Last Two SP Spots Open

[Larryk007]

All things equal, does the type of pitches make a better pitcher?
My last two SP spots are up for grabs. Based on 20-80 scale, my SP candidates are all RHP 45 45 45 Stamin about 50.
So, the question is, does the type of pitches they throw make a difference?
L/R Splits seem to be not a factor.
Thoughts?

[MisterTidster]

Originally Posted by Larryk007

All things equal, does the type of pitches make a better pitcher?
My last two SP spots are up for grabs. Based on 20-80 scale, my SP candidates are all RHP 45 45 45 Stamin about 50.
So, the question is, does the type of pitches they throw make a difference?
L/R Splits seem to be not a factor.
Thoughts?

Personally, I think looking at their stats will tell you a lot. Some guys with similar ratings just don’t put up the numbers. If they’re both AAA, the one with the better numbers generally will do better. I’ll often make a lot of these types of decisions based on spring training stats as well… if they have a rocky first month of the season, I send em back down, but putting up good numbers generally is a good indicator of how they’ll do right away and doing good right away seems to improve the likelihood of development. I’ve chosen two star overall guys that put up numbers over two and a half star guys that don’t put up numbers, but my scout loves. Also if you have both players on your current roster and ask the coach to set up your pitching staff and one guy gets set as middle relief and the other is long relief, that can be an additional factor in your decision, but not super reliable.

Stats I value most when evaluating…

1) FIP and FIP+ Generally FIP+ is the easiest to use… it sets the league average for the league the stats are associated with at 100, anything above 100 is that percentage above average and anything below 100 is that percentage below average. So a guy with a 160 FIP+ is 60% above average and a guy with a 75 FIP+ is 25% below average. Seems to be a better evaluation tool than WAR, since a player with more usage will have a higher WAR than a more productive, but less used player.

2. BB/9. It makes comparison of two pitchers with different usage easier than just total BB. If two players are rated similarly by your scout based on control, but one player consistently has significantly better (lower) BB/9 at comparable levels, I trust the stats more than I trust my scout.

3. HR/9. Over the course of the season a pitcher can have a lower HR/9 than a similar pitcher while being less productive than than his counterpart over the course of the season, so giving up less home runs doesn’t necessarily make a pitcher better, however, high HR/9 guys (if all else is equal) tend to have more of a mix of great outings and horrible outings. They’ll kill you in the playoffs! A playoff series is a small sample size, so one terrible inning from a reliever can sink a playoff game and often in those close games you’d rather have a guy that’s “meh” than a guy that’s either great or terrible.

[Larryk007]

Excellent reply!!!
Yes, agree there is more than the scout can tell you; your points are well made.

I do look at types and how many pitches each similar rated pitcher has.
Do you know how the game decides which pitch is used more? I see one of my pitchers has less than average fastball and change up, but his cutter is 60!

In a game just completed the same pitcher got the last out on the cutter. So is there a way to use that cutter more often?

[MisterTidster]

Originally Posted by Larryk007

Excellent reply!!!
Yes, agree there is more than the scout can tell you; your points are well made.

I do look at types and how many pitches each similar rated pitcher has.
Do you know how the game decides which pitch is used more? I see one of my pitchers has less than average fastball and change up, but his cutter is 60!

In a game just completed the same pitcher got the last out on the cutter. So is there a way to use that cutter more often?

I don’t have a good grasp on those mechanics. ��

Edit to add: I have been planning on targeting and developing pitchers with certain arsenals to see if it makes a difference.

Baseball Savant has a sortable pitch arsenal leaderboard for current players and you can see what common arsenals top pitchers have. For example the current top three cutters (Clase, Doval, Ashcraft) all have good sliders as their second pitch and Clase and Doval have good sinkers as a third. I kind of want to see if developing pitchers with arsenals similar to top MLB pitchers will make any difference. Will chime back in down the line after I find out.

[Larryk007]

Thanks, always appreciate your efforts!