GM Extra Innings Baseball

05-23-2004, 10:46 AM	#8
beorn All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: near Rochester, NY Posts: 1,269	On __________________ Commish of Dog Days Baseball Commish Pennant Chase Baseball League (PCBL) Commish and Blue Jays GM Extra Innings Baseball

05-22-2004, 06:15 PM	#3
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,273	Given that the recommended number of draft rounds per season is 5, I don't see any problem with this at all. If you allow that the MLB draft typically goes about 50-60 rounds, then round 1 of an OOTP draft represents rounds 1-10 or 1-12 of a real draft. I feel safe in assuming that the majority of high-quality major leaguers were drafted in the top 10-12 rounds.

05-23-2004, 11:39 AM	#9
Smellyface Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Illinois Posts: 211	I am seeing quite a bit of unpredictability in my league as far as this is concerned. I use a 7 round ammy draft and have seen some great players come out of the 2nd - 5th rounds. I also think that the top few picks shouldn't be absolute locks, but they should usually turn into fairly good players... otherwise, what's the benefit of having a top pick? __________________ Corked Bat Baseball League