OOTP 27 New (Advanced) Statistics

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by BPS

Say you had two people, A and B, playing OOTP. And they are playing an identical game save at the start of a season. Both are identically skilled OOTP players.

Both repeat this same season 1000 times. (So, "small sample size" isn't an issue).

If A closely scrutinizes the new stats and takes action base on these stats while B ignored all the new stats, will A do better on average for the 1000 seasons (in winning games and developing players) than B?

It probably depends a lot on your "fog of war" settings.

The foggier you get, I would think the more the advanced stats might help fill in gaps (just like any stats in the game).

[cwhitman]

Originally Posted by Rain King

It probably depends a lot on your "fog of war" settings.

The foggier you get, I would think the more the advanced stats might help fill in gaps (just like any stats in the game).

100%. If you have 100% accurate ratings, the stats aren't particularly meaningful, but if you're trying to figure out what the ratings are actually, that's another piece of the puzzle.

[jcard]

Originally Posted by cwhitman

100%. If you have 100% accurate ratings, the stats aren't particularly meaningful, but if you're trying to figure out what the ratings are actually, that's another piece of the puzzle.

This is the prevailing thinking. Given the variation in results for similarly ratings for one player between saves as well as between multiple players within a given year, however, I have wondered if stats give an indication of abstracted determinants of fluctuations in current form around a given rating baseline.

[jcard]

As for the advanced stats, the best clarification would be a simple documentation showing for what attribute A1(if any) stat S1 is (on average) a proxy. Or just which are useful prospectively in the same way as in real life and which are not. The vagaries of language and definitions permit unnecessary opportunities for misunderstandings.

[omg_pwnasaurus]

I think it's cool. I play with scouting off/100% accuracy since I play historical all the time and so for me it will be more like more fun stuff to look at rather than using for any meaningful evaluations or whatever. But when I'm rolling with 1985 Gooden it will be fun to see that statcast leaderboard lol.

[Bobfather]

Stats are Stats, be it AVG or launch angle. Stats are based on results. And ratings are based on stats. Having more stats gives the user more information and can make the ratings a bit more realistic. The interpretation of this is up to the individual user. IMO

[OutS|der]

An easy way to explain advance stats.

When using 1-100 scale player ratings scale are 6.5.

Player A has HR rating of 500, Player B has 505. Using the 1-100 scale these players would have the same rating but now with advance stats, Player B will have a higher exit velocity.

[Fabtron7]

By the sound of it “advanced stats” are just them just re-working the flavor text/outcomes given to plans after they’ve already been made. It doesn’t impact anything it’s just making sure in the box score the carpet matches the drapes.

Sounds like an immersion addition more than any sort of gameplay addition. Especially after watching Matt’s interview with Dr. D.

[BPS]

Originally Posted by Fabtron7

By the sound of it “advanced stats” are just them just re-working the flavor text/outcomes given to plans after they’ve already been made. It doesn’t impact anything it’s just making sure in the box score the carpet matches the drapes.

Sounds like an immersion addition more than any sort of gameplay addition. Especially after watching Matt’s interview with Dr. D.

Matt had plenty of opportunities in the first RTR video to say that the new advanced stats would provide new, helpful information about players. But he did not say anything like that.

So, this is a case of "the dog that didn't bark."

Instead, he said the new advanced stats would increase "immersion" and would lead to pretty graphs. He did say a GM could decide to "trust" the new advanced stats over other sources of information about players, but such trust was suggested as merely subjective.

In real life, some of the newer stats can (potentially) give insights into players that other types of information don't provide. But it appears that this will not be true for the advanced stats introduced in OOTP 27.

I'm all for greater immersion and pretty graphs. On the other hand, all the time the developers spent to introduce these pseudo-advanced stats might have been used instead in making substantial improvements in gameplay or other aspects of OOTP.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Fabtron7

By the sound of it “advanced stats” are just them just re-working the flavor text/outcomes given to plans after they’ve already been made. It doesn’t impact anything it’s just making sure in the box score the carpet matches the drapes.

Sounds like an immersion addition more than any sort of gameplay addition. Especially after watching Matt’s interview with Dr. D.

Originally Posted by BPS

Matt had plenty of opportunities in the first RTR video to say that the new advanced stats would provide new, helpful information about players. But he did not say anything like that.

So, this is a case of "the dog that didn't bark."

Instead, he said the new advanced stats would increase "immersion" and would lead to pretty graphs. He did say a GM could decide to "trust" the new advanced stats over other sources of information about players, but such trust was suggested as merely subjective.

In real life, some of the newer stats can (potentially) give insights into players that other types of information don't provide. But it appears that this will not be true for the advanced stats introduced in OOTP 27.

I'm all for greater immersion and pretty graphs. On the other hand, all the time the developers spent to introduce these pseudo-advanced stats might have been used instead in making substantial improvements in gameplay or other aspects of OOTP.

Not the way I took Matt's words at all, unless you are using 100% scouting where you know the player's actual ratings. It's more stats to look at to confirm that your fallible scout is either correct or off in his opinions on your player's skills/ratings. IOW there are now extra stats to help us decide if a player is playing up to his scouted skills, on the rise, in decline, or just hitting into bad luck. etc.

To be fair unless the game is based on a physics model "insights into players that other types of information don't provide" isn't going to be possible.
The game isn't physics based meaning everything we've seen in 26 versions is ratings based, IE a ball in OOTP has never been "hit hard", and you can't actually measure bat speed or anything else to try to project what a player will/should be. Though, like the new advanced stats, I'm sure they could develop a mode where doing measurables to project players could be done. Like advance stats, users for the last few years have asked for measurables/projections to be added to the game. With no physics those too would be an illusion, based on underlying player ratings, trying to mimic reality. One could argue all of it didn't really do anything but add immersion.

Everything in this game is an illusion to immerse us in a baseball world. Matt's and the team's job is to tie everything together where all of the immersive stats, whether old or new, make sense. I think without the immersion OOTP would essentially be Strat O Matic. Hit a button and read a result.

My 2 cents.

[Larryk007]

Can we assume that imported OOTP26 games to OOTP27 will update with the new statistics? If so, that would be great!!!!

[Fabtron7]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Everything in this game is an illusion to immerse us in a baseball world.

I agree... Immersion is important, especially in the base game, but nothing about the game is actually changing. It's just the same results wearing slightly nicer clothes.

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by Larryk007

Can we assume that imported OOTP26 games to OOTP27 will update with the new statistics? If so, that would be great!!!!

The stats will only start counting after import. We can't go back and generate those stats for players unfortunately.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Fabtron7

I agree... Immersion is important, especially in the base game, but nothing about the game is actually changing. It's just the same results wearing slightly nicer clothes.

Some people like new and slightly nicer clothes. Yet some are posting like the new stats are a "nothing burger". Maybe for them it is, but for many more the immersion it adds will be appreciated as a big quality of life addition to OOTP. I don't see it being any different than if they improved batting helmets where they were team specific and could be skinned. IE QOL improvement for some, while others couldn't care less about helmets.

What is changing is there is a new/different way a user can now evaluate players. The new advanced stats let users evaluate players using more modern measurements. This is what many users have been asking for over the last few years. I'd also argue players finding OOTP for the first time, especially younger players are expecting advanced stats in a modern baseball game. Not having them leads to some deciding OOTP isn't for them. No, the new stats aren't determined in a physics engine but they are, according to Matt, correlated with skill ratings to produce realistic results. Just like the number of HR or doubles is correlated to the applicable skill ratings.

I'm not a stats only player but wouldn't the advanced stats make a difference for those that do play that way?

At the end of the day any stat the game displays isn't changing the way the game works whether it's the old batting average or the new average exit velocity. What the new stats will do is allow some to evaluate players "their way" and not be limited to the "old way".

[OutS|der]

Advance stats will help everyone with how they play. It's just more info on players with the same displayed ratings.

[Bobfather]

Where I can see myself using them is in figuring out why a player is slumping or playing far above expectations. I used to read Bill James' books and abstract every year. My problem now is I don't know what half of these new stats are, and whether lower or higher is better. And I am not sure I have the time to learn everything. But I am all for having them in-game. My attitude is that if people want it, they can add it. Even if it is a feature I will never use, I'm open to it.
One thing that bothers me when new features are announced is the assumption that if A is added, then B won't be.

[jcard]

Originally Posted by Bobfather

Where I can see myself using them is in figuring out why a player is slumping or playing far above expectations. I used to read Bill James' books and abstract every year. My problem now is I don't know what half of these new stats are, and whether lower or higher is better. And I am not sure I have the time to learn everything. But I am all for having them in-game. My attitude is that if people want it, they can add it. Even if it is a feature I will never use, I'm open to it.
One thing that bothers me when new features are announced is the assumption that if A is added, then B won't be.

The problem is that without information as to the basis of the stats, any use is presumptive. For example, take hard-hit percentage. If this is a stat, what is its derivation? Is it just back-filled from play result, so that it correlates either outcome directly and (such that rating determines outcome) ratings indirectly? Or is it generated based on the BABIP attribute, thereby correlating directly with a rating and indirectly with an outcome? This transcends the physics engine question, and is necessary to apply the data to separating noise from signal.
Also, to preempt the straw man argument that this is akin to wanting access to the underlying engine code, all that is sought is the basic nominal relationship between metric and attribute (if any)—not the explicit parameters and equations.

[low]

Originally Posted by BPS

Matt had plenty of opportunities in the first RTR video to say that the new advanced stats would provide new, helpful information about players. But he did not say anything like that.

So, this is a case of "the dog that didn't bark."

Instead, he said the new advanced stats would increase "immersion" and would lead to pretty graphs. He did say a GM could decide to "trust" the new advanced stats over other sources of information about players, but such trust was suggested as merely subjective.

In real life, some of the newer stats can (potentially) give insights into players that other types of information don't provide. But it appears that this will not be true for the advanced stats introduced in OOTP 27.

I'm all for greater immersion and pretty graphs. On the other hand, all the time the developers spent to introduce these pseudo-advanced stats might have been used instead in making substantial improvements in gameplay or other aspects of OOTP.

Like financials and audio, both of which have been ignored for years and need serious overhauls.

[omg_pwnasaurus]

I like it. I always thought it was a bit of an immersion killer at times to have Tom Herr hit HR the same distance as Jack Clark.

[Fabtron7]

Originally Posted by omg_pwnasaurus

I like it. I always thought it was a bit of an immersion killer at times to have Tom Herr hit HR the same distance as Jack Clark.

I think this kinda nails it as I understand it... Tom Herr won't hit any more or less home-runs and neither with Jack Clark, but now Tommy's will be 355 feet hugging the pole with 93mph exit velocity and Jack's will be 410 to dead centre with a 104mph exit velocity.

Same results, better storytelling.