Should I oversell for 1st overall?

BennyTheMarlin · 01-13-2024, 01:03 PM

I'm torn on a trade and looking for advice or simply a thought I may have overlooked to push me in either direction:

I'm new to the game (playing V.9), and playing my second season of a revived WHA with the Nordiques. We finished 9th last year out of 12 teams and are doing slightly worse this year, likely giving us the 2nd or 3rd pick in this year's draft. I've been salivating over the likely top pick all year (a 5 star potential wing with killer ratings) and trying to bowl over our league's bottom team, Saskatoon, in order to acquire the pick. As you all no doubt know, the game makes this quite hard. I've gotten to the "interesting offer" place a few times by offering to swap this year's 1st's plus give them my next two 1st's and a pair of top 6 forwards. This would be quite rich but I'd be willing to sacrifice for the league's next potential superstar. But I still get a "no" any way I swing it...unless I throw in my 19 year old, 4th overall center from last year. He is at two stars already and scouts are split on potential: mine like him at 3.5 (up from 3), while the consensus says 5, and is a full two years older than the guy I would pick. My brain says this is just too much, but I'm still tempted. They won't take it if I lower any other asset, and it's the deadline. Maybe I try to trade at the draft or even after, but I would expect that it's impossible by then.

And one more thing, my potential trade partner is 12-15 points in last in a 3 point league. What if I trade it and they heat up somehow? Then I'm truly screwed with no top prospect or 1st pick.

What do you guys think? Should I make the big move to give my team an identity or take a cold shower?

Bluenoser · 01-13-2024, 02:06 PM

Myself, I would not even make that offer. Three 1st's, 2 top forwards and they want another top forward for one 1st rounder? Who is the potential top pick, Gretzky?

I mean something is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. But no way I'm giving away that much for 1 first in return. If you're dead set on getting the top pick, wait til the season is over at least. You'll still have time to make a trade for the top pick, and maybe can get a better deal.

Also, if you're using a draft lottery, there's no telling who will have top pick until draft day. You can try for a trade then also.

BennyTheMarlin · 01-13-2024, 02:50 PM

No lottery. Final offer would be three 1st's, the top prospect, plus another top 6 forward. Do you find it is typically harder to trade for draft picks at the draft than the deadline? Seems like it might be.

Tangerino · 01-13-2024, 03:56 PM

I understand that trading 1st overall picks doesn't happen in the NHL often if at all, but I do find that the AI over values the hell out of the top 10 picks, I've offered just as a test I would never have completed the trade but I've done Draisaitl, McDavid, Nuge and Probably some prospects for a top 10 pick and most teams if not all of them would say no.. I don't understand, these teams would have the cap space aswell for these players and still say no. It has been almost impossible to trade top 10 picks for the last like 3-4 versions of FHM.

Bluenoser · 01-13-2024, 06:23 PM

Agree with Tangerino about how the AI values top picks, although I haven't tried anything like he did with the offer. Doesn't surprise me though.

There's a lot to consider when making a trade like this though.

Ask yourself some questions:

Is the #1 pick going to be a generational talent?

Is he going to turn my team into a contender right away?

Where am I with my rebuild? (question 2 applies here also - if I get #1, is he the missing piece?)

How much am I willing to give up? If you are going to give up your next 3 firsts, then you should be close to ready. If you think your team will still struggle for a couple more years, then you're trading away what are likely to be high picks in the first round. So you have to consider that too.

So much to consider - the life of a GM

BennyTheMarlin · 01-14-2024, 07:40 PM

So I gave it some thought and decided to pass on the big trade, at least for now. In the end, I didn't want to part with my top prospect, who could be a 5-star if my scouts are wrong, and even still is a potential three-star center. The super top pick I'm after is a wing, and has just a few cracks character-wise that my own guy doesn't. I also spent a bit of time down the same line of thinking as you, Bluenoser, on where the rebuild is. I think we could very well be solidly in the playoffs with the top pick, but at what cost? I like the idea of being an org that builds through prospects, and losing that many picks would set me too far from that. I will probably kick the can a few times more before and after the draft (love doesn't die right away), but I'm ready to move on, and who knows, go on a huge losing streak to get the pick outright.

viperswhip · 01-18-2024, 06:14 PM

I think the Devs overvalue the top 10 picks to keep us from abusing the AI. It is laughably easy to get other team's first round picks, just a 3rd or a 2nd a very mediocre player.

I do find it easier to use 1st round picks to pick up the prospects I didn't get to pick in the draft the first time around.

fanat1k · 01-19-2024, 01:51 AM

I'll give you a very simple life hack. Wait for the draft, as soon as the team selects the player you want, immediately go to the trades and trade the player during the draft. It will cost significantly less.

BennyTheMarlin · 03-09-2024, 04:13 PM

A quick update on how things went. I took fanat1k's advice and looked to trade for the #1 pick right after he was selected and I was able to pull it off at terms that predictably pricey but not unreasonably so.

Despite a red-hot streak to close the season that dropped me from a likely #2 overall to #6, I managed to make this flip:

My #6 overall this year
Next year's 1st rounder
Last year's 2nd rounder, a 2.5 to 3 star potential all-offense center
A lower-tier D prospect (5th round, 1.5 star potential for my scouts, 2 star consensus)
My taking on a bad contract, but for only one year and a player I liked and could afford

Taking on the contract was what got them on board. I'll miss the center prospect that left, but in keeping the top prospect I mentioned before and getting his super-stud winger, I feel like I came out very nicely. Time will tell but this feels like the right move at the right time.

Scottababc · 03-13-2024, 12:32 PM

For the future: and this is Scummy (and worked on by the dev's to a good enough degree from prior iterations) it is FAR FAR easier to trade for a prospect right after they are picked during the draft as opposed to the early picks. For some guys it's still too difficult, usually if they have a talent over 10.00.

01-13-2024, 01:03 PM	#1
BennyTheMarlin Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Hamden, CT Posts: 138	Should I oversell for 1st overall? I'm torn on a trade and looking for advice or simply a thought I may have overlooked to push me in either direction: I'm new to the game (playing V.9), and playing my second season of a revived WHA with the Nordiques. We finished 9th last year out of 12 teams and are doing slightly worse this year, likely giving us the 2nd or 3rd pick in this year's draft. I've been salivating over the likely top pick all year (a 5 star potential wing with killer ratings) and trying to bowl over our league's bottom team, Saskatoon, in order to acquire the pick. As you all no doubt know, the game makes this quite hard. I've gotten to the "interesting offer" place a few times by offering to swap this year's 1st's plus give them my next two 1st's and a pair of top 6 forwards. This would be quite rich but I'd be willing to sacrifice for the league's next potential superstar. But I still get a "no" any way I swing it...unless I throw in my 19 year old, 4th overall center from last year. He is at two stars already and scouts are split on potential: mine like him at 3.5 (up from 3), while the consensus says 5, and is a full two years older than the guy I would pick. My brain says this is just too much, but I'm still tempted. They won't take it if I lower any other asset, and it's the deadline. Maybe I try to trade at the draft or even after, but I would expect that it's impossible by then. And one more thing, my potential trade partner is 12-15 points in last in a 3 point league. What if I trade it and they heat up somehow? Then I'm truly screwed with no top prospect or 1st pick. What do you guys think? Should I make the big move to give my team an identity or take a cold shower? Last edited by BennyTheMarlin; 01-13-2024 at 01:11 PM.

01-13-2024, 02:06 PM	#2
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 14,138	Myself, I would not even make that offer. Three 1st's, 2 top forwards and they want another top forward for one 1st rounder? Who is the potential top pick, Gretzky? I mean something is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. But no way I'm giving away that much for 1 first in return. If you're dead set on getting the top pick, wait til the season is over at least. You'll still have time to make a trade for the top pick, and maybe can get a better deal. Also, if you're using a draft lottery, there's no telling who will have top pick until draft day. You can try for a trade then also.

01-13-2024, 02:50 PM	#3
BennyTheMarlin Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Hamden, CT Posts: 138	No lottery. Final offer would be three 1st's, the top prospect, plus another top 6 forward. Do you find it is typically harder to trade for draft picks at the draft than the deadline? Seems like it might be.

01-13-2024, 03:56 PM	#4
Tangerino Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Canada, BC Posts: 185	I understand that trading 1st overall picks doesn't happen in the NHL often if at all, but I do find that the AI over values the hell out of the top 10 picks, I've offered just as a test I would never have completed the trade but I've done Draisaitl, McDavid, Nuge and Probably some prospects for a top 10 pick and most teams if not all of them would say no.. I don't understand, these teams would have the cap space aswell for these players and still say no. It has been almost impossible to trade top 10 picks for the last like 3-4 versions of FHM.

01-13-2024, 06:23 PM	#5
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 14,138	Agree with Tangerino about how the AI values top picks, although I haven't tried anything like he did with the offer. Doesn't surprise me though. There's a lot to consider when making a trade like this though. Ask yourself some questions: Is the #1 pick going to be a generational talent? Is he going to turn my team into a contender right away? Where am I with my rebuild? (question 2 applies here also - if I get #1, is he the missing piece?) How much am I willing to give up? If you are going to give up your next 3 firsts, then you should be close to ready. If you think your team will still struggle for a couple more years, then you're trading away what are likely to be high picks in the first round. So you have to consider that too. So much to consider - the life of a GM

01-14-2024, 07:40 PM	#6
BennyTheMarlin Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Hamden, CT Posts: 138	So I gave it some thought and decided to pass on the big trade, at least for now. In the end, I didn't want to part with my top prospect, who could be a 5-star if my scouts are wrong, and even still is a potential three-star center. The super top pick I'm after is a wing, and has just a few cracks character-wise that my own guy doesn't. I also spent a bit of time down the same line of thinking as you, Bluenoser, on where the rebuild is. I think we could very well be solidly in the playoffs with the top pick, but at what cost? I like the idea of being an org that builds through prospects, and losing that many picks would set me too far from that. I will probably kick the can a few times more before and after the draft (love doesn't die right away), but I'm ready to move on, and who knows, go on a huge losing streak to get the pick outright.

01-18-2024, 06:14 PM	#7
viperswhip Minors (Single A) Join Date: Feb 2020 Posts: 58	I think the Devs overvalue the top 10 picks to keep us from abusing the AI. It is laughably easy to get other team's first round picks, just a 3rd or a 2nd a very mediocre player. I do find it easier to use 1st round picks to pick up the prospects I didn't get to pick in the draft the first time around.

01-19-2024, 01:51 AM	#8
fanat1k Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jul 2022 Posts: 27	I'll give you a very simple life hack. Wait for the draft, as soon as the team selects the player you want, immediately go to the trades and trade the player during the draft. It will cost significantly less.

03-09-2024, 04:13 PM	#9
BennyTheMarlin Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Hamden, CT Posts: 138	A quick update on how things went. I took fanat1k's advice and looked to trade for the #1 pick right after he was selected and I was able to pull it off at terms that predictably pricey but not unreasonably so. Despite a red-hot streak to close the season that dropped me from a likely #2 overall to #6, I managed to make this flip: My #6 overall this year Next year's 1st rounder Last year's 2nd rounder, a 2.5 to 3 star potential all-offense center A lower-tier D prospect (5th round, 1.5 star potential for my scouts, 2 star consensus) My taking on a bad contract, but for only one year and a player I liked and could afford Taking on the contract was what got them on board. I'll miss the center prospect that left, but in keeping the top prospect I mentioned before and getting his super-stud winger, I feel like I came out very nicely. Time will tell but this feels like the right move at the right time.

03-13-2024, 12:32 PM	#10
Scottababc Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 71	For the future: and this is Scummy (and worked on by the dev's to a good enough degree from prior iterations) it is FAR FAR easier to trade for a prospect right after they are picked during the draft as opposed to the early picks. For some guys it's still too difficult, usually if they have a talent over 10.00.