It seems that there is still problem about reliever's stuff even after update

[tktkrtktkr]

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=355827

It seems that there is still an issue with generated pitcher's stuff being low even after last update.

I compared the distribution of pitcher performance in 2024,2040 in a standard league without league evolution to stats in past MLB seasons. By 2040, most players in the league are generated player, so the distribution in 2040 could be characterized as the distribution of generated players who reach the big league.





The graph above shows the distribution of k/9 stats of relievers and starters across the league in OOTP season and MLB. The distribution of stats in OOTP 2024 season was similar to MLB, but in 2040, the distribution of reliever's stats was very different from it of mlb.

When enough time has passed to only have generated players, k/9 distributions of relievers in leagues are significantly different from MLB, or 2024 season. There is a lack of high-stuff relievers: The performance of the top 10% RP is similar to 2009 MLB season, when league k/9(6.99) was 1.75 less than in 2023 (8.74).


Also too many players are league average level compared with 2024 season(or mlb).

Starting pitchers with very high stuff also tend to be fewer over time, but it's a small difference compared to the bullpen.






The distribution of bb/9 does not appear to be abnormal.

The HR/9 distribution may seem strange in that the difference between starters and relievers becomes larger. Starter's hr/9 tends to decrease, while reliever's hr/9 tends to increase. This seems to correlate with a increase in the average movment rating of league SP over the 15-year period. *53.8(2025)->56.9(2040)

(The reason why OOTP season's hr/9 stats are discrete is because I used the single decimal place values that are represented in the game.)



The bottom line is that reliever's stuff are still low and variance is too small relative to reality in spite of fix at the last update. I don't know if this is because the in-game adjustments only take into account league averages. But I think player creation needs to be fixed.

[twins_34]

Originally Posted by tktkrtktkr

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=355827

It seems that there is still problem about reliever's stuff even after update.
In my last post, I only talked about the distribution of pitcher's ratings, not stats, but after running sims for play I thought that there is still problem about reliever's stuff.
I compared the distribution of pitcher performance in 2024,2040 in a standard league without league evolution to stats in past MLB seasons. By 2040, most players in the league are generated player, so the distribution in 2040 could be characterized as the distribution of generated players who reach the big league.


Attachment 1011907

2040 season's R/G is typical(4.52), and league's home run and strikeout rates are similar as they were in 2024.
2009, 2018, and 2023 MLB season's R/G are also typical.


Attachment 1011903

The variance of reliever's k/9 in 2040 is too low compared to reality. Too many players are clustered around the average, and there is a dearth of high k/9 relievers: The performance of the top 10% RP is similar to 2009 MLB season, when league k/9(6.99) was 1.75 less than in 2023 (8.74).


Attachment 1011904

To a lesser extent than RP, the k/9 distribution of SP has also leveled off relative to reality.


Attachment 1011905

The distribution of bb/9 does not appear to be abnormal.

The HR/9 distribution is odd in that the difference between starters and relievers becomes larger.
Starter's hr/9 tends to decrease, while reliever's hr/9 tends to increase. This seems to correlate with a increase in the average movment rating of league SP over the 15-year period. *53.8(2025)->56.9(2040)
(The reason why 2024,2040 season's hr/9 stats are discrete is because I used the single decimal place values that are represented in the game.)



The bottom line is that reliever's stuff are still low and variance is too small relative to reality in spite of fix at the last update. I don't know if this is because the in-game adjustments only take into account league averages. But I think player creation needs to be fixed.

Post it in the bug forums and upload your game to the devs so they can look at what you are seeing. Posting this stuff here, most of us dont know what you are even posting with all these graphs and most dont even want to try and understand. We are not your audience, the devs are so, the bug forums probably the better place for this.

[jcard]

Originally Posted by twins_34

Post it in the bug forums and upload your game to the devs so they can look at what you are seeing. Posting this stuff here, most of us dont know what you are even posting with all these graphs and most dont even want to try and understand. We are not your audience, the devs are so, the bug forums probably the better place for this.

Do not presume to speak for me, thank you. I for one really appreciate the information and definitely find it to be instructive. Thank you again to the OP.

[Rain King]

Yeah, I don't think the bug forum is the correct place for this as of yet.

For one, the Devs are not necessarily looking to emulate exactly the distribution in current day MLB with the fictional players. They generally seem to error towards more balance than outliers. So, it is possible that this is a "design decision".

So, knowing that, this is exactly the right place for this data and open discussion as the Devs do still see these threads (although maybe not as quickly).

I'm sure Matt will weigh in when he gets a chance.

[Dave Hansen]

Right message...right forum.

The posting may allow others to verify/or not... what their experience is.

All with the intent of improvement ...two heads better than one.

[atlbrave1]

Bumping this as I don't believe it has been addressed in the latest beta patch either. Guess my general question is whether this is a feature in this year's release and should move forward with league creation understanding that there won't be any Edwin Diaz, Craig Kimbrel type of relievers created by the game.

[OutS|der]

With this still being an issue I'm coming to the conclusion it's best to skip this version.

[Francoeurstein]

Originally Posted by tktkrtktkr

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=355827

It seems that there is still an issue with generated pitcher's stuff being low even after last update.

I compared the distribution of pitcher performance in 2024,2040 in a standard league without league evolution to stats in past MLB seasons. By 2040, most players in the league are generated player, so the distribution in 2040 could be characterized as the distribution of generated players who reach the big league.


Attachment 1012381


The graph above shows the distribution of k/9 stats of relievers and starters across the league in OOTP season and MLB. The distribution of stats in OOTP 2024 season was similar to MLB, but in 2040, the distribution of reliever's stats was very different from it of mlb.

When enough time has passed to only have generated players, k/9 distributions of relievers in leagues are significantly different from MLB, or 2024 season. There is a lack of high-stuff relievers: The performance of the top 10% RP is similar to 2009 MLB season, when league k/9(6.99) was 1.75 less than in 2023 (8.74).
Attachment 1012383

Also too many players are league average level compared with 2024 season(or mlb).

Starting pitchers with very high stuff also tend to be fewer over time, but it's a small difference compared to the bullpen.




Attachment 1011905

The distribution of bb/9 does not appear to be abnormal.

The HR/9 distribution may seem strange in that the difference between starters and relievers becomes larger. Starter's hr/9 tends to decrease, while reliever's hr/9 tends to increase. This seems to correlate with a increase in the average movment rating of league SP over the 15-year period. *53.8(2025)->56.9(2040)

(The reason why OOTP season's hr/9 stats are discrete is because I used the single decimal place values that are represented in the game.)



The bottom line is that reliever's stuff are still low and variance is too small relative to reality in spite of fix at the last update. I don't know if this is because the in-game adjustments only take into account league averages. But I think player creation needs to be fixed.

Nice explanation of a significant issue, complete with visual data to back your claims. You won't hear a peep from the devs though. I will say, the new patches have ironed out a few of the problems that have been complained about, but still, it's almost July and there's still so many fundamental issues with this game. Guys, you have got to be better. As a long-time customer and advocate of this game I gotta say - this version has been absolutely piss poor. I'm only frustrated because I love this game and I always have. When we do hear back from you all, our complaints get downplayed. I want this company to continue to thrive because OOTP is truly a revolutionary game. With that being said, I think you guys have fallen hard for the cash grab. I get it - PT has probably given you all an unbelievable avenue to collect revenue. Money is great. But you're not listening to us, the loyal customers. I'm just afraid that this franchise is heading in the direction of a quick cash-grab and I don't envision it reversing course anytime soon. I pray that I am wrong.

[Matt Arnold]

Thanks, always interesting to look at the data. It's hard to get outliers right without either having them too common or too rare, but we can see about adjusting some of the values for the next update.

[jcard]

Originally Posted by Francoeurstein

Nice explanation of a significant issue, complete with visual data to back your claims. You won't hear a peep from the devs though. I will say, the new patches have ironed out a few of the problems that have been complained about, but still, it's almost July and there's still so many fundamental issues with this game. Guys, you have got to be better. As a long-time customer and advocate of this game I gotta say - this version has been absolutely piss poor. I'm only frustrated because I love this game and I always have. When we do hear back from you all, our complaints get downplayed. I want this company to continue to thrive because OOTP is truly a revolutionary game. With that being said, I think you guys have fallen hard for the cash grab. I get it - PT has probably given you all an unbelievable avenue to collect revenue. Money is great. But you're not listening to us, the loyal customers. I'm just afraid that this franchise is heading in the direction of a quick cash-grab and I don't envision it reversing course anytime soon. I pray that I am wrong.

This is spot-on. We are talking about a fundamental element of a baseball management sim not working at the halfway point of the season; people dismiss the franchise mode of something like “MLB: TS” for this type of shortcoming; here, it is an essential part of the game’s alleged raison d’être. As for why this is the case, there are any number of hypothetical reasons:

• No genuine in-house developers working full-time
• Personnel turnover / Inadequate work product = No institutional knowledge
• Complacency / No sense of urgency
• Perfect Team focus
• Reluctance to go beyond dial-turning and into engine coding
• Etc.

In the end, though, from a customer standpoint: Who cares why? Whether it is due to a failure of resources; interest; talent; or otherwise, the operative word is “failure”—both of including a working model of a critical process at launch and then of rectifying this original transgression in a timely manner.
Whether it is a matter of “Can’t” or of “Won’t” is of little matter to the user when the enduring state is one of “Doesn’t”.

[CD360]

Originally Posted by jcard

This is spot-on. We are talking about a fundamental element of a baseball management sim not working at the halfway point of the season; people dismiss the franchise mode of something like “MLB: TS” for this type of shortcoming; here, it is an essential part of the game’s alleged raison d’être. As for why this is the case, there are any number of hypothetical reasons:

• No genuine in-house developers working full-time
• Personnel turnover / Inadequate work product = No institutional knowledge
• Complacency / No sense of urgency
• Perfect Team focus
• Reluctance to go beyond dial-turning and into engine coding
• Etc.

In the end, though, from a customer standpoint: Who cares why? Whether it is due to a failure of resources; interest; talent; or otherwise, the operative word is “failure”—both of including a working model of a critical process at launch and then of rectifying this original transgression in a timely manner.
Whether it is a matter of “Can’t” or of “Won’t” is of little matter to the user when the enduring state is one of “Doesn’t”.

I’m all for good faith critiques of the game, but this feels a little melodramatic. Yes the current state of relievers is troublesome, but I think this is a case where the dev’s deserve a bit of patience. The ratings overhaul is an absolutely massive change for the better but of course there will be growing pains. Having to wait a bit for them to get relievers right is a worthwhile trade when player development as a whole seems to work much better now.

I do think there’s a worthwhile conversation to be had about how beta testing is done since every version has major issues balancing long term saves, but this version seems much better in that regard than the last few.

[JasonC23]

I must admit I enjoyed these back-to-back posts.

[jksander]

Originally Posted by JasonC23

I must admit I enjoyed these back-to-back posts.

Me too, and then the posts immediately after Matt's that continued as if he'd said nothing

[Garlon]

When it comes to these fictional games or when you take the standard fabs and play 20 years into the future there are so many variables that could be causing this rather than distribution if ratings.

How many levels or the minor leagues are there?

How many players are drafted each season?

What values are being used for player development?

What league totals are being used?

How many relievers are on the active roster?

What pitched stamina settings are being used?

What relief pitcher and closer settings are being used?

[Francoeurstein]

Originally Posted by JasonC23

I must admit I enjoyed these back-to-back posts.

I summoned him! Lol.

[rwd59]

It is obvious to me that relief pitching is definitely an issue in this version. One thing I know is that the today's game is loaded with high velocity pitchers at the MLB, MILB, and NCAA levels. Strikeouts are higher than they have ever been. I see alot of pitchers with high potential stuff ratings but there actual ratings are 70-80 points or more below their potential. They never come close to reaching that potential. There is just too big of a gap to ever reach that potential. Today's MLB is loaded with relievers who strike out 1 or more per inning but I am not seeing this in the game. You can't tell me that someone who throws that hard as an amateur should have stuff ratings so low. Strikeouts in general are quite a bit lower than they have been in the past. This is the big issue I have with this years game. It is extremely hard to find quality relievers in this years game.

[atlbrave1]

Originally Posted by Garlon

When it comes to these fictional games or when you take the standard fabs and play 20 years into the future there are so many variables that could be causing this rather than distribution if ratings.

How many levels or the minor leagues are there?

How many players are drafted each season?

What values are being used for player development?

What league totals are being used?

How many relievers are on the active roster?

What pitched stamina settings are being used?

What relief pitcher and closer settings are being used?

Here are relievers (qualified as 20+ IP with less than 4 GS) year 20 of custom game, MLB setup, no changes other than turning off evolution, in other words what I would think should reflect a modern MLB setup.

[atlbrave1]

The bigger outliers in this example are actually big K hitters. Leaderboard for league history reflects 24 seasons with 220+K. In MLB there have only been 2 such seasons. I have seen this in my other tests as well for OOTP25.

[LansdowneSt]

Originally Posted by atlbrave1

Here are relievers (qualified as 20+ IP with less than 4 GS) year 20 of custom game, MLB setup, no changes other than turning off evolution, in other words what I would think should reflect a modern MLB setup.

If there were no changes other than turning off evolution, why is the auto-calc of modifiers off? That is defaulted on as recommended when playing a standard 2024 MLB game forward. How did they almost all get set to 1.0 in the screenshot?

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by LansdowneSt

If there were no changes other than turning off evolution, why is the auto-calc of modifiers off? That is defaulted on as recommended when playing a standard 2024 MLB game forward. How did they almost all get set to 1.0 in the screenshot?

When he says "MLB Setup" I believe he means a Fictional game using the "MLB Setup" for the league structure.

I just tested that and am seeing the same default settings as their screenshot.