Top Prospect List weighs potential too heavily

doohdee2 · 03-28-2024, 12:06 PM

The top prospect list is dominated by the IFA players with 80 potential, this is not reflective of any prospect list in real life. Currently as soon as top IFA signs, they will be one of the top 5 prospects in baseball when the list updates next.

The only IFA in MLB who is a top 100 prospect and less than 18 is Ethan Salas and he was not immediately ranked the year after he signed. He was only ranked after doing well in A ball and playing in Double AA in his age 17 season.

On the other hand, I think the AI actually does a good job of valuing prospects in trades. It's smart enough to know that the 16-17 year old 20/80 overall prospect in Rookie Ball is worth less than the 45/70 22 year old prospect in AA.

An easy fix would just be to have the top prospect list reflect trade value (which accurately weights current/overall and age) instead of just pure potential like it does right now.

RoyalsFan79 · 03-29-2024, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doohdee2

The top prospect list is dominated by the IFA players with 80 potential, this is not reflective of any prospect list in real life. Currently as soon as top IFA signs, they will be one of the top 5 prospects in baseball when the list updates next.

The only IFA in MLB who is a top 100 prospect and less than 18 is Ethan Salas and he was not immediately ranked the year after he signed. He was only ranked after doing well in A ball and playing in Double AA in his age 17 season.

On the other hand, I think the AI actually does a good job of valuing prospects in trades. It's smart enough to know that the 16-17 year old 20/80 overall prospect in Rookie Ball is worth less than the 45/70 22 year old prospect in AA.

An easy fix would just be to have the top prospect list reflect trade value (which accurately weights current/overall and age) instead of just pure potential like it does right now.

Have noticed this as well. I'm 4 seasons into a franchise and all the top prospects for my team and across the league are IFA at the rookie ball level. No guys in the high minors or top draft picks.

Very annoying.

refgewr3 · 03-29-2024, 10:51 PM

Agree. Also IFAs are too good. OOTP's been shifting to devaluing amateur draft prospects to accurately reflect that even mid-1st round guys are more pretty good than great, but top IFAs still have insane potentials and are overrated compared to real life.

To add to this the top prospects list generally needs an overhaul because it doesn't meaningfully reflect team consensus on prospect valuation. You see a 3.5 star/60 guy ranked way down in the top 500 or off the list entirely and assume your scout found a diamond in the rough and then the other team values him correctly, I get that the top prospect list is supposed to be a bit inaccurate but it goes too far.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/youre-no...-first-trades/

I found this article very interesting because it talks about how gm's know what guys other orgs really like compared to leaguewide and share lists and stuff like that. In OOTP this is exceptionally difficult to make out, especially on hard mode.

I think I've come around a bit on hard mode because I like that it's not as exact and some risk/reward to negotiating (but not nearly enough b/c GM reputation's easy to keep up and a nonfactor, they need to add more stuff w/ bidding against other teams for a player similar to the new IFA which they handled very well where there's incentive to make big upfront offers to avoid bidding wars). But this is especially bad there where it's incredibly time-consuming to find out how teams value their own players and your players. You basically have to click through the menus 20+ times to hit all the decent 3.0, 2.5 and 2.0 star prospects and find one whom they don't value super highly.

CBLCardinals · 03-30-2024, 12:11 AM

Someone in my roster thread suggested putting the IAFA player creation modifiers to 0.900 on all settings. I did a test run and the highest was 70 (1 player), 60 (2 players maybe?) some 55, and about 10 or so 50 FV potentials.

So basically:
One player 70 level = Fernando Tatis Jr
One or two 60 level = Oneil Cruz, Jazz Chisholm

Versus ALOT of 70’s & 80’s

TwinsfanND · 03-30-2024, 10:20 AM

Been having the same issue. Could have swore they said they were addressing it one of the patches though.

raysfan6 · 03-30-2024, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBLCardinals

Someone in my roster thread suggested putting the IAFA player creation modifiers to 0.900 on all settings.

Where do you change the IAFA player creation modifiers?

CBLCardinals · 03-30-2024, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raysfan6

Where do you change the IAFA player creation modifiers?

I’m not at cpu so going off memory…

On settings -> players (or created players?? Don’t recall exact name)

This screen will display how many scouting discoveries you would like to generate, et al. You will see on the right hand side about 15 different “created player” modifiers. The default is 1.000, but I feel like way too many high end guys are generated.

If someone else has game up maybe they can assist?

md5423 · 04-01-2024, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBLCardinals

I’m not at cpu so going off memory…

On settings -> players (or created players?? Don’t recall exact name)

This screen will display how many scouting discoveries you would like to generate, et al. You will see on the right hand side about 15 different “created player” modifiers. The default is 1.000, but I feel like way too many high end guys are generated.

If someone else has game up maybe they can assist?

I'm not able to find this setting, would really appreciate if you can let me know where exactly it is. Thanks bro

CBLCardinals · 04-01-2024, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md5423

I'm not able to find this setting, would really appreciate if you can let me know where exactly it is. Thanks bro

Game -> Game settings -> Leqgue settings -> Players

I set “Generate International Amateur Free agents” to A lot (240 per year)

Settings on far right of that screen is where I put in .900 to all of those fields

md5423 · 04-01-2024, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBLCardinals

Game -> Game settings -> Leqgue settings -> Players

I set “Generate International Amateur Free agents” to A lot (240 per year)

Settings on far right of that screen is where I put in .900 to all of those fields

Those fields are not specific to the IAFA though, right? They are just the player creation modifiers in general, I believe

venflaalachi · 04-01-2024, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md5423

Those fields are not specific to the IAFA though, right? They are just the player creation modifiers in general, I believe

Yea that controls all players created for a league, so IAFA, draft prospects, etc.

03-28-2024, 12:06 PM	#1
doohdee2 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 37	Top Prospect List weighs potential too heavily The top prospect list is dominated by the IFA players with 80 potential, this is not reflective of any prospect list in real life. Currently as soon as top IFA signs, they will be one of the top 5 prospects in baseball when the list updates next. The only IFA in MLB who is a top 100 prospect and less than 18 is Ethan Salas and he was not immediately ranked the year after he signed. He was only ranked after doing well in A ball and playing in Double AA in his age 17 season. On the other hand, I think the AI actually does a good job of valuing prospects in trades. It's smart enough to know that the 16-17 year old 20/80 overall prospect in Rookie Ball is worth less than the 45/70 22 year old prospect in AA. An easy fix would just be to have the top prospect list reflect trade value (which accurately weights current/overall and age) instead of just pure potential like it does right now.

03-29-2024, 10:51 PM	#3
refgewr3 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2023 Posts: 21	Agree. Also IFAs are too good. OOTP's been shifting to devaluing amateur draft prospects to accurately reflect that even mid-1st round guys are more pretty good than great, but top IFAs still have insane potentials and are overrated compared to real life. To add to this the top prospects list generally needs an overhaul because it doesn't meaningfully reflect team consensus on prospect valuation. You see a 3.5 star/60 guy ranked way down in the top 500 or off the list entirely and assume your scout found a diamond in the rough and then the other team values him correctly, I get that the top prospect list is supposed to be a bit inaccurate but it goes too far. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/youre-no...-first-trades/ I found this article very interesting because it talks about how gm's know what guys other orgs really like compared to leaguewide and share lists and stuff like that. In OOTP this is exceptionally difficult to make out, especially on hard mode. I think I've come around a bit on hard mode because I like that it's not as exact and some risk/reward to negotiating (but not nearly enough b/c GM reputation's easy to keep up and a nonfactor, they need to add more stuff w/ bidding against other teams for a player similar to the new IFA which they handled very well where there's incentive to make big upfront offers to avoid bidding wars). But this is especially bad there where it's incredibly time-consuming to find out how teams value their own players and your players. You basically have to click through the menus 20+ times to hit all the decent 3.0, 2.5 and 2.0 star prospects and find one whom they don't value super highly.

03-30-2024, 12:11 AM	#4
CBLCardinals OOTP Roster Team Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 1,867	Someone in my roster thread suggested putting the IAFA player creation modifiers to 0.900 on all settings. I did a test run and the highest was 70 (1 player), 60 (2 players maybe?) some 55, and about 10 or so 50 FV potentials. So basically: One player 70 level = Fernando Tatis Jr One or two 60 level = Oneil Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Versus ALOT of 70’s & 80’s

03-30-2024, 10:20 AM	#5
TwinsfanND Bat Boy Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 19	Been having the same issue. Could have swore they said they were addressing it one of the patches though.