Why don't higher rated goalies perform better?

tyleraven10 · 03-25-2024, 09:31 PM

I've been running a full user team controlled sim league for about 4 seasons of FHM now, and the notion that goalies are either meaningless or random is rather common after what we've seen. I've been tracking data in here for each of the seasons and here are the average SV% per star rating in the league from 4.5-1.5 (each season has at least 10 seasons behind it with at least 450 GP in each threshold as well.

Star SV%
4.5: 0.904
4.0: 0.904
3.5: 0.908
3.0: 0.904
2.5: 0.902
2.0: 0.900
1.5: 0.897

I understand that goalies in real life can have fluctuations in performance across seasons, and i would expect volatility, but surely over the course of 4 seasons of sample size, we should expect some clear example of the top goalies in the league actually being better than average and bad goalies by a significant margin. Obviously the 1.5s are really poor, but theres a 2 point difference on their average SV% between 4.5s and 2.5s Is there something thats missing? This is one of the most in depth and detail oriented sports video games out there, it cant really be the case that goalies are pure luck?

Spartacus70 · 03-30-2024, 07:48 AM

Hi! Where to start....
Firstly, we must not confuse the star system, which is a relative value (rated by scouts according to your league), with the actual rating that you can see through the editor.
I've been talking about this problem for some years now. The gap between the best and the mediocre is not big enough. Point.
Example: 1974. You have the best with Overall scores of 775-825 out of 1000. That's an average of 16/20 in their ratings. And Ron Low (one of the worst 1st goalkeepers in NHL history) at 725, i.e. an average of 14.5/20... Plus, there's the problem of Endurance and GK Mental Strength ratings. Endurance should be seen as a rating relative to use (role/GP). So a goalkeeper who has never played more than 40 GP/season should not exceed 10/20 here.
For the Mental Force, the gap should be even wider. To take Ron Low as an example, if you rate him around 5-7/20 (instead of 15), you're already getting an anxious and very mentally fragile goalkeeper (inconsistent, gives away bad goals, doesn't bounce back from bad performances). And less chance of entering the Hot streak.

Spartacus70 · 03-30-2024, 08:05 AM

I made tests in FHM8 . with an average ov 10/20 in skills ratings (all players, yes fastidious!). Trust me it made a huge difference, particularlly in historical starts.
A Wayne Gretzky at his same ratings (exept AGG, BRAVERY, HITTING at 5) and a league average at 10/20, so with a lot of players at 8-12/20 at passing, now you perceived his dominance in the passing area (at least in classic simulation engine).

Spartacus70 · 03-30-2024, 08:09 AM

And for GKs, in the 90's I succeeded to recreated a D. Hasek as a real Dominator with a combination of inflating his rating and lowering most of the rest of the league.

03-25-2024, 09:31 PM	#1
tyleraven10 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2023 Posts: 21	Why don't higher rated goalies perform better? I've been running a full user team controlled sim league for about 4 seasons of FHM now, and the notion that goalies are either meaningless or random is rather common after what we've seen. I've been tracking data in here for each of the seasons and here are the average SV% per star rating in the league from 4.5-1.5 (each season has at least 10 seasons behind it with at least 450 GP in each threshold as well. Star SV% 4.5: 0.904 4.0: 0.904 3.5: 0.908 3.0: 0.904 2.5: 0.902 2.0: 0.900 1.5: 0.897 I understand that goalies in real life can have fluctuations in performance across seasons, and i would expect volatility, but surely over the course of 4 seasons of sample size, we should expect some clear example of the top goalies in the league actually being better than average and bad goalies by a significant margin. Obviously the 1.5s are really poor, but theres a 2 point difference on their average SV% between 4.5s and 2.5s Is there something thats missing? This is one of the most in depth and detail oriented sports video games out there, it cant really be the case that goalies are pure luck? Last edited by tyleraven10; 03-25-2024 at 09:32 PM.

03-30-2024, 07:48 AM	#2
Spartacus70 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Sao Paulo, Brasil Posts: 208	Hi! Where to start.... Firstly, we must not confuse the star system, which is a relative value (rated by scouts according to your league), with the actual rating that you can see through the editor. I've been talking about this problem for some years now. The gap between the best and the mediocre is not big enough. Point. Example: 1974. You have the best with Overall scores of 775-825 out of 1000. That's an average of 16/20 in their ratings. And Ron Low (one of the worst 1st goalkeepers in NHL history) at 725, i.e. an average of 14.5/20... Plus, there's the problem of Endurance and GK Mental Strength ratings. Endurance should be seen as a rating relative to use (role/GP). So a goalkeeper who has never played more than 40 GP/season should not exceed 10/20 here. For the Mental Force, the gap should be even wider. To take Ron Low as an example, if you rate him around 5-7/20 (instead of 15), you're already getting an anxious and very mentally fragile goalkeeper (inconsistent, gives away bad goals, doesn't bounce back from bad performances). And less chance of entering the Hot streak.

03-30-2024, 08:05 AM	#3
Spartacus70 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Sao Paulo, Brasil Posts: 208	I made tests in FHM8 . with an average ov 10/20 in skills ratings (all players, yes fastidious!). Trust me it made a huge difference, particularlly in historical starts. A Wayne Gretzky at his same ratings (exept AGG, BRAVERY, HITTING at 5) and a league average at 10/20, so with a lot of players at 8-12/20 at passing, now you perceived his dominance in the passing area (at least in classic simulation engine).

03-30-2024, 08:09 AM	#4
Spartacus70 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Sao Paulo, Brasil Posts: 208	And for GKs, in the 90's I succeeded to recreated a D. Hasek as a real Dominator with a combination of inflating his rating and lowering most of the rest of the league.