Pack Odds

[bdawg]

I seem to have really bad luck this year (hmmmmm). I've often saved up my PT points to buy 25 packs at once (you know, that convenient "buy 25" button). I can't even tell you how many times I've ended up getting no silver or above.

I'm a math guy, and I did the math on the odds of that.

If one pack has the odds: Bronze 1:5, Silver 1:20, Gold 1:50, Diamond 1:150, Perfect 1:1000 -

44.6% odds of opening 10 packs with no silver or above players
13.2% odds of opening 25 packs with no silver or above players

I literally have opened 25 packs in a row several times, and gotten no silvers or above. At 13.2% odds...I find it odd to think I'm THAT unlucky several times over, and just in this year's game. Never had that happen previous years.

(I don't buy silver packs anymore, because I find I just get the same old silver players who are worthless in most of these packs - I'd rather just open twice as many packs in the hopes I get someone worth using in PT)

[HRBaker]

Originally Posted by bdawg

I seem to have really bad luck this year (hmmmmm). I've often saved up my PT points to buy 25 packs at once (you know, that convenient "buy 25" button). I can't even tell you how many times I've ended up getting no silver or above.

I'm a math guy, and I did the math on the odds of that.

If one pack has the odds: Bronze 1:5, Silver 1:20, Gold 1:50, Diamond 1:150, Perfect 1:1000 -

44.6% odds of opening 10 packs with no silver or above players
13.2% odds of opening 25 packs with no silver or above players

I literally have opened 25 packs in a row several times, and gotten no silvers or above. At 13.2% odds...I find it odd to think I'm THAT unlucky several times over, and just in this year's game. Never had that happen previous years.

(I don't buy silver packs anymore, because I find I just get the same old silver players who are worthless in most of these packs - I'd rather just open twice as many packs in the hopes I get someone worth using in PT)

Sounds like you and I have the same crappy luck. Last year I had terrible luck = this year a bit better to start, but the last 6 weeks all I've gotten is a lot of Dups to re-sell. Maybe tonight...

[bdawg]

Originally Posted by HRBaker

Sounds like you and I have the same crappy luck. Last year I had terrible luck = this year a bit better to start, but the last 6 weeks all I've gotten is a lot of Dups to re-sell. Maybe tonight...

I'd like to see the true odds, as I'm skeptical of the provided in-game odds. Why do I say that? Because it seems you have a chance to draw any ranking of card with the 5 random cards in a pack (the 6th card is determined by the pack you buy). Let's look at Bronze cards for instance. So to accurately state you have a 1/5 chance per pack of receiving a bronze card, the true odds per card of receiving bronze card would have to be: 4.36475% per card. Again, this assumes there's a "per card" chance.

If the odds are actually per card in the code, and the devs are providing a 4% chance per card of receiving a bronze, that's completely inaccurate and is not actually providing full stated odds to customers. Odds are not additive in this case since each card has a chance to be bronze. We could extrapolate and do the same for Silver, which actually shows you would have a 0.5% more likely chance of pulling a silver if 1.0102% were accurately used per card instead of 1.0% per card, but every bit helps and I'm sure you wouldn't want a casino usurping that 0.5% of your odds of hitting a bet now would you?

There might be another factor here that I'm not taking into account - the "bonus roll." Maybe they actually do provide a 1:5 chance per pack, and if that 20% hits then they might have some extra "roll" allowing more than 1 bronze to appear. I offer this because there was a time a couple years ago that I drew 2 perfects in a pack. The odds of that happening on a per-card odds basis are like hitting a jackpot in the lottery, vs if the devs offer the per-pack odds then a special "bonus" roll to see if you get more than 1 of that same type of card in the pack.

[bailey]

A few things are broken in this game, but pack odds is not one of them.

The stated odds are per card, so 1:5 for bronze translates to 20% chance per card not 4.36475%.

[bdawg]

Originally Posted by bailey

A few things are broken in this game, but pack odds is not one of them.

The stated odds are per card, so 1:5 for bronze translates to 20% chance per card not 4.36475%.

There's no way that's per card. Then my odds of opening 25 packs and not getting a single silver (which has happened twice now) would be 0.16%, or 1 out of every 625-ish times that someone opens 25 packs. If you are correct and the listed odds are supposed to be per card, then something IS broken with pack odds. Suggest folks start logging/counting their pack drops and let's fine out.

[Fabtron7]

Originally Posted by bdawg

There's no way that's per card. Then my odds of opening 25 packs and not getting a single silver (which has happened twice now) would be 0.16%, or 1 out of every 625-ish times that someone opens 25 packs. If you are correct and the listed odds are supposed to be per card, then something IS broken with pack odds. Suggest folks start logging/counting their pack drops and let's fine out.

People have done it many times on the discord and over a large sample size the odds always work out as they are posted (and they are for sure per-card). The hot and cold streaks can we really crazy though.

[dawggieR]

It can feel like you're rolling the dice and hoping for the best. I think the fun is in the thrill of not knowing, but it can also get frustrating if it feels like you’re always on the unlucky side. Some people say sticking to a budget helps because it keeps things fun without overdoing it. If you’re into sports betting, platforms like 벳365코리아 sometimes offer better odds or more transparency, which could be a nice change of pace compared to random pack openings.

At the end of the day, though, it’s all about how much enjoyment you’re getting out of it. Sometimes, taking a break and coming back later can make the experience feel fresh again.