Data update only for 26

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

There are 43 parameters that the modifiers are modeling. Those are not going anywhere if you want the game to produce accurate results in any given season.

We have actually added MORE modifiers for OOTP25 than we had in OOTP24.

So you admit ratings based on historical data placed in a historical context with historical lineups and historical transactions cannot produce historical output. That is a huge failure of the ratings.

Outside that context the game cannot produce accurate results. Oh, yes, they'll be accurate compared with historical, but not with the talent in the league or the strategy selected.



There are people who play this game, who take the chance of losing players early due to career ending injuries, who don't know when players will retire, who maybe decide to start a good field no hit player when the historical manager did the opposite, but yet these leagues are forced into historical output by the LTMs. This is not accurate even though the total match historical.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Sweed

My original point of coming into the thread was to show the AI does use H&R, for both AI teams and human teams (something you claimed it does not do) with AI controlled baserunning.
Your answer, as I read it, seemed to at least give credence to my explanation. However you said something about the pbp doesn't say "the runner goes". My reply is above in an earlier post, but the general thought is the pbp doesn't go into detail for many things.

I have since observed that AI does occasionally call a hit and run. So I now agree with you that it does.

My current view is the strategy slider for hit and run is not connected to anything. Or if so, it's like trying to push a paper clip with a long piece of cooked spaghetti.

There is a good reason to minimize the number of runner starts plays. And that is there's no data, as Garlon confirmed.

[Garlon]

BradK, there is an option to use precalculated modifiers in the league settings menu.

You can use that option and the modifiers are no longer dynamic. The league will be tuned to a specific season assuming the talent of the league and real lineups and transactions.

You can load those precalculated modifiers and have whatever talent in our league and generate an output that will not necessarily be that of the given season because the modifiers are no longer dynamically being recalculated based on the given set of players in the league or the strategy settings you have selected for your game.

I am not sure if the current build of the game has the updated precalculated modifiers file yet though, so you may want to wait until the next patch to test it. That file gets created each year after release.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I have since observed that AI does occasionally call a hit and run. So I now agree with you that it does.

My current view is the strategy slider for hit and run is not connected to anything. Or if so, it's like trying to push a paper clip with a long piece of cooked spaghetti.

There is a good reason to minimize the number of runner starts plays. And that is there's no data, as Garlon confirmed.

I certainly wouldn't argue against a player having control.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

BradK, there is an option to use precalculated modifiers in the league settings menu.

You can use that option and the modifiers are no longer dynamic. The league will be tuned to a specific season assuming the talent of the league and real lineups and transactions.

You can load those precalculated modifiers and have whatever talent in our league and generate an output that will not necessarily be that of the given season because the modifiers are no longer dynamically being recalculated based on the given set of players in the league or the strategy settings you have selected for your game.

I am not sure if the current build of the game has the updated precalculated modifiers file yet though, so you may want to wait until the next patch to test it. That file gets created each year after release.

Why do you suggest things already shown not to work? The reason is the LTMs are tested against the game three times and adjusted, meaning the initial calculations are known not to give good results.

And this, "no longer dynamically being recalculated based on the given set of players in the league or the strategy settings you have selected for your game" shows that despite your comments that LTMs don't over ride anything, they in fact do. Talent and strategy is ignored.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Sweed

I certainly wouldn't argue against a player having control.

Initially that seems like the right thing to do. However, there are other considerations. A human with a strategy based on modern knowledge would have an advantage over an AI manager playing according to the knowledge of the era. Is that good or bad? Could be argued either way.

[Garlon]

BradK, you do not understand.

There is a set of modifiers that are kept in its own file for those who want to play a historical exhibition from the main menu.

Those modifiers can be loaded for your games. Those were created by hundreds of tests and averaged.

This is different than when the game dynamically calculates the modifiers based on a custom setup with different settings than the default.

[Brad K]

If those "other" modifiers work, why include modifiers that have to be tested three times to work? Makes no sense.

And as I have stated repeatedly, regardless of what the LTMs are they truly work only with a completely historical save that includes historical lineups, retire according to history, etc. This is not the the game that human GMs play.

[Brad K]

We're down to the last four. There wasn't much disagreement on these so there is no need for me to present extensive proof here that the original statements are correct. However I am partially changing my view on hit and run.

Originally Posted by Brad

7. Get rid of the hit and run slider for manager strategy. It appears to be not connected. In watching games I've never observed a situation where an AI manager started a runner. Actually, having it not working makes sense. There isn't any data on H&R plays that can be used by the game and the results are already reflected in data on base runners taking an extra base, SB, CS, and double plays.

Originally Posted by Garlon

7. This is true that we do not have historical data on H & R. Whether or not the sliders work needs to be confirmed. They may also stack against the league setting or perhaps not be able to go higher or lower than the maximum or minimum settings.

I have played perhaps 60 games with AI control of offensive strategy since my previous post. I have occasionally seen AI start a runner. I have experimented with settings and casual observations are that it makes no difference.

This would actually make sense as Garlon has confirmed no historical data. That means the results of allowing the slider to work would be strictly guesswork. So there's good reason for it not to work.

Concerning other strategy settings I'm certain the settings for IBB and SB work. I don't have any comment on the others. There's lots of noise with the signal.

Originally Posted by Brad

8. The fact that minor league players can't be neutralized isn't a reason not to include them in the neutralized data base. Their ratings are all a guess anyway, the stats they produced in the minors are depreciated for their MLB ratings, so the minor changes made by neutralization are lost in the other changes.

Originally Posted by Garlon

8. This may be due to the fact that the game is pulling the neutralized stats from a different file and since the minor leagues do not have neutralized stats the game cannot pull from both files simultaneously. A possible workaround if they wanted to support this would be to copy all of the minor league stats over as a neutralized file so that everything can pull from the same set of files.

Yes. OOTP should do this.

Originally Posted by Brad

9. Treat a game with fictional players as a separate different game from one with historical players. For example, the idea of pitch types affecting a fictional player's development and ultimate effectiveness is fine for games with fictional players but pitch type ratings for historical players, who cares? It's all made up stuff by going backwards from the real life stats.

Originally Posted by Garlon

9. Not exactly sure what you are suggesting. The database does have real pitch types for many historical pitchers and those pitches get ranked and rated to produce the Stuff for pitchers.

You've addressed the example rather than the issue. There are multiple features that should have a strong influence in a game with fictional players but little or none in games with historical players. These include development budget, coaching, all the psychology with relationships and player personality, and, as in the example, the pitch types. The pitch types can be set to have an effect with the development of fictional players and perhaps people want this. But that effect is all supposition.

Concerning data of pitch types for historical players, yes, what types of pitches they threw is often known but the quality of those pitches and their effect is unknown. Thats is why a person playing a save with historical players should not be pondering pitch type and quality. They don't drive the ratings of historical players.

Originally Posted by Brad

11. Make it clear which features are show only and shouldn't be considered when making decisions. As examples, spray charts, exit velocity, and hard out, all of which have been mentioned recently in this forum as the basis for decisions, And think about the subliminal usually incorrect message being sent to players who play out games by the randomly varying crack of the bat on the ball?

There wasn't really a discussion on this issue except for the amusing reply that I create a mod to use a single bat crack sound. However it's possible 11 got lost in the other discussion, so if people think having entertainment posing as information is OK, please say so.

[Garlon]

BradK, when you create a league the modifiers will calculate uniquely for that given setup and options selected. They are not preloaded. They are generated when advancing to opening day.

There is a different set that can be preloaded specifically for historical exhibition games from the main menu. These are also available for use in other game types if for sone reason you wanted to use them.

The things that you have been stating about the modifiers are just completely wrong.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

BradK, when you create a league the modifiers will calculate uniquely for that given setup and options selected. They are not preloaded. They are generated when advancing to opening day.

There is a different set that can be preloaded specifically for historical exhibition games from the main menu. These are also available for use in other game types if for sone reason you wanted to use them.

The things that you have been stating about the modifiers are just completely wrong.

Really? How about you saying "SOME thing you have been stating about modifiers are wrong." And tell me which ones.

Point remains that they only truly work when with historical lineups and transactions and are only needed because the rating system can't produce historical output from historical stats in a 100% historical environment. So they don't work the way most people play the game.

Anyway, I'm thankful we're reduced my eleven requests to one disputed issue.

[Garlon]

Well, the league totals modifiers have been in the game for the past 18 years and you are the only user making these claims. You say they do not work when in fact they are giving you accuracy to tenths of a percentage point across literally every statistical category that can be modeled within the constraints of the game and the available historical statistics. Everything for which we have statistics has been added to the modifiers and the player ratings.

From your posts it is quite obvious you do not understand what the modifiers are doing or their purpose in the game.

Have you noticed how there are absolutely 0 people who have come to your defense in this thread?

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

Well, the league totals modifiers have been in the game for the past 18 years and you are the only user making these claims. You say they do not work when in fact they are giving you accuracy to tenths of a percentage point across literally every statistical category that can be modeled within the constraints of the game and the available historical statistics. Everything for which we have statistics has been added to the modifiers and the player ratings.

From your posts it is quite obvious you do not understand what the modifiers are doing or their purpose in the game.

Have you noticed how there are absolutely 0 people who have come to your defense in this thread?

Yes, Garlon, of course. I'm stupid and an out of touch whackjob. Just say it. This is what you have left.

[Garlon]

No. I said that you do not understand what the modifiers are doing in the game. You keep insisting they only make work for real lineups and transactions and that is simply incorrect.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

No. I said that you do not understand what the modifiers are doing in the game. You keep insisting they only make work for real lineups and transactions and that is simply incorrect.

In 1920 Ruth hit 54 HRs. MLB hit 630.

Say Ruth was injured in spring training and lost for the season. The LTMs run with him not in the game. What is the most likely number of HRs for MLB to hit for that year?

Now lets say that Ruth was injured in the first game of the season without hitting a HR and was lost for the season. The LTMs have already run. What is the most likely number of HRs for MLB that year?

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

From your posts it is quite obvious you do not understand what the modifiers are doing or their purpose in the game.

Their purpose is to compensate for the reality that ratings from historical stats run in a game with historical lineups, historical transactions, historical ballpark factors, historical schedule, and any other historical selection I've forgotten cannot produce historical results.

What they are doing is making things as accurate as possible for people who amuse themselves by running test sims to see how close the stats are to historical. And they do that to the detriment of every person who doesn't play that way.

Did you invent LTMs? They gave you what you wanted. Just take it and quit pretending they gave others what they wanted.

[Scoman]

So BradK,What is it your wanting exactly?

Accurate Yearly league totals and yearly player stats without the restrictions of LTMs , recalc, Adjust/Weaken settings,historical lineups, historical transactions, historical ballpark factors, historical schedules?

[Scoman]

Originally Posted by Garlon

No. I said that you do not understand what the modifiers are doing in the game. You keep insisting they only make work for real lineups and transactions and that is simply incorrect.

Facts.....Been playing historical over 20 years and have never played with real lineups and transactions one time.... There are literally a millions ways to play historical or fictional.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Scoman

So BradK,What is it your wanting exactly?

Accurate Yearly league totals and yearly player stats without the restrictions of LTMs , recalc, Adjust/Weaken settings,historical lineups, historical transactions, historical ballpark factors, historical schedules?

First post, item 1.

Matt posted to say the game was moving toward this. Garlon denied it could ever happen. Like, who is the dev here?

Look at the questions a few posts ago about Ruth. It demonstrates the problem. And there are millions of more ways to demonstrate it.

I don't know why Garlon keeps saying LTMs work no matter what. He has posted about what to do when they don't work. Like set retire according to history to yes.

[Reed]

Originally Posted by Brad K

First post, item 1.

Matt posted to say the game was moving toward this. Garlon denied it could ever happen. Like, who is the dev here?

Look at the questions a few posts ago about Ruth. It demonstrates the problem. And there are millions of more ways to demonstrate it.

I don't know why Garlon keeps saying LTMs work no matter what. He has posted about what to do when they don't work. Like set retire according to history to yes.

Actually I can sorta see Brads point (maybe) but I don’t know what the answer is. Let’s say you are playing career mode with injuries on. Ruth has a career ending injury in 1920. 1921 comes around and auto calc is done, the LTMs kick in. The LTMs don’t care that Ruth is out, they just want the league totals to be what they were IRL (with Ruth). So the players in the league will get a VERY slight boost to compensate for Ruth not being there when in reality maybe the league totals should be slightly lowered.

Yes the game is probably extremely accurate if you play real transactions real lineups but the more you deviate from that, the less accurate it will be. The lower accuracy will be so insignificant though that the user will never notice. But as Garlon stated, the LTMs monitor so many other factors.
Ok, I am getting a headache and could be totally “off base”.