Player aging effects

mtw · 03-14-2002, 09:53 AM

I don't know if is addressed in the patch-if it is great, but if not...

As I watch my all-star 3B go from Hall of Fame ratings into the crapper over the course of the current season, I think to myself (which I now share here) that one of the areas of player development that I think could use some improvement is player aging. Currently, position players, at some random point from about 36 to 38 years of age, start to see their batting ratings and/or talent drop, usually in a random pattern, and often all together. Often, areas that don't devolve are fielding and running speed.

In reality, most players suffer drops in speed and fielding range by their late 20's or very early 30's. But by this time, many players have compensated with increased power and improved batting eye. Along with the loss of speed, players will stop trying to leg out triples by their early 30's.

Catchers (all catchers, really, with the possible exception of Carlton Fisk) universally seem to hit the wall by age 35, and often as early as age 33-34, with noticeable loss of production.

What I'd like to see is a trending for players to hold on to their 2B, HR, and BB ratings for most of their career and into advanced age and strikeouts to increase gradually and batting average to hold or drop gradually at around age 34-36. Fielding range, speed and 3B to decrease beginning at around age 28-32, without going back up. I'd also like to batting ratings have a decent chance of improving throughout a player's career, through their mid-to-late 30's.

OOTP3 and now OOTP4 has players age often by suffering a steep drop in ratings during one season, typically losing triples first (fair, but speed doesn't drop), and then randomly dropping average, 2B, HR, BB, and K. I have many players retire with A speed and fielding ranges. Also, position players batting ratings seem to top out by age 30.

I'm absolutely certain that this is a difficult area to program, but if a little more gradualness to ratings loss and randomness to the chance of development later in a career could be worked in, it would provide some welcome unpredicatbility. Maybe even having a player's ratings decrease one year and go back up the next could be worked in to a larger degree.

Thanks for considering.

Maple Leafs · 03-14-2002, 10:41 AM

Excellent ideas. It would be nice to have the occasional freaks who keep stealing bases into their 40s (e.g. Otis Nixon) but otherise I agree 100%.

Khaos · 03-14-2002, 10:51 AM

I agree. Good ideas. Possible?

Night2000 · 03-14-2002, 11:01 AM

Bump

Jason H. · 03-14-2002, 12:33 PM

This makes sense to me, too(!)

fluharty · 03-14-2002, 12:57 PM

[quote]In reality, most players suffer drops in speed and fielding range by their late 20's or very early 30's<hr></blockquote>
Does it really happen this early? I would think thirty at the earliest for most players, mid thirties for some.

mtw · 03-14-2002, 01:27 PM

[quote]Originally posted by fluharty:
<strong>
Does it really happen this early? I would think thirty at the earliest for most players, mid thirties for some.</strong><hr></blockquote>

Certainly, as a previous post noted, there are players who because of their conditioning and some luck can maintain good speed or range for most, if not all, of their careers. I could rattle off a lot of players who were slower and got to fewer balls at age 30 than at age 25. I could also name players who didn't really seem to lose anything until age 35.

Some players compensate for the loss of raw ability with intelligence and developed skills, so that their output may not be impacted for a while.

What I was trying to get across is that typically speed and range are the first things to go, for most players at every position, and hitting abilities often stay with a player for the majority of their career, especially power and ability to draw walks. I'm not looking for an absolute rule; far from it. What I'd like to see is a closer approximation to real-life trends, with the possibility of small and occasionally big exceptions. It's a work in progress and I'm sure it will keep getting better.

fluharty · 03-14-2002, 01:39 PM

I agree, in general, that this needs to be addressed better in the game, but would make the age where defensive range/speed starts to decline 30 rather than 28. I could be wrong about this, but 28 seems pretty young to be in decline, even in terms of speed/range.

You make a good point about players making adjustments to compensate for loss of speed. In terms of the game, this would mean that not all guys will lose range (or at least not much) since they can compensate by getting a better jump on the ball, positioning themseves better, getting rid of the ball quicker, and so forth...

[ March 14, 2002: Message edited by: fluharty ]</p>

Spielman · 03-14-2002, 02:02 PM

Defense tending to slip earlier would allow us to mirror reality by having solid hitters at defensivly oriented positions switch to other spots later in their career. (Yogi Berra, George Brett and Cal Ripken all come to mind.) I'd appreciate that extra little dose of realism.

I'd _really_ like to see more variation in how players tend to go downhill. Sure, some players suddenly hit a wall late in their career, the way pretty much all the players in OOTP do, but most trend downward for a longer period of time before reaching the need to retire. And some, like Boog Powell, for example, hit a wall a _lot_ earlier than their late 30s.

Not being able to predict a player's decline very easily would make the game quite a bit more interesting.

-Spielman

Ed Griever · 03-14-2002, 02:06 PM

Roger Clemens is really slumping so far in my single player league. Going 1-5 with an ERA over 5.

Psicosis · 03-14-2002, 03:08 PM

I had this happen to Fred McGriff between the 2002 & 2003 seasons. In 2002, his numbers were a little worse than his 2001 numbers, but still solid. .292/.367/.450, with 25 homers and 121 RBI's. His numbers took a sharp downturn, and he's now just an expensive pine rider. In 77 appearances, he's hit .229/.302/.310, with 6 dingers and 29 ribbies.

Thankfully, Hee Seop Choi has lessened the blow since he was promoted from AAA. He's hitting .317 with 7 homers(the first two came in his first game) in the 31 games he's been in so far. I think he has the job until further notice.

03-14-2002, 09:53 AM	#1
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	Player aging effects I don't know if is addressed in the patch-if it is great, but if not... As I watch my all-star 3B go from Hall of Fame ratings into the crapper over the course of the current season, I think to myself (which I now share here) that one of the areas of player development that I think could use some improvement is player aging. Currently, position players, at some random point from about 36 to 38 years of age, start to see their batting ratings and/or talent drop, usually in a random pattern, and often all together. Often, areas that don't devolve are fielding and running speed. In reality, most players suffer drops in speed and fielding range by their late 20's or very early 30's. But by this time, many players have compensated with increased power and improved batting eye. Along with the loss of speed, players will stop trying to leg out triples by their early 30's. Catchers (all catchers, really, with the possible exception of Carlton Fisk) universally seem to hit the wall by age 35, and often as early as age 33-34, with noticeable loss of production. What I'd like to see is a trending for players to hold on to their 2B, HR, and BB ratings for most of their career and into advanced age and strikeouts to increase gradually and batting average to hold or drop gradually at around age 34-36. Fielding range, speed and 3B to decrease beginning at around age 28-32, without going back up. I'd also like to batting ratings have a decent chance of improving throughout a player's career, through their mid-to-late 30's. OOTP3 and now OOTP4 has players age often by suffering a steep drop in ratings during one season, typically losing triples first (fair, but speed doesn't drop), and then randomly dropping average, 2B, HR, BB, and K. I have many players retire with A speed and fielding ranges. Also, position players batting ratings seem to top out by age 30. I'm absolutely certain that this is a difficult area to program, but if a little more gradualness to ratings loss and randomness to the chance of development later in a career could be worked in, it would provide some welcome unpredicatbility. Maybe even having a player's ratings decrease one year and go back up the next could be worked in to a larger degree. Thanks for considering. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

03-14-2002, 10:51 AM	#3
Khaos Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Canfield, OH Posts: 473	I agree. Good ideas. Possible? __________________ squish

03-14-2002, 11:01 AM	#4
Night2000 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Monroe, NJ Posts: 716	Bump __________________ http://night2000.blogspot.com/ This post has the Al Bundy and Homer Simpson stamp of approval!

03-14-2002, 01:27 PM	#7
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	[quote]Originally posted by fluharty: <strong> Does it really happen this early? I would think thirty at the earliest for most players, mid thirties for some.</strong><hr></blockquote> Certainly, as a previous post noted, there are players who because of their conditioning and some luck can maintain good speed or range for most, if not all, of their careers. I could rattle off a lot of players who were slower and got to fewer balls at age 30 than at age 25. I could also name players who didn't really seem to lose anything until age 35. Some players compensate for the loss of raw ability with intelligence and developed skills, so that their output may not be impacted for a while. What I was trying to get across is that typically speed and range are the first things to go, for most players at every position, and hitting abilities often stay with a player for the majority of their career, especially power and ability to draw walks. I'm not looking for an absolute rule; far from it. What I'd like to see is a closer approximation to real-life trends, with the possibility of small and occasionally big exceptions. It's a work in progress and I'm sure it will keep getting better. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

03-14-2002, 02:02 PM	#9
Spielman All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: South Carolina Posts: 1,668	Defense tending to slip earlier would allow us to mirror reality by having solid hitters at defensivly oriented positions switch to other spots later in their career. (Yogi Berra, George Brett and Cal Ripken all come to mind.) I'd appreciate that extra little dose of realism. I'd _really_ like to see more variation in how players tend to go downhill. Sure, some players suddenly hit a wall late in their career, the way pretty much all the players in OOTP do, but most trend downward for a longer period of time before reaching the need to retire. And some, like Boog Powell, for example, hit a wall a _lot_ earlier than their late 30s. Not being able to predict a player's decline very easily would make the game quite a bit more interesting. -Spielman __________________ Spielman was at one time the smartest person on these boards. http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...martest+Person I don't believe in AnotherAlias.

03-14-2002, 10:41 AM	#2
Maple Leafs Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 234	Excellent ideas. It would be nice to have the occasional freaks who keep stealing bases into their 40s (e.g. Otis Nixon) but otherise I agree 100%.

03-14-2002, 12:33 PM	#5
Jason H. Bat Boy Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 11	This makes sense to me, too(!)

03-14-2002, 12:57 PM	#6
fluharty All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Morgantown, WV Posts: 1,023	[quote]In reality, most players suffer drops in speed and fielding range by their late 20's or very early 30's<hr></blockquote> Does it really happen this early? I would think thirty at the earliest for most players, mid thirties for some.

03-14-2002, 01:39 PM	#8
fluharty All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Morgantown, WV Posts: 1,023	I agree, in general, that this needs to be addressed better in the game, but would make the age where defensive range/speed starts to decline 30 rather than 28. I could be wrong about this, but 28 seems pretty young to be in decline, even in terms of speed/range. You make a good point about players making adjustments to compensate for loss of speed. In terms of the game, this would mean that not all guys will lose range (or at least not much) since they can compensate by getting a better jump on the ball, positioning themseves better, getting rid of the ball quicker, and so forth... [ March 14, 2002: Message edited by: fluharty ]</p>

03-14-2002, 02:06 PM	#10
Ed Griever Bat Boy Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 5	Roger Clemens is really slumping so far in my single player league. Going 1-5 with an ERA over 5.

03-14-2002, 03:08 PM	#11
Psicosis Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Memphis, TN Posts: 228	I had this happen to Fred McGriff between the 2002 & 2003 seasons. In 2002, his numbers were a little worse than his 2001 numbers, but still solid. .292/.367/.450, with 25 homers and 121 RBI's. His numbers took a sharp downturn, and he's now just an expensive pine rider. In 77 appearances, he's hit .229/.302/.310, with 6 dingers and 29 ribbies. Thankfully, Hee Seop Choi has lessened the blow since he was promoted from AAA. He's hitting .317 with 7 homers(the first two came in his first game) in the 31 games he's been in so far. I think he has the job until further notice.