MLB 2023-24 Off season thread

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

It tells us that the importance of WAR is highly exaggerated.

LAA had 27.5 fWAR in 2023, compared to Texas with 48.5 (+21) and Houston with 42.4 (+14.9). They finished 17 wins back of those two teams.

Seems pretty accurate to me!

[TheMaus2]

if you put two generational talents around AAAA guys you wont reach the playoffs...

The Ohtani post-mortem that came out in Sports Illustrated where he asked about the Dodgers player development philosophy & farm system is pretty telling about what Ohtani himself thinks makes winning baseball, but I suppose it's more convenient to paint WAR as the scapegoat

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

LAA had 27.5 fWAR in 2023, compared to Texas with 48.5 (+21) and Houston with 42.4 (+14.9). They finished 17 wins back of those two teams.

Seems pretty accurate to me!

Didn't say accurate. Though how a measurement that has no standard method of calculation could possibly be called "accurate" is an item for another discussion.

What I said was the stat's importance is exaggerated.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Didn't say accurate. Though how a measurement that has no standard method of calculation could possibly be called "accurate" is an item for another discussion.

What I said was the stat's importance is exaggerated.

But how is the importance exaggerated? Replacing a 2-WAR player with an 8-WAR player means you will win ~6 more games.

On a broader note, it is impossible to ever compare any two baseball players and have an opinion on which player is better without using WAR. In order to determine if the Jays should trade Bo Bichette to the Padres straight-up for Michael King, you need to have a valuation for how many games you will win with Bichette and compare that to your valuation for how many games you will win with King instead. Doing that requires knowing how many games Bichette helps a team win relative to a given baseline, as well as how many games King helps a team win relative to the same baseline.

[Izz]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

On a broader note, it is impossible to ever compare any two baseball players and have an opinion on which player is better without using WAR. In order to determine if the Jays should trade Bo Bichette to the Padres straight-up for Michael King, you need to have a valuation for how many games you will win with Bichette and compare that to your valuation for how many games you will win with King instead. Doing that requires knowing how many games Bichette helps a team win relative to a given baseline, as well as how many games King helps a team win relative to the same baseline.

You forget the most important comparison/valuation of all: who has the more luscious hair?

[TheMaus2]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

On a broader note, it is impossible to ever compare any two baseball players and have an opinion on which player is better without using WAR.

WAR is a mighty useful tool but it is certainly not the only one you can use to compare players, and I think there's a long discussion to be had wrt comparing the WAR numbers of Pitchers & Position Players, lol.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

But how is the importance exaggerated? Replacing a 2-WAR player with an 8-WAR player means you will win ~6 more games.

Because math nerds act like it is the period on every baseball discussion's sentence. As I've said before, I give it credit for what it tries to do. But until there is a standard for how it is measured and how the elements in the formula are measured, it is an opinionated stat. It isn't a definitive yardstick.

[monkeyman576]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Because math nerds act like it is the period on every baseball discussion's sentence. As I've said before, I give it credit for what it tries to do. But until there is a standard for how it is measured and how the elements in the formula are measured, it is an opinionated stat. It isn't a definitive yardstick.

WAR is also highly useful for comparing careers and seasons across different era's. There aren't a lot of stats that do that as well as WAR.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

WAR is also highly useful for comparing careers and seasons across different era's. There aren't a lot of stats that do that as well as WAR.

How do you calculate the fielding/running metrics used in WAR for past players w/anything other than assumptions?

[monkeyman576]

Shockingly, Ohtani is deferring $680M of the $700M of his contract until after 2034.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...dgers-contract

Very creative on the Dodgers part, $700M will probably be worth half of that in 10 years.

[TheMaus2]

I'm being told any team could have Ohtani for $20m over 10 years, as long as they were willing to pay him $680m after... impressive deal, lets see if the commissioner's office/mlbpa certifies that contract

[monkeyman576]

Originally Posted by TheMaus2

I'm being told any team could have Ohtani for $20m over 10 years, as long as they were willing to pay him $680m after... impressive deal, lets see if the commissioner's office/mlbpa certifies that contract

As long as Ohtani agrees to it, why wouldn't they? Is there a reason he couldn't have signed for $2M if he wanted to? I'm just wondering how it makes sense financially for Ohtani, I mean several hundred million is nothing to sneeze at, but wouldn't have made more sense to take $50M/year up front from a team like the Blue Jays or Giants and he could invest the money?

[TheMaus2]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

As long as Ohtani agrees to it, why wouldn't they? Is there a reason he couldn't have signed for $2M if he wanted to? I'm just wondering how it makes sense financially for Ohtani, I mean several hundred million is nothing to sneeze at, but wouldn't have made more sense to take $50M/year up front from a team like the Blue Jays or Giants and he could invest the money?

In terms of pure dollar value, yes. But it opens up the Dodgers' coffers during Ohtani's tenure that allows them to get aggressive and acquire more talent. They still need starters this offseason and it helps the Dodgers' tax number. Think it's safe to say the Dodgers got a sweetheart deal because he knows he can compete in the playoffs there.

[monkeyman576]

$700M will be worth approimately $550M in 2034 according to a 3% inflation rate. Unless the Dodgers are allowed to put it in a CD or something.

[Cobra Mgr]

Whatever makes him happy. My prob with it if I'm Ohtani is, what is the guarantee your club spends the savings? As a player, my problem is other GM's & owners thinking I should do the same for the sake of the team. Which again, there is no guarantee they spend it, nor that they spend it wisely.

I would probably do it as Ohtani only if I was given input, at the least, or say-so, at best, in roster decisions.

[TheMaus2]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Whatever makes him happy. My prob with it if I'm Ohtani is, what is the guarantee your club spends the savings? As a player, my problem is other GM's & owners thinking I should do the same for the sake of the team. Which again, there is no guarantee they spend it, nor that they spend it wisely.

I would probably do it as Ohtani only if I was given input, at the least, or say-so, at best, in roster decisions.

I mean, I can't name a time when the Dodgers weren't operating with a payroll above the Luxury Tax under Guggenheim, so there is that. I do agree that this deferment plan is going to be used as a blackjack in future contract negotiations, and it should probably be revised in the next CBA

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

Shockingly, Ohtani is deferring $680M of the $700M of his contract until after 2034.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...dgers-contract

Very creative on the Dodgers part, $700M will probably be worth half of that in 10 years.

SOMEONE is rooting for a very low rate of inflation...

[monkeyman576]

Decade by decade inflation rate:
1980-1989: 5.9%
1990-1999: 3.1%
2000-2009: 2.6%
2010-2019: 1.7%
2020-2022: 4.6%

[Izz]

Apparently Ohtani's currently earning $50M+ a year in endorsements, so that might be another reason why he's happy to defer the majority of this contract until after retirement

[thehef]

Originally Posted by TheMaus2

I can't name a time when the Dodgers weren't operating with a payroll above the Luxury Tax under Guggenheim...

We also can't name a time under Guggenheim when the Dodgers didn't field a very high-quality roster. So I doubt Ohtani has concerns about the Dodgers suddenly becoming penny-pinchers.