Accuracy

[Edward ohare]

Originally Posted by uruguru

Plus or minus 50 points in batting average should not shock you.

Sometimes you will have a guy who hit 25 homers in 100 games played end up playing a full season and hitting 60 homers.

There is a tremendous amount of RNG in this game.

That difference doesn't shock me at all. I'm not surprised that my complete and verifiable data varies more than that data provided in other situations.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by Edward ohare

That difference doesn't shock me at all. I'm not surprised that my complete and verifiable data varies more than that data provided in other situations.

I want to make clear that the RNG variability I am talking about is from sim to sim, not sim to reality.

The game's accuracy to the real world is best tested with the standard, single-season real-lineups real-transactions, etc, but very few people actually play that way.

The real test is how much does the game vary in more casual sims, where the sims have the same configuration?

For example, let's say you backup a season on Opening Day and re-run it repeatedly. There is a large pool of players in the league and you will inevitably find some with 50 point swings in their batting averages. In addition, teams will routinely win +10 or -10 games from some expected mean. And occasionally you will see that +20 or -20 games as you test with more sims (yes, I have done this).

So, sim-to-sim, there is a lot of variability in the game. This is why I tell people not to get too hung up when their team falls short in the standings. Sometimes the baseball gods just flipped the coin and it came up tails for you.