Is Velocity Decline really fixed?

[tktkrtktkr]

Two months ago, Lukas Berger confirmed that pitcher's velocity decline without injury in the mid-20s was not intended, then velocity decline was reduced in the last update. But it's still common to see atypical declines. The picture below is the result of simulation with injury turned off.




As far as I know, it is not that common for big league pitcher to lose more than two miles of velocity before age 27. However, when I tested standard league with injuries off, pitchers with 97+ mph losed more than 2 miles very frequently.


I compared the maximum average velocity to average velocity at age 27 of pitches thrown more than 100 innings in a season in the last 10 years and checked how many players had lose their velocity by more than two miles, then did the same thing in the OOTP standard league with injury setting off. In OOTP, 16 pitchers with 97+mph lose their velocity by more than 2 miles while 4 pitcher had little change in velocity. On the other hand, there's no big problem with pitchers under 96 mph.

In summary, the problem is that young pitchers with 97 miles or more have a big reduction in their velocity even though they are not injured. This is strange compared to the big league over the last decade. While this won't have a very significant impact on gameplay, it's not pleasant to see a pitcher go through what he has to go through in his late 20s a few years early.

Just because I've compared OOTP to MLB it doesn't mean I'm arguing that OOTP should be made the same as reality. But If a series of patches that have been done to increase the reality of the game have made the game more distant from reality, this is a problem and should be fixed. I think the game shouldn't be harsher or more extreme than reality at least.

[twins_34]

I'd love to know how your league is setup that you keep testing this with. Is it all based on default? Do you change any of the dev or aging settings? What is your TCR set at?

Because without context it's hard to see what's going on.

[tktkrtktkr]

Originally Posted by twins_34

I'd love to know how your league is setup that you keep testing this with. Is it all based on default? Do you change any of the dev or aging settings? What is your TCR set at?

Because without context it's hard to see what's going on.

I only turned off league evolution and injury settings and nothing else changed.

[twins_34]

Originally Posted by tktkrtktkr

I only turned off league evolution and injury settings and nothing else changed.

Well almost everyone, and I have been doing this since I started in OOTP 21 and learned it from youtube and forum posts, but set your settings to

Pitcher and Batter Dev Speed 1.100
Pitcher and Batter aging to 0.950
TCR to like 75
Aging target Age to older

Run the same thing and let me know what you get then. I would be very interested in the numbers.

[Reed]

Originally Posted by twins_34

Well almost everyone, and I have been doing this since I started in OOTP 21 and learned it from youtube and forum posts, but set your settings to

Pitcher and Batter Dev Speed 1.100
Pitcher and Batter aging to 0.950
TCR to like 75
Aging target Age to older

Run the same thing and let me know what you get then. I would be very interested in the numbers.

It's fine to want to know how it works with your settings (and I adjust the settings in my game) but the goal should be to get accuracy with the out of the box default setting.
If it works good with "your settings" I hope we don't say, "That's great, let's move on to something else". I really don't give a flip what most people do, I want the game to be accurate out of the box.

[twins_34]

Originally Posted by Reed

It's fine to want to know how it works with your settings (and I adjust the settings in my game) but the goal should be to get accuracy with the out of the box default setting.
If it works good with "your settings" I hope we don't say, "That's great, let's move on to something else". I really don't give a flip what most people do, I want the game to be accurate out of the box.

I am TRYING to get data, by using his testing method, to try and find how far things are off. If my settings even fixes his issue in the slightest then we now have settings and adjustments the Devs can use to fix the issue. It's called testing and you know that.

[tktkrtktkr]

Originally Posted by twins_34

Well almost everyone, and I have been doing this since I started in OOTP 21 and learned it from youtube and forum posts, but set your settings to

Pitcher and Batter Dev Speed 1.100
Pitcher and Batter aging to 0.950
TCR to like 75
Aging target Age to older

Run the same thing and let me know what you get then. I would be very interested in the numbers.

I didn't write it in the text, but I also tested it in different setting. When TCR was 50 and injuries off, there were seven 97+ pitchers whose velocity almost didn't change, and 10 pitchers whose velocity decreased by more than 2 miles. Yes, it's less than when TCR is 100, but it's still excessive, and it gets worse if you turn on the injury setting.

Extremely low TCR is not a solution because it removes not only velocity decline but also randomness, and aging target age settings are also not preferred because it greatly change the distribution of player ratings. The solution is that Devs repeat what they did in the last update. In fact, after last patch the degree of velocity decline has decreased a little, but it hasn't been enough.

[twins_34]

Originally Posted by tktkrtktkr

I didn't write it in the text, but I also tested it in different setting. When TCR was 50 and injuries off, there were seven 97+ pitchers whose velocity almost didn't change, and 10 pitchers whose velocity decreased by more than 2 miles. Yes, it's less than when TCR is 100, but it's still excessive, and it gets worse if you turn on the injury setting.

Extremely low TCR is not a solution because it removes not only velocity decline but also randomness, and aging target age settings are also not preferred because it greatly change the distribution of player ratings. The solution is that Devs repeat what they did in the last update. In fact, after last patch the degree of velocity decline has decreased a little, but it hasn't been enough.

It's not just about lower TCR. It's about also slowing down thew ageing of the player, which honestly I think is overly aggressive in 25. Which is the reason ageing has been slowed with the 0.950 and then raising the ageing target age. It's not all about TCR. Can you just humor me and set up a league with the numbers and other settings I posted above and run your test. post the graphs, and everything you did like in your original post.

If these numbers help fix this problem or move us more in the right direction, then we can send them to the devs but I honestly could not care less about TCR alone. I don't think TCR is the issue, a small part of the problem, yes. However, there is an aggressive ageing issue and I have seen it in my leagues were players that were just fine in 24, as soon as we moved to 25, they fell off a cliff at 31 years old. Some started around 28, and you are seeing issue with velo. I think all of these has to do with the new way regression has been adjusted, which was not in prior versions.

[tktkrtktkr]

Originally Posted by twins_34

It's not just about lower TCR. It's about also slowing down thew ageing of the player, which honestly I think is overly aggressive in 25. Which is the reason ageing has been slowed with the 0.950 and then raising the ageing target age. It's not all about TCR. Can you just humor me and set up a league with the numbers and other settings I posted above and run your test. post the graphs, and everything you did like in your original post.

If these numbers help fix this problem or move us more in the right direction, then we can send them to the devs but I honestly could not care less about TCR alone. I don't think TCR is the issue, a small part of the problem, yes. However, there is an aggressive ageing issue and I have seen it in my leagues were players that were just fine in 24, as soon as we moved to 25, they fell off a cliff at 31 years old. Some started around 28, and you are seeing issue with velo. I think all of these has to do with the new way regression has been adjusted, which was not in prior versions.

I'm late in responding, please understand. Reducing TCR to 20 and slowing down aging speed and aging taregt age did not fix the problem.

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...85#post5143885