Will We Ever See Deserving Teams In The World Series Again?

[Brad K]

The World Series starts Friday with the world championship to be decided in a seven game series between the two best teams in baseball... er... ahhh... 5th best team in the AL and 6th best team in the NL. Imagine the thrill of watching what should be the also ran consolation series.

Of course, the wise people who run baseball anticipated both the wannabees would be eliminated much earlier. After all, they're junk teams and on top of that the league stacked the deck against them.

They had to play an extra round while the really good teams with the really good players that fans really wanted to see got byes. (What type of business takes their best product off the shelf and tries to sell people something else?) But having to play an extra round and having to play on the road didn't do it. Just as it hasn't in the past. Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!

Its been known for decades that the better team has only a slight advantage in a seven game series; a near negligible one in shorter ones. And having the weaker teams play on the road and face high seeded teams doesn't change that much.

Additionally it was assumed byes would help the top seeds. But maybe not. Maybe they come back flat after a few days off. Their consistent absence from the later rounds could lead to that conclusion.

But think of the excitement! While star players on three 100+ win teams are sitting at home, we'll be able to watch a couple near second division clubs (does anyone remember that term?) with an average of 87 wins battle it out for the "world championship."

There is one bright spot though. Remember the DH? The player who was to bring more offense to the game? At least with the Phillies out we won't have to see a DH who is hitting below the Mendoza Line for $20 million a year.

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by Brad K

The World Series starts Friday with the world championship to be decided in a seven game series between the two best teams in baseball... er... ahhh... 5th best team in the AL and 6th best team in the NL. Imagine the thrill of watching what should be the also ran consolation series.

Of course, the wise people who run baseball anticipated both the wannabees would be eliminated much earlier. After all, they're junk teams and on top of that the league stacked the deck against them.

They had to play an extra round while the really good teams with the really good players that fans really wanted to see got byes. (What type of business takes their best product off the shelf and tries to sell people something else?) But having to play an extra round and having to play on the road didn't do it. Just as it hasn't in the past. Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!

Its been known for decades that the better team has only a slight advantage in a seven game series; a near negligible one in shorter ones. And having the weaker teams play on the road and face high seeded teams doesn't change that much.

Additionally it was assumed byes would help the top seeds. But maybe not. Maybe they come back flat after a few days off. Their consistent absence from the later rounds could lead to that conclusion.

But think of the excitement! While star players on three 100+ win teams are sitting at home, we'll be able to watch a couple near second division clubs (does anyone remember that term?) with an average of 87 wins battle it out for the "world championship."

There is one bright spot though. Remember the DH? The player who was to bring more offense to the game? At least with the Phillies out we won't have to see a DH who is hitting below the Mendoza Line for $20 million a year.

I am reminded by a quote from Herm Edwards....you know it.

[GeoWar]

Under today's MLB rules --

These are the TWO BEST TEAMS .

LOL--

[Cod]

How do you define "deserving teams"? Best record? If so, that's like saying the best hitter is the guy with the best batting average.

Also, fun fact, Mario Mendoza's career batting average was .215 and we only call .200 the Mendoza Line because George Brett made a stupid comment during an interview.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Additionally it was assumed byes would help the top seeds. But maybe not. Maybe they come back flat after a few days off. Their consistent absence from the later rounds could lead to that conclusion.

Teams getting the long layoff are a coin toss to win the series, as I have documented elsewhere.

However, that may be an MLB thing. In the KBO, with its staggered playoff system, the first place team gets a long layoff, sitting out the first three rounds (two rounds prior to 2015) of the playoffs. Yet the first-place finisher has won 19 of the 22 Korean Series played from 2001 onward. (Perhaps the more stretched out regular season schedule plays a role, as teams only play six games per week.)

[thehef]

Surely, at some point, analytics will solve the dilemma of the best regular season teams being disadvantaged by the rhythm-and-routine-killing layoffs at the beginning of the postseason.

[Cobra Mgr]

There is a set way for people to win the title. This isn't college football, figure skating, gymnastics, diving or the Miss America contest. A set criteria to win it on the field & not based on personal taste or convincing one of the communist bloc judges to break from their agreement to show favoritism to anyone not aligned w/NATO.

Thank goodness the MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL & other real sports don't decide their champion like Dancing w/the Stars.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Thank goodness the MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL & other real sports don't decide their champion like Dancing w/the Stars.

Not yet, at any rate.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Cod

How do you define "deserving teams"? Best record? If so, that's like saying the best hitter is the guy with the best batting average.

Actually it's not like that at all. It has been known for a long time that batting average is a poor measure offensive contribution. However winning is a direct measure of how good a team is particularly with the everyone plays everyone schedule.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Thank goodness the MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL & other real sports don't decide their champion like Dancing w/the Stars.

Well at least in Dancing With The Stars once they're eliminated they're eliminated. The sports you mentioned eliminate teams and then bring them back. What's the point of having an objective system if they're going to undercut it like this?

[Cod]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Actually it's not like that at all. It has been known for a long time that batting average is a poor measure offensive contribution. However winning is a direct measure of how good a team is particularly with the everyone plays everyone schedule.

That would only be true if every team played everyone the same number of times with an even home/away split (like EPL). Strength of schedule is still a huge thing in MLB. For example, the Dodgers and Braves had the third and fifth easiest schedule in 2023; meanwhile the DBacks had the ninth hardest according to one source. So I ask, how is win-loss record a good barometer for the most deserving team?

Example source: http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/str...f-schedule.php

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Cod

That would only be true if every team played everyone the same number of times with an even home/away split (like EPL).

It is possible to compare win-loss records between divisions with a good degree of statistical reliability provided enough games were played between the divisions.

There was a sports research paper that looked at that question, and concluded the minimum number of interdivisional games that would be necessary from the total schedule for such cross-division comparison. However, this was only for two-division leagues.

I'm sure I have that paper backed up somewhere . . .

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

It is possible to compare win-loss records between divisions with a good degree of statistical reliability provided enough games were played between the divisions.

There was a sports research paper that looked at that question, and concluded the minimum number of interdivisional games that would be necessary from the total schedule for such cross-division comparison. However, this was only for two-division leagues.

I'm sure I have that paper backed up somewhere . . .

Can I ask, what is your profession?

[monkeyman576]

The deserving team is the one that wins in the playoffs.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

The deserving team is the one that wins in the playoffs.

Cool. Then let's let everyone in and what will you say if the A's win.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Cod

That would only be true if every team played everyone the same number of times with an even home/away split (like EPL). Strength of schedule is still a huge thing in MLB.

"Still" a huge thing? Considering how long baseball has existed, it's a recent thing. For decades strength of schedule wasn't an issue at all It's entirely a problem created by thoughtless expansion, bad division alignment, and the crazy idea that two teams in the same state are natural rivals, followed by the unproven idea more people will show up to see teams they don't know from the other league rather than teams they know from their own league.

Through the 24 team era it's true the AL or the NL might have been stronger but they were close to the same and within each league the competition was equal.

Whatever slight differences exist today aren't enough to justify the difference between the 90 and 84 win teams we're looking at and three teams with 100 or more wins sitting at home.

At this point the fix is the AL 2 x 8, the NL 2 x 7 (there's a division favored 162 game schedule available with equal opponents available for both). Division winners only.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Can I ask, what is your profession?

How is that relevant? What I care about is whether his posts make sense, not what he does for a living.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by Cobra Mgr

Can I ask, what is your profession?

Professional time-waster.

Doesn't pay well, regrettably.

Originally Posted by Brad K

How is that relevant? What I care about is whether his posts make sense, not what he does for a living.

I'm pretty sure the question was asked in jest, as in, how do I manage to find, and have the time to find, such often obscure, arcane information.

[monkeyman576]

Having more teams in the playoffs is a fine way to compensate for a lack of a salary cap.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

Having more teams in the playoffs is a fine way to compensate for a lack of a salary cap.

Some have argued that the luxury tax has functioned well as a de facto soft salary cap.