What are the odds of getting this draw from a 1,000 pt regular pack?

jksander · 05-26-2024, 04:39 PM

I almost **** my pants when the fireworks started going off lol! Two perfect cards in a single regular pack! I know it says 1:1000 for a perfect in a pack. What would the odds be of getting two randomly in the same pack?

EDIT: Tried to refresh my memory of statistics and probability -- I believe this would be odds of 1:1,000,000, correct me if I'm an idiot lol

HRBaker · 05-26-2024, 04:57 PM

Crap. Now I have to wait another 500 packs before I get one...

jksander · 05-26-2024, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HRBaker

Crap. Now I have to wait another 500 packs before I get one...

Sorry lol, may be the first bit of luck I've had in a while now

Tinkerman · 05-26-2024, 05:16 PM

The chances of 2 cards like that in a pack, are a million to one, he said.

That's a War of the Worlds earworm for the rest of the evening

Bunktown Ballers · 05-26-2024, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jksander

I almost **** my pants when the fireworks started going off lol! Two perfect cards in a single regular pack! I know it says 1:1000 for a perfect in a pack. What would the odds be of getting two randomly in the same pack?

EDIT: Tried to refresh my memory of statistics and probability -- I believe this would be odds of 1:1,000,000, correct me if I'm an idiot lol

And those 2 100's were probably duplicates

jksander · 05-26-2024, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

And those 2 100's were probably duplicates

What do you mean? Is there only supposed to be one card available at 100 for a player?

daveydigi420 · 05-26-2024, 07:38 PM

That's awesome man, congrats. Can't say I've ever had that happen. That's two collection missions completed from just those cards, or around 100k if you sell them. A magical unicorn if I've ever seen one. I'd post that too.

Stormhound · 05-26-2024, 07:38 PM

The odds are calculated per card, not per pack, so it's a bit better than 1/1,000,000 but not a whole lot. Certainly beats the double-diamond draw I had from a standard pack a month or so ago.

KJDelaney · 05-26-2024, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jksander

I almost **** my pants when the fireworks started going off lol! Two perfect cards in a single regular pack! I know it says 1:1000 for a perfect in a pack. What would the odds be of getting two randomly in the same pack?

EDIT: Tried to refresh my memory of statistics and probability -- I believe this would be odds of 1:1,000,000, correct me if I'm an idiot lol

Thats a hell of a great pull

jksander · 05-26-2024, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveydigi420

That's awesome man, congrats. Can't say I've ever had that happen. That's two collection missions completed from just those cards, or around 100k if you sell them. A magical unicorn if I've ever seen one. I'd post that too.

Yeah, it'd take an insane pull in the future for me to ever post one again lol ... hard to beat double perfects

Just hoping this helps my team next year to get out of Iron, I've only been to Bronze once (in OOTP24) and have never made it past that level.

bailey · 05-27-2024, 01:16 PM

It's 40,000 to 1 or about the same odds as hitting the Royal Flush in Video Poker when using optimal strategy.

steamrollers · 05-27-2024, 09:22 PM

Wow, congrats that is incredible. I don't open nearly as many packs as some but I am well over 1000 packs opened and have pulled 1 live perfect and that just recently happened.

jksander · 05-27-2024, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steamrollers

Wow, congrats that is incredible. I don't open nearly as many packs as some but I am well over 1000 packs opened and have pulled 1 live perfect and that just recently happened.

I have not opened nearly that many packs. I don't do the Twitch streams, so I get what I get as daily login packs and any I choose to buy with accumulating perfect points. I'm sure I'm missing out on a lot of what PT has to offer, but I also have multiple offline sims I play and I'm in three online leagues, lol ... so only so much time in the day

05-26-2024, 04:39 PM	#1
jksander All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Indianapolis IN Posts: 1,575	What are the odds of getting this draw from a 1,000 pt regular pack? I almost ** my pants when the fireworks started going off lol! Two perfect cards in a single regular pack! I know it says 1:1000 for a perfect in a pack. What would the odds be of getting two randomly in the same pack? EDIT: Tried to refresh my memory of statistics and probability -- I believe this would be odds of 1:1,000,000, correct me if I'm an idiot lol Attached Images __________________ Draft League: From the Bottom to the Bigs! -- An OOTP 26 Dynasty The Birth of Small Town Baseball in Indiana -- Ohio River Baseball League (ORBL) -- An OOTP 26 Dynasty Online Leagues Modern Baseball (Chicago White Sox) Daily Double Baseball (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) Championship Baseball League (Winnipeg Goldeye) WPORBL 55 (Chicago Cubs) WPORBL 74 (Oakland A's) WPORBL 94 (Montreal Expos) -- League Has Openings! WPOBL** (Cincinnati Reds) Last edited by jksander; 05-26-2024 at 04:54 PM.

05-26-2024, 04:57 PM	#2
HRBaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,367	Crap. Now I have to wait another 500 packs before I get one... __________________ *HRB*

05-26-2024, 05:16 PM	#4
Tinkerman All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 1,939	The chances of 2 cards like that in a pack, are a million to one, he said. That's a War of the Worlds earworm for the rest of the evening __________________

05-26-2024, 07:38 PM	#7
daveydigi420 Bat Boy Join Date: May 2024 Posts: 8	That's awesome man, congrats. Can't say I've ever had that happen. That's two collection missions completed from just those cards, or around 100k if you sell them. A magical unicorn if I've ever seen one. I'd post that too. __________________ "I was in Perfect League for twenty-one days once. Twenty-one greatest days of my life... You know you never handle your luggage in Perfect League?"

05-26-2024, 07:38 PM	#8
Stormhound Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2024 Posts: 45	The odds are calculated per card, not per pack, so it's a bit better than 1/1,000,000 but not a whole lot. Certainly beats the double-diamond draw I had from a standard pack a month or so ago. __________________ "If the people don't wanna come out to the ballpark, nobody's gonna stop 'em." - Yogi Berra Don't be part of the problem...be the entire* problem.*

05-27-2024, 01:16 PM	#11
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,328	It's 40,000 to 1 or about the same odds as hitting the Royal Flush in Video Poker when using optimal strategy.

05-27-2024, 09:22 PM	#12
steamrollers Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 95	Wow, congrats that is incredible. I don't open nearly as many packs as some but I am well over 1000 packs opened and have pulled 1 live perfect and that just recently happened.