The 2023 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

Bring on Detroit...



The Rays ended up romping in this one, blowing out Boston 10-1 although it was closer than it looked. It was a 1-1 affair until the 5th when the Rays erupted for 4 runs on an RBI double from Kyle Teel, an RBI single from Mike Brown, and a 2-run homer from Fernando Tatis Jr (the first RBIs from their 3-4-5 hitters in this series), and then Boston brought the tying run to the plate in the 7th before Jose Alvarado got out of it. They then put it away in the 8th on Brailer Guerrero's grand slam, capping a great ALDS for the rookie after taking over for the injured Jackson Chourio and winning the series MVP in the process. Also worthy of mention is Garrett Lambert, who was truly outstanding in his start. It's back to the top of the rotation to start the ALCS with Ricky Tiedemann toeing the rubber at the Trop.

And in the deciding NLDS game:



It was upset city in the NL as both the wild card winners won in the NLDS with the Padres to face the Phillies. In fact the Rays are the only team to have a bye and continue on to the LCS.

[Art Deco]

An ugly start...



The Rays were served up a reminder of their recent past as Patrick Bailey, part of their catching tandem for the previous six seasons, went 4-5 with a big 3-run homer that canceled out a 3-run Ben Schmidt shot in the 1st and helped send the Tigers on their way to a 9-6 Game 1 ALCS victory. Schmidt ended up with a pair of homers and 4 RBI after a quiet ALDS and his second homer was the part of a back-to-back-to-back in the 8th that brought the Rays within 3 but as close as they'd get. Now Emiliano Teodo will hope to improve on the club's woeful Game 1 performance on the mound in tomorrow's affair.

Meanwhile a great start for San Diego in the NLCS:





Jesse Bullard joins a select few who have hit 3 homers in a postseason game, the first to do so since Enrique Hernandez in 2017.

[Art Deco]

Evened up going to Motown...



The Rays got another great start from Emiliano Teodo and just enough offense to beat the Tigers 4-2 and even up the ALCS at a game apiece. Cody Schrier hit his first homer of the postseason to get things rolling, and Subaru Nakashima's 2-run double was the key hit of the game. The bullpen pitched well until the 9th when Norge Vera had a shaky save, giving up a leadoff homer and putting two more men on before getting the tough Max Clark to ground out to end the game. Ryan Pepiot will take the ball for Game 3 in Detroit.

[Art Deco]

Down in Detroit...



Max Clark may not have come through in the 9th inning of Game 2 with the contest on the line but he more than made up for it in Game 3, tormenting Tampa Bay by going 3-4 with a homer, 2 steals and 2 RBI to lead his Tigers to a 5-2 win and a 2-1 ALCS lead. The offense wasn't there for the Rays, outside of Brailer Guerrero going 3-for-3 an Owen Paino solo homer and Cody Schrier RBI triple was it. Garrett Lambert will try to keep the Rays from falling into a deep hole in tomorrow's Game 4.

Well it's all over in the NLCS as the Padres showed there's no such thing as momentum, sweeping the Phillies who came into the series having swept the Wild Card and NLDS arounds:





Jesse Bullard, he of the 3 homers in Game 2, was named series MVP.

[Art Deco]

Backs to the wall...



Once again the Rays came up short in Detroit, and now they're faced with the unenviable task of having to win three straight games to accomplish their goal of reaching the World Series. Today it turned in the 5th when Garrett Lambert put two men on with one out and Aaron Ashby failed big-time, loading the bases and walking in a run before giving up a 2-run single that put Detroit ahead to stay. And the offense came up wanting again tonight, especially after Detroit starter Gunder Weighorst walked 7 men and they could only convert for two runs. So it's down to Ricky Tiedemann, who's had a bit of a star-crossed season and was roughed up in Game 1. Perhaps he'll write a new chapter.

[Art Deco]

Ah, ah, ah, ah, stayin' alive...



After 3 innings and another rough start from Ricky Tiedemann which quickly put them down 3-0 the Rays were heading to the gallows, ready to lick their wounds for a winter of introspection. They may yet be headed there, but it won't be for a least a couple of more days as they bounced back against Detroit ace Eric Groth to take a 10-4 win and bring the series back to St. Petersburg for a Game 6. Kyle Teel's 2-run double in the 6th gave them new life at 3-3, and the AI Detroit manager left Groth in well past his sell-by date as he was over 105 pitches when Owen Paino singled in the go-ahead run and at 112 when Mike Brown took him yard to make it 6-3. And after Detroit cut the lead to 6-4 the Rays broke it open in the 8th in a most unusual fashion: with two out and nobody on rookie Camron Gentry, who made his MLB debut the night before as a pinch-hitter, batted for the struggling Jeffry Rosa and delivered a single up the middle and seven unretired batters later Tampa Bay had 4 more runs. The lefty-swinging Gentry is the polar opposite of the slugging-with-very-low-contact Rosa, he's 80 contact against righties but 35 power. So it's the Trop to which we return and here's hoping Emiliano Teodo can duplicate his excellent Game 2 outing.

[Art Deco]

At least it was over early...



The good feelings lasted for an inning as Mason Auer singled, stole second and scored on a sac fly to give the Rays a 1-0 lead after the first but it all went downhill from there as the Tigers crushed the Rays 11-3 to win the ALCS and set up a rematch of the 1984 World Series with San Diego. Emiliano Teodo, brilliant in his first two postseason outings, was far from that today giving up 4 in the 2nd and loading the bases in the 3rd where Brock Porter let everybody score and that was pretty much it. Yet another disappointing playoff end for the Rays, who have still yet to win it all in this save.

[Art Deco]

Revenge for 1984...



Former Ray Kevin Alcantara was named World Series MVP as he was 6-19 with 2 HR and 8 RBI in the 5 games.

[Art Deco]

Once again our quest for a ring came up short as this is the one long-running Rays save I've yet to break through with. For 2032 most of the high-powered offense returns but we're going to have some issues with the pitching. The following significant players will be free agents: Jackson Chourio, Ryan Pepiot (who opted out of the last year of his deal), Ricky Tiedemann, Jose Alvarado, and Ben Joyce. With those guys gone, we're looking at the following salary obligations:



This group adds up to about $163M in payroll and Stu Sternberg has given us $180M so not a lot of breathing room unless we move some of these guys.

The position-by-position outlook:

Catcher: There's no question Kyle Teel was an improvement over Zion Rose after the former came over at the deadline. The question is it an improvement worth paying $14M for next season? That would be the biggest chunk of salary we could free up for say, a starting pitcher. Stay tuned. If Teel goes, Rose gets another crack at starter and Cade Arrambide is back as the backup.

First Base: Mike Brown returns.

Second Base: Owen Paino is back, and his likely platoon-mate and backup MI is righty-hitting Bryce Clavon although Luis Almeyda is still around as well.

Shortstop: Cody Schrier had a great season (4.2 WAR) last year and the job is his, although it will cost us more.

Third Base: Fernando Tatis Jr. made the transition back to the dirt with aplomb last year and there's no need to change that (unless we're somehow able to grab a high-quality 3B and move him back to fill the Chourio hole)

Infield: As mentioned Clavon looks like the backup but Almeyda and the fallen Ethan Holliday are still around.

Left Field: We can't afford to bring Chourio back (although we'll make him the $24.4M qualifying offer to get a pick and hope he doesn't take it). So for now the plan is to do what we did in playoffs while Chourio was injured: platoon Brailer Guerrero and Mason Auer. Dean Moss, who hit 35 HR at AAA last year and has MLB-ready power, could get a look as well.

Center Field: Subaru Nakashima was an instant hit coming over from Japan and will man the position for the foreseeable future.

Right Field: Ben Schmidt was a great acquisition and also should be patrolling our outfield for years to come.

Outfield: Auer is the main backup here and Tatis and Rosa can also fill in.

DH: Jeffry Rosa is the incumbent and a backup OF but he disappointed last year, hitting .228 and striking out 228 times (I wonder how often anyone has pulled off that identical-number combo in the past) while hitting 6 fewer homes in 199 more AB. And now he's due to make $6M in arbitration so I might considering moving him depending on what I could replace him with.

Rotation: Here's where the big hits take place as we lose both Tiedemann and Pepiot and weren't that deep to begin with. Emiliano Teodo, Aaron Ashby and Garrett Lambert return so that's a start. Chang-hyoek Kim, exiled to Durham last year, has the inside track on the 4th spot but there's no clear plan for #5 so we'll probably have to acquire a starter. Brock Porter, picked up on waivers and used in the pen, is capable of starting although he's a 40 stamina guy. Closer Norge Vera is also capable of starting but we'll leave him where he is.

Bullpen: We'll miss Alvarado as the top lefty but still have Magdiel Cotto and Geudis Ramos from the port side. Vera returns to close and the likes of Yeuris Jimenez, Fernando Perez, Fernando Costume and Juan Nunez are back as well. One more arm can't hurt though but it's not going to be a key priority. Former closer Matthew Peguero will be non-tendered so that frees up $4.5M.

Prospects: No immediate help other than perhaps Moss.

The to-do list in order of priority:

1) Find a starting pitcher or two
2) Clear some salary by dealing Teel and/or Rosa
3) Possibly improve on the Guerrero/Auer platoon in LF
4) Add a bullpen arm or catcher to job-share with Rose

[Art Deco]

The retirements:

Notables: Aaron Nola, Dylan Cease, Anthony Rendon, Matt Olson, Kris Bryant, Sandy Alcantara, Corbin Burnes, Daulton Varsho, Eloy Jimenez, Brandon Woodruff, Cedric Mullins, Francisco Lindor.

Former Rays: Brendan McKay, Manuel Margot, Jeffrey Springs, Jalen Beeks, Shane McClanahan.

Trades, trades, we made trades:



Seattle was making Satiro available and we said "why not?" when all they wanted was a mid-level catching prospect in Bader. Satiro is a 24-year-old 1B who made his MLB debut last year and is rated 60 contact and 65 power with 65/70 potential. He's a RH hitter as well and could be a potential Rosa replacement should we trade our DH.



Over the objections of my AGM we traded from our glut of MIs and acquired a potential starting LF in Edwards as we dialed up our friends in Seattle again (just like real life!). Edwards has been up for parts of the last 3 seasons with the Mariners and last year was his best, hitting 279/351/447 in 215 AB with 6 HR and 31 RBI. I like his ratings profile:



and he's a switch-hitter so he doesn't need to be platooned. Guerrero and Auer will have a run for their money.



Former closer Peguero is coming off arm surgery and wasn't going to be tendered, so I shopped him around and found a taker in the Cubs who gave us a decent 2B prospect (even though we have some guys there). He was on the Cubs' 40-man so he has to go on ours but he hasn't played above A+ ball; he has 55 contact and 65 power potential so hopefully he comes on in the next year or two to justify that 40-man spot.

Awards season:

Gold Glove: No winners on the Rays but none expected.

Reliever of the Year: Tight race in the AL with Detroit's Andre Scrubb (16/122) edging out Seattle's Andres Munoz (14/118). Scrubb had a 1.61 ERA with 43 saves and 95 whiffs in 67 IP. In the NL the winner was Miami's Bayant Melo, who saved 39 with a 1.59 ERA and 86 Ks in 68 IP.

Silver Slugger: Three Rays took home the honors - Mike Brown (1B), Fernando Tatis Jr (3B) and Ben Schmidt (RF).

Rookie of the Year: In the AL it was Sube-nanimous:



The vote was also unanimous in the NL as Miami RF Christopher Diaz took the honors off a .294-24-72, 3.9-WAR season.

Cy Young: No surprise in the AL as Cleveland's Prince Lovette was unanimous, having won the pitching triple crown 16 wins, 264 Ks and a 2.60 ERA. No Rays hurlers got votes. In the NL Oliver Roque of the Cubs also got all 30 first-place votes thanks to a 13-4, 1.80 season with 254 Ks in 174 IP and his 8.8 led all pitchers in MLB.

MVP: Can you hear the cheers, Fernando?



It was the first MVP of Tatis' stellar career and he missed out on unanimity as one vote went to Cleveland's Lovette (who admittedly had more WAR). As you can see, Schmidt and Nakashima made it a Rays sweep of the top 3.

Unanimity seemed to be the theme of this year's awards and it was the unsurprising case in the NL as Colorado's Jack Ruckert had a 9.4-WAR season and hit an absurd (and Coors-aided) 378/449/705, leading MLB in all three triple-slash categories and driving in 155 runs in 143 games with 44 homers as well. For those wondering, Ruckert was a still-impressive 350/424/662 on the road so he was far from a creation of his home field. He also put up 9.4 WAR despite having an -11.7 ZR at 2B so offensively he was over 10.

November 20: Time for another trade, and time to dump Teel's salary:



Chapman is an intriguing pitcher who could contend for a starting role. He's a soft-tossing groundballer and we have an iffy defense, so that's my major qualm but he does boast 65 movement and control. He only has 60 innings of MLB experience but we'll give him a shot. Affeldt (not the guy who pitched from 2002-2015) is a similarly-profiled reliever who's off to the minors and doesn't need to go on the 40-man.

November 26: We lost our arbitration cases with Cody Schrier and Jeffry Rosa and as a result we're on the hook for $1.3M more than expected. Still may try and trade Rosa. Also Jackson Chourio declined our $24.4M qualifying offer as expected so we'll net a supplemental 1st rounder when he signs.

November 29: Time for a big trade:



Originally I was going to move Jeffry Rosa to free up salary, but instead we took on a little more since we were up to $38M available after trading Kyle Teel. And we have Teel's replacement in Basallo, one of the premier power-hitting backstops in MLB coming off consecutive seasons of 29 homers. He isn't the defender Teel is, but his power will make up for most of what Rosa did and Rosa's replacement + Basallo should provide much more power that Teel + Rosa. The frontrunner at DH is now the guy we acquired in the first trade, Satiro. Still on the prowl for a starting pitcher though.

December 4: And here's the trade for a starter:



Duran is a rental for 2032 but is coming off a solid 9-8, 3.71 season and two years ago led the NL in ERA at 2.83. He's rated 60/55/50 and should be a solid replacement for Ryan Pepiot. The two CF prospects we gave up project to be 4th OF-types.

December 6: First big free-agent signing of the winter as slugging 1B Nick Kurtz joins Atlanta on an 8/232 deal.

December 7: And there goes the first of our free agents as SP Ricky Tiedemann signs with the Mets for 4/90. New York also signed legendary 37-year-old slugger and crosstown rival Aaron Judge for 2/68.

December 9: Star catcher Diego Cartaya, a mainstay of some good Pittsburgh teams over the past several seasons, signed with Cleveland on a 5/119 deal.

December 11: Atlanta signed this year's Subuaru Nakashima - the winter's top MLB-ready international pro free agent, Cuban defector Alejandro Carrillo on a 8/273 deal. "The Skull" as he's known, Carrillo is a 60 contact, 70 power, 80 runner with 70 defense in CF, a ready-made superstar.

December 13: And there goes Ryan Pepiot, off to free-spending Atlanta for 4/91.

December 15: Not only have the Mets been signing some big free agents but they also won the draft lottery, moving up for #7 to #1.

December 22: Added P Jeremy Affeldt and OF Nelson Maldonado to the 40-man roster. Affeldt of course came in over in a trade last month and Maldonado is a pretty decent OF prospect even if he isn't quite the top one he once was.

December 23: The Rule 5 Draft came and went and we only lost veteran SP Jeremy Beasley, who pitched to a 5.50 ERA at Durham this season.

December 24: Future Hall of Famer Mike Trout is on the move again, back to sunny California after the 40-year-old spent a solid season in New York with the Mets, hitting 35 HR with 94 RBI and 3.5 WAR. The Mets dealt him to San Diego for 4 minor leaguers.

December 30: Brief former Ray Vlad Guerrero Jr. is Texas-bound, thanks to a 5/128 deal.

[Art Deco]

January 1: The Dodgers kicked off the new year by signing our last big free agent Jackson Chourio to a 6/126 deal. This will net us a supplemental first-round in this year's draft.

January 3: Veteran lefty Nestor Cortes inked a 1-year, $11.2M pact with St. Louis.

January 7: The Hall of Fame voting is in:



Congrats to CC Sabathia, in on the 8th year of trying. No such luck in this reality for Joe Mauer, who's going to need an 11-12% boost next year to keep his dream alive. Thought deGrom would do better than 34% on his first ballot but CC can serve as an inspirational example.

January 12: Decided to make another deal:



Bullpen upgrades are always welcomed and Crochet gives us a power lefty to replace the departed Jose Alvarado. This will move Magdiel Cotto back to the 6th/7th-inning lefty role in which he thrived last season. Crafter is a 5th starter at best who will handicapped by his ceiling of 35 movement.

January 13: Longtime Houston Astro Alex Bregman will be wearing different colors in 2032 as the club dealt him to the Kansas City Wings. The 38-year-old is in the twilight of his career and was only good for 0.2 WAR last year.

January 23: It's international amateur free agent signing time and we nabbed a good one in 16-year-old Dominican David Barbaran. The youngster has 70 potential contact and 75 potential HR power.

January 27: Owner Stu Sternberg has loosed the purse strings and is making an additional $14M available for payroll. Still could use another starting pitcher.

January 28: Old friend Jose Alvarado signed a 1/5.3 deal with the White Sox.

February 4: Signed another interesting amateur IFA in Arturo Murgia, another 16-year-old Dominican. Potential 60 contact, HR power and eye and potential 70 gap power as well as potentially a plus corner OF.

February 5: Another member of last year's Rays bullpen found a new home as Ben Joyce joined Oakland for a healthy 2/18.

March 5: Some bad injury news as new acquisition Nate Chapman tore his labrum and the righty will be out five months. Right now he was projected in long relief but was important rotation depth.

March 6: We were proactive in replacing Chapman, making a deal:



Ellis is a lefty starter coming off a tough 10-12, 6.31 season but was 12-9, 3.27 with 3.2 WAR the year before and is rated 65/55/45. A lot of last year's problems were due to a .325 BABIP so my best guess is that Ellis is somewhere between 2030 and 2031 which would make him a pretty decent 5th starter. Wasn't completely thrilled about giving up Cook but he's out for the season and was due for $4.5M in arbitration next year, making him an iffy tender candidate for 2033.

[Art Deco]

Aside from the Chapman injury spring training was largely uneventful, but we had some guys out of options that weren't going to make the team that we had to put on waivers. The toughest call in that department was Fernando Costume, who has been a middle relief stalwart for us the last several seasons but was the odd man out. Also power-hitting OF Tommy Specht and lefty reliever Geudis Ramos were made available to the league but hopefully in the mass waivers to start the year the three of them get overlooked.

Those moves leave the Opening Day roster as such:

C-Basallo, Rose
1B-M.Brown
2B-Paino
SS-Schrier
3B-Tatis
IF-Clavon
LF-Mitchell
CF-Nakashima
RF-B.Schmidt
OF-Auer, B.Guerrero
DH-Satiro

Clavon will platoon with Paino at times at 2B, and Mitchell is the LF starter for now but Auer and Guerrero will mix in.

SP-Teodo, Lambert, Duran, Ashby, Kim
LR-C.Ellis (L)
MR-Porter, J.Nunez, F.Perez, Cotto, Y.Jimenez
SU-Vodnik, Crochet (L)
CL-Vera

Ashby is the 4th starter for now but given his stamina issues I may go to Ellis and make Ashby the long reliever.

So what to the preseason predictions think of this roster? Not much, apparently:



77-85? Man I look forward to proving them wrong.

How it went Opening Day:



What a wild ride as a pair of brand-new Rays led them to a crazy 9-8 Opening Day victory. As you can see above new boy Joe Edwards became an instant fan favorite with a massive 4-5, 5-RBI day including a 2-run homer in the 9th to win it. Also instrumental was another newcomer Geronimo Satiro, whose homer leading off the 9th tied the game and was his third hit and third run of the game. Edwards and Satiro got Garrett Crochet off the hook as his Rays debut was a disaster, giving up 3 runs on a pair of homers in the 8th after being entrusted with a 6-4 lead. The Rays were also burned by their former mate Jeffry Rosa, whose 2-run homer for Baltimore in the 5th erased an early 4-2 Rays lead. Hopefully the pitching settles in some as I don't think I can take a steady diet of games like this, but 1-0 beats the hell out of 0-1.

[Art Deco]

Record: 17-9
First place AL East, 1 1/2 ahead of Boston

A very good - if streaky - opening month for the Rays. They started off 10-3, only to lose 5 straight games then turned it around and reeled off 7 consecutive wins before losing on April's final day.







Nothing complain about here - the offense is kicking butt across the board, and the pitching has been quite good, especially the bullpen. Even the defense has been middle-of-the-pack, which is good for this franchise. Only quibble are all the walks, which I'll get to in the pitching section.



Subaru and Tatis picking up where they left off last season and perhaps even doing better, especially the former. After a slow start through the first week or so Basallo has bashed the ball like we'd hoped/expected and Satiro has lived up to billing as well so the new guys are definitely working out. Poor Brailer Guerrero, though - can't get any ABs.



Duran was our big pitching acquisition this past winter and it's doubtful he could have had a better month than he did. Ellis was been brilliant in middle/long relief and is ready to step into the rotation should we need him. There have been some issues though - Kim has been hit hard at time but is the victim of a .363 BABIP while Lambert has really struggled. The .382 BABIP hasn't done him any favors but 12 walks and 5 homers in 22 IP are on him. The good news is that he was very good in his last start so hopefully it's a blip. Crochet has also been rough in relief but a lot of that was in his first several appearances as well and he was better late in the month.



No can't-miss guys here, but #17 Moss is off to a ridiculous start (he is 26 after all):



Moss has 65 MLB HR power with 50 contact and a 55 eye so he's more than capable of playing in the bigs but if Brailer can't even get ABs where would I find them for Moss? Meanwhile we've got another guy raking on the farm:



Schwartz came over last winter from the Cubs for Matthew Peguero and has lit things up. He's potential 65 power and 50 contact at 2B and I have no idea why he isn't even ranked in our top 100 prospects. I'd have him top 10 at least.

[Art Deco]

Record: 29-25 (12-16 for the month)
2nd place AL East, 3 behind Boston; First Wild Card

As you can see from the record it's been a tough month and it ended on a tough note with the Rays in the throes of a 6-game losing streak after going through a 5-game skid earlier in May. Most of the losses on the streak have been one-run games and/or games they've blown in the late innings, making it even more frustrating. The bullpen was good in April but has been terrible this month and with the exception of a couple of hot hitters the offense has struggled as well. Also this team probably needs one more starting pitcher. Onto the gory details:





Just barely clinging to the top wild card.



This team is really hard to figure out. On the one hand, we're 4 games behind out Pythagorean record which makes sense given the close games and blown games of late. On the other, I have no idea how we're first in the league in runs scored despite being 12th in AVG and OBP and only 7th in SLG. 5th in HR and 1st in SB helps but it still doesn't seem to add up. And the starting pitching has been brutal while the bullpen ERA is a bit deceiving considering some of the games lost. Throw in some highly mediocre defense and that's how you get a 12-16 month.



These are not pretty numbers. I knew Basallo was slumping but didn't realize it was this bad (7 for 78). Schmidt has been a zero as well and even top-hitting regular Tatis didn't get going until the second half of the month when he hit 5 of his 6 homers. You'll notice no regular hit higher than .267, which is kind of tough to do with the short sample of a month.



Ashby got hurt early in the month so Ellis moved into the rotation where his results were mixed at best. Kim has been so bad that when Ashby came back at the end of the month it was he who lost his rotation spot. At least Lambert bounced back from a brutal April. The middle relievers were great this month but back-end guys Crochet and Vera struggled mightily and cost us a couple of games at least.

We'll update the prospect rankings next month since little has changed since last time but Dean Moss continues to rake at Durham: 333/409/799 with 26 HR and 56 RBI in 52 games. The way things are going it may not be long before he gets a recall. Also our 2029 first-rounder had a nice month at AA:

[Art Deco]

Record: 40-39 (11-14 for the month)
2nd place AL East, 3 behind Baltimore; 1/2 game out of third wild card

I scoffed at the BNN preseason prediction of 77-85 for this team but after a second straight losing month and a dip to ~.500 it's beginning to look quite prescient. We are a whopping 7 games below our Pythagorean record so this team is presumably better than its record, but between difficulties scoring of late and some games blown by the bullpen we're in a swamp of mediocrity at the moment. The details of another ugly month:



The league standings:



We'd been lucky that the team we were fighting with, Boston, was mired in a slump just as bad but that allowed Baltimore to seize the division by getting hot so it's no longer an option to coast along at .500 and be in contention.



This team can't get on base, so while we're quite good in the power and speed departments, we're hitting solo homers and not stealing first base. Somehow we're still 3rd in runs scored but that number has come down. And while the pitching overall remains pretty good, the starters have been inconsistent and the bullpen has had a knack for blowing games of late, so much so that Norge Vera lost his closer's job and we're going with a committee now to close.



And you can see our offensive woes in a nutshell here. Outside of the dynamic duo of Tatis and Subaru, the rest of the lineup is mediocrity personified. Most of these guys are better than their numbers to date and for now I'm going to have to bank on positive regression but if July is more of the same I'm going to have some hard choices to make at the trade deadline.



And it's pretty much the same thing on the mound - Duran has been everything we hoped for after acquiring him but the rest of the staff is mired in mediocrity so it's no surprise we're 40-39. Crochet has bitched to me about not being the closer while Mason Auer has complained of not playing every day but neither of them is doing anything in time they're getting to change my mind on that. Crochet has been a bit better this past month and will get more save opportunities but that's mainly because Vera has crapped the bed of late.



The one guy on this list who could have provided immediate help, Moss, unfortunately broke his collarbone and will be out a couple of more weeks.

[Art Deco]

First the All-Star festivities:

The Teams:

This year's American League standouts are:

SP Greg Carter (SEA) - 5-4, 3.08 ERA, 99.1 IP, 1.36 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.0 WAR
SP Logan Gilbert (LAA) - 5-7, 2.49 ERA, 101.1 IP, 1.01 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.4 WAR (Injured)
SP Ken Hansen (SEA) - 6-3, 3.01 ERA, 92.2 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 2.7 WAR
SP Sung-ho Kim (HOU) - 9-1, 2.97 ERA, 112.0 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.7 WAR
SP Prince Lovette (CLE)* - 11-6, 1.82 ERA, 128.2 IP, 0.87 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 4.8 WAR
SP Adrian Morejon (MIN) - 9-5, 3.02 ERA, 101.1 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.9 WAR
SP Darren Thompson (HOU) - 7-4, 2.86 ERA, 110.0 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.4 WAR
SP Garrett Whitlock (KC) - 6-5, 3.65 ERA, 116.0 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.5 WAR
RP Taylor Dollard (CWS) - 5-1, 7 SV, 2.67 ERA, 64.0 IP, 0.94 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 0.9 WAR
RP Ty Madden (OAK) - 3-1, 2.70 ERA, 63.1 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 1.4 WAR
RP Brock Porter (TB) - 2-0, 0.94 ERA, 47.2 IP, 0.88 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 WAR
RP Osiel Rodriguez (CLE)* - 1-4, 4 SV, 1.97 ERA, 32.0 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 1.2 WAR
CL Jon Bunton (HOU) - 5-4, 4 SV, 2.70 ERA, 33.1 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 4.6 K/9, 0.1 WAR
CL Emmanuel Clase (OAK) - 3-1, 22 SV, 2.14 ERA, 33.2 IP, 1.07 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 1.9 WAR
C Francisco Alvarez (NYY)* - .241/.344/.456, 261 AB, 15 HR, 122 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
C Diego Cartaya (CLE) - .264/.361/.477, 258 AB, 14 HR, 134 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
C Edgar Quero (TOR) - .268/.345/.438, 340 AB, 11 HR, 3 SB, 118 wRC+, 0.9 WAR
C Campbell Smithwick (HOU) - .244/.324/.344, 250 AB, 6 HR, 87 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
1B Spencer Horwitz (BOS)* - .299/.359/.507, 371 AB, 18 HR, 1 SB, 135 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
1B Coby Mayo (BAL)* - .272/.330/.467, 272 AB, 13 HR, 4 SB, 119 wRC+, 1.2 WAR (Injured)
1B Austin Riley (SEA) - .281/.359/.542, 345 AB, 23 HR, 1 SB, 151 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
2B Roch Cholowsky (TEX)* - .315/.370/.446, 314 AB, 7 HR, 2 SB, 127 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
2B Jackson Holliday (BAL)* - .286/.371/.438, 203 AB, 5 HR, 3 SB, 127 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
2B Alex Mooney (BAL) - .353/.418/.514, 348 AB, 8 HR, 7 SB, 160 wRC+, 4.0 WAR
3B Wes Kath (CWS) - .275/.362/.495, 327 AB, 18 HR, 1 SB, 138 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
3B Ethan Porter (BAL) - .263/.370/.486, 331 AB, 21 HR, 4 SB, 139 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
3B Fernando Tatis Jr. (TB)* - .287/.365/.572, 320 AB, 22 HR, 33 SB, 155 wRC+, 4.3 WAR
SS Jeremy Pena (DET) - .269/.320/.423, 260 AB, 9 HR, 4 SB, 100 wRC+, 1.2 WAR
LF Teudis Cortorreal (BAL) - .286/.354/.531, 311 AB, 21 HR, 2 SB, 140 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
LF Dominic Fletcher (BOS)* - .333/.388/.554, 327 AB, 16 HR, 5 SB, 157 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
LF Andrew Vaughn (HOU) - .287/.357/.539, 317 AB, 20 HR, 148 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
CF Subaru Nakashima (TB) - .274/.337/.514, 325 AB, 20 HR, 30 SB, 135 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
CF Julio Rodriguez (SEA)* - .264/.356/.492, 311 AB, 19 HR, 24 SB, 136 wRC+, 4.2 WAR
CF Jesus Rosario (MIN) - .380/.418/.650, 163 AB, 12 HR, 7 SB, 195 wRC+, 3.3 WAR
RF Bobby Marsh (TEX)* - .280/.356/.468, 314 AB, 14 HR, 128 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
RF Hedbert Sykes (CLE) - .337/.383/.481, 347 AB, 8 HR, 15 SB, 141 wRC+, 3.0 WAR

The National League stars will be represented by:

SP Maddux Bruns (LAD) - 10-4, 2.49 ERA, 115.2 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 13.9 K/9, 3.9 WAR
SP Bubba Chandler (PIT) - 8-8, 2.75 ERA, 134.0 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 3.9 WAR
SP Nelson Chaverria (SD) - 11-5, 2.45 ERA, 117.1 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 17.0 K/9, 4.6 WAR
SP Josh Knoth (ATL) - 9-5, 2.74 ERA, 118.1 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.2 WAR
SP Andrew Painter (PHI) - 6-5, 3.64 ERA, 113.2 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.1 WAR
SP Oliver Roque (CHC)* - 8-3, 2.20 ERA, 98.0 IP, 0.82 WHIP, 13.8 K/9, 3.9 WAR
SP Ben Walmsley (CIN) - 5-4, 2.68 ERA, 97.1 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 13.6 K/9, 3.3 WAR
RP Griff McGarry (SD) - 2-1, 2.64 ERA, 61.1 IP, 1.08 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 0.6 WAR
RP Steve Schenk (AZ) - 3-4, 8 SV, 3.89 ERA, 37.0 IP, 1.68 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, -1.0 WAR
RP Zaire Teamer (STL) - 3-4, 3.38 ERA, 61.1 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 1.1 WAR
CL Indigo Diaz (COL) - 6-1, 22 SV, 1.85 ERA, 34.0 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, 1.6 WAR
CL Bayant Melo (MIA) - 2-4, 26 SV, 2.70 ERA, 36.2 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 0.5 WAR
CL Jonathan Sprinkle (SD)* - 2-2, 21 SV, 2.41 ERA, 33.2 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 13.9 K/9, 1.7 WAR
C Harry Ford (WSH)* - .261/.330/.436, 241 AB, 8 HR, 11 SB, 107 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
C Nate Mills (SD) - .300/.370/.544, 237 AB, 16 HR, 2 SB, 154 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
C Ethan Salas (MIL) - .291/.346/.430, 223 AB, 5 HR, 1 SB, 117 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
1B John Kramer (PHI)* - .286/.340/.602, 322 AB, 29 HR, 2 SB, 153 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
1B Colson Montgomery (AZ) - .297/.367/.551, 296 AB, 18 HR, 8 SB, 151 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
1B Tre' Morgan (COL) - .300/.400/.497, 350 AB, 10 HR, 141 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
1B Eddie Welch (LAD)* - .273/.340/.629, 326 AB, 33 HR, 163 wRC+, 3.3 WAR
2B Jackson Merrill (SD)* - .317/.356/.473, 338 AB, 10 HR, 3 SB, 132 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
2B Rene Ramirez Jr. (MIL) - .287/.329/.518, 334 AB, 23 HR, 132 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
2B Jack Ruckert (COL)* - .331/.403/.563, 350 AB, 19 HR, 2 SB, 158 wRC+, 4.1 WAR
3B Brett Baty (SF) - .296/.362/.519, 324 AB, 17 HR, 145 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
SS Tim Anderson (NYM) - .281/.315/.423, 317 AB, 7 HR, 4 SB, 106 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
SS Armando Cruz (WSH)* - .300/.348/.426, 317 AB, 10 HR, 4 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
SS Arjun Nimmala (PHI) - .321/.365/.485, 274 AB, 7 HR, 1 SB, 132 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
LF Rogelio Alvarado (STL) - .277/.334/.555, 339 AB, 23 HR, 3 SB, 140 wRC+, 3.1 WAR
LF Jackson Chourio (LAD)* - .313/.346/.570, 342 AB, 21 HR, 150 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
LF Steve Crawford (CHC) - .279/.362/.530, 315 AB, 21 HR, 1 SB, 145 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
CF Robert Calaz (COL)* - .285/.351/.507, 351 AB, 16 HR, 6 SB, 127 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
CF Tim Hebert (CHC) - .278/.354/.491, 316 AB, 17 HR, 13 SB, 133 wRC+, 3.3 WAR
CF Mike Trout (SD) - .263/.347/.538, 266 AB, 21 HR, 3 SB, 146 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
RF Joey Wika (COL)* - .432/.474/.621, 264 AB, 3 HR, 11 SB, 199 wRC+, 4.5 WAR

(former Rays in italics)

Porter was a bit of a surprise and it's his first All-Star selection while Subaru makes it 2-for-2 since coming over from Japan and Tatis is honored for the fifth time.

The Derby:

No Rays were chosen.



The game:



Tatis was 0-2, Subaru pinch-hit for him and had a 2-run double, and Porter gave up a solo homer in his inning of work.

The Draft:



All of the above are high-schoolers. Waithe has potential 80 contact, 65 power and 60 eye but is a mediocre 2B; Bravo is also a potential 80 contact/65 power guy; Batton has a 65 contact/55 power and 55 catcher ceiling; Hadfield has bat-to-ball skill as he's potentially 80 contact and 80 avoid Ks with 70 gap and 55 HR power. He's not a CF though and will end up in a corner; Rafter is Hadfield's virtual clone as everything I said about the latter is true of Rafter except his gap potential is 60; and Blair has 60/60 potential and could be a 55 catcher.

Not much pitching help on the way from this draft with a few guys taken shortly thereafter but not too exciting.

[Art Deco]

Record: 59-45 (19-6 for the month)
1st place AL East, tied with Baltimore (would also be first wild card)

Now that's more like it. After a couple of bad months that got folks wondering if this team was a real contender they went out and had a great July as not even the All-Star break stalled their momentum. Here's an enjoyable look at the month's games:



Started with a 6-game win streak and barely cooled down from there. It wasn't all wine and roses though. We lost lefty reliever Magdiel Cotto, who tore his UCL so badly that his career was adjudged to be over, and then we lost starter Campbell Ellis to a torn rotator cuff late in the month so his season is done. To replace these guys we went out and made a couple of moves. First we acquired a bonafide closer to replace our bullpen-by-committee:



Correa is one of the game's better closers, rated 80/65/55, having already saved 29 games for Cincinnati this year with a 1.34 ERA and 2.0 WAR and he led the league with 41 saves in 2030. He's a free agent at year's end and the going-nowhere Reds were eager to deal him. In return they get Olsen, an OK but not great pitching prospect, and our former closer Vera who pitched his way out of the job for us and whom the Reds are now trying as a low-stamina starter.

Then we claimed pitcher Jose Garces off waivers from Pittsburgh. Garces is an interesting case - he's making $15.6M and is arb-eligible, rated 3.5 stars, and is rated 65/55/65 as a reliever and 55/55/65 as a 45-stamina starter. A couple years ago he was part of Pittsburgh's 2030 World Series-winning team, earning 3.7 WAR in only 21 starts before suffering a damaged elbow ligament that sidelined him for most of 2031. This year with Pittsburgh he's been brutal (2-10, 8.55 ERA) but is the victim of a .421 BABIP although the 12 homers allowed in 53 IP didn't help either. Anyway, he's a gamble who should pitch better and right now we'll use him in long relief, taking over for Chang-hyeok Kim who moved back to the rotation to replace Ellis and if he pitches well enough there he may get a shot at starting. Or he's a bust and we eat some money.



As you can see the standings are pretty compressed around MLB with nobody playing .600 ball so if the Rays keep it up they could potentially grab a playoff bye should they get the better of Baltimore.



As one would expect coming off a 19-6 month the team stats are much improved in several areas, most notably the on-base numbers and a big improvement in the starting pitching which was near the bottom a month ago. Hopefully the Ellis injury doesn't hurt too much as Kim is a bit shaky in the rotation which is why Ellis replaced him earlier this year. Tried trading for a starter but prices were too high. Still 7 games off our Pythagorean record but unless we start winning a lot of close ones those lost games are just something we'll have to overcome.



Quite simply almost everyone raked in July with Paino really leading the charge. Even slow starters Basallo and Schmidt heated up as the month went on with only Schrier having a rough time of it at the plate, although he came through with his only homer of the month on the 31st to win a game against the Yankees so maybe it'll a portent of a hot August for him.



More goodness here. The bullpen was lights-out and Correa has been great since arriving with the lone exception an extra-inning loss in which the ghost runner scored. Vodnik has looked like he did when he closed for us back in 2029 and even Crochet started becoming reliable. The starters were pretty good too even if Teodo and Lambert struggled a bit. In fact one of them was so good the league took notice:



Going to skip the farm report since there's nothing new of note to report there.