Crazy Bad Performances

usa_hank · 06-30-2025, 06:14 PM

I can't believe how badly my team is doing in Low Diamond. I've been rattling around in LD, this being the fourth season, and my players just aren't performing. I honestly can't understand why my Sheffield hits .225 and only 15 HR every year when I see him hitting .260+ and 20 HR for everyone else. I can't figure out why my Helton hits .210, or my Rod Carew never hits over .260. I can't figure out why my Chris Sale has an ERA of 5.3 with this being his 3rd season as a starter for me, and a K/9 of 6 (Molina catching). I can't figure out why my Whitey Ford has an ERA of 4.6 over the past 3 seasons in LD, etc. I can only assume people play more RH batters so that's why lefties get hit so hard, but when I look at other teams in my league who have been starting Ford and Sale, they are getting 3.5 ERAs and closer to 8+ K/9.

I get there are external factors like men on base and park factors, but...wow. My luck has to be the worst. I feel like Dave Stieb would play better than Sale, and my Tim Raines has outplayed my Sheffield, Helton, Carew, with a consistent .265 avg and around 11 HR, etc. Crazy.

We've all been there with bad performances in a year, but this has been year after year for these guys for me! Ugh. Tempted to sell off the team and buy other players.

Hawkwing7423 · 06-30-2025, 06:37 PM

I had the best record in HG in my league, so, of course I was reverse swept winning 2 and losing 3 by a team with 13 fewer wins.

That's one thing, but then as soon as I saw I was headed back to LD, I knew I was doomed. Just a lost week as I'm already 2nd worst record.

Chris Sale - ERA 12.71 so far.
Roy Halladay - ERA 6.05
Matt Kilroy - card I got last season - ERA 7.47
Dave Stieb - 7.71

I feel once one gets reasonably good cards, then it's mostly luck.

I enjoy completing missions and checking the stats of my players, but I agree that it makes no sense when other people's same cards do way better. Some of it may be a skill issue for me, but I doubt that's all of it.

Also, Babe Ruth is such a bad card, 98 Mike Trout can perform just as well. Go, go .156 BA.

usa_hank · 06-30-2025, 09:11 PM

Right? It's crazy how random it is. I can believe a few bad games happen, but 3 seasons of 5+ ERA for Chris Sale, arguably the best LHP in Perfect Team right now, seems statistically anomalous, but it could happen rarely. To have my 6 best cards doing that all at once for multiple seasons??? Seems like something external is affecting the dice rolls at this point.

Who are you rolling with as a catcher?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hawkwing7423

I had the best record in HG in my league, so, of course I was reverse swept winning 2 and losing 3 by a team with 13 fewer wins.

That's one thing, but then as soon as I saw I was headed back to LD, I knew I was doomed. Just a lost week as I'm already 2nd worst record.

Chris Sale - ERA 12.71 so far.
Roy Halladay - ERA 6.05
Matt Kilroy - card I got last season - ERA 7.47
Dave Stieb - 7.71

I feel once one gets reasonably good cards, then it's mostly luck.

I enjoy completing missions and checking the stats of my players, but I agree that it makes no sense when other people's same cards do way better. Some of it may be a skill issue for me, but I doubt that's all of it.

Also, Babe Ruth is such a bad card, 98 Mike Trout can perform just as well. Go, go .156 BA.

Hawkwing7423 · 06-30-2025, 09:20 PM

Honus Wagner in my league is anywhere from .108 to .375 BA.

I've been sporadically using Satchel Paige as a reliever, and his ERAs have ranged from 1.54 to 5.40 over 6 seasons.

I still like my theory that every card has "good years, mediocre years, bad years" but I have no proof at all.

LeeD · 06-30-2025, 11:28 PM

There are probably good years and bad years, but my belief is that there are two other influences. Having second-rate cards means that those cards will be "marked down" at the positions they occupy. If your league has a lot of Griffeys in center field then then the Andrew McCutchens and Eric Davis's and (even worse) Steve Finleys will be extra bad. That would be the algorithm fitting the cards into its stats universe. If Griffey hits a lot then those others have to hit a lot less. The second would be an overall measure of your team in relation to the competition. If your team is noticeably worse than the competition then you should also expect some "extra bad" performances, although I'm not as confident that this is so.

usa_hank · 07-01-2025, 01:43 AM

Yep I get it, there's a normalization that the league does based upon the "best" at each position. But that doesn't actually explain why the same card for other teams hits 100 pts better, has an ERA 2 less, etc. And it's not a sample size of one, it's a sample size of several "years" now where I'm comparing my player to the same player in the same year of the same league. It seems highly improbable that these guys are always the worst in the league.

For instance, my Rod Carew is hitting an abysmal .176 right now. Other teams this season: .267, .286, .429 (woah), .244, .310, .248, .288... why is my Carew consistently awful? Last 3 seasons in LD: .216, .246, .229

Then there's Sheffield: my Sheff this year is hitting .213 / 3 HR. Other teams this season in the same league: .277 / 6,. .257/4, .312/4, .270/4. What?! How is my Sheff always the worst in the league, EVERY season?

Let's hit Sale now. 5.96 ERA, 1W / 4L. I don't think I need to read off the list of what he's doing for most other teams. I'm not the worst in the league here, there's one Sale with an 8.49 ERA (yikes). Still, I'm in the bottom 3 of the league where there are...20+ Sales.

I've got competitive players for LD. I've played this game for years, I know how to field a good team. I've even got a better "chemistry" rating than most of the above teams (doubt it really does anything). But here I am with upper echelon players for LD who have consistently (and enormously) underperformed compared to the others in the league. This can't be luck. There's got to be some hidden (random?) field in every card that affects performance. I can't believe there isn't at this point, and somehow I've gotten the worst luck in my draws.

I know this season is a small sample size of 26 games right now, but these numbers are fitting with the last couple of seasons for these cards for me! I just can't anymore...

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeeD

There are probably good years and bad years, but my belief is that there are two other influences. Having second-rate cards means that those cards will be "marked down" at the positions they occupy. If your league has a lot of Griffeys in center field then then the Andrew McCutchens and Eric Davis's and (even worse) Steve Finleys will be extra bad. That would be the algorithm fitting the cards into its stats universe. If Griffey hits a lot then those others have to hit a lot less. The second would be an overall measure of your team in relation to the competition. If your team is noticeably worse than the competition then you should also expect some "extra bad" performances, although I'm not as confident that this is so.

Big Poppy · 07-01-2025, 12:21 PM

When I had the chance with the folks who run this enjoyable slot machine, proposed each card include a 'performance rating' or band, by league or total, that 'visualizes' that card's week to week activity.

Like Bollinger Bands and other std. deviation in financial markets. So you can look at your Satchel Paige, see highs/lows and mean reversion. Boy, would it affect card shop pricing, There are gems out there but the data is so hard to gather.

Big Poppy · 07-01-2025, 12:42 PM

Only one out of 15 Honus Wagner > .300 in my HS league.

Three demoted to Reserve because they aren't good enough for Active.

No WAR hitting 2.0 or above.

LeeD · Yesterday, 06:52 AM

Truly crazy. I've got Honus hitting .290/.354/.419 and on track for 3.2 WAR in Low Diamond, and this is his worst season so far!

hibees70 · Yesterday, 01:59 PM

Big Poppy talks about “std.deviation in financial markets”.
I know nothing about that but if you had RNG like this in an rpg there would be outrage.
Still love the base game but they’ll get no more money from me.

Big Poppy · Yesterday, 04:10 PM

Mathematically speaking, there is only one kind of RNG. But, in a matrix with dozens of dice roles on dozens of ratings, weightings can be abused.

It is still like the stock market, in that there's a loser for every winner. If every card achieved its potential or historical performance, there would only be winners.

Now complicate everything, with a different pool of teams each season and league, all with supply/demand imbalances (too many Dave Stiebs, too few Randy Johnsons)

usa_hank · Today, 12:14 AM

I like you, you're a stats guy like me (I'm in engineering rather than finance).

Let's just play the hypothetical game here. Let's say the 3 players I mentioned above have performed in the bottom 3rd of the pool of the same players for 3 seasons straight each (which is about right for them for me). For three players to perform in the bottom third pool of their players would be 1/81 chance in a single season (assuming all things equal). For this to happen 3 seasons straight, we're looking at 1/531441 odds. Even if we change the assumption of all things equal (maybe my strategy is awful, who knows), I can't imagine it changes those odds more than 10-20% in either direction. I can't seriously be that unlucky (or maybe I can be that unlucky, judging from the packs I've opened lately lol).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Poppy

Mathematically speaking, there is only one kind of RNG. But, in a matrix with dozens of dice roles on dozens of ratings, weightings can be abused.

It is still like the stock market, in that there's a loser for every winner. If every card achieved its potential or historical performance, there would only be winners.

Now complicate everything, with a different pool of teams each season and league, all with supply/demand imbalances (too many Dave Stiebs, too few Randy Johnsons)

LeeD · Today, 12:29 AM

Pack luck. Slowly I turned...step by step...inch by inch. Mine's been so awful this year that I get to use a Three Stooges reference.

Big Poppy · Today, 07:28 AM

There is also competitor power creep. If your competition is upgrading their teams each week and you aren't, your players get relatively weaker. Especially true early in season at lower levels (when OOTP is selling more widgets). I imagine but don't know if could be worse in second half at higher levels because the whales are doing what whales do.

06-30-2025, 06:14 PM	#1
usa_hank Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2025 Posts: 9	Crazy Bad Performances I can't believe how badly my team is doing in Low Diamond. I've been rattling around in LD, this being the fourth season, and my players just aren't performing. I honestly can't understand why my Sheffield hits .225 and only 15 HR every year when I see him hitting .260+ and 20 HR for everyone else. I can't figure out why my Helton hits .210, or my Rod Carew never hits over .260. I can't figure out why my Chris Sale has an ERA of 5.3 with this being his 3rd season as a starter for me, and a K/9 of 6 (Molina catching). I can't figure out why my Whitey Ford has an ERA of 4.6 over the past 3 seasons in LD, etc. I can only assume people play more RH batters so that's why lefties get hit so hard, but when I look at other teams in my league who have been starting Ford and Sale, they are getting 3.5 ERAs and closer to 8+ K/9. I get there are external factors like men on base and park factors, but...wow. My luck has to be the worst. I feel like Dave Stieb would play better than Sale, and my Tim Raines has outplayed my Sheffield, Helton, Carew, with a consistent .265 avg and around 11 HR, etc. Crazy. We've all been there with bad performances in a year, but this has been year after year for these guys for me! Ugh. Tempted to sell off the team and buy other players.

06-30-2025, 06:37 PM	#2
Hawkwing7423 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2024 Posts: 48	I had the best record in HG in my league, so, of course I was reverse swept winning 2 and losing 3 by a team with 13 fewer wins. That's one thing, but then as soon as I saw I was headed back to LD, I knew I was doomed. Just a lost week as I'm already 2nd worst record. Chris Sale - ERA 12.71 so far. Roy Halladay - ERA 6.05 Matt Kilroy - card I got last season - ERA 7.47 Dave Stieb - 7.71 I feel once one gets reasonably good cards, then it's mostly luck. I enjoy completing missions and checking the stats of my players, but I agree that it makes no sense when other people's same cards do way better. Some of it may be a skill issue for me, but I doubt that's all of it. Also, Babe Ruth is such a bad card, 98 Mike Trout can perform just as well. Go, go .156 BA. Last edited by Hawkwing7423; 06-30-2025 at 06:44 PM.

07-01-2025, 12:42 PM	#8
Big Poppy Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 260	Only one out of 15 Honus Wagner > .300 in my HS league. Three demoted to Reserve because they aren't good enough for Active. No WAR hitting 2.0 or above. Attached Images

Yesterday, 04:10 PM	#11
Big Poppy Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 260	Mathematically speaking, there is only one kind of RNG. But, in a matrix with dozens of dice roles on dozens of ratings, weightings can be abused. It is still like the stock market, in that there's a loser for every winner. If every card achieved its potential or historical performance, there would only be winners. Now complicate everything, with a different pool of teams each season and league, all with supply/demand imbalances (too many Dave Stiebs, too few Randy Johnsons) Last edited by Big Poppy; Yesterday at 04:16 PM.

06-30-2025, 09:20 PM	#4
Hawkwing7423 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2024 Posts: 48	Honus Wagner in my league is anywhere from .108 to .375 BA. I've been sporadically using Satchel Paige as a reliever, and his ERAs have ranged from 1.54 to 5.40 over 6 seasons. I still like my theory that every card has "good years, mediocre years, bad years" but I have no proof at all.

06-30-2025, 11:28 PM	#5
LeeD All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 716	There are probably good years and bad years, but my belief is that there are two other influences. Having second-rate cards means that those cards will be "marked down" at the positions they occupy. If your league has a lot of Griffeys in center field then then the Andrew McCutchens and Eric Davis's and (even worse) Steve Finleys will be extra bad. That would be the algorithm fitting the cards into its stats universe. If Griffey hits a lot then those others have to hit a lot less. The second would be an overall measure of your team in relation to the competition. If your team is noticeably worse than the competition then you should also expect some "extra bad" performances, although I'm not as confident that this is so.

07-01-2025, 12:21 PM	#7
Big Poppy Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 260	When I had the chance with the folks who run this enjoyable slot machine, proposed each card include a 'performance rating' or band, by league or total, that 'visualizes' that card's week to week activity. Like Bollinger Bands and other std. deviation in financial markets. So you can look at your Satchel Paige, see highs/lows and mean reversion. Boy, would it affect card shop pricing, There are gems out there but the data is so hard to gather.

Yesterday, 06:52 AM	#9
LeeD All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 716	Truly crazy. I've got Honus hitting .290/.354/.419 and on track for 3.2 WAR in Low Diamond, and this is his worst season so far!

Yesterday, 01:59 PM	#10
hibees70 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Edinburgh,Scotland Posts: 68	Big Poppy talks about “std.deviation in financial markets”. I know nothing about that but if you had RNG like this in an rpg there would be outrage. Still love the base game but they’ll get no more money from me.

Today, 12:29 AM	#13
LeeD All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 716	Pack luck. Slowly I turned...step by step...inch by inch. Mine's been so awful this year that I get to use a Three Stooges reference.

Today, 07:28 AM	#14
Big Poppy Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 260	There is also competitor power creep. If your competition is upgrading their teams each week and you aren't, your players get relatively weaker. Especially true early in season at lower levels (when OOTP is selling more widgets). I imagine but don't know if could be worse in second half at higher levels because the whales are doing what whales do.